With four major fights like this, the undercard really doesn’t matter and quite frankly, it’s hardly a great one.  An uninspired smattering of TUF alumni sprinkled with a couple of interesting debuts and the return of Frank Edgar after his Fight of the Year candidate with Tyson Griffin, Joe Silvas has booked far better shows from top to bottom.  But Anderson Silva’s first middleweight title defence against former King of Pancrase Nate Marquardt and Sean Sherk’s first lightweight title defence against the thoroughly deserving Hermes Franca are genuinely high quality fights.  The top four fights make this more than worth the money.

Line-up:

UFC Middleweight title: Anderson Silva vs. Nate Marquardt
UFC Lightweight title: Sean Sherk vs. Hermes Franca
Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera vs. Heath Herring
Tito Ortiz vs. Rashad Evans
Kenny Florian vs. Alvin Robinson
Stephan Bonnar vs. Mike Nickels
Jorge Gurgel vs. Diego Saraiva
Chris Lytle vs. Jason Gilliam
Frank Edgar vs. Mark Bocek
July 7th
Sacramento, California
www.ufc.com

UFC Middleweight title: Anderson Silva vs. Nate Marquardt

If not for Travis Lutter’s failure to make weight at UFC 67, this would be Silva’s (18-4) second title defence.  Instead, it’s his first.  And it could easily be his last.  Challenger Marquardt (25-6-2) is a very worthy opponent.  Riding a six-fight winning streak where he’s beaten Kazuo Misaki, Izuru Takeuchi, and since his UFC debut, Ivan Salaverry, Joe Doerksen, Crafton Wallace and Dean Lister, the 28-year-old Marquardt spent six years as one of the top fighters in Pancrase.  Finally looking to make his name in his home country, Marquardt may be 4-0 in UFC but the Salaverry abomination almost derailed things from the very beginning.  Almost two years ago, Nate ‘the Great’ and Salaverry headlined the first Ultimate Fight Night in a showdown so utterly insufferable it was actually edited off every subsequent replay showing.  Even worse, and most confusingly, Marquardt tested positive for steroids (only to appeal later and be exonerated).  Seven months later he was back, decisioning Doerksen in a fight the live crowd hated but which was a thousand times better than his UFC debut.  In both matches Marquardt showed off his poised, well-rounded arsenal but quite honestly, he still looked like one of the most boring men on the planet.  An unsurprisingly dominant submission win over the limited Crafton Wallace showed just how good Marquardt can be and he followed it up with a fifteen minute dismantling of Dean Lister in January.  Few if any fighters have handled the highly respected Lister with such consummate ease.  Good with his hands, Marquardt really excels in the submission game, taking 14 wins that way and using his conditioning, intelligence and all-round skills to earn seven decision wins.  Now training at Greg Jackson’s camp in Albuquerque, Marquardt may not be the most dynamic fighter at 185 pounds but has all the tools to win the title.  Standing in his way is one of the sport’s slickest, fastest, most talented strikers.

Like Marquardt, Silva is a BJJ black belt but had some trouble with Lutter before setting his inexcusably tubby opponent up for a nice triangle choke win.  Lutter has real BJJ skills and some great takedowns (he took Matt Lindland down early in their fight) so Silva finishing him on the mat was impressive even if what people really want to see from Silva is the kind of sublime Muay Thai display that destroyed Chris Leben and Rich Franklin.  Creative and with chilling power (see his upward elbow KO of Tony Fryklund and the way he left Curtis Stout unconscious on the mat in his last two Cage Rage appearances), Silva is exceptionally dangerous.  And a great dancer.  Physically, Marquardt will be the stronger of the two but he can’t match Silva either in the clinch or at distance.  Both have the submission skills to catch the other but Silva’s striking is much better while Marquardt is the superior wrestler.  A Shooto, Meca, Cage Rage and Pride veteran, Silva has taken on better, and more varied opposition.  Marquardt’s long Pancrase run came after the promotion had peaked and his record is somewhat padded with plenty of rematches.  He’s gone 2-1-1 against Kiuma Kunioku and 2-1 against Takeuchi, demonstrating just how closeted and incestuous the Pancrase system is.  Silva has faced a wider variety of opponents and was also responsible for possibly the funniest fight of all time.  Chris Leben’s pre-fight interview saw him promise to send Silva “back to Japan where the competition’s easier”.  Sadly, Leben’s geographical knowledge is about as good as his defence since Silva’s preceding four fights had been in Honolulu and London.  And Silva decimated him in 49 exhilarating, uproarious seconds.  Amazingly, Zuffa thought it would be a competitive fight and Dana White was reportedly shocked when Silva followed that up by laying waste to Rich Franklin four months later to win the title.

