True, the returns of Karo Parisyan and Ivan Salaverry are very welcome additions but this show’s business success lives and dies on Zuffa convincing people that Jackson is a real threat to the promotion’s biggest star.  The hardcore fanbase know he is (or at least should be on paper) but demonstrating to a wider audience that a guy with a single, and non-too-impressive UFC appearance under his belt can take Liddell’s title is another matter.

Line-up:

UFC Light Heavyweight title: Chuck Liddell vs. Quinton Jackson
Terry Martin vs. Ivan Salaverry
Josh Burkman vs. Karo Parisyan
Houston Alexander vs. Keith Jardine
Kalib Starnes vs. Chris Leben
Thiago Silva vs. James Irvin
Sean Salmon vs. Alan Belcher
Jeremy Stephens vs. Din Thomas
Carmelo Marrero vs. Wilson Gouveia

May 26th
MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
www.ufc.com

UFC Light Heavyweight title: Chuck Liddell vs. Quinton Jackson

Now, THIS is a main event.  Defending champion and MMA superstar Liddell (20-3) puts his title on the line for the fifth time against the last man to actually beat him.  Challenger Jackson (26-6) dominated their first fight, back in November 2003 and another win here would not only see him lift his first meaningful title it would likely ensure a third, even bigger fight later this year or sometime in 2008.  Liddell’s immense drawing power means this should be one of the biggest UFC events of the year and Jackson’s big chance to prove his many detractors over the last couple of years wrong once and for all.

Nine years younger than the champion at 28, ‘Rampage’ has struggled since outclassing and battering Liddell to a second round TKO defeat.  He’s gone 7-3 but his decision win over the inexperienced Dong Sik Yoon was thoroughly unimpressive and he may have been a little lucky to get the split decision verdict over Matt Lindland and got a gift from the judges in his decision win over Murilo ‘Ninja’ Rua.  His UFC debut was a disappointing one, despite him knocking Marvin Eastman out in the second round.  But prior to the finish, ‘Rampage’ looked uninspired and flat.  There have been some high points, most notably a brief return to his destructive best against Hirotaka Yokoi and his unforgettable powerbomb KO of Ricardo Arona.  But even then, Arona briefly KO’ed Jackson with upkicks earlier in the fight.  If the boring Brazilian had been a little more alert and followed up his advantage instead of messing around and chatting to the referee, Jackson would never have been in a position to finish the fight in such emphatic style.  Jackson also suffered a trio of losses at the hands and knees of some of Chute Boxe’s finest, with Wanderlei Silva TKO’ing him with a succession of knees just a couple of hours a after the Liddell triumph and cleanly knocking him out with more of the same in their rematch eleven months later.  The lowest point may have been his injury-assisted demolition at the hands of Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua, the circumstances around which almost ended his association with then-employers Pride.  Injured and with little advance warning and time to train, Jackson was simply taken apart by the energetic ‘Shogun’.  The win over Liddell was Jackson’s career-best performance.  He’d rarely looked so unstoppable before, and never has done since.  That fight, the semi-finals of the 2003 Middleweight Grand Prix, probably should never have taken place.  Three months earlier, Jackson had been the lucky recipient of a split decision win over Murilo Bustamante in the tournament’s first round.

Liddell’s tale since November 2003 has been very, very different.  He’s gone 7-0 and stopped every opponent inside the distance.  First, he humbled Tito Ortiz in their long-postponed grudge match.  Then he sparked out Vernon White in a wild brawl that looked right of a Wild West saloon bar.  Next, he blasted Randy Couture into oblivion to take the UFC Light Heavyweight title.  His first defence saw him thoroughly outclass, demoralise and break Jeremy Horn over three and a half rounds of calculating efficiency that also answered any questions about his stamina.  Then he knocked Couture out again before needing just 95 seconds to finish off a wild, untamed and quite possibly unhinged Renato Sobral.  Lastly, he helped draw the biggest pay-per-view audience in MMA history to see him once again batter former friend Ortiz.  There have been some problems along the way, most of them outside the cage, but Liddell has been on a phenomenal winning streak.  He may be older, and he may spend too much time partying, as evidenced by his infamous ‘Good Morning Texas’ appearance (does anyone really buy the ‘sleep medication’ story?) but Liddell has unquestionably looked far better since late 2003 than Jackson has.  Throw in the small matter of a torn quadricep muscle that Liddell kept secret from even Dana White which was at least partially to blame for his curious non-performance against Jackson and things don’t look too good for ‘Rampage’ this time around.  That isn’t to say the first fight was a fluke.  Jackson was incredible in that fight and he just battered Liddell standing, took him down and smashed him on the floor, forcing Liddell’s corner to throw in the towel.  Just don’t expect a repeat performance.

