Unusually for a major UFC show these days, this one features ten fights and a far higher percentage of Europeans than normal.  There’s also far more of a ‘big man’ flavour as all of the main card’s five matches feature 205 pounders and heavyweights.  Clearly booked with the intention of treating the crowd to some high quality stand-up action, the show features plenty of dynamic, exciting strikers.  And Lyoto Machida.  Underneath, there are some intriguing matches and certainly for European fans, some notable UFC debuts.

Line-up:

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
David Heath vs. Lyoto Machida
Michael Bisping vs. Elvis Sinosic
Andrei Arlovski vs. Fabricio Werdum
Assuerio Silva vs. Cheick Kongo
Matt Grice vs. Terry Etim
Junior Assuncao vs. David Lee
Victor Valimaki vs. Alessio Sakara
Dennis Siver vs. Jess Liaudin
Edilberto Crocota vs. Paul Taylor

April 21st
MEN Arena, Manchester, England
www.ufc.com

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

It’s hard not to feel a little sorry for Gonzaga (7-1).  Originally scheduled for a Heavyweight title shot at Tim Sylvia some six weeks ago, (a very winnable fight for the BJJ black belt) he was bumped from that slot when Zuffa decided they actually needed a big name headliner instead.  The big, strong, technically sound Brazilian is a credible title challenger in a growing heavyweight talent pool, but he means very little as a main event draw.  Instead, Sylvia’s delusions of his own awesomeness came crashing down around his ears at UFC 68 as Randy Couture humbled him over five awe-inspiring rounds.  But despite Gonzaga’s credentials and the recent massive upsets (St. Pierre-Serra was even more stunning), very few people are giving him much of a chance in this fight, despite him not having lost a fight in almost three and a half years.  He looked excellent in his UFC 66 win over Carmelo Marrero, just utterly schooling his opponent on the mat and finishing things with a beautiful armbar late in the first round.  That was certainly a vast improvement on his disastrous UFC debut.  Back in November 2005 Gonzaga eventually KO’ed Kevin Jordan in the waning moments of a truly appalling fight.  At least Gonzaga had an excuse.  Some horrible personal problems obviously contributed to his performance and he was better in his second outing.  Facing Fabiano Scherner, he showed a little more of his genuine ability in winning a sloppy stand-up brawl but his destruction of Marrero really made people sit up and take notice.

Sadly for Gonzaga, his opponent in Manchester is no Jordan, Scherner or Marrero.  He’s the most dangerous heavyweight in the sport.  Cro Cop (22-4-2) didn’t have the violently destructive UFC debut many were expecting earlier this year.  True, he stalked and finished a thoroughly outclassed and evidently fearful Eddie Sanchez inside a round but something seemed missing.  Perhaps Cro Cop was simply so obsessed with ending it with that infamous left high kick or perhaps he was simply unable to cut off his opponent’s retreat in the differently-angled, larger expanse of the Octagon.  Perhaps he simply felt no threat from the back-pedalling, inexperienced Sanchez and decided a casual approach would be fine.  Whatever the truth, Cro Cop has a track record of underestimating opponents and while he’d be foolish to do that here, it’s possible he will do just that.  Never uncertain of his own skills, the man who tore through Wanderlei Silva and Josh Barnett on a single night in September 2006 will be confident of brushing Gonzaga aside in style.  On their feet this should be no problem.  Gonzaga is a reasonable striker but Cro Cop is so far beyond him in terms of technical skill and experience that it’s a complete mismatch.  But if Gonzaga can close the distance and take Cro Cop down (and he does have good takedowns) things will get very interesting.  But Cro Cop has surrounded himself with some very good grapplers in training.  The only man to ever beat Gonzaga, Fabricio Werdum, is no longer part of Cro Cop’s team but he’s been training with Polish Judo legend Pawel Nastula and former BJJ World champion Marcio Corletta.  If Gonzaga takes Cro Cop down, and works him over by the cage, it won’t be because the Croatian star was unprepared.  That really is Gonzaga’s best chance.  Only his second fight inside a cage, Cro Cop will struggle if pressed up against the fence on his back.  But the likelier outcome for this fight is Gonzaga being added to a long list of quality fighters Cro Cop has finished inside the distance.  Look for his clinical kickboxing skills to make the difference as Cro Cop sprawls, counters and finally stalks his prey to win the fight.

