The two biggest names on the show – Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin have both drawn impressive ratings on Spike in the past and have featured heavily during different seasons of the Ultimate Fighter.  Any show with those two names on would certainly be deemed worthy by Spike TV, especially in a month when they are perfectly happy to carry a live event headlined by Sam Stout and Spencer Fisher.  But if Zuffa present many more shows like this, their so-far triumphant expansion into Europe may falter as they alienate a loyal, knowledgeable fanbase fully aware they are being served up a second-rate product.  The jury is out until the promotion’s September return (and according to some well-informed people that show looks to be huge) but in the meantime this show does have some real positives, despite all the valid criticism.  A middleweight title shot is up for grabs in what looks to be a very competitive fight between Franklin and Yushin Okami and there’s an exceptional looking lightweight fight between two men – Tyson Griffin and Clay Guida –with a lot to prove as they try and remain in contention in the promotion’s most talent-rich division.

Line-up:

Rich Franklin vs. Yushin Okami
Forrest Griffin vs. Hector Ramirez
Tyson Griffin vs. Clay Guida
Rory Singer vs. Jason MacDonald
Eddie Sanchez vs. Colin Robinson
Marcus Davis vs. Jason Tan
Scott Smith vs. Ed Herman
Dustin Hazelett vs. Stevie Lynch

www.ufc.com
June 16th
Belfast, Northern Ireland

Rich Franklin vs. Yushin Okami

With a middleweight title shot, and rematch with Anderson Silva, up for grabs (so long as the winner doesn’t ‘pull an Arlovski’ and prevail in the most boring way imaginable) Franklin (21-2) and Okami (20-3) have something real and tangible to aim for in this, the most unlikely UFC pay-per-view main event in some years.  Originally set to take on young Danish star Martin Kampmann, Franklin now faces a very different fighter.  While Kampmann is an energetic striker, Okami is a bludgeoning, strong and aggressive wrestler and ground n’ pounder.  His matches are rarely pretty but Okami is a fighter who does one thing very well and sticks at it.  His latest win over Mike Swick was a perfect example.  Cruising to a pedestrian decision win, Okami just kept taking him down, keeping him there and handing out methodical punishment.  Not the greatest finisher, Okami has picked up decision wins over some good fighters like Ryuta Sakurai, Eiji Ishikawa and rising star Alan Belcher.  And two of his losses are more than questionable as well.  Twice now, Okami has been stiffed by Hawaiian judges, dropping decisions to Falaniko Vitale and Jake Shields in fights where he did enough to earn the win.  Shields is no joke, but neither is Okami.  His win over Anderson Silva is somewhat deceptive though since he was knocked silly by an illegal upkick while working in Silva’s guard.  Without that athletically exceptional foul, Okami would most likely be 19-4 going into this fight.

But at least Okami emerged from his fight with Silva looking the same way he entered it.  Utterly humbled by Silva at UFC 64, Franklin staggered away, dazed and confused and sporting a nose more crooked than a tin-pot African dictator.  Apparently battling illness, already marked up and putting his faith in the most ridiculous gameplan of 2006 (getting Anderson Silva in a clinch), Franklin looked absolutely awful from TV interviews five days prior to the fight all the way up to the final, merciful stoppage.  His workmanlike destruction of Jason MacDonald at UFC 68 was a much-needed win, but ‘Ace’ looked flat and aside from his usual excellent balance when defending takedowns, he really didn’t impress against an opponent there to give him an ‘easy’ comeback.  There are many valid criticisms of Franklin, particularly his dodgy chin and the fact he’s good in all areas but really excels in none at all.  Zuffa were apparently shocked at the way Silva dismantled him.  Regular contributors to the www.kakutougi.info forum were not.  Kakutougi 1 Zuffa 0.  That was always a bafflingly bad match-up for Franklin but Okami should be a more manageable task.  After all, Franklin looked very good in his dismantling of David Loiseau last March.  So good in fact that he seemed to have ruined Loiseau’s career completely.  The once dynamic ‘Crow’ has never looked the same since.  Franklin has also twice beaten Evan Tanner and bashed some decent fighters.  Like Okami, he has plenty of energy, but may struggle with the Japanese fighter’s wrestling and single-minded intensity.  Both have fallen apart under pressure.  Franklin against Silva and Lyoto Machida and Okami in his only utterly unarguable defeat where he tapped out to escape Amar Suloev’s battering almost four years ago.  On paper, Franklin should win.  He’s a better all-rounder and his unorthodox, looping punches have worked against a variety of good fighters.  He also has some neat submission skills.  But I have a sneaking feeling Okami’s constant pressure will rattler Franklin, putting him off his gameplan and bring the 25-year-old from Kanagawa another repetitive, but clear decision win.  Whether such a victory is enough to actually receive that title shot (Zuffa are practically allergic to a pair of non-English speakers competing in a major fight, anyway) is of course, another matter.

PREDICTION: Okami by decision.

Forrest Griffin vs. Hector Ramirez

Charismatic, jug-eared brawler Griffin (13-4) looks to bounce back from a pair of differently disappointing fights against ‘Sick Dog’ Ramirez (6-2-1).  With all due respect to Ramirez, a very capable fighter who went the distance with Rashad Evans (the soon-to-be-conqueror of Tito Ortiz) and has a 68-second stoppage win over TUF3 winner Kendall Grove on his record, he’s a bit-part player in this fight.  Much like Houston Alexander was in his fight with Keith Jardine.  Or Matt Serra in his fight with Georges St. Pierre.  Or Gabriel Gonzaga in his fight with Mirko Cro Cop.  Oh, right, erm, yes.  Ramirez, despite his inexperience and 0-1 UFC record, is more than capable of upsetting Griffin.  His UFC 65 fight with the physically impressive but often flaky James Irvin was a beautifully ugly brawl.  Ramirez almost finished Irvin in a very exciting first round and was close to ending things in the second before a single punch from Irvin turned things around completely and ended the fight even before Irvin made his tribute to Morten Anderson with Hector’s ribs.  A poor man’s ’Rampage’ he may be and he’s even allied to Jackson’s former trainer Colin Oyama, but Ramirez really is a dangerous fighter and a heavy hitter.  He’s even beaten the mighty Shannon Ritch. 

But seriously, if Griffin loses this one, all the charisma in the world may not save his seemingly floundering top level career.  At UFC 66 in front of the biggest pay-per-view audience in MMA history, Griffin blew it completely.  Entering his fight with the very capable Keith Jardine brimming with overconfidence and on the back of a suspect training regime, Griffin paid for his poor preparation and customary leaky defence by losing to his unspectacular opponent.  That cost him an expected title shot at Chuck Liddell and an astronomical payday.  No wonder he cried like Andy Wang afterwards.  Will Griffin have learned his lesson this time?  Probably.  Despite his carefully honed gimmick, he’s no idiot.  He showed that in his careful win over Stephan ‘Equine Medication’ Bonnar in their UFC 62 co-feature.  When he feels threatened, Griffin is capable of using a gameplan and not simply windmilling his limbs all over the place like a drunken cretin.  If he takes Ramirez seriously, and he should, Griffin will win.  Expect Griffin to take Ramirez down and use his often-ignored submission skills to pick up the first round win.

PREDICTION: Griffin by submission late in the first.

Tyson Griffin vs. Clay Guida

The ‘other’ Griffin (8-1) on the show may well eclipse the bigger star with the same surname in a fight that just has ‘greatness’ stamped all over it.  His UFC 67 battle with Frankie Edgar was a phenomenal display of non-stop action and about as entertaining as a fight could be.  Griffin dropped the unanimous decision but pairing him up with incessantly aggressive cardio machine Guida (21-7) is a piece of matchmaking genius.  Also coming off a decision loss, to Din Thomas, Guida is an uncommonly relentless fighter.  His finest hour was undoubtedly his five round decision win over Josh Thomson last year at the record breaking Strikeforce show in San Jose.  Forcing the action and constantly working for an incredible twenty-five minutes, Guida looked like a new lightweight superstar.  But he’s been plagued by inconsistency and struggled with some quality opponents, going 3-4 since the start of 2006.  He looked great in his UFC debut last October, working constantly before pounding on and finishing Justin James with a second round rear naked choke.  But Guida’s own submission defence has been found lacking.  Decision-prone Yusuke Endo armbarred Guida in the first round of their July 2006 fight in Shooto and as recently as 16 months ago, then-novice Tristan Yunker caught Guida with a rear naked choke in just 77 seconds.  Two other fighters have tapped Guida out as well.  Dropping a decision to Thomas is no disgrace, nor is losing a split decision to the super-talented Gilbert Melendez over five fast-paced rounds just over a year ago but the Yunker and Endo fights are a real worry.  Guida has beaten some quality fighters, most notably Joe Jordan and IFL star Bart Palaszewski and he’s a real talent, who at 25, has years of improvement and success ahead of him.