One other determining factor could be their respective motivations.  Just as he was in his revenge fights with Jeremy Horn and Randy Couture, Liddell will be looking to avenge, and in the curious logic of fighting, somehow ‘erase’ the only losses on his record.  His near-flawless performance in the Horn rematch at UFC 54 and his UFC 52 & 57 destructions of Couture should worry Jackson.  For his part, ‘Rampage’ should be fully motivated for his title shot but I suspect his signing on for this fight has far more to do with money than anything else.  A few months ago, Jackson wanted no part of Liddell.  Evasive about the subject in several interviews and clearly uncomfortable when telling people he’d fight the champion “anytime” at a pre-UFC 70 press conference in February, Jackson has never been convincing on this issue.  Even more tellingly, this would be the third fight of Jackson’s three-fight WFA contract (picked up by Zuffa when the woefully unrealistic company shut down after just one sparsely attended financial disaster).  And Zuffa simply don’t give fighters title shots without having already signed them up for further fights.  Its hardly a stretch to assume they tore up Jackson’s existing deal and lured him to the negotiating table with a hefty pay rise.  Jackson’s never made a secret of being motivated by money and should be applauded for that honesty but its hard to escape the feeling that won’t be enough to see him through this fight if things get very tough.  Particularly when Liddell’s own motivation is so much more personal.

At the time of writing the odds on this fight are -280 for Liddell and +240 for Jackson.  That seems a decent bet, particularly in a year littered with stunning upsets.  Jackson winning might be something of a surprise but it wouldn’t be a shocker at all.  The problem is, even with Liddell’s extra-curricular activities, his recent tendency towards picking up injuries and that infamous Good Morning Texas appearance aside, Liddell is, once the bell rings, a better fighter.  He even has a better wrestling background than Jackson, (college compared to some high school) although he rarely needs more than a sprawl.  Their first fight would normally suggest another Jackson win but Liddell’s injury and even more so their respective results and performances since, point to Liddell using his excellent takedown defence, effective footwork, much-underrated stamina and those weirdly effective looping power punches to pick up a late stoppage win.  Jackson should make this Liddell’s toughest fight in years but eventually the champion will stop him, even if it takes a monstrous amount of sustained punishment to do so.

PREDICTION: Liddell by TKO midway through the fourth.

Undercard:

A fairly one-dimensional wrestler Terry Martin (15-2) is coming off his biggest ever win, a 14 second KO of veteran Jorge Rivera, but I’d be very surprised if he found a way to beat Ivan Salaverry (12-4).  One of the smartest, most adaptable fighters in the sport, Salaverry is also coming off a great win, his near-perfect destruction of Art Santore at the same WFA fiasco where Quinton Jackson decisioned Matt Lindland.  A genuine all-rounder, Salaverry should find a way to combat the squat, powerful Martin’s takedowns and make a triumphant return to the promotion that so unceremoniously dumped him for his pathetic effort in an embarrassing fight with Nate Marquardt in August 2005.  The main event of the first ever Ultimate Fight Night on spike TV, his decision loss to the former King of Pancrase was so bereft of action it was edited off replay showings in favour of a fight involving Kenny Florian.  Look for Salaverry to be much more active this time against a fighter he has a major skill advantage over.  Salaverry should win, and inside the distance, perhaps by wearing Martin down with low kicks and punches, before hurting him on the ground for the TKO win.