This fight is very difficult to predict, especially in a year replete with stunning upsets..  Of the two, only Marquardt has gone twenty-five minutes in a single fight.  But that was back in 2001 and Silva is a superbly conditioned, flexible, balanced athlete.  Marquardt is an excellent fighter and more well-rounded but he just isn’t as special as Silva, the most dangerous man who ever worked at McDonald’s.  ‘The Spider’ has lost just three times in the last seven years.  Confusion over the exact legality of upkicks led to his DQ defeat against Yushin Okami and Ryo Chonan and Daijyu Takase both caught a sleeping, overconfident Silva with submissions.  The Okami fight was a mess and he seems to have made real adjustments to his ground game since the Takase loss.  Chonan’s flying leg scissor takedown submission combo was something of a one-off.  I expect Silva to win this one thanks to those beautiful Muay Thai skills but he may never face a tougher challenger than Marquardt.  Lutter made Silva look human for a round or so.  Marquardt can make him look average for just as long and probably much more.  But eventually, Silva should make a breakthrough, catch Marquardt with some punches, kicks, knees or elbows and become the first man to stop the Wyoming native with strikes.  Expect a long, hard, dramatic fight with Silva the eventual winner after a flurry of vicious strikes on his feet.

PREDICTION: Silva by TKO late in the fourth round.

UFC Lightweight title: Sean Sherk vs. Hermes Franca

Losing just twice in his eight-year fighting career, and those to Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes, defending champion Sherk (31-2-1) is going to be a very difficult titleholder to dethrone.  Riding an eight-fight winning streak after his disastrous 0-3 record in 2005, Franca (18-5) is a hugely talented, entertaining fighter and a great challenger.  But sadly for the Florid-based Brazilian, he looks like being hammered by ‘the Muscle Shark’.  Like Hughes, who he pushed harder than most for the full five rounds in their 2003 fight, Sherk is a brutally strong, aggressive, tightly controlled fighter who brings few surprises to the cage but has built a career on sticking to a very effective winning formula.  Unlike Hughes, Sherk has some decent striking and superb submission defence too.  Still new to the 155 pound division, Sherk is a power-packed monster, especially as someone who spent so long at 170 pounds taking on a fighter who used to compete at 145 pounds.  Franca has shown some real power with his wildly unrestrained punching, stopping TUF5 disaster Gabe Ruediger, Ryan Schultz and most recently, Spencer Fisher.  But wild swinging is not a good strategy against Sherk and his explosive takedowns.  Three of Franca’s decision losses are a little questionable, the defeats to Yves Edwards and the loss to Josh Thomson, but its unlikely there will be much debate about this one.  Few fighters can live with Sherk’s frenetic pace, particularly when sustained over five rounds.  Superbly conditioned and with a champion’s will to win (Eli Roth style blood loss and a rotator cuff injury couldn’t stop him) Sherk just brutalised Kenny Florian for twenty five minutes in their UFC 64 match for the vacant title.  Franca is a better fighter than Florian but it would be something of a surprise if this fight goes the distance.  Barring the kind of mistake that leaves him open to a submission (and Sherk has never been tapped out) the champion should take Franca down, avoid his excellent submissions and just patiently smash his way to a stoppage win.

PREDICTION: Sherk by TKO late in the second round.

Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera vs. Heath Herring

This is a curious one.  Former Pride Heavyweight champion Noguiera (29-4-1) is a great addition to the UFC’s suddenly interesting heavyweight division.  But this fight is hardly the ideal debut for one of the division’s finest fighters.  Clearly, the idea is for him to beat Herring (27-12), something he’s already done twice before but this could backfire a little.  Herring made his UFC debut to a great deal of hype in January on a Spike TV ‘Fight Night’ special.  And his performance was execrable.  Allegedly hampered by a serious knee injury (odd that he was fighting again less than three months later, in that case), Herring was embarrassingly bad.  For a man who started working on improving his striking with some long stays in Holland several years he looked like a complete novice.  Sloppy and weak on his feet, he also had no defence for massive underdog Jake O’ Brien’s takedowns.  Time and again, Herring was taken down and while O’ Brien never looked like finishing the big Texan, Herring did very little from the bottom.  Even worse, when the very obvious decision win for O’ Brien was announced, Herring complained about his opponent not wanting a ‘real fight’ and generally acted like a petulant child.  A huge disappointment to Zuffa, a feeble showing to hundreds of thousands seeing him for the first time and a major letdown for his existing fans, his debut was a disaster.  Herring somewhat redeemed himself in his last fight, a UFC 69 preliminary fight with Brad Imes.  A very entertaining, if very sloppy brawling, mauling, mostly-mat based tumbling session, both fighters constantly worked for the full fifteen minutes.  Herring was firmly in charge but really, against Brad Imes, he should have been.  Sadly, only a fraction of the people who saw the O’ Brien fiasco will have seen that fight.  So, Herring goes into this fight as damaged goods to most of the UFC audience.  If Noguiera destroys him then, to much of the paying audience, he’s beaten somebody who really isn’t any good.  If Noguiera wins but struggles, then he’s had a hard time taking out somebody who really isn’t any good.  If Noguiera actually loses, here in the year of the unbelievable upset, then he’s been beaten by somebody who really isn’t any good.  Hardly the ideal scenarios for the immensely talented Brazilian.

Noguiera beat Herring in 2001 and 2004.  It looks like his tri-annual taming of ‘the Texas Crazy Horse’ is due.  Far more talented than Herring on the ground, a much better striker, possessing an incredible chin and losing only to Dan Henderson (a highly questionable decision), Fedor Emelianenko (hardly a disgrace, even twice) and Josh Barnett in fantastic, close fight, Noguiera is a genuinely elite fighter.  Herring clearly isn’t, although he’s been competitive with Noguiera in the past.  First time around they went the distance and in 2004 the first round of their fight was great.  Herring’s kickboxing looked sharp and he did very well defending constant submission attempts on the mat.  Sometimes Noguiera seems to slip into half-speed (see his fights with Pawel Nastula and Hirotaka Yokoi) when he doesn’t feel threatened but when the pressure is on or when he needs to shine brightest, Noguiera is almost unsurpassed.  Creative with his submissions, as soon as this fight hits the ground, ‘Minotauro’ will be continually working for the win.  And he’ll get it.  Look for Noguiera to go 3-0 against Herring, picking up the submission win.

PREDICTION: Noguiera by submission late in the second round.

Tito Ortiz vs. Rashad Evans

Making any kind of solid predictions in 2007 is pretty foolish.  That said, Evans (10-0) WILL win this fight.  Younger, less riddled with injuries, constantly improving and used to fighting bigger stronger men, Evans is on the way up while Ortiz (15-5) looks to be on the slide.  Chronic back and knee injuries haven’t helped Ortiz of late.  But he’s done himself no favours either.  However he tries to spin it, backing out of his boxing ‘exhibition’ with Dana White was at best mishandled and at worst, just plain cowardly.  Is Ortiz really so dim-witted he didn’t know the fight was to actually be filmed and broadcast?  Or was he just lying and furiously trying to cover his tracks?  The entire saga did some real damage to his reputation and Evans is no 37-year-old executive who likes swearing.  He’s a very dangerous 27-year-old coming off three impressive performances.  True the first round of his most recent win saw him fight in a fairly cautious way against the almost-unknown Sean Salmon but Evans finished things with a tremendous high kick, setting the standard for highlight-reel KOs in 2007.  Four months earlier he laid waste to Jason Lambert, brutally silencing those (myself included) who always criticised his lack of finishing skills.  Evans’ real breakthrough performance though was his utterly unarguable decision win over Stephan Bonnar last June.  Showing real maturity, some great wrestling skills and strong conditioning, Evans completely dominated the erratic TUF1 star for the entire fifteen minutes.  A formerly undersized heavyweight with a wild decision win over the humungous Brad Imes, Evans should cope well with Tito’s weight-cutting and strength.

