The Miletich camp is based just 400 miles away and there should be significant support for Hughes.  Heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia is based there too but he should be expecting a more hostile reception.  The storyline and context to his fight with Randy Couture almost guarantees the bigger, younger, defending champion being viewed as ‘the heel’.  It’s bad enough he’s facing one of the sport’s most likeable and widely respected legends but the last two live audiences Sylvia has ‘entertained’ treated him like the long-lost brother of Saddam Hussein.  His safety-first gameplan, his frustrating refusal to properly use his physical advantages, his own arrogance and let’s be honest, the way he looks, all help make Sylvia unpopular at the best of times.  Things could be worse than usual here.  Couture’s return is the classic story of the legend coming back to teach the younger man a lesson or two.  Nobody cheers for Rocky Balboa’s opponents and Couture even has the advantage over everyone’s favourite fictional boxer since his audience can actually understand what he’s saying.  Few insiders would pick Couture to actually win, and he opened as a 4/1 underdog but there’s no doubting who the sentimental favourite will be.

Line-up:

UFC Heavyweight title: Tim Sylvia vs. Randy Couture
Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle
Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald
Renato Sobral vs. Jason Lambert
Drew McFedries vs. Martin Kampmann
Rex Holman vs. Matt Hamill
Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti
Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent
Jason Gilliam vs. Jamie Varner

March 3rd
Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio
www.ufc.com

UFC Heavyweight title: Tim Sylvia vs. Randy Couture

Most long-time followers of the sport will likely have very mixed feelings about this fight.  They may well want to see Couture (14-8) make a triumphant return and take Sylvia’s (23-2) ‘precious’ but will feel decidedly queasy about the prospect of the Couture-Mirko Cro Cop fight that would follow it.  As good as Sylvia is, and despite his many flaws, Sylvia IS a very good fighter, he just doesn’t seem as dangerous as Cro Cop.  That said, I have a strong feeling this match looks like being a bridge too far for ‘the Natural’.  If so, the main event of this show may ultimately be the most depressing in some time.  There’s a very good reason why Couture dropped down to 205 pounds in 2003.  After successive losses to Josh Barnett and Ricco Rodriguez where his opponent’s size advantages were crucial elements, Couture looked finished as a headliner.  Dropping down in weight as cannon fodder for Chuck Liddell, Couture guaranteed his Hall of Fame status with a stunning victory, taking the ‘Interim’ Light Heavyweight belt after Tito Ortiz discovered something like 8,462 reasons not to fight the mohawked top contender.  Couture’s subsequent manhandling, domination and literal spanking of Ortiz three months later proved beyond all doubt the Liddell win was no fluke.  What most certainly was a fluke was Vitor Belfort’s sliced-eyelid title win in January 2004.  Couture restored the natural balance by battering the gore-soaked Brazilian to a third round defeat seven months later, lifting his third UFC title.

Winning a fourth would be an incredible achievement, and one unlikely to be matched for a long, long time, but the immense champion will be very tough to beat.  A couple of years ago, even with the size disparity, Couture would likely have won.  But now, aged 43, and coming off a pair of knockout defeats to Liddell he could be headed for a very sad defeat.  It’s not that Couture can’t take Sylvia down.  Jeff Monson managed it once or twice, despite giving up an almost comical amount of height.  It’s not that Couture can’t be an effective striker.  He’s proved that over and over again.  It’s not that Couture is a novice at submissions either, having recently drawn with Ronaldo Jacare in a grappling match.  Couture is a more skilled fighter than Sylvia.  He’s simply giving up a huge amount of weight, height and youth.