PREDICTION: Cro Cop by KO early in the second.

Davd Heath vs. Lyoto Machida

Replacing Forrest Griffin (out with a knee problem) with just over a month’s notice is no easy task.  But undefeated 31-year-old Heath (7-0) at least gets a chance to shine for the first time.  While he’s 2-0 in UFC, neither of his previous fights against Victor Valimaki and Corey Walmsley made the main broadcast.  Sadly for Heath, his opponent is a very difficult one.  In every way imaginable.  The protégé of the ‘still-cyco-after-all-these-years’ Antonio Inoki, Machida (9-0) is simply very, very dull.  An unorthodox counter-striker, his WFA match with Vernon White last July was pitiful.  His UFC debut in February was better, but tellingly, that decision win over Sam ‘I am not a thief’ Hoger was buried in the untelevised prelims.  Zuffa acquired Machida when they asset-stripped the corpse of the WFA and on paper, he’s a good acquisition.  With wins over former UFC champions Rich Franklin (in truly dominant fashion) and BJ Penn (a total snooze fest over the bloated Hawaiian), Machida has undoubtedly mixed it up with better opposition than Heath.  The problem is that since his crushing TKO win over Franklin in December 2003, Machida just hasn’t been impressive.  His May 2004 split decision win over K-1 star Sam Greco owes more to generous judging than anything else.  Against Penn he was able to just use his size and spoiling style to score a decision win.  An aggressive striker like Heath may bring out the best in his karate influenced, southpaw, Brazilian/Japanese opponent but he’ll have to really chase Machida and force him into a fight.  If he can continually pressure Machida this may be interesting.  If he allows Machida to slip into his now-usual pattern of boring but effective counter-fighting, this could descend into total boredom in a hurry.  Look for Machida to score the decision win in the worst fight of the night.

PREDICTION: Machida by decision.

Michael Bisping vs. Elvis Sinosic

This fight was NOT made with the intention of anything other than a win for England’s own UFC posterboy Bisping (12-0).  And as ever, ‘the Count’ should more than live up to the very high expectations placed upon him.  Stylistically, this is set up for Bisping to impress against a good, credible opponent whose main weaknesses (striking on his feet) are Bisping’s strengths.  Not the biggest 205 pounder around, Bisping might struggle with high quality wrestlers at this weight.  But Sinosic (8-9-2) isn’t the best, or most powerful wrestler around.  Awkward on his feet, although that part of his game is much-improved, Sinosic is a gifted submission stylist, much like Bisping’s last victim Eric Schafer.  Ominously for Bisping, even after so much work on his wrestling, Schafer took him down early in their back-and-forth UFC 66 fight.  If Sinosic does the same things will get very interesting.  Bisping has often shown his ability to get up off his back and then quickly bash his opponent to defeat.  He’s done it against Miika Mehmet, Ross Pointon and Schafer.  But none of them are as good on the ground as Sinosic.  Still, there are plenty of reasons why the 36-year-old Australian is the underdog in this fight.  Sinosic is 1-5 for UFC but is coming off a pair of armbar wins in smaller shows.  His last victory saw him tap out Mark Epstein in December.  The only opponent Bisping and Sinosic have in common, the Australian dealt with Epstein with far more ease than the TUF III winner did.  But that really was a matter of how their styles matched up.  Also, Bisping’s two wars with Epstein came in 2004.  ‘The Count’ has improved tremendously since then.  Bisping’s sheer aggression, his heavy hands, powerful kicks and those flying knees will be too much for the gangly Sinosic.  True, Elvis KO’ed Roberto Traven and wobbled Forrest Griffin, but Bisping is a better, more effective striker than either of those two.  Also working against Sinosic is his fragile skin.  He’s been busted open in several fights, with Renato Sobral making a real mess of him en route to a ferocious beating the last time UFC came to England.  Displaying tremendous heart, Sinosic lasted the distance and Bisping may have to either badly hurt, slice open or cleanly KO the ‘King of Rock n Rumble’ to stop him inside the distance.  Boasting incredible stamina, Bisping is capable of keeping up the pressure from bell to bell, for three rounds.  Sinosic won’t be able to deal with that kind of pace.  Bisping has never needed a judge’s verdict in his career.  He shouldn’t here either.  Look for him to KO his opponent in style after putting on a real show for his countrymen.

