For us punters, the fact that all roads will be leading to Yokohama Arena on December 8th this year instead of the more prestigious Dome is not going to dampen our spirits. The kakutougi boom in Japan is well and truly over, as can be seen by falling ratings for all three of the events FEG promotes (K-1, MAX, and HERO’s). However on the bright side, the Grand Prix is the one event where the fighters that qualify and the opening round match ups are out of the hands of promoters and television producers alike. Thus, it is safe from wild mismatches and the inclusion of want-to-be fighters. It is pure. It remains sacred. And for the better part of the year, it has not even been tainted by one excessively suntanned, rather muscular and goateed individual running around trying to hog camera time either.

The line up is one of the best in recent times. There are three fighters (as well as three reserve fighters) that were not part of the 2006 GP, which has helped to spice things up. The reigning two-time GP and Super Heavy-weight Champion will be trying to add yet another belt to his collection (and if he manages to do so, he will be the first ever champion to win three consecutive GP’s), and the Heavy-weight Champion will be out to show the world that he can back up his slightly overdeveloped mouth. Veterans will be planning to show they still have it. And up-and-comers are going to attempt to prove they deserve their spot in the Best Eight. Oh, and one vastly improved giant will be there.

While absolutely anything can and often does happen during the GP, on paper this has all the makings of an event that will not be soon forgotten. On to the quarter final predictions:

Jerome Lebanner vs. Choi Hong-man

Kicking things off is this rematch from the 2006 Eliminations. That fight almost never took place as LeBanner was in the middle of filming the movie ASTERIX and could not risk any serious injury affecting their schedule. In typical LeBanner fashion he decided to fight at the last moment, flew into Osaka the day of the event and came directly to the Osaka Dome. He looked trim and fit, and ultimately won an extra round decision over the giant Choi Hong-man.

There are three things that make this rematch intriguing. The first is that both of these men started poorly this year. LeBanner lost in a shocking upset to Junichi Sawayashiki and was knocked down twice in the process. For his part, Choi ate a massive “M”over-hand right from Mighty Mo and tasted the canvas for the first time in his budding fight career. The second thing is this; Choi had the choice of who to fight. He could have chosen what most consider being the easiest opponent of the field (Junichi) for his first round opponent, but instead went to LeBanner’s side. He wants revenge. And he wants to beat a fighter he has huge respect for. LeBanner was also happy with Choi’s choice. The final fact that has me interested in this fight is what LeBanner said in his post fight interview after their first fight. His initial comments were something about feeling sorry for Choi’s girlfriend if his entire body was indeed built to scale. But far more importantly he said that in a year or two, Choi would be unbeatable.

One year and one month later here they are. Since last year’s GP LeBanner has participated in just two fights. The one previously mentioned, though admittedly he was carrying a tendon injury and had trouble with his arm at the time. He has since had his knee repaired, and the plate and bolts removed from his arm. The second was a short affair against Korean Tae Kwon Do practitioner Yong-Soo Park. There is no need to beat yourself up if you have never heard of Park, as his most famous in-ring achievement is kicking Musashi’s groin three times in under a minute; in turn contributing to a hospital stay due to internal bleeding for the unfortunate Japanese fighter. LeBanner dealt out some revenge for Musashi in the form of a KO that took the Frenchman less than 2 minutes to deliver.

Choi has been a little more active. Subsequent to his corner man collecting his head from the fourteenth row after he decided to see just how hard Mo really could punch, he immediately asked for a fight on the next card (evidentially it was the first time he had ever asked for a fight). He then set about working for a chance at revenge. Sadly, it seems Mo knocked the rapper out of Choi in Yokohama, as he has not sung his own entrance song since. The sad part being the lack of beautiful Korean support dancers he used.

Without those ladies to distract him, he made quick work of his next two opponents, knocking both out in early rounds. One of those was Gary Goodridge, no doubt hand-picked as a slugger that could help him prepare to take his revenge on the man that fights to feed his thirteen children. Or was it thirty-one? Anyway, Choi had Gary out on his feet not long after the echo of the opening bell had faded away. At the Eliminations he got his chance against the big Samoan, and he won a close and somewhat controversial decision.

We really have not seen enough of LeBanner this year to note what improvements he has made to his game. Choi on the other hand has gained a good deal of experience since their last fight, and moreover, has switched to southpaw. Will that alone make it an easier or tougher match up for LeBanner? Will we see the hugely muscled, and more powerful LeBanner show up, or the slightly sleeker and faster one? The last time these two fought we saw LeBanner literally jumping to try and hit the Koreans head. And he stopped low kicking because he said Choi’s legs were so solid the kicks were hurting him when he landed them. On top of this Choi has added to his arsenal with a decent looking front kick/teep, and he is getting better with his knees as well.

