In addition to three high quality main events, UFC 51 is stacked with some excellent undercard match-ups. From the return of Phil Baroni to the debut of James Irvin, every fight has some kind of intriguing storyline behind it. Let's take a quick look at each fight.

Phil Baroni vs. Pete Sell

 Zuffa must be cursing Robbie Lawler.  His withdrawal from the highly anticipated ‘Loser Leaves Town’ showdown with Baroni has left them with a major gap to fill, and Pete ‘Drago’ Sell is the man they’ve turned to.  Er, who?  Well, exactly.  Sell wouldn’t have been at the top of most fans’ 185 pounders they wanted to see against Baroni list, but he could be the perfect man for the job.  A 22-year-old BJJ stylist, the muscular Sell does have some excellent teachers in Renzo Gracie, Matt Serra and Ricardo Almeida but with a 5-0 career record, none of which were on a major show, lacks big fight experience.  So the stage is set for an impressive Baroni blast-out that will get his ailing career back on track, and book a date with fellow motor-mouthed banger Joe Riggs?  Well, maybe not.  Odd things have been happening in the UFC lately.  Cesar Gracie star Nick Diaz impressively KO’ed Lawler, Diaz’s team mate David Terrell blitzed Matt Lindland in less than 25 seconds, something Baroni never came close to doing in his 25 minutes with ‘The Law,’ and BJJ’er Travis Lutter sparked out kickboxer Marvin Eastman.  The same thing could happen again.  It could, but I’d bet against it. 

 For all his shortcomings, Baroni can take a shot and is a better stand-up brawler than Lawler, Lindland or Eastman.  With a decent grounding in freestyle wrestling and plenty of training with Zuffa’s in-house submission guru Marc Laimon, Baroni should be able to defend well enough to keep this fight on his terms, standing and swinging.  But, as ever with the ‘New York Bad Ass’ there are a lot of variables.  What if Sell comes in with a game plan as good as Evan Tanner’s for the Baroni rematch, a fight where Baroni simply looked confused and demoralised almost from the outset?  What kind of shape will Baroni be in?  Will he be the slimmed down Baroni who lost to Tanner the second time or the juiced up bodybuilder type who gassed out early in the first Tanner match?  Will Baroni underestimate Sell?  Will Baroni lose his mind again and smack the referee?  OK, the last one is unlikely but the rest are all relevant issues and should be the key to this fight.  Very little is expected of Sell, and Baroni is the one feeling the pressure here.  He’s signed a one fight deal and this is probably his last chance to show he’s worthy of all the time Zuffa have spent trying to sell him as a superstar.  Will he show that?  No, because Baroni is just not capable of being what Zuffa want him to be.  Nevertheless, he is capable of winning this fight, and doing it in style.

PREDICTION: Baroni by TKO, in the opening two minutes of the first round.
 
  
David Loiseau vs. Joe Riggs

 With all the hype surrounding the three main fights it’s easy to forget just how much potential some of the match-ups at UFC 51 have, and this could well be the best of the lot.  Riggs has come a long, long way since his debut as a blubbery 260-pound brawler.  He’s dropped a massive amount of flab and developed a reputation as one of the hardest hitting fighters on the American scene.  He’s also in the Baroni and Frank Trigg category when it comes to self promotion, and his fight with Loiseau is his chance to show he genuinely belongs in the UFC.  Despite holding a record of 21-5, Riggs hasn’t really beaten anyone of major significance.  His biggest win really came in his UFC debut against well-regarded submission specialist Joe Doerksen.  That was certainly an impressive win but it’s really the only one on his resume.  Riggs certainly loves a scrap, fighting 9 times in 2004.  He’s won his last 8 contests, all of them inside the distance and the majority by KO.  It is difficult to read too much into what Riggs did earlier in his career when he was a lot fatter.  Riggs is a different, more committed, more skilled fighter these days but two fairly recent losses to Alex Stiebling (January 2004, by triangle choke) and Rodney Faverous (KO’ed by a knee almost two years ago) might be instructive. 

 ‘The Crow’ is a very different fighter.  A well-rounded veteran of the Montreal based UCC (since renamed TKO) events, Loiseau holds some impressive victories over a selction of highly rated middleweights.  He’s KO’ed Mark Weir, stopped Tony Fryklund (on a truly horrific cut) and beaten Doerksen and Curtis Stout.  Loiseau’s 11-4 record also shows losses to Jeremy Horn, with a quick guillotine choke and to Jorge Rivera in a gruelling battle at UFC 44. 