PREDICTION: Bisping by KO midway through the second.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Fabricio Werdum

Few people may be giving Gonzaga much of a chance against Cro Cop, but one Brazilian who could pull off an upset over a feared European striker is Werdum (9-2-1).  Cro Cop’s former BJJ trainer, Werdum has rarely been the most exciting heavyweight in the sport, and his striking could definitely do with some serious work, but he’s certainly capable of winning this fight.  The three-time BJJ World champion and second place ADCC finisher only started learning the sport aged 20 after being choked out during a fight over a woman at a party.  Now, nine years later, Werdum has been in with some of the sport’s best fighters and at times, been impressive.  At others, he’s looked very sloppy and tentative on his feet.  He’s been the distance with Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera, dropping a very clear decision in a fairly repetitive fight that saw both BJJ masters mostly boxing.  Werdum did very well on his feet in his win over Alistair Overeem, proving that his striking, while not pretty or positive, can be effective.  He was more aggressive in his decision win over Jon Olav Einemo and at times he showed off some good punches and up-kicks in his split decision loss to Sergei Kharitonov.  Werdum has a good chin, though he’s been dropped a few times, and is very quick to recover when hurt.  An exceptional grappler, his submissions over Roman Zentsov and Tom Erickson were perfectly set up and he’s beaten respected fighters like Ebenezer Fontes Braga and most recently, Aleksander Emelianenko.  The only man to beat Gabriel Gonzaga (until most likely the main event of this show), Werdum is no stranger to the UK, having made a winning MMA debut there in June 2002.  Beating Arlovski (10-5) will be a much more difficult task than the one he faced triangling Tengiz Tedoradze but it’s an achievable one.

Why is that?  First of all, there’s the very obvious question of Arlovski’s chin.  Werdum is not the world’s best striker.  But neither is Tim Sylvia (no matter what he likes to think) and he destroyed an on-rushing Arlovski with a single right hand to the chin in their second fight.  That wasn’t the first time Arlovski’s chin had let him down either.  A sharp combination from Pedro Rizzo finished him off and his MMA debut ended disastrously when Viacheslav Datsik KO’ed him back in 1999.  Can Werdum knock Arlovski out?  It’s certainly possible, if unlikely.  Can Werdum submit Arlovski?  Again, it’s certainly possible.  Arlovski’s Sambo background is much-talked about.  True he submitted a confused Sylvia in their first fight and armbarred Aaron Brink back in 2000 but on the mat, he just doesn’t have Werdum’s experience of applying his submission skills to a fighting situation.  He began seriously training in Sambo around 8 years ago, winning a number of international competitions, but it’s something he’s rarely used in his MMA career.  Werdum, the long, lean grappler has used his own submission skills many times.  On the ground, Werdum should have the advantage, unless they’re pressed up against the fence.  Lacking experience in the cage, Werdum may be at a serious disadvantage there.  Arlovski used the cage to his advantage last time he fought, destroying another BJJ star Marcio Cruz in December.  But Werdum is a more-rounded, much more experienced fighter than Cruz.  Both Arlovski and Werdum are 6’4” but Werdum is naturally much lighter than his chiselled opponent.  Arlovski should be far stronger and is by far the more dynamic, aggressive fighter.  He’ll attack relentlessly, but Werdum is a skilled, if boring counter-fighter, able to quickly capitalise on his opponent’s mistakes.  He’s also fought better competition over the last couple of years.  Insulated from the wider heavyweight division for so long, Arlovski was a big fish in the small UFC pond for most of the 2003 to 2006 period.  Fighting Sylvia three times and destroying the likes of Paul Buentello (in 15 seconds) and Justin Eilers (whose post-fight injury report read like he’d survived some kind of plane crash) may not have been the best preparation for the suddenly talent-rich UFC heavyweight division.  Werdum’s best chance is to subdue, neutralise and tie up Arlovski with clinching, takedowns and active mat work.  Frustrated, the ultra-aggressive Belarussian may then open himself up to making mistakes, digging himself further deeper into a hole.  It may not be pretty, and let’s be honest, few Werdum fights are, but the Brazilian should be able to do that long enough, and avoid Arlovski’s vicious punches with his spoiling and grappling tactics, to pull off a surprise win, either with a late TKO of his tiring opponent or more likely, by decision.

