That’s not to say their approach is wrong.  It clearly works.  Just look at the way UFC exploded in 2006, and how despite creeping overexposure, the emergence of new ‘competitors’ and a horrific run of bad luck with injuries and upsets destroying marketable fights, they still made money hand over fist in 2007.  Broadly speaking, Zuffa have worked out how to promote MMA in North America.  And the signing of Brock Lesnar fits neatly into that pattern.  As does his positioning in all the marketing for this show as the main event.  In purely sports terms it’s silly that a relative novice like him, facing a past-caring former champion, is promoted above a proper, high level ‘title’ fight.  But in terms of promotion and attracting the casual, the new and the merely curious pay-per-view buy, Lesnar is infinitely more valuable than the widely hated Tim Sylvia or Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.  Anyone stepping outside the bubble of hardcore MMA-fandom should be able to see that and ignore the online whingeing about a two-fight show that will pull one of the biggest buy rates of 2008 in all of boxing, MMA or pro wrestling.  It should also provide a couple of fascinating heavyweight fights and the usual quota of solid undercard action.

Line-up:

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
UFC Interim Heavyweight title: Tim Sylvia vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Jeremy Horn vs. Nate Marquardt
Ricardo Almeida vs. Alan Belcher
Gleison Tibau vs. Tyson Griffin
Chris Lytle vs. Kyle Bradley
Marvin Eastman vs. Terry Martin
David Heath vs. Tim Boetsch
Keita Nakamura vs. Rob Emerson

Las Vegas
February 2nd 2008

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

Less than 8 months into his professional fighting career Lesnar (1-0) is already a wildly polarizing, much-discussed figure.  Shunned by outraged hardcore fans who see the words ‘WWE pro wrestler’ and immediately scream something like “STEROID!!  FAKE!!!!!  BULLSHIT!!!!!!!  DANA WHITE IS KILLING MMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!” Lesnar is a superb athlete with an exceptional freestyle wrestling pedigree, immense size, inhuman strength and genuine aggression.  He’s also going to take Mir (10-3) down and smash him into the mat inside a round.

That isn’t to say Lesnar can do that to anyone he feels like.  It may be more a case of Mir finding yet another way to embarrass himself with another feeble performance.  Against Dan Christison, Mir came into the fight woefully out of shape and was almost armbarred by a man who shouldn’t have been in his league on the mat.  Against Marcio Cruz, Mir found a way of losing to some relatively feeble G n’ P from a horribly one-dimensional, inexperienced fighter who looked as physically powerful and intimidating as Dan Severn’s grandpa.  And while his loss to Brandon Vera was more due to his opponent’s skills, Vera’s subsequent exposure by Tim Sylvia as a product of an exceptional hype campaign doesn’t exactly make Mir look good.  True, he’s coming off his most impressive win since 2004 with an on-the-mat domination of Dutchman Antoni Hardonk but can Mir actually put in two good performances in a row these days?

Not if his relaxed attitude to training is any guidance.  Well aware since October of this fight, Mir nonetheless elected to carry on working full time as head of security at Spearmint Rhino in Las Vegas well into December.  Think about that.  Lesnar has been training in MMA almost full-time for close to two years with Greg Nelson’s camp in Minnesota.  Mir didn’t even bother with full time training until less than a month ago.  Throwing out stripper-groping drunkards may be moderate exercise but it won’t prepare him for a fight with Lesnar.  Perhaps as he’s done so often, Mir thinks he can get by on his grappling skills and greater experience.  Perhaps he can, but even BJ Penn, massively more talented than Mir, has realized that just doesn’t work these days.