 This is a fascinating fight.  Can Loiseau cope with Rigg’s power?  Can Riggs really step up and take on such a well-rounded competitor who has faced better opposition?  A lot of people are expecting Riggs to run through Loiseau and set up a fight Zuffa would dearly love to book, a battle of the big mouthed bangers against Baroni.  Loiseau is certainly the underdog and Riggs has more momentum but ‘The Crow’ might, if he can take Riggs’ opening barrage, be able to pull off the upset.

PREDICTION: Loiseau by submission late in the second round.   

James Irvin vs. Mike Kyle

 An intriguing heavyweight clash pits two well-sculpted power punchers against each other.  Irvin is something of an unknown quantity, a California native with a spotless 7-0 tally, (six wins by KO/TKO and one by submission) mostly amassed on the Gladiator Challenge circuit.  His record is certainly impressive, and UFC matchmaker Joe Silva has an impressive track record of eyeing up new talent, but a closer examination reveals a few worries.  Irvin’s opponents have a combined record of 22-19.  Moreover, these records weren’t exactly compiled on major shows against elite opposition.  Irvin could well be seriously, and painfully exposed on his move up to a higher level.

  Luckily for him, fellow Californian Kyle isn’t exactly an elite competitor.  He certainly has some skills, is brutally strong and has some heavy, heavy hands but he lacks maturity and has lost every time he’s been given a genuinely stiff test.  His 7-3 career tally features losses to Justin Eilers, Paul Buentello and Daniel Bobish and questions do need to be asked about his ability to take a decent shot.  His most notable win was against the one and only Wes Sims in a controversial match at UFC 47.  Now, whether Kyle really did try chomping on Sims’ pectoral is a little irrelevant since his post-fight comment “he’s a dirty bastard anyways” ensured he’d be seen as the bad guy.  Perhaps this is all a finely crafted ploy by Kyle to get over as the new hardman of the UFC, a no nonsense brawler with a bad attitude who takes no crap and kicks some ass.  Of course, it’s hard to do that when you get whacked out in your next outing and act like a spoilt child afterwards. 

 Kyle has certainly faced better opposition and might be considered the favourite against someone so untested.  But since every UFC show seems to feature an upset or two, and I’d rather see Kyle lose, I’ll go the opposite way as much in hope as in expectation.

PREDICTION: Irvin by KO (please), midway through the first round. 

Justin Eilers vs. Paul Buentello

 Another interesting heavyweight fight features two men who hardly fit the mould of a modern UFC big man.  Well, superficially at least.  In reality, both men are good fighters and this could be an explosive match.  While Buentello really doesn’t have the kind of ‘look’ Zuffa seem to favour, he is an experienced campaigner with a 16-7 record.  Getting his MMA start in the unfairly forgotten USWF (Unified Shoot Wrestling Federation), the Amarillo, Texas based company that got Evan Tanner and Heath Herring started, Buentello has been around.  A former King of the Cage Heavyweight Champion he should provide some stiff resistance to Zuffa’s latest ‘everyman’ heavyweight brawler.  Buentello has been in there with some good fighters, but generally comes out on the losing end.  He’s been choked out by Tanner, kneebarred by Ricco Rodriguez and lost (avenged in a rematch) to the talented but wayward Bobby Hoffman. 

 Interestingly enough, Buentello also owns a KO victory over Mike Kyle, the man Eilers smashed up in his UFC debut.  That UFC 49 victory, over his former college roommate and long time friend saw the gap-toothed Miletich student hailed as the promotion’s new crowd pleasing, heavy hitting big man.  Zuffa seem to be perennially searching for someone to fill the old Tank Abbott role and after Abbott himself flopped miserably in his worthless three-fight comeback, and Wesley ‘Cabbage’ Correira has clearly fallen out of favour, it looks like Eilers is their latest candidate.  In fact, Eilers, now 9-2 has some history with the bizarrely tattooed, cement-headed Hawaiian.  Eilers dropped a split decision to ‘Cabbage’ at Superbrawl 30 in June 2003, a verdict regarded by more than a few observers as a severe case of hometown judging.  Since then Eilers has amassed a six fight winning streak, while Buentello is on a four fight roll himself. 