PREDICTION: Werdum by decision.

Undercard:

Seasoned Brazilian veteran Assuerio Silva (12-5) should be too well-rounded for the unbelievably one-dimensional Cheick Kongo (9-3-1) in what could be a very entertaining heavyweight clash.  0-2 in UFC, Silva showed little beyond a lack of submission defence against Brandon Vera and an inability to deal with a tall striker against ‘Mr Deadly Jab’ Tim Sylvia.  But the 32-year-old is a better fighter than those two matches would suggest.  And as long as he can avoid the towering Kongo’s quick, effective knees and take the fight to the mat, he should make short work of the Frenchman.  Kongo’s ground game appears non-existent though he did look impressive against fairly limited UFC opposition with his first round wins over the late Gilbert Aldana and over Christian Wellisch.  But the ordinary Carmelo Marrero thoroughly exposed Kongo as nothing more than a kickboxer.  Former Chute Boxe fighter Silva should certainly do the same.  Getting involved in a stand-up battle may generally be to Silva’s liking but it might be a very silly strategy here.  Instead, look for him to take Kongo down and walk away with his first UFC victory, by submission.

Unbeaten scouser Terry Etim (7-0) is being touted as ‘the next big thing’ in British MMA.  ‘Big’ is a relative term at 155 pounds, but Etim, who only debuted in 2005, has already made an impact.  He’s reeled off six straight submission wins and has been sharpening up his BJJ skills even further with some training in Brazil.  The hype could well be justified for the 21-year-old as well.  His striking is very crisp, he’s coming off a win over the very durable, far more experienced Sami Berik and this won’t be his first high profile fight at the MEN Arena.  Last March he fought on the infamously chaotic WCFC show, scoring a 59 second submission win in a fight laughably ‘refereed’ by recreational cannibal Mike Tyson.  True, this show is a far bigger deal but fighting in front of a few thousand fans won’t be an entirely new experience for the gifted young fighter.  Opponent Matt Grice (8-0) is no pushover though.  A very strong wrestler who placed second in the High School nationals in 2000.  His college wrestling career was ruined by injuries but Grice, who like Etim debuted as a professional fighter in 2005, is by far the most gifted wrestler Etim has faced.  There are no notable names on Grice’s record but, like Etim, the 25-year-old could have a bright future ahead of him.  Grice has the stamina to take a decision win, while Etim’s own cardio has barely been tested beyond the first round.  This should be a very, very entertaining fight.  Etim will have plenty of support (Liverpool is very close to Manchester and he’s a good ticket-seller in his hometown) and there should be a real atmosphere for this one.  Somebody will lose their unbeaten record.  If Etim can adapt quickly to fighting a good wrestler, that somebody will be Grice.  Etim by submission in a very fast-paced match.

Both Junior Assuncao (4-2) and former Cage Rage regular David Lee (5-2) are 0-1 in UFC competition.  Atlanta based Capoeira/BJJ practitioner Assuncao was outclassed and choked out last October by the gifted Kurt Pellegrino while Lee lost in very similar circumstances to Tyson Griffin just three weeks earlier.  Losing to Pellegrino and Griffin is no disgrace for either man and both are decent fighters.  Neither will ever be troubling the upper-tier fighters in the 155 pound division but with good submission skills and some wild striking techniques, they should put on an entertaining show.  Neither man has ever gone the distance but in a closely matched fight that could go either way, look for Assuncao to sneak a close decision win.