A lot of people see this as a reasonably easy win for LeBanner. I don’t. Choi has been getting more and more experienced while LeBanner has been busy with other projects and more importantly, recovering from injuries. I believe it will finally come down to heart.

LeBanner has the heart of a true fighter. No one can question that after some of the wars he has participated in, not to mention his comeback from a career-ending injury. Choi on the other hand reminds me of a kid that has found a new game he is pretty decent at. While I am sure he is dedicated to improving and is putting in the same hard yards other fighters are, he doesn’t give me the impression that he is devoting his life to becoming the best fighter he can be. Assuming neither man knocks the other out in the opening seconds, I see LeBanner having his hand raised at the end of a nail-biter.

Semmy Schilt vs. Glaube Feitosa

The second fight of the GP is also a rematch. In fact, much to Glaube’s chagrin, this will be the third time they fight, with a 2-0 record going against the Brazilian so far. The first time they fought was in the 2005 Eliminations, where Semmy powered his way through to earn a decision victory. The second was in the final of the same year’s GP. Semmy knocked out Glaube with a perfectly executed knee that sent Glaube face-first into the ropes, and out for the count. In so doing, Semmy became the fourth Dutch champion, the biggest ever champion (in size), the first karateka champion since the late Andy Hug, and perhaps a little unfairly, the least popular champion. He was not going to be a one-trick-pony though. He repeated the feat in 2006 by walking through LeBanner, Hoost and Aerts, and I believe he and his team expect he will do so again this year.

It would seem that since last years GP, Semmy has taken out some sort of personal vendetta against Oceania. He started it off by defeating Peter Graham at Dynamite by decision. In March he defeated Ray Sefo to win the Super Heavy-weight strap by knock out. That bears repeating, despite the fact I don’t want to dwell on it. He won via knockout. Ray has had fifty fights for FEG and had never been knocked out in any of them. Getting back to the vendetta, he followed that up by running rings around the big Samoan, Might Mo. And the cherry on top of his pavlova (dessert of Australian/New Zealand origin, click here to see) was stopping Paul Slowinski by yet another knock out. I for one am glad that he is not facing Sam Greco in the opening round, as that would be too much for just about any fight-fan from the southern hemisphere to take.

Glaube has not been as successful or as busy this year. He has had just two fights thus far and has a 1-1 record for his troubles. He first fought a superfight against Remy Bonjasky, and he lost a very close majority decision to the two-time GP champion. He went on to fight Chalid in the Eliminations and destroyed him in the early rounds, before getting the nod by unanimous decision. He knocked down Chalid with both knees and his hands, and it was the use of his hands that made the fight with Remy so close. His hands, once his weakness, seem to be improving both offensively and defensively with each outing.

So it was a little over two years ago that these karateka met in the ring. Both have shown vast improvement. Semmy has lost only three times, all by decision and all of them are highly debatable, since entering K-1. Two of these since they last fought. In the past five years Glaube has lost five times. These losses have only been to K-1 GP Champions. Hoost, Schilt, Aerts and Bonjasky. The last two times he fought champions he was extremely close to breaking this curse. He had Aerts wobbling and hurt after landing a textbook Brazilian high kick in the semi-finals of last years GP, and was within a point or two of beating Bonjasky in Hawaii. Will he be able to do it this year?

At this point every fighter knows what to expect when it comes to fighting Semmy. He fights the same way each time, but he improves on his game each and every time. Ray Sefo put a chink in his armor and a bruise on his butt by dropping him at the end of the first round in March. That was the first time anyone had managed to do any sort of real damage to Semmy in K-1. FEG then rather transparently matched Semmy up with Mo hoping the same would happen, with more permanent results. But Semmy had his guard up, moved more and had Mo gassed and hurt by the second round. It seems every time someone glimpses a hole in Semmy’s style, Dave Jonkers wastes no time in plugging it up so the next fighter in line doesn’t get to exploit it.

If there is one group of people in the world that have studied Semmy more than anyone else, it is the trainers and fighters training at Ichigeki. Instructors Faii Falaome, Jayson “Supercharge” Vemoa and Mauricio “Baboo” DaSilva along with the fighters Ray Sefo, Aleksandr Pitchkunov, Jan Notje, and of course Glaube Feitosa have prepared for fighters to face Semmy no less than seven times collectively. That is a vast amount of both knowledge and experience to draw on, and it includes the only two men to have ever put Semmy down for a count in Japan.

