On February 5th, just one day before the NFL presents the biggest annual sporting event in the world, Zuffa are hoping to take advantage of all the masses flocking to Las Vegas for Superbowl weekend.  UFC 51: Super Saturday takes place at the Mandalay Bay Casino and Events Centre and the promotion have assembled an excellent card.  With three fights that could potentially headline any UFC and six intriguing undercard fights, this really does have the potential to be one of the best UFC shows ever.  So how do the fighters match up and what might happen?  In this, and the next article we will look at each fight and offer some predictions.  Let us start with those main events first and work on down the card.

Tito Ortiz vs. Vitor Belfort

 It’s ‘do or die’ time for Tito, and Vitor for that matter.  Both fallen Light Heavyweight stars have been beaten by Chuck Liddell (a fairly close 2002 decision loss for Vitor and an unequivocal knockout in 2004 for Tito) and thoroughly dominated by Randy Couture.  They sport strikingly similar records, 11-4 for Ortiz and 12-4 for Belfort.  Both men have been generally considered at or near the top of the sport for several years and both are former poster boys for the promotion; Belfort as a teenager in the chaotic SEG years and Ortiz in the late SEG/early Zuffa period.  Both men also hold a win over Wanderlei Silva.  Incidentally, both are also on the final fight of their UFC contracts.  An impressive showing here could send their relative market values skywards.  Win or lose, both are free agents after February 5th and while Zuffa will be expected to try and renew their relationship with the winner, the loser could end up far richer if K-1 or Pride come calling.

 I have to say, the continual hype that surrounds Belfort really mystifies me.  Exactly how much time has to pass before fans and pundits start to realise they are blindly parroting clichés and outdated information?  Sportsbook.com opened up with Ortiz as the underdog.  Perhaps they should have offered some numbers for when the first person, almost certainly Joe ‘kid in a sweetshop’ Rogan, utters the dreaded three words, ‘the old Vitor’.  Let’s take a look at Belfort’s career and see exactly how his teenage exploits have any bearing on this match-up. 

 Belfort truly was an awesome young talent.  He laid to waste a string of bigger, older heavyweights in Jon Hess, Tra Telligman, Scott Ferrozzo and Tank Abbott.  Using the fastest hands in the business to stunning efficiency Belfort was already the most hyped fighter on the planet.  Tales soon surfaced of him representing Brazil in boxing at the 2000 Olympics.  Total fiction of course but it sounded nice.  To be fair, Belfort wouldn’t have been the subject of such lavish praise if he wasn’t producing incredible results, but then he ran into Randy Couture for the first time.  Weakened by a stomach virus, Belfort was manhandled and even out-punched by the ‘old, one dimensional wrestler’.  Hitting the comeback trail, Belfort, again claiming illness, was uncharacteristically subdued in beating the aged Joe Charles.  Ten months later, at UFC Brazil in October 1998 Belfort was ‘back’ as he ran through Wanderlei Silva.  Then, after leaving UFC for a better offer from Pride, well then it all went a bit wrong.

 Belfort’s only outing in 1999 was his humiliating loss to Kazushi Sakuraba.  Yes, Belfort broke his hand early but his sheer passivity in that fight made a mockery of pre-fight claims that he would destroy the smaller Japanese fighter.  In fact this fights content and result was so unbelievable to Belfort’s most deluded apologists they’ve been crying ‘work’ ever since.  This theory of course neatly ignores the fact that nobody in his or her right mind would ‘work’ such a dull fight. 

 Following this severe setback, and some time off to heal his hand injuries, Belfort returned in 2000 and decisioned Dutch nutter Gilbert Yvel, and Sakuraba’s training partner Daijiro Matsui.  The next year brought two more fights, a submission win against an overmatched Bobby Southworth and a rather fortunate decision victory over Heath Herring. 