 Somebody has to lose and I’m going for Buentello.  Eilers is just too heavy handed and as a member of one of the finest camps in the business should be very well prepared for this one.  Buentello is certainly no joke but I’m expecting Eilers to take this one convincingly. 

PREDICTION: Eilers by TKO, late in the first round.

Nick Diaz vs. Drew Fickett

 Arrogant Cesar Gracie student Diaz comes into this fight as a heavy favourite, but in typical Joe Silva style, his opponent will put up some serious resistance to the man who appears to be one of Zuffa’s brightest young stars.  Fickett, a team mate of middleweight banger Joe Riggs, wrestled throughout high school and has an amateur boxing record of 9-1.  He’s also done well in BJJ competition in his home state of Arizona, and with a record of 20-2 he has more MMA experience, albeit at a lower level, than Diaz.  His only losses have been against bigger men, Edwin Dewees, who Fickett has also beaten, and Landon Showalter, recently dispatched by Matt Lindland.  Since the Showalter defeat in August 2003, Fickett has won eight straight contests, including a decision win over Dennis Hallman. 

 Diaz though is coming off an MMA loss, an extremely close split decision to Karo Parisyan at UFC 49.  Still, since then he has beaten highly respected Brazilian grappler Jorge ‘Maccaco’ Patino in no-Gi BJJ competition, a very impressive achievement.  Prior to the Parisyan fight Diaz made a major impact by spectacularly KO’ing Robbie Lawler in one of 2004’s most dramatic fights, and, in his first UFC outing he caught nemesis Jeremy Jackson (who Diaz is now 2-1 against) with a beautiful armbar in another cracking fight.

 This could be a tough fight for Diaz, and as usual for him, it should be very, very entertaining.  Fickett, while not very well known is certainly a capable fighter and this is his big chance.  However, Diaz is just too talented, too well rounded and should get his UFC career back on track with a win in this one.

PREDICTION: Diaz by submission, early in the second round.

 
Karo Parisyan vs. Chris Lytle

 Karo ‘The Heat’ Parisyan, an Armenian American with an excellent Judo background is one of Zuffa’s top young welterweights.  Therefore, it’s a little disappointing that his match-up with ‘Lights Out’ Lytle is scheduled as a preliminary fight and may not even be properly seen until UFC 51 appears on DVD.  Like David Terrell, Parisyan actually debuted back in 1999.  Things looked very good for him early on, as he knocked off a six fight winning streak before running into freestyle wrestling powerhouse Sean Sherk, not once but twice.  Parisyan dropped both fights, one of them by decision, to one of the sports most underemployed, under appreciated talents.  ‘The Heat’ rebounded well though, winning three more fights before getting his UFC call-up. 

 Parisyan looked incredible in his UFC 44 debut, submitting Dave Strasser with a stunning rolling Kimura armlock.  At UFC 46 Parisyan dropped a decision to another of Zuffa’s hottest young welterweights, Georges St. Pierre.  Once more Parisyan rebounded from a tough loss, this time beating veteran entertainer Shonie Carter at WEC 10.  On his return to the UFC Parisyan squeaked past Diaz and now the Gene LeBelle protégé faces Indiana fireman and part time pro boxer and MMA fighter, Chris Lytle.

 Lytle is an experienced, but mediocre looking 16-10-5.  However, he is on a four fight winning streak, with all four won with an impressive variety of chokes against capable fighters.  Pete Spratt, Tiki Ghosn, Ronald Jhun and JT Taylor have all been tapped out by ‘Lights Out’ since he dropped a unanimous decision to Robbie Lawler at UFC 45.  Looking at Lytle’s record he also holds impressive wins over Aaron Riley and Kazuo Misaki.  Some of his more notable losses were against Nick Diaz, Dave Menne and Shonie Carter.  He’s also drawn with Ikuhisa Minowa and Osami Shibuya. 

 This is an extremely close fight.  Parisyan is probably the more dynamic fighter and the man with a better shot at future stardom but Lytle is very solid, very well rounded and is probably on the best winning run of his career.  I would not be surprised to see an upset in this one.

PREDICTION: Lytle by split decision.

The first part of this article can be found here.

Feel free to discuss this article and your predictions here. 

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