Mir’s self-inflicted inadequacies aside, Lesnar is good enough to win this fight and plenty more in Zuffa’s turbulent heavyweight division.  Few fighters, never mind heavyweights, are as athletic.  Few are as adaptable either.  In less than a decade Lesnar has been a superstar in collegiate wrestling, learned the very difficult craft of WWE-style pro wrestling at a main event level, came preposterously close to making the Minnesota Vikings’ roster and pounded Kim Min Soo into submission in his 69-second MMA debut.  That’s impressive stuff.  True, his chin and stamina are utterly unproven, as are his stand-up striking skills but is Mir really the man to test them?  His only TKO finish came against a Wes Sims so exhausted that an index finger poke to the chest would likely have felled the clownish giant.  Mir’s submission skills are considerable but all Lesnar really needs is enough awareness in avoiding them to land a couple of shots on the ground and watch as Mir folds and takes a pounding until the point of rescue.  Expect him to do just that.

PREDICTION: Lesnar by TKO late in the first round.

UFC Interim Heavyweight title: Tim Sylvia vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Thanks to a serious back injury, a failed drug test and a retirement/resignation/ plain old greed/legal maneuverings (choose your preferred option/s for the Couture fiasco) this is the third ‘championship’ match in just a few months where the actual titleholder hasn’t been involved.  It’s hard to know what’s worse, this tiresome procession of interim champions. Or the very real possibility that Sylvia (24-3) could lift his third title belt and once again be spotted proudly parading all over town with it dangling from his waist or hanging off his shoulder.  A few years ago the iron-chinned Nogueira (30-4-1) would likely have been an overwhelming favourite but given the poor performances of so many former Pride stars in the Octagon, his own less than stellar showing in what felt like his 567th fight against Heath Herring and Sylvia’s infuriating ability to win in the ugliest way imaginable, this is potentially a very even fight.

The tipping point for Mr Deadly Jab came in his third fight with Andrei Arlovksi in July 2006.  After an exciting first round both men settled into a pattern of standing around trying to work out which man is more afraid of the other.  One of the absolute worst fights of 2006, Sylvia did a little more and walked away with his precious title belt but with his reputation among the fanbase badly tarnished.  Four months later and he dominated the comparatively diminutive Jeff Monson for most of their five round fight.  Much better than the Arlovski shambles, it was still a monumental bore, highlighted by Sylvia’s somewhat comical triangle attempts but frustrating for his complete inability to use a massive height and reach advantage or to press for the stoppage on his badly bruised challenger.  Randy Couture’s folkloric win over the big, stumbling giant may have been a slow fight where little actually happened but the staggeringly popular Couture could do no wrong.  Unlike Sylvia who immediately complained of a back injury in a post-fight moment that will forever have solidified him in many people’s eyes as a complete jerk.  Couture outclassed Sylvia in every way for a good 24 minutes of their 25 minute fight but to his credit, Mr Deadly Jab returned to action with a win over Brandon Vera in November.  Again, the fight was utterly boring, but this time Sylvia did a good job of using his size in imposing his will and his gameplan on the smaller striker.  It was Vera who did nothing, and complained later of a broken hand.  That doesn’t explain why he didn’t punch Sylvia with the other or use his kicks and knees though.  In the end, Sylvia had exposed Vera and in an ever-changing UFC heavyweight division that victory, and his status as a two-time champion earned him yet another title shot.

Nogueira may have looked shaky in his UFC debut but he still pulled off the decision win, even if that was partly due to Heath Herring’s utter foolishness in not following up his advantage after almost KOing the Brazilian hardman late in the first round.  Nobody, not even Mirko Cro Cop in that epic battle in 2003 had come so close to a clean KO over Nogueira.  After that disappointing beginning, Nogueira has a chance to really impress in this one.  He’s faced better and more varied opposition than Sylvia and has a massive edge in submission skill and, the Herring near-miss aside, a far better chin.  Sylvia is far more experienced in the cage but has often struggled to use his size to his advantage.  At times, Nogueira has disappointed or seemed to go at half-speed against fighters he deemed to be beneath his skill level – think of Hirotaka Yokoi or Pawel Nastula.  And sometimes, as against Fabricio Werdum and the recent Herring fight, he’s simply disappointing.  But the Nogueira who twice fought Josh Barnett in 2006, or the one who beat Sergei Kharitonov and Cro Cop should tear Sylvia apart.  Underestimating Sylvia would be a serious mistake.  For all his unpopularity and awkwardness, Mr Deadly Jab is a capable, winning fighter.  But Nogueira’s talent should shine through in this fight, despite what could be stubborn opposition from Sylvia.