 After this less than spectacular run with Pride, Belfort returned to the US and dropped an entertaining decision to Chuck Liddell at UFC 37.5 in June 2002.  A year later, he returned and impressively destroyed Marvin Eastman, prompting all the ‘old Vitor’ talk.  Certainly, it had been a difficult couple of years, both in his personal and professional life, but realistically a quick win over a much smaller King of the Cage fighter hardly presaged the resurgence of a genuine superstar.  Nevertheless, after Randy Couture battered both Liddell and Ortiz, Belfort was suddenly in line for a rematch and a title shot. 

 And so, in January 2004 Belfort stepped into the Octagon with the evergreen warrior and pulled off that rarest of things.  A genuine fluke.  His punch grazed Couture’s eyelids and opened up two hideous cuts.  Given the tragic atmosphere surrounding that fight, (Belfort’s sister disappeared and remains missing, over a year later) it was easy to forgive his wild celebration of what was in reality, no real achievement at all.  What is less easy to understand or forgive is Belfort’s conduct before during and after the August rematch.  Looking fleshy, it was clear he hadn’t bothered training properly.  During the fight, he blatantly tried to gouge one of Couture’s eyes while trapped in a clinch.  Then, after three painfully one-sided rounds, the fight was called off with Belfort leaking blood like a bit part actor in a Tarantino movie.  Belfort’s reaction?  He whined about the accidental headbutt that originally busted him open, ignoring the fact he’d been brutally punched and elbowed afterwards, forcing that cut to open further and causing at least one more.  Worse, he was still complaining weeks later, this time of hometown refereeing and the way Zuffa were blatantly favouring the American fighter.

 So, looking at Belfort’s career it looks as though ‘the old Vitor’ stuff is a load of old nonsense.  Belfort hasn’t used his vaunted hand speed and power to dispatch an opponent since 1998 (it was a knee that did the real damage against Eastman).  That’s right, 1998.  That’s a little over seven years.  It’s not that his striking skills are negligible, they certainly aren’t but people really need to get some perspective on this.  What of Belfort’s other attributes?  In their third fight Couture did have trouble taking him down, but once on the mat Belfort showed little defensive skill and never looked likely to mount any offence from his back either.  In fact, Belfort’s BJJ skills have always seemed a little uninspired.  He fought well against Liddell but other than that win over Eastman his last truly impressive victory was against Silva, again, over seven years ago.  If ‘the old Vitor’ has shown up only once in the last seven years, why would he turn up now?  Particularly as Belfort has had so many injury problems with those hands.  Still, the only people to have actually beaten him are Couture, Sakuraba and Liddell.  Can Ortiz join that exclusive club?

 Like Belfort, Tito Ortiz has received more than his share of outrageous hype.  Debuting in 1997 as a brash, one-dimensional freestyle wrestler who trained with Tank Abbott and his thugs, Ortiz showed potential early.  Facing seasoned Lion’s Den and Pancrase veteran Guy Mezger, Ortiz was doing very well until walking straight into a guillotine choke.  A couple of years later, he was back with far more training and an even higher opinion of his own abilities.  He impressively manhandled Jerry Bohlander, before giving Mezger a beating in a rematch and then infamously pulled on his ‘Gay Mezger is my Bitch’ t-shirt.  Notoriously short-tempered Lion’s Den supremo Ken Shamrock was not impressed and had to be physically restrained, steam pouring from his ears like a cartoon character, from clambering over the octagon and going after Tito.  In his next fight, a UFC 22 challenge for Frank Shamrock’s Light Heavyweight title, Ortiz was again very impressive in one of the best fights in the sport’s short history.  Ortiz dominated most of the way, showing some great technique and power but eventually gassed out, allowing the smarter, better prepared, more experienced fighter to pull off a dramatic victory.
 
 Such a setback could have been a crushing defeat for a young fighter but Ortiz rebounded and rattled off an impressive six fight winning streak.  First came his decision victory over the terrifying Wanderlei Silva, an efficient if cautious and dull performance, to win the belt Frank vacated.  He then destroyed Pancrase star Yuki Kondo, almost pulling his head off with a headlock/choke, slammed Evan Tanner into unconsciousness early, and followed this up by bashing Elvis Sinosic for another quick stoppage win.  Then in the first show for new owners Zuffa he was lined up to face Belfort at UFC 33.  However, due to a bizarre training injury (Belfort managed to put his arm through a window during a grappling training session, severely cutting himself) he faced substitute Vladimir Matyushenko.  The fight was a total snore fest but Ortiz clearly outwrestled a man with far better wrestling credentials and won each of the five rounds. 