Former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Ortiz may still be one of the promotion’s biggest names and top earners but aside from his name value, trashtalking and persona, he’s offered little of value in his last few fights.  Lucky to escape the first round in his record-shattering rematch with Chuck Liddell, Ortiz ended a fight where he flashes of success on his feet almost curled up in a foetal position as Liddell bashed away with unanswered, barely defended punches.  With a minute left in the round and no sign of Liddell letting up, the fight was stopped.  Tito’s previous two wins were thoroughly predictable and quick demolition jobs on the faded remnants of Ken Shamrock.  His first fight of 2006 was a very close decision win, that more likely should have been a draw, with Forrest Griffin.  Coming on the heels of a similarly close win over Vitor Belfort and a dull, uninspired decision over Patrick Cote.  Ortiz looked great in the opening four minutes against Griffin but was then outboxed, outworked and even at times outwrestled and was lucky to limp away with the win over an opponent just as hobbled, but far less vocal about it, than he was.  Really, Ortiz has only looked good in brief spurts for the last several years while Evans is in great form these days.  After all these years, Ortiz’ weaknesses are very obvious.  Often-injured, far too reliant on his wrestling, too in love with his boxing skills to realise they actually aren’t particularly impressive, the key to beating Ortiz is to neutralise his wrestling, force him onto the defensive and just stay on him to the bitter end or until he finally wilts under sustained punishment.  If not for his poor conditioning, Belfort would probably have beaten Ortiz and ‘the Huntington Beach Bad Boy’s chin has looked wobbly on several occasions.  Evans is more than good enough to exploit those weaknesses and win this one.  His career overseen by one of the sport’s most respected trainers in Greg Jackson and training partners like Nate Marquardt and Diego Sanchez, Evans has a great team behind him.  That, his stellar college wrestling career (far more impressive than most UFC fighters), his age, ongoing improvement and his fast, accurate hands mark him out as a potential future champion.  Ortiz should be the first step on his road to a title shot.  Look for him to make that first step with confidence and a well-deserved decision win.

PREDICTION: Evans by decision.

The Rest:

Coming off a very impressive win over Dokonjonosuke Mishima in April, Kenny Florian (5-3) takes on 24-year-old UFC debutant Alvin Robinson (8-1).  Both are very talented BJJ artists with a fondness for the rear naked choke.  Indeed, that particular technique has accounted for five of Robinson’s wins and three of Florian’s.  Robinson’s only loss came against the dangerously underrated Fabio Holanda while Florian has dropped decisions to Drew Fickett and Sean Sherk and been dominated and finished by Diego Sanchez.  Florian’s greater big fight experience could be the deciding factor in a match where both men’s grappling skills should be severely tested.  Florian’s striking, particularly his low kicks, looked much improved against Mishima and after his gutsy, bloodstained performance in going the full five rounds with Sherk, he’s finally getting the credit he deserves.  ‘Kid’ Robinson could change all that.  But Florian’s striking should give him the edge in a fight that may well be decided around the midway point due to the sharp, accurate elbows the horribly nicknamed ‘KenFlo’ likes to use and almost brought him the Lightweight title.

Equine medicine fan Stephan Bonnar (9-4) returns from suspension, hopefully injury-free and with a nice, glossy mane.  Seriously, everyone makes mistakes, Bonnar’s was of course to blatantly cheat and be gormless enough to get caught doing so, but let’s forget that transgression and move on.  His opponent is another TUF alumni, tattoo-crazy Mike Nickels (5-1).  Bonnar will forever be remembered for winning the Kentucky Derby, sorry, his epic TUF1 finale brawl with Forrest Griffin while Nickels will likely never live down his laughably inept TUF3 fight with Matt Hamil.  Since then, Bonnar has regressed, a victim of injuries and a chaotic training schedule.  Nickels has improved and may spring the upset against a man who struggled to beat Sam Hoger, was gifted a decision win over Keith Jardine and was utterly humbled by Rashad Evans.  Whether his improvement will be enough to earn the win is very questionable though.  Nickels is a competent fighter, tough and good on the mat but Bonnar has been in there with better fighters, including Lyoto Machida and James Irvin, the latter of whom he tapped out in early 2006.  Expect a typical Bonnar fight where he shines at times, seems to gas out early, fails to finish his opponent but rallies in the final round to take a decision win.