Sylvia may not use his physical advantages to the full (if only he’d learn to use a proper jab) but he’s a very big, very powerful man with surprising stamina for a man of his slovenly appearance.  Awkward and stupefyingly cautious at times he’s still a winning fighter.  Prone to the odd boneheaded mistake (taking Frank Mir down when everyone expected him to pick the lazy Vegas native apart on his feet) in the past, Sylvia does generally put together a solid gameplan, and follow it.  Against Couture he needs to keep the fight at a distance, avoiding the clinch and the older man’s short hooks, uppercuts and trips.  Forcing Couture to chase him and countering with punches was how Liddell beat the ‘the Natural’ in their last fight.  Sylvia should try for something similar.  On Couture’s part, he needs get in close because Sylvia can be very effective with some distance to work in.  Just ask Tra Telligman who he put to sleep with a brutal but almost laughably sloppy high kick in August 2005.  If he can take Sylvia down, Couture can start to work him over with punches and elbows but even on the mat, the champion can spring the odd surprise.  His attempt to triangle Jeff Monson was more comical than truly threatening but him just attempting it proves the big man is capable of a little inspiration.  Sylvia has shown a good takedown defence at times but crucially, has never faced anyone with the kind of Greco-Roman skills of Couture.  Monson pales in comparison to the UFC Hall of Famer and the upper body clinch to takedown style favoured by the Team Quest pioneers (Couture, Lindland and Henderson) could be something Sylvia has trouble with.

Unfortunately for Couture though, his age may still be an even bigger obstacle than his 6’8” opponent.  Pushing 44, nobody questions whether he’s in impeccable shape.  But in those last two Liddell fights he looked sluggish and his near legendary punch resistance seemed to have completely deserted him.  Even worse, in his last fight, his career-long tendency to rush headlong at his opponents really came back to haunt him when Liddell waffled him with a huge punch.  Being KO’ed by Liddell is no disgrace.  If it were there’d be plenty of disgraced fighters out there.  But Sylvia will have an extra 40 pounds behind his shots and has bashed some fighters with pretty good chins.  Look at the way Ricco Rodriguez and Gan McGee fell apart when he whacked them.  Even worse, Couture has never faced anyone of that height.  He’s been training with some monsters, like Wes Sims, Eric Pele and Dan Christison but training isn’t the same as fighting, and none of those three are as good as Sylvia anyway.  I’m expecting this fight to last longer, but look much like sloppier version of the last couple of Couture-Liddell fights.  Expect Couture to do the chasing and Sylvia to wait for his opening.  Couture is simply too good not to have moments where he’s in control but eventually, things will fall apart and Sylvia will catch him.  He may not KO the legend cleanly but he can be a merciless finisher.  Look for the referee to rescue Couture from a mat-based pounding sometime in the latter part of the fight.

PREDICTION: Sylvia by TKO midway through the fourth.

Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle

This should be the perfect comeback fight for Hughes (40-5).  Indiana’s Lytle (22-13-5) is a credible, experienced opponent, with something of a name after making it to the finals of TUF4.  And Hughes should absolutely destroy him.  I’ve been a fan of Lytle for years, but this is a terrible match-up for him.  While he’s much better standing than Hughes, he simply won’t be able to keep the feet on his feet for very long.  A rampant Joe Riggs (still the only man to ever stop the ultra-tough Lytle inside the distance) took him apart at UFC 55 with a combination of brute strength, wrestling technique and brutal ground n’ pound.  What does Hughes do best?  Oh yes, all of those things.  And he’s much, much better than Riggs, who he beat with thoroughly unsurprising ease at UFC 56.  The only real question marks here are Hughes’ still under-developed kickboxing skills and whether he really wants to be back on top of the UFC welterweight division.  A motivated Hughes will look like an absolute monster in this fight.  And he’ll lay waste to a very good, very defensively gifted fighter along the way.

PREDICTION: Hughes by TKO late in the first round.

Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald

Self-proclaimed ‘TUF Killer’ MacDonald (18-7) may be wondering what he has to do in order to get a fight he’s actually supposed to win.  Twice before Zuffa have booked him as an opponent for TUF graduates in matches where the opponent was supposed to shine.  And twice MacDonald has choked them out.  He simply schooled and triangled Ed Herman on Spike TV last October and guillotined Chris Leben until he turned a nasty shade of unconscious purple in front of an enormous UFC 66 pay-per-view audience.  But if MacDonald repeats his ‘I’m not your stepping stone’ act for a third time it will be the biggest surprise of all.  Former UFC Middleweight champion Franklin (20-2) is bigger, has faced tougher opposition and really shouldn’t be losing his first fight in his home state for almost six years.  But that’s not to say ‘the Athlete’ has no chance of springing the upset.  Franklin may be timid and ineffective after the way Anderson Silva tore him apart in their last fight.  David Loiseau looked like a very different fighter coming off his own beating at Franklin’s hands and ‘Ace’ may suffer similar problems after Silva crushed him so completely.  True, Franklin was ill going into the fight (a few days earlier he looked like he’d been on a week-long drinking bender with Chuck Liddell) but he also employed one of the stupidest gameplans of 2006.  Only Renato Sobral’s tribute to James Thompson’s ‘Gong & Dash’ in his fight with Liddell was more obviously bone-headed than Franklin’s idea the clinch would be his “sweet spot” against Silva.  For such an intelligent man that was shockingly bad planning and reeked of either arrogance or near-total ignorance of just how good Silva is.  Well, the former teacher learned the hard way, losing his belt and having his face re-arranged.  With those two big upsets behind him, MacDonald has the potential to be a player in the middleweight division.  That’s despite losing to Jason Brilz, Marvin Eastman, Shonie Carter, Kalib Starnes and Patrick Cote over the last couple of years.  MacDonald has certainly been an inconsistent fighter, but he’s a genuinely talented one who seems to have hit his best form on the sport’s biggest stage and is coming off six straight wins.  But even he hasn’t sounded particularly enthusiastic about facing Franklin at this stage.  And rightly so.  Franklin’s mixture of high level experience, excellent cardio, effective striking, submission skills and good wrestling all put him well ahead of his opponent.  His only really weaknesses could be his suspect chin and any lingering psychological effects of the Silva fight.  But ‘Ace’ should just be too good for MacDonald.  Look for him to score a stoppage win around the midway point.

PREDICTION: Franklin by TKO early in the second round.

Undercard Round-Up:

Add Renato Sobral (27-6) and Jason Lambert (22-6) to the list of fighters coming back from crushing losses. Humiliated in 95 seconds thanks to his own ludicrous ‘put-your-head-down-and-rush-headlong-at-Chuck Liddell’ gameplan at UFC 62, ‘Babalu’ will hopefully be more sensible this time.  If so, he should beat Lambert.  A more accomplished wrestler; with vastly improved submission skills since joining Gracie Barra and with experience against some top fighters, Sobral should outclass the Californian.  Lambert is tough but was smashed to pieces by Rashad Evans at UFC 63.  That loss snapped an 8-fight winning streak (although he was lucky to get the decision over Marvin Eastman) and Evans is clearly a rising star at 205 pounds.  ‘Babalu’ needs a big win.  Look for him to score that here.  Still young at 31, Sobral has time to rebuild his career.  Lambert will be a difficult obstacle but Sobral should clamber over him with a win inside the distance, most likely by submission.

Stepping in as a very late replacement at UFC 65, Miletich fighter Drew McFedries (5-1) shocked everyone with his dismantling of Alessio Sakara in a gripping fight.  Displaying some fast, accurate punching and naked aggression, the 28-year-old finished Sakara late in the first for a triumphant UFC debut.  Now facing another European striker in Martin Kampmann (14-2), fans should be rejoicing that such an almost certainly great fight is scheduled for the main pay-per-view broadcast.  Like McFedries, Denmark’s ‘Hitman’ is an aggressive, technically strong puncher with fast, heavy hands.  Both men are on winning streaks, 5 for McFedries and 7 for Kampmann and both are coming off impressive performances.  Kampmann decisioned gifted Brazilian Thales Leites in November, 3 months after outclassing powerful striker Crafton Wallace and finishing him with a rear naked choke.  Look for Kampmann, who also has some excellent high kicks, to take this in an absolute war.  The 24-year-old has spent the last couple of years as one of Europe’s brightest young stars.  This fight should establish him as somebody to watch on the American scene.  Expect Kampmann to win by a spectacular KO after surviving some very rough moments against a very good fighter.

Matt Hamill (4-0) should be a huge favourite with the live crowd.  One of the standout characters during the excellent TUF3, he’s also fighting in his home state.  He’s still very much a work in progress and massively reliant on his wrestling but has real potential.  He’s not especially entertaining, as his last fight with Seth Petruzelli in October painfully demonstrated, but