Canada’s Victor Valimaki (9-3) returns to the UFC after his December split decision loss to David Heath, looking to use his aggressive stand-up against former professional boxer Alessio Sakara (10-5) in what should be another high-energy fight.  Valimaki impressed in the Heath fight and has decision wins over Vernon White and, somewhat less impressively, the remnants of Dan Severn.  Brazil based Italian Sakara, now 1-2, with one no-contest for Zuffa has had an up-and-down UFC tenure.  In his debut he was obliterating the limited Ron Faircloth until being kicked squarely and horrifyingly in the balls.  He returned to pound out a decision win over Elvis Sinosic but his ground weaknesses were exploited by Dean Lister and late replacement Drew McFedries TKO’ed him in a furious fight at UFC 65.  Coming off that loss, Sakara will look to use his boxing skills (he has some particularly nice bodyshots) to punish Valimaki.  Sakara’s chin and stamina may be suspect and if this goes into the third round it may favour the Canadian.  But look for Sakara to end things earlier, using his fists.

The night’s only all-European clash sees London based Frenchman Jess Liaudin (10-8) take on Germany’s Dennis Siver (10-3).  The experienced, likeable Liaudin rebounded after a couple of difficult years (and a short-lived retirement) by going 3-0 in 2006, all of them victories over respected UK fighters Paul Jenkins, Lee Doski and Ross Mason.  Primarily a submission stylist, former Cage Rage regular Liaudin has fought in the US and Japan and has a clear edge in experience over his short, powerful opponent.  With losses to Shonie Carter, rising British star Paul Daley and Hidetaka Monma, Liaudin’s ordinary record is dotted with recognisable names.  All three of Siver’s losses have come against good fighters in Fabricio Nascimento, Arni Isaakson and Daniel Weichel but most notably, all three have come by submission.  Siver is improving off his back, as evidenced by his come-from-behind armbar win over Jim Wallhead in December, but he’s well behind Liaudin in terms of mat technique.  That should be the difference here.  An aggressive striker, Siver should make things difficult for Liaudin early but once they hit the mat, look for the more seasoned Frenchman to pick up the win.

In the night’s welterweight opener, Edilberto ‘Crocota’ de Oliveira (8-0-1) faces British kickboxer Paul Taylor (6-1-1).  Like many of the fights on this show, this one promises plenty of action.  A state boxing champion in Brazil, a protégé of Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera and training partner of Anderson Silva, a third place at the 2005 world BJJ championships, the 24-year-old Crocota could turn into something special.  Taylor, a veteran of early Cage Rage shows is a very tough fighter with notable wins over Jess Liaudin and Zelg Galesic (surviving a broken arm along the way).  Very dangerous with his hands and feet, Taylor may be suspect on the mat.  Pancrase veteran Yuki Sasaki armbarred him last May but in fairness to Taylor, Sasaki is a very, very good fighter with almost a decade of professional experience against some top talent.  Crocota has yet to pick up any wins of international note, having fought almost exclusively for Noguiera’s Bahia, Brazil-based ‘Minotauro Fights’ promotion.  This is a huge change for the man who debuted in late 2004, as he makes his overseas debut in front of an immense crowd.  Despite their similar number of professional fights, Taylor has more experience, debuting in 2002.  He also boasts near-unlimited stamina and may be the more technically proficient striker than his mauling, slugging opponent.  Look for Taylor’s unbelievable will to win bring him through a very, very tough fight, most likely by a late stoppage.

Predictions:

Mirko Cro Cop KO2 Gabriel Gonzaga
Lyoto Machida DEC3 David Heath
Michael Bisping KO2 Elvis Sinosic
Fabricio Werdum DEC3 Andrei Arlovski
Assuerio Silva SUB1 Cheick Kongo
Terry Etim SUB1 Matt Grice
Junior Assuncao DEC3 David Lee
Alessio Sakara TKO1 Victor Valimaki
Jess Liaudin SUB2 Dennis Siver
Paul Taylor TKO3 Edilberto Crocota

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