In the end, I see this fight being decided by mental toughness and which one can put the other on the back-foot. Semmy tends to be a slab of stone. It seems like physically and mentally nothing that happens in a fight affects his forward movement and constant attacks. Glaube tends to cover up when pressured. He still shoots some nicely timed counter-shots out from his guard that land cleanly, but it seems recently the judges tend to favor the fighters going to town on their opponents guard, so that game might not be the best idea here. If he manages to incorporate the angles into his game that Sefo did, and uses his own kicks to keep Semmy moving backwards, he has a definite chance.

The last two years I have predicted Semmy’s opponents will win. Firstly, Sefo in 2005 before I found out just how sick he was, then LeBanner in 2006. Semmy has proven me wrong on both occasions, and rubbed it in my face by winning both belts and beating just about everyone else as well. I cannot help but respect his accomplishments. He is a machine. I do feel that Glaube has the tools needed to beat Semmy though, and this year really has been the year of surprises and upsets both in K-1 and MMA so I am sorely tempted to do it again. To do so would surely be to jinx any and all opponents he faces that night though. Semmy by unanimous decision.

Badr Hari vs. Remy Bonjasky

This is going to be the GP fight-of-the-night. Remy rarely speaks ill of others, but I get the feeling Hari is not on his Christmas card list. Hari has been quite vocal in his dislike of Remy. After one of his fights last year he spouted off to the media that he was no Remy Bonjasky. That he doesn’t call fighters out in public then refuse to fight them when it comes to inking the deal. There seems to be some real bad blood here, not just hype for the fight. And this is the only real opening fight where it exists.

It will be first time for Hari to be part of the GP, and he is one of few to have made it there without having to qualify in the traditional sense (of winning a regional GP). He qualified in a new, and perhaps more stylish way. By winning the Heavy-weight Championship. Remy on the other hand is an old hand at the game, but to call him a vet is to invite abuse from most long-term online fans. While Remy himself is still far from retirement age, this fight is almost like the old timer vs. the up-and-comer.

It seems quite a few fighters have issues with Remy being a two-time champion. He has a habit of shutting them up when they meet in the ring though. Both Hoost and Leko were not shy about sharing their feelings on the subject, and both had a capital “L” typed on their record after having faced him. Leko managed to get two of them next to his name. Like him or not, Remy knows how to play to the judges, the referees, and most of all how to advance in the GP’s without taking very much damage. He has fought in four World GP’s and has made it to at least the semi-finals of every one. There are not a lot of fighters that can say they have done that.

Badr Hari is one that can not. In fact, he has only competed in one regional GP to qualify for the Eliminations, and he lost the opening fight in devastating fashion. His jaw was badly broken, and the very fact he is still fighting after such a horrendous injury shows just what sort of constitution he has. After perhaps coming back one fight too soon, he quickly started winning again and captured his belt by stopping both Ruslan and Fujimoto. He is exciting, and fights to stop his opponents. That is the sort of fighter the crowd are quick to support. FEG are getting their marketing machine behind him already, and it is easy to see why. He has a more prominent spot in both the poster and television commercial than the current champion does, and he even has his own official figure being sold in Japan now. He just drips natural talent and seems to have learnt that he does not have to be an ass to be tough.

This year Remy fought just twice. He has had personal issues to go though (a divorce, finding a new gym and trainer, his mother passing away), but he seems to be back to where he was before he began just going through the motions. Since last years outing he beat Glaube in the aforementioned majority decision, and then knocked out Stefan Leko in just one round. Remy looked better in that one round than he has in some time. And Hari will want to have been paying attention as Leko’s goading of Remy, something Hari is an expert at, only served to fire him up to a level we hadn’t seen in some time.

Hari on the other hand has been busy. FEG have wanted him on every show, so he has fought five times since last years GP, and has won all five. He beat four of his opponents by knockout in either the first or second round, including Olympic boxer Doug Viney. He also managed to take revenge on Peter Graham, the man that almost ended his career with the “Rolling Thunder” that shattered his jaw in early 2006. He has a belt to his name and the confidence to go with it. But will that be enough?

There is no doubt that Hari is the new generation of fighter that FEG has been praying would turn up. He is the future. I think he might be in a little over his head this time though. When I consider the ways he could beat Remy, the only two I can honestly see happening are a judge’s decision or a freak injury. Sure, anything can happen in a fight so there are other possible outcomes, but the likelihood is remote. Remy just does not get hurt. Other than by fouls, which he has an unparalleled ability to collect during fights. He has been stopped just once since he fought Mirko Crocop years ago, and that was by the man that went on to take the title. Other than his shins, I don’t remember him ever being cut, and he rarely even gets tagged by a solid punch. Both Fracois Botha and Jerome LeBanner have tried their hand at tenderizing his body for three rounds, both without reward. And as noted by Steven Wright (click here), Remy tends to get stronger in the latter rounds due to his outstanding stamina. He does hold the record for the highest number of rounds taken to win a GP after all.