 A serious knee injury then kept Ortiz out for over a year but his return was well worth the wait.  At UFC 40 in November 2002, he seemingly settled his issue with Ken Shamrock, pounding on his old foe almost at will for a full three rounds until Shamrock finally accepted the inevitable and quit on his stool.  This, in the highest grossing, best promoted UFC show ever should have made him a superstar, but there was a little problem; former training partner Chuck Liddell.  Ortiz continually danced around the issue of fighting ‘The Iceman’, claiming a friend’s agreement never to fight (something Liddell has always denied), injuries (Ortiz did badly injure a hand on Shamrock’s face), even an ‘entertainment commitment’ in what appeared to be a long-running effort to avoid fighting him. 

 Effectively stripped of his Light Heavyweight title, it went up for grabs as an ‘Interim’ championship.  Couture swept Liddell aside and the showdown was set for UFC 44, a showdown that ended with Ortiz, spanked (literally and figuratively) and in tears.  Couture dominated all five rounds and humiliated the younger man as he settled the ‘Interim’ nonsense very decisively.  Fired up by this and by all the talk of his supposed cowardice, Ortiz finally agreed to fight Liddell, and was knocked out early in the second round.  Things were suddenly looking bad for Ortiz, with fickle fans and pundits falling over themselves to get off his bandwagon.  Zuffa then came up with a scheme to revive the fortunes of one of their few real drawing cards.  Much to the annoyance of hardcore UFC fans but the grudging admiration of people who really understand how to build up a talented fighter and turn him into a real drawing card, they went back to the Lion’s Den feud.  Ortiz would face Mezger again, thereby giving him an almost guaranteed, and much needed win, as well as setting up a rematch with Ken Shamrock.  Again, a late injury robbed Ortiz of a potentially big fight (‘big’ in the sense of what it could lead to later) as Mezger pulled out and unknown French Canadian striker, Patrick Cote stepped in.  Ortiz won their fight but the manner in which he did so, a boring, always predictable decision, left him an even more diminished figure than before the fight started.  Fully aware of this he apologised to his fans and promised a more entertaining showing next time.  So, can he deliver on his promise?

 In a word, yes.  Unless he decides to stand and trade with Belfort (the Brazilian’s striking skills are much exaggerated but he’s still a good puncher), a strategy that would likely make Ortiz the stupidest fighter in history, he should be able to win, as long as he keeps his head and sticks to a sensible game plan.  In addition, Ortiz now has his first win back (over Cote) under his belt so can afford to loosen up a little and concentrate on winning AND looking good along the way.  Ortiz is physically stronger and a far better wrestler and that should be the key to this fight.  He might have trouble taking Belfort down at first but he will get him down and from there he should be able to punish him enough to grind out a victory, most likely from a cut, in a fight that won’t stray far from the fence.  Belfort certainly has a very good chance though.  He’s a gifted fighter and Tito was, briefly, dropped by punches from Ken Shamrock and Cote.  Moreover, the way Ortiz seemed to freeze when Liddell landed a good shot, allowing him to tee off at will is not a good sign either.  However, Belfort’s third fight with Couture should have demonstrated perfectly to Ortiz just how to approach this match. 

 Despite his split from long-time trainer Colin Oyama, Ortiz has been training with some high quality fighters in the past year or so, including Frank Shamrock, Couture and old buddy Ricco Rodriguez.  Belfort has been training with some great fighters too, preparing for this one with the Brazilian Top Team.  Neither man can later pretend they were unprepared.  Ortiz, who has been far more consistent and impressive in the past 5 years or so should win this fight and that could of course, free Belfort up for a possible spot in Pride’s Middleweight Grand Prix or a lucrative deal with K-1. 