Twice before, Sylvia has lost by submission early in the first round.  Against Frank Mir, a fighter he had a huge edge in striking skill over, Sylvia boneheadedly opted to take him down and left himself open for an armbar in 50 seconds.  Then, almost three years ago to the day, Arlovski felled him with a punch and slapped a leglock on the befuddled giant for a win in 47 seconds.  Much has been made of Sylvia’s improved submission skills in the Monson fight but his survival on the mat there was more due to the immense size difference (it’s difficult to do anything in your opponents’ guard when you’re so far away from his head and arms) and the fact Monson, for all his grappling credentials, is really more of a wrestler than true submission artist.  And Sylvia is a good, strong wrestler who happens to be huge.  Nogueira likely won’t catch Sylvia as quickly as Mir and Arlovski did, but his striking is superbly controlled, his chin strong enough to take Sylvia’s best shots and press forward and his submission skills are excellent.  He’s also tall while being heavy enough to avoid being pushed around the way Vera was.  Look for both to land shots early but for Nogueira’s to do the most damage to Sylvia’s comparatively weak chin.  Once Nogueira hurts him on their feet it should only be a matter of time before he locks on a submission for what should be a wildly popular ‘title’ win.

PREDICTION: Nogueira by submission late in the third.

‘Plus more great fights’

Well, that was how Mike Goldberg described the undercard on the January 23rd Fight Night special on Spike TV.  If it’s good enough for the man who regularly has to spend a good five to six hours keeping Joe Rogan under some kind of control then it’s good enough for me.  And in all fairness, there really should be a couple of very entertaining fights here.

Ignored by Zuffa for a long time for the intertwining sins of being very, very dull and very, very good at the same time Jeremy Horn (79-16-5) returned to UFC action for a long, drawn-out demolition at the hands of a very composed and focused Chuck Liddell in August 2005.  After Liddell repeatedly stuffed his takedowns and battered him to defeat with punches, Horn went on to beat Trevor Prangley in coma-inducing fight and armbar Chael Sonnen before being quietly dropped by the company once again.  Since then, he’s struggled, decisioning Falaniko Vitale but being battered to defeat by Matt Lindland and being submitted by Jorge Santiago.  But an injury to Nate Marquardt’s (25-7-2) original opponent means Horn steps in at relatively short notice.  One of the most talented middleweights around, Marquardt’s UFC career started off badly with his abysmal points decision over Ivan Salaverry and continued with decision victories over Joe Doerksen and Dean Lister.  Neither fight was as pitiful as the Salaverry fiasco (after which Marquardt also managed to fail a drug test) but they were hardly exciting either.  Inbetween, Marquardt showed real quality in his submission win over Crafton Wallace.  A 4-0 UFC record and a dearth of credible challengers under contract landed him a title shot at Anderson Silva.  Many expected Marquardt’s finely-balanced arsenal of wrestling, submission and striking skills would give Silva a real test.  Instead, Silva bludgeoned him to defeat inside a round.   And now, Marquardt looks set to get back on track with another slow, workmanlike decision win over the even less exciting Horn.  Marquardt may struggle coming back from the decisive loss to the exceptional Silva but Horn is looking past his best these days.  After years without a stoppage defeat, he’s suffered two inside two years and despite slowing down his hectic schedule (he fought just twice in 2006 and twice in 2007) all those years of constant training and fighting may have finally caught up with the 32-year-old.  Or he could just be struggling more against the very best fighters.  And for all his dullness, Marquardt is one of the best at his weight.