Injury-plagued BJJ black belt and training partner of Rich Franklin, Jorge Gurgel (10-2) faces fellow Fortaleza, Brazil native Diego Saraiva (9-4-1) in what looks to be a thoroughly entertaining, fast-paced fight.  A clinical finisher at lower levels, Gurgel has disappointed in his UFC outings.  During a TUF2 that he was tipped to win, he dropped a sloppy decision win to forgotten man Jason Von Flue, partially due to a nasty knee injury.  He fought twice in 2006, dropping a close decision to Mark Hominick in a fight where Gurgel simply couldn’t take the fight to the ground and where his aggressive striking was no match for the Canadian’s superior countering technique.  Most recently, it took him the full three rounds to beat, of all people, Danny Abaddi.  25-year-old Saraiva is also a BJJ black belt but his UFC debut saw him drop a decision to Dustin Hazelett, one of Gurgel’s students.  More accomplished at a higher level in MMA, the five years older Gurgel should win this one.  Saraiva has never been beaten inside the distance and fights between masters of one discipline often end up as a battle of their secondary skills since their primary ones neutralise each other.  Gurgel is likely the better striker and should use his active and underrated kickboxing to take a decision win.

Originally slated to face the very tough Drew Fickett, the ultra-experienced Chris Lytle (22-14-5) instead meets Jason Gilliam (9-1).  Stepping in with just a week’s notice for the injured Fickett, Gilliam has an enormous task ahead of him against his fellow Indiana native.  Gilliam is a good wrestler but Lytle just has too much experience and too much skill for the man coming off a first round submission loss to Jamie Varner at UFC 68.  Lytle fought on the same show, stubbornly taking Matt Hughes the distance in losing a very clear decision.  A sometime professional boxer, Lytle has been around, fighting in Pancrase, UFC, WEC and Cage Rage.  With fights against Matt Serra, Karo Parisyan, Nick Diaz, Dave Menne, Shonie Carter (all decision losses), Ross Mason, Ronald Jhun, Tiki Ghosn, Pete Spratt, Aaron Riley and Kazuo Misaki (all victories) Lytle is just too experienced, too well-rounded, too polished.  Look for him to beat Gilliam by submission sometime in the opening round.

A very accomplished college wrestler, 25-year-old lightweight Frank Edgar (6-0) has already made his mark in the UFC.  His UFC 67 fight with Tyson Griffin was incredible.  Displaying some great wrestling, shockingly good stand-up, fantastic conditioning and unbelievable resilience in the face of Griffin almost tearing his leg off with a perfect kneebar in the fight’s closing seconds, Edgar was a revelation.  He has serious potential, even with his relative lack of experience in the most talent-crammed division in the promotion.  Canadian opponent Mark Bocek (4-0) also has some excellent grappling credentials, his in BJJ, and also sports an unbeaten record.  With three wins by submission, he could be very dangerous for Edgar but has never gone beyond the first round.  That could be a real problem against a fighter as breathtakingly relentless as Edgar.  Bocek has real talent and could give him problems early but won’t be able to keep up as the fight goes on.  Look for Edgar to grind out a TKO win with punches on the ground late in the second.

Predictions Re-cap:

Anderson Silva TKO4 Nate Marquardt
Sean Sherk TKO2 Hermes Franca
Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera SUB2 Heath Herring
Rashad Evans DEC3 Tito Ortiz
Kenny Florian TKO2 Alvin Robinson
Stephan Bonnar DEC3 Mike Nickels
Jorge Gurgel DEC3 Diego Saraiva
Chris Lytle SUB1 Jason Gilliam
Frank Edgar TKO2 Mark Bocek

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