 And one last thing, if the MMA betting sites still have Tito as the underdog when you read this, I’d sign up and throw some money down on the mouthy Californian.

PREDICTION: Ortiz by unanimous decision.         

                  
Tim Sylvia vs. Andrei Arlovski

 Not content with going through all that silly ‘Interim’ title stuff in 2003 Zuffa are at it again, this time with the Heavyweight belt.  Thanks to Frank Mir’s motorcycle crash, former champion Tim Sylvia and Belarusian beast Andrei Arlovski get a shot at a (sort of) UFC title.  Speaking of Mir, his employers really should have had a word with him about risking his health doing pointlessly dangerous things as soon as he won the title.  After al,l this is a company that’s suffered more than it’s share of bad luck concerning it’s belts so you’d think they would have impressed on their ‘Chosen One’ the need to be a little careful.  Despite its spurious title status this should be a cracking fight, though it is not, as I’m sure Joe Rogan will repeatedly hyperbolize, a ‘dream fight.’  Dream fights are events like Couture-Silva.  This is ‘merely’ one of the best heavyweight matches the UFC can book.  Moreover, it’s possibly the hardest fight on this show to offer a prediction on.  Both men have serious knockout power; both are strong, aggressive and use their physical attributes well.  In addition, both are coming back from injuries (Sylvia’s arm, broken by Mir and Arlovski’s hand, broken by ‘Cabbage’ Correira’s head) to face each other in a fight originally scheduled for the real title at UFC 47.

 After running up an impressive winning streak on the Extreme Challenge and Superbrawl circuits Sylvia, now 16-1, or 19-1 if you take Zuffa’s figures, certainly has an impressive record.  However, Sylvia’s 12 opponents debuting with UFC have a combined record of 56-43 and include the likes of Greg Wikan (11-11), Gabe Beauperthy (2-7) and Ben Rothwell (12-4 but with his biggest wins coming against Kerry Schall and Jonathon Wiezoreck).  Hardly stellar opposition.  Still, every fight is a learning experience and by the time Sylvia stepped in to the octagon against Wesley ‘Cabbage’ Correira he’d certainly learned a lot.  Sylvia was very impressive in his UFC debut, picking ‘Cabbage’ apart with hard, accurate punches in a brutally efficient display.  Only once was Sylvia in trouble, a few seconds where he was stung by a flurry from the obstinate Hawaiian, but that soon passed and he went back to his patiently effective game plan.  Impressive as that was it was something of a surprise when Zuffa gave him a shot at Ricco Rodriguez’ Heavyweight title.  Three minutes into the match, Sylvia blasted the flabby, under prepared champion with a perfect shot and took his belt.  Sylvia was again dominant in his only defence, easily battering fellow giant Gan McGee.

 Then, well, then Sylvia did something very, very stupid.  Taking steroids to help improve your physique is one thing when you’re an up and coming fighter looking to get noticed but doing it as the champion, when you’re subject to fairly stringent drug testing is another.  One is unfair but understandable, the other is mind-bogglingly stupid.  Still, when caught, Sylvia took his punishment like a man and admitted his guilt.  His belated honesty won him some brownie points with Zuffa and once he’d finally got those pesky ‘anabolic agents’ (as Dana White’s said in his attempt not to say the dreaded word S-T-E-R-O-I-D-S on pay-per-view) out of his system, Sylvia was booked against Mir for the vacant title.  Though less than a minute into the fight, Sylvia, having elected to take Mir down (a highly questionable tactic), had his arm broken in a gruesomely unforgettable way by Mir’s armbar.  Amazingly, he was back in action just six months later, giving everyone’s favourite fighting clown Wes Sims a quick beating in Hawaii.  Still, Arlovski is a very different fighter to the ridiculous ‘Project’.