Hari on the other hand, while always looking impressive, still gets hit a lot. Fighters far below Remy’s level have knocked him down. A lot of fighters he has beaten have been aggressive fighters that use a lot of punches, but few have been throwing in flying knees and high kicks as well. Not to mention、none have been as tall or had a similar reach as he. If he is having some trouble with fighters like Ruslan, then he still has some training ahead of him before facing the likes of Remy Bonjasky. That won’t stop this from being one of those fights where you just cannot afford to blink at any time though. Remy by knock out.

Peter Aerts vs. Junichi Sawayashiki

What a difference a year makes for some. This time last year Junichi was training for his first ever K-1 fight. An under-card fight held before 90% of the fans had arrived at Tokyo Dome for the GP. I remember watching the fight and not being terribly impressed at all. He barely scraped through with a split decision over another Japanese hopeful. I don’t think there is a person alive that could have predicted that Junichi and his opponent would hold wins over the two most prominent French K-1 fighters just 4 months later. Noda, his opponent that night a year ago, defeated Cyril Abidi while a much improved Junichi shocked the world by dropping LeBanner twice on his way to victory. Coincidentally, this upset took place in the same arena the GP is being held this year.

FEG immediately ran with their new Japanese star and threw him on two other cards leading up to the Eliminations, giving him opponents more suited to his experience level. He won those fights and wound up getting and invitation to the Eliminations to fight Fujimoto, shocking…well, no one.

Aerts has been no slouch this year either. Spending the first few months in contract negotiations left him sidelined for the first six months. He wasted no time since then though, and has jumped back with three stoppage wins since June. One of them by a knock out so brutal that I am sure there is a portion of his opponent’s spirit still haunting the arena. Recently Aerts has really been finding form that fans thought he had lost in the late 90’s. Not only that, but the fact he chose to fight Junichi as his first rival shows how determined he is to maximize his chances of leveling the score of four championships with Ernesto Hoost.

If Junichi manages to win this fight somehow, he will become a god among local K-1 fans. Just like Hari he has a promising future ahead of him. His style is not the most exciting. All bread and butter, but so very effective. It really is hard to imagine lady luck smiling on him any more than she has already recently though. In a period of twelve months he has moved from the under-card, to the position of number one Japanese fighter. Musashi is fighting a superfight, and after his last performance Fujimoto is nowhere to be seen. He has heart, he is smart, he can obviously follow a game plan perfectly, he has great hands and he is brilliant with getting in and out of striking range. But he is fighting the only man to have fought in every single K-1 World Grand Prix ever held. All of them. A man that has not lost a K-1 fight that he trained for, other than against the current champion (and in his third fight for the night), since 2003. And even that one was somewhat controversial. I am excited to see what sort of strategy Junichi comes up with for Aerts, but I would personally not place any money on him winning, no matter how favorable the odds are.

Incidentally, it was Junichi’s team mate, Hori that was the turning point for Aerts really coming back to form. They fought in Seoul in 2006 and Aerts fought like a man possessed, finally knocking the Team Dragon member out in the second round with a face-plant inducing high kick. Hori is actually several centimeters taller than Aerts, while Junichi is about the same number shorter.

I hope to see an exciting fight here, and whatever happens I have high hopes for Junichi in the future. The difference between those he has faced so far, including an injured LeBanner, and a motivated and healthy Aerts are just going to be far too much for him this time though. Aerts by knock out.

If I am right, this will leave us with Semmy facing off with LeBanner once again, and Aerts and Remy finally meeting in the ring. With the runner up being one of the reserve fighters the last couple of years, I think I will sit back and watch the event unfold with the rest of you rather than make further predictions. Just about any combination of these eight fighters advancing will give us exciting fights and some spectacular endings. Add to those the two reserve fights we will get to see; Mighty Mo takes on Chalid “Die Faust” and Ray Sefo faces off against Paul Slowinski. It leaves me wondering why this event would not sell out Tokyo Dome.

If you want to try your hand at predicting the winner and possibly win some gear from Jerome LeBanner/K-1 in the process then click here.

Don’t forget, if you live in Australia you can watch this event live. See here for details: www.mainevent.com.au

Canadians too can tune in live: www.thefightnetwork.com