Highly talented Renzo Gracie disciple Ricardo Almeida (8-2) returns from a near four year retirement to take on hard-hitting Alan Belcher (12-4) in one of the show’s most intriguing fights.  Last seen on a UFC show in 2002, taking a beating from Andrei Semenov, Almeida headed off to Japan where he amassed an impressive 6-0 record and picked up a King of Pancrase title.  And that six-fight run was an impressive one.  Between late 2002 and May 2004 he submitted Osami Shibuya and Nate Marquardt and decisioned Ikuhisa Minowa, Yuki Sasaki, Kazuo Misaki and Ryo Chonan.  The Misaki win looks particularly impressive these days given the outrageously tanned Japanese fighter’s battles with Dan Henderson and gratifyingly poetic ‘win’ over Yoshihiro Akiyama.  But as good as Misaki is today, he was still learning, though showing great potential, in 2003 when he met a dominant and aggressive Almeida.  Still only 31, Almeida may have benefited from the layoff and be set for a genuine run at the UFC middleweight title.  And Belcher is a good first opponent.  Coming off a pair of wins over Sean Salmon and Kalib Starnes, Almeida is a real step up in class for a fighter who was submitted by lanky TUF3 flop Kendall Grove last April.  Younger than Almeida, more active, very energetic, aggressive and heavy-handed, Belcher has plenty of tools to make Almeida wish he’d stayed retired.  He also seems very settled and relaxed inside the Octagon, with this being his sixth Zuffa appearance.  Almeida is undoubtedly more talented on the mat, and has mixed with much better competition.  The real question is how he’ll react to his first real fight situation in almost four years.  As long as he doesn’t get overwhelmed early, he should put on a fine showing and catch Belcher with a submission for a triumphant return to action.

With Tyson Griffin (10-1) on the show, fans are practically guaranteed a great fight.  Compact, powerful, aggressive and skilled in all aspects of the sport, Griffin has looked great in his four-fight UFC career.  Choking out David Lee with ease, dropping a decision in a fantastic fight against Frankie Edgar and winning a split verdict in a show-saving epic against Clay Guida that made an awful UFC 72 not just watchable but unmissable for that fight alone, and most recently, scoring a decision win over Thiago Tavarres.  His opponent Gleison Tibau (15-4) is also making his fifth Octagon appearance, and also boasts a 3-1 record for the company.  Coming off a decision win over another superb young prospect, Terry Etim, Tibau got off to a shaky UFC start with a TKO loss to Nick Diaz but has impressed in every fight since.  An energetic young fighter from the American Top Team, Tibau is a great opponent for Griffin.  Both are well-rounded and capable of setting a furious pace.  If both men live up to expectations this is really one of those fights where it doesn’t matter who wins and who loses.  Griffin’s excellent chin may make the difference here.  Tibau has been stopped three times in his career while Griffin has come back from some heavy shots in previous fights.  That, and his strong wrestling base, may make the difference in a very competitive fight Griffin can win by stoppage.  Either way, I’d be amazed if anyone other these two walks away with that ‘Best Fight’ bonus.

Dependable, durable veteran Chris Lytle (24-15-5) makes his eleventh UFC appearance against Louisiana’s Kyle Bradley (13-4).  The dependable, well-rounded Lytle is coming off only his second stoppage defeat, on cuts in a very, very competitive fight with future superstar Thiago Alves.  Composed and experienced, Lytle will be a very tough opponent for the debuting Bradley.  The newcomer is riding a three-fight KO streak but Lytle will just be too skilled for him.  Look for the Indiana native to trap his younger opponent with a submission somewhere around the midway point.

Oklahoma’s David Heath (7-2) faces late replacement Tim Boetsch (6-1) in a fight where both are looking to come back from damaging defeats.  Heath looked hopelessly lost against the infuriating but brilliantly elusive Lyoto Machida last April and followed that up with his gore-soaked submission defeat against Renatoi ‘Babalu’ Sobral.  Boetsch is coming off a complete humbling at the hands of Vladimir Matyushenko in a fight where he was utterly powerless to stop Matyushenko from taking him down and grinding out a decision win.  Only a professional fighter since late 2006, Boetsch built up some stoppage wins in the Midwest but just wasn’t ready for the likes of Matyushenko.  He probably isn’t ready for Heath either.  Heath is nothing special.  He’s a decent fighter with strength, determination and some good wrestling.  Those defeats to Machida and a vengeful Sobral (irked by Heath’s pre-fight behaviour, ‘Babalu’ held the choke on far too long and got himself fired not long afterwards) are evidence of that.  As is the fact he struggled to get past Victor Valimaki.  But he has more experience than Boetsch at a much higher level and should walk away with a decision win in what will probably be just another fight between two guys that few will ever remember.

Marvin Eastman (14-7-1) and Terry Martin (16-3) square off in a ‘let’s-fulfill-these-guys-contracts’ kind of match that, while it may provide some entertainment, will have very few implications for anyone beyond the two fighters.  Neither man is likely to rise much further up the ranks with Zuffa and both are probably better suited to one of the company’s ‘competitors’ like the IFL or EliteXC.  Eastman at least, seems to owe his latest Zuffa contract more to an accident of history than anything else.  If not for his June 2000 decision victory over a red-raw Quinton Jackson and the easy match-making of booking the two of them for Jackson’s UFC debut, Eastman would likely have had his final ever UFC match in 2004 when he collapsed dramatically to the mat on the end of a feeble-looking Travis Lutter punch in an atrocious contest of ‘who can stand around doing nothing for longer’.  He performed well against a flat-looking Jackson before the almost-inevitable defeat a year ago but the 38-year-old is little more than a decent fighter these days.  Though he does have some good wins behind him and was desperately unlucky not to get the decision in his 2005 fight with Jason Lambert.  Martin is the better wrestler, heavy-handed in the clinch and on the ground while Eastman is the more talented and experienced striker on his feet.  Eastman proved he can handle a powerful wrestler in the Lambert fight but Martin should still take this, despite coming off a stoppage loss to Chris Leben last September.  Badly tiring, Martin stunned Leben with some good punches only for the eccentric TUF1 veteran to just lurch forward like a confused zombie and blast him out with a huge left hand.  More of a brawler than a refined striker, Martin had looked very good in his two fights before that.  He physically dominated, suplexed and pounded out the resourceful Ivan Salaverry and blitzed Jorge Rivera in a stunning 14 seconds.  Look for Martin to come back from the Leben defeat with a stoppage win over the older, more shop-worn Eastman.

Talented Japanese fighter Keita ‘K-Taro’ Nakamura (14-2-2) looks to avoid going 0-3 in the Octagon as he faces TUF5 contestant Rob Emerson (6-6).  A decent striker, Emerson has gone the distance with some good fighters, most notably Jens Pulver, Javier Vazquez and Dokonjonosuke Mishima.  And he’s beaten a couple of good Japanese fighters in Takafumi Ito and Kenji Arai during his 2006 appearances for Pancrase.  This is his first outing since that incredible TUF5 Finale No Contest against Gray Maynard.  Slammed to the mat, Emerson suffered a rib injury that had him tapping out, even as the previously dominant Maynard was happily snoozing away having bashed his own head into the ground.  The 23-year-old K-Taro couldn’t cope with Brock Larson and Drew Fickett in his previous UFC appearances, dropping decisions to both, but should be good enough to beat Emerson.  He may be coming off his first ever KO victory but K-Taro is unlikely to finish Emerson inside the distance with either a submission or a KO.  No-one has done it so far and K-Taro doesn’t look like being the first.  But he is capable of a decision win.

Predictions Re-cap:

Brock Lesnar TKO1 Frank Mir
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira SUB3 Tim Sylvia
Nate Marquardt DEC3 Jeremy Horn
Ricardo Almeida SUB1 Alan Belcher
Tyson Griffin TKO2 Gleison Tibau
Chris Lytle SUB2 Kyle Bradley
David Heath DEC3 Tim Boetsch
Terry Martin TKO2 Marvin Eastman
Keita Nakamura DEC3 Rob Emerson