 Arlovski (6-3) started out in Russia for the M-1 promotion, losing by KO and winning a couple of fights against Russian and Dutch opposition before heading to the US to make his UFC debut against Aaron Brink back in November 2000.  Handily winning that one with an armbar he then faced Rodriguez and, nine months later, Pedro Rizzo.  Arlovski lost both, being pounded on by Ricco and KO’ed in style by Rizzo after a stand-up war.  Since then Arlovski has been unstoppable, smashing Ian Freeman, Vladimir Matyushenko and ‘Cabbage’ to pieces in a combined time of less than 10 minutes.

 So how do Sylvia and Arlovski match up?  Sylvia, as usual has a size advantage, at 6’8” and is likely to be bang on the upper weight limit of 265.  Most importantly, he uses that size and his long reach very well.  Arlovski is no small man himself though, at 6’3” and a chiselled 240.  Whenever a fighter looks the way Sylvia does people start to ask questions about their stamina but the big man has gone the distance in the past, and has fought in a couple of one-night tournaments so, as with fellow former UFC champion and steroid user Josh Barnett, looks can be very deceptive.  A bigger question is about Arlovski’s ability to take a shot, he’s been cleanly KO’ed twice before, once by the unremarkable Viacheslav Datsik and once by the infuriating but extremely talented Rizzo.  Sylvia’s chin has barely been tested but it seems likely he can take Arlovski’s shots better than the European can take his.  Both men love to stand and strike but as Sylvia tried to take Mir down, he’s clearly unafraid of fighting on the ground, though that disaster may have made him a little more cautious.  Arlovski has submission skills and a good Sambo pedigree so if they go to the ground Sylvia could find himself in trouble.  Still, Sylvia, as a member of the famed Miletich camp, has some excellent training partners and one of the best trainers in the business to prepare him for any eventuality.  It’s hard to pick against a fighter like Arlovski, an ever maturing competitor, with so much on his side – size, youth, striking power and technique, strong submission skills and aggression.  But Sylvia is a very, very good fighter.  This one is likely to end suddenly and brutally and while I’m a big Arlovski fan I think Sylvia will have a little too much and win his second UFC title (sort of), but he’s going to have the fight of his life along the way.

PREDICTION: Sylvia by TKO, early in the second round.    

Evan Tanner vs. David Terrell

 This fight, to finally determine a new UFC Middleweight Champion, a belt that has been in limbo since about 1859, is also worthy of main event status.  At UFC 50 a similar match-up for the Welterweight belt ended in a victory for the more seasoned veteran when Matt Hughes armbarred Georges St. Pierre.  In that fight, it seemed as though the young, rising star had been thrown to the wolves a little too soon.  The same thing could easily happen here as Terrell, with just six professional fights, and only 24 seconds of UFC experience faces a tough, resourceful 30 fight veteran.

 Terrell, a student of Cesar Gracie who trains with such talented fighters as Gil Castillo, Nick Diaz and Jake Shields actually made his pro debut back in 1999, dropping a decision to Lion’s Den veteran Vernon White.  Since then he’s put together a five fight winning streak, but taken five years to do so.  In 2000 he beat King of the Cage regular Joey Villasenor.  The following year Terrell beat the capable Marcos DaSilva.  After an almost three year layoff, he turned up in Pancrase for a December 2003 fight with talented mid-carder Yuki Sasaki.  Terrell looked impressive and blasted Sasaki out early in the second round.  He followed this up three months later with a first round submission win over the company’s elder statesman, 70 fight veteran Osami Shibuya.  Then came his UFC debut, a stunning 24 second KO of UFC’s top middleweight, Matt Lindland. 

 Acting with almost indecent haste Zuffa began working on a fight to determine a new champion.  It’s no secret Zuffa were always ambivalent towards ‘The Law’ feeling, mistakenly, that his style and look precluded him from being a marketable titleholder.  Because, obviously a great fighter and winner of an Olympic silver medal, who was probably the company’s most entertaining interview aside from Ken Shamrock, couldn’t possibly be marketable could he?  With Lindland out of the way, they were suddenly and conveniently ready to crown a successor to former titleholder Murilo Bustamante.  The whole affair really says more about the limitations of Zuffa’s marketing and promotional skills than it does about Lindland’s shortcomings.  Anyway, back to the fight.