Both men are very talented wrestlers but Guida should have the edge there.  However, Griffin is a big puncher with short, compact and powerful arms and should have the advantage on their feet.  That said, Edgar used some neat boxing early to neutralise some of Griffin’s wilder swings.  If Guida fights with similar precision and composure he may be able to exploit some of Griffin’s weaknesses.  The Edgar fight was fought at a tremendous pace but Griffin was clearly struggling and breathing heavily halfway through the fight.  Guida has rarely, if ever, looked quite so tired.  Griffin displayed a good chin in the Edgar fight and at times briefly outwrestled a man who was a star wrestler at the elite Clarion College (the same school that produced broken down lunatic Olympian Kurt Angle) as recently as 2004.  Most dramatically, with less than a minute left, and seriously tired, Griffin caught Edgar with a deep kneebar that would have forced practically every other fighter on the planet to tap out.  Clearly, Griffin is always dangerous and only Edgar’s stubbornness and inhuman pain threshold kept him from giving up.  The only loss of Griffin’s almost three-year career could so easily have been a late submission victory instead.  Speaking of victories, Griffin has some good ones.  In his UFC debut he showed some good submission skill to go with his much-hyped striking by outclassing and choking out a clearly inferior Dave Lee.  But most impressive are his stoppage wins over Duane Ludwig and WEC standard-bearer Urijah Faber.  Griffin is a very, very good fighter.  But on his top form, Guida is just as good.  It just depends whether he’s on top form against Griffin.  Guida needs to force the pace all the way and he certainly has the talent to beat the slightly younger Griffin.  Originally trained by David Terrell and now working with Randy Couture in Las Vegas, Griffin has had some expert tutors and has proved he’s dangerous from bell to bell.  This is an exceptionally close, fascinating fight.  A winner is very hard to pick but I’m going for Guida by virtue of his stamina and ability to set an unstoppable, relentless pace for the full fight and score a decision win, so long as he doesn’t suffer any lapses of concentration that would give Griffin a fight ending opening.

PREDICTION: Guida by decision.

Other Fights:

A pair of solid, but unspectacular middleweights face off as Jason MacDonald (18-8) aims to bounce back from his predictable destruction at the hands of Rich Franklin and score his third career win over a TUF contestant.  Ed Herman and Chris Leben have already been choked out by MacDonald and now TUF3 clean freak and aspiring nurse Rory Singer (11-6), a man who simply rolled over and quit in his TUF fight with Herman, could be next in line.  Both men are good on the ground.  And both have glaring weaknesses.  If not for the Stoke-on-Trent man’s impetuousness, Singer would likely have lost by TKO to Ross Pointon when they fought last year.  Heavily floored, Singer was gifted a chance to win when Pointon followed him to the ground and Singer trapped him with his favourite triangle choke.  MacDonald never wanted the Franklin fight and was in any case brought in to lose to Herman and Leben.  Both have some good wins and have been in with good fighters and lost.  Expect plenty of grappling as neither man is particularly confident or proficient on their feet.  Both will be looking for chokes in what may be slow-paced, fairly technical fight.  Expect MacDonald to sink his in first and earn the submission win, sometime around the midway point.

Last seen fleeing for his life as Mirko Cro Cop stalked him in a half-hearted kind of way, Californian brawler Eddie Sanchez (6-1) should get more of a chance to showcase his fighting skills against 38-year-old UFC debutant Colin Robinson (8-2).  Heavy handed and a decent wrestler, Sanchez was being taken apart on the ground by Mario Neto in both men’s UFC debut nine months ago.  That was until Sanchez landed a crushing right hand that emphatically ended the fight early in the second round.  With an extensive boxing background, Robinson is a busy man on an impressive run of success, going 5-0 already in 2007.  Both men are still fairly new to MMA and while Sanchez should be the better grappler, expect this fight to stay on their feet.  Robinson may owe his place on this card more to simply being Irish than his admittedly impressive recent wins but don’t expect a feeble performance.  Instead, look for him to exploit the 24-year-old Sanchez’ woeful defence and raw technique and score an upset stoppage win in the first round of what could be a very entertaining scrap.

Concerned about the sensitivity of him using his ‘Irish Hand Grenade’ nickname (an awful moniker in any circumstances) in a city that was so scarred by terrorism Marcus Davis (11-3) will instead be announced as ‘the Celtic Warrior’ for this welterweight fight.  Off-colour references to war and terrorism clearly aren’t acceptable but stealing a nickname from Irish boxing legend Steve Collins is apparently just fine.  Davis’ English opponent Jason Tan (4-1) is best known for his absorbing fight with Cage Rage regular Alex Reid on the WCFC fiasco in Manchester last March.  Winning a split decision in a fight both men had three hours notice for (I said the show was a fiasco), Tan did well against a much more experienced, heavier fighter and since then has gone 1-1.  First he picked up a submission win over Dutchman Joey Van Wanrooij but then suffered his first professional loss, dropping a decision to the ever-improving Jim Wallhead.  25-year-old former accountant Tan has plenty of potential but 33-year-old Davis will likely have too much experience at a higher level.  His much-talked about boxing skills may be vastly overrated since his professional record was littered with fighters for whom mediocrity was a lofty ambition but the other aspects of Davis’ skill set have improved tremendously since his stint as an irritatingly stubborn and one-dimensional stand-up fighter during TUF2.  8-0 since he lost to cocaine crazy Melvin Guillard at the TUF2 finale in November 2005, Davis has beaten some good fighters.  An aggressive southpaw, he surprisingly choked out Forrest Petz and then decisioned Shonie Carter in a desperately boring fight late last year.  Against Pete Spratt he controlled the first round on the mat but then showed real weakness in defending against all kinds of kicks early in the second, but displayed some inventiveness with a nice leg trip takedown and then ended things with an Achilles lock that Spratt was utterly clueless to defend against.  Seriously, my girlfriend’s dog may be more adept at submission defence than Spratt.  Tan definitely won’t be so hopeless on the ground as Spratt was, and in fact he’s a very good grappler, but Davis should be able to control and generally outwork him for a decision win.

Thoroughly generic card-filler Scott Smith (11-3) meets angry ginger middleweight Ed Herman (12-5) in a fight with little ramifications for the wider 185 pound division but one which should provide plenty of action.  Neither Smith nor Herman will ever be title contenders, despite Herman’s curiously inflated opinion of his own worth.  But they were separately involved in two of the most dramatic UFC fights in recent memory.  Herman’s TUF 3 finale fight last June with Kendall Grove was a superb fight and Smith’s last-ditch, almost-finished, one-punch KO of an onrushing Pete Sell in November was a finish straight out of a highly unlikely Rocky film.  Herman, with a long association with Team Quest and a good track record on smaller shows, should be the favourite.  The superior wrestler, he’s also faced tougher competition and while he seems to falter when it truly counts, he should be busier and better than Smith.  Both men are coming off quick wins but their defeats to Patrick Cote and David Terrell (in Smith’s case) and the still-learning but potential-packed Grove and Jason MacDonald (in Herman’s case) really exposed their limitations.  Look for Herman to use his wrestling, ground n’ pound and far better ground skills to grind out a second round stoppage win.

Emerging talent Dustin Hazelett (8-3) faces unbeaten Irishman Stevie Lynch (4-0) at welterweight in a fight that looks certain not to please the Belfast crowd.  Hazelett is a gifted young fighter, and an entertaining one, but him beating the local fighter may not endear him to the more partisan of Irish fans.  But they, and everyone else, should be impressed with his lively mixture of quality grappling and energetic striking.  A former amateur boxer, Lynch will need to keep the fight standing to have much chance of success.  But Hazelett is by far the biggest challenge of the 36-year-old’s career.  A trainee of Jorge Gurgel, Hazelett impressed with a March 2006 split decision win over debutant Rhalan Gracie and since then has gone 4-1, his only loss coming against Tony DeSouza in a fight where he was outclassed on the mat.  Expect Hazelett to take Lynch down, ensure the right position with his slick, fast groundwork and capture the first round submission win.

Predictions Re-cap:

Yushin Okami DEC3 Rich Franklin
Forrest Griffin SUB1 Hector Ramirez
Clay Guida DEC3 Tyson Griffin
Jason MacDonald SUB2 Rory Singer
Colin Robinson TKO1 Eddie Sanchez
Marcus Davis DEC3 Jason Tan
Ed Herman TKO2 Scott Smith
Dustin Hazelett SUB1 Stevie Lynch

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