Aside from the main event, the fight between Josh Burkman (8-3) and Karo Parisyan (16-4) may be the only genuinely exciting match on the show.  Burkman is far from title contention at 170 pounds but this fight should still be great to watch.  A fighter with plenty of heart, stamina and good all-round skills, Burkman is a good opponent for the most entertaining decision-prone fighter in the sport.  Parisyan’s relentlessness and seemingly boundless energy make practically every fight a near-guaranteed fifteen minutes of action.  His loss to Diego Sanchez last August was an incredible fight, as was his January 2004 defeat to Georges St. Pierre.  And his wins over Nick Diaz and Matt Serra were memorable, all-action encounters too.  Parisyan is hardly a great finisher, having just two inside-the distance wins since early 2003 but his frenetic blend of near-elite level Judo and non-stop (albeit sloppy) punching will be enough for him to grind out another satisfyingly fast-paced win over Burkman.  Parisyan by a very clear, very enjoyable decision.

It’s confession time.  I have no idea who Houston Alexander (6-1) is.  I’ve never seen him fight.  But the 35-year-old veteran of Gladiator Challenge and Extreme Challenge shows is making an enormous leap up in class to face one of the UFC’s most efficient, underrated and for that very reason, dangerous light heavyweights, Keith Jardine (12-2-1).  Coming off his decisive TKO win over Forrest Griffin at UFC 66, Jardine can’t be too happy about fighting Alexander.  Surely his reward for beating Griffin should have been something more than this?  4-1 for Zuffa, with his only loss being an awfully judged fight where he clearly beat Stephan Bonnar and somehow still wound up the loser, Jardine simply should not lose this fight.  Expect him to win using his usual combination of low kicks, punches, strength and good wrestling.  The far more experienced Jardine, possibly inside the distance.

If Chris Leben (16-3) learned how to punch properly he’d be a very, very dangerous middleweight.  His natural aggression, sheer toughness and heavy hands have taken him a long way but his limitations were beautifully exposed by Anderson Silva last June.  And his weaknesses on the mat were there for all to see in his UFC 66 fight with Jason MacDonald.  Put to sleep with a guillotine choke in a truly non-descript fight, Leben needs to bounce back with a strong performance against another TUF graduate, Kalib Starnes (7-1-1).  The Canadian is more skilled than Leben and holds a win over MacDonald.  Like Leben, he’s coming off a loss, in his case to Yushin Okami.  Leben hits harder but Starnes has more effective ways to win.  Look for him to pull off a win over a fighter who has had trouble with his stamina in the past.  Leben is pretty dangerous for all his flaws – just ask Jorge Santiago and Jorge Rivera – but Starnes should find a way to win, possibly late in the fight or by decision.

In a scheduled non-televised preliminary fight, the highly-touted, unbeaten and very aggressive Brazilian Thiago Silva (9-0) should make an impressive and quick debut against maddeningly inconsistent UFC veteran James Irvin (12-3).  Expect Silva to finish Irvin early.  Sean Salmon (9-2) looks to bounce back from his jaw-dropping high kick KO loss to Rashad Evans in January against the aggressive, talented Alan Belcher (9-3).  Look for Belcher to himself rebound from his recent loss to Kendall Grove by beating Salmon late in the fight.  At lightweight, Din Thomas (19-6) and fresh from a decision win over Clay Guida should be far too experienced and simply too good, for 20-year-old UFC new boy Jeremy Stephens (8-1).  A heavy-handed puncher from Iowa, Stephens will most likely fall victim to Thomas’ well-rounded arsenal and drop a very clear, very unanimous decision.  Finally, at light heavyweight, expect American Top Team fighter Wilson Gouveia (8-4) to outclass the one-dimensional Carmelo Marrero (6-1).  A good wrestler, Marrero will have real difficulty with Gouveia’s effective kickboxing and high level submission skills.  Gouveia has had real problems with his stamina in the past but this fight probably won’t go beyond the first two rounds.  And Gouveia should win it.

Predictions Re-cap:

Chuck Liddell TKO4 Quinton Jackson
Ivan Salaverry TKO2 Terry Martin
Karo Parisyan DEC3 Josh Burkman
Keith Jardine TKO2 Houston Alexander
Kalib Starnes DEC3 Chris Leben
Thiago Silva TKO1 James Irvin
Alan Belcher TKO3 Sean Salmon
Din Thomas DEC3 Jeremy Stephens
Wilson Gouveia SUB2 Carmelo Marrero

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