 Evan Tanner boasts one of the sport’s better records, with an impressive tally of 27-3.  Although every source seems to have it slightly differently.  Zuffa list him at 32-4, while others use the 27-3 or 30-4 figures.  Taking the middle ground of 30-4, the first blemish on his record was put there way back in 1997 when he was choked out by Heath Herring.  Two years later, he was TKO’d by Dutch striker Leon Dijk in Pancrase.  Early in 2001, Tito Ortiz destroyed him in a challenge for the UFC Light Heavyweight strap and his last setback, also at the higher weight, came in April 2003 when he was blitzed by then-rising star Rich Franklin.  Oddly enough, Tanner’s losses seem to have come at roughly two-year intervals.  And we’re approaching that mark again. 

 Tanner was a big hit straight away, quickly becoming the biggest attraction for the Amarillo, Texas based Unified Shoot Wrestling Alliance (USWF).  The raucous crowds loved his aggressive style and back in 1997, this was one of the hottest fighting promotions in the US.  During his USWF career Tanner, who famously trained himself and learned mainly from instructional tapes, tapped out Paul Buentello and Herring before moving on to Pancrase and later, the UFC.  In Japan Tanner picked up wins over some well regarded fighters, most notably Ikuhisa Minowa, Kiuma Kunioku and Ryushi Yanagisawa.  A decent UFC stint at Light Heavyweight followed, with wins over takedown master Darrell Gholar, BJJ stylist Elvis Sinosic and RINGS veteran Chris Haseman.  Unfortunately, Tanner then ran into Franklin and was rapidly obliterated, prompting him to follow Randy Couture’s example; cutting weight to compete in a lower division. 

 Success was immediate, Tanner’s new weight and continued association with Team Quest put him in line for a fight with Phil Baroni at UFC 45.  A repeat of the Franklin disaster looked imminent as Baroni hurt Tanner badly and early, but showing excellent survival instincts, Tanner held on and was dishing out a beating of his own when Baroni lost his mind and tried to punch referee Larry Landless.  This idiocy probably saved Baroni from the first KO or TKO loss of his career as he was exhausted and eating some nasty elbows, but it made him look like a complete jerk.  After a cursory suspension Baroni was back for a rematch and this time Tanner thoroughly dominated the fight, save for a shaky few seconds in the third round, earning a well deserved unanimous decision win.  He followed this up with a predictable submission win over Robbie Lawler to earn a shot at the belt.

 So, who wins?  Terrell has sublime submission skills but whether he can actually catch Tanner is another matter.  Tanner hasn’t submitted in almost 8 years and has been in there with some very skilled fighters.  Terrell can certainly punch and looking at the Franklin fight, and the way he was shaken so badly by Baroni, Terrell might feel confident he can beat Tanner with his fists.  The problem is that Tanner has excellent recovery skills, even if he does look very ragged when hit and often displays an awkward striking technique of his own.  In addition, after what happened to his former teammate Lindland, Tanner will be well aware of Terrell’s punching power.  Another factor is Tanner’s sheer size.  He’s huge for a middleweight and obviously has to work very hard to make the 185 limit.  Against Lawler, and in the Baroni rematch he looked monstrous.  Can Terrell handle his size and strength?  Then there’s the experience factor, whatever Tanner’s true record, he has far more big fight experience than Terrell, including 10 more UFC appearances than his young opponent. 

 Tanner therefore, has a number of advantages, but this is still a very close fight.  Terrell is a good striker, has a serious advantage in BJJ skills and has an excellent camp behind him.  Tanner on the other hand has been without Team Quest this time around.  At his size unless he trains diligently and cuts weight properly he could come into the fight overtrained and weight drained.  That could spell disaster against Terrell.  However, Tanner is unlikely to take anything for granted in this one and his experience should see him through a very hard, very competitive fight.

PREDICTION: Tanner by TKO, early in the fourth round.

Part II of this article can be found here.

Feel free to discuss this article and your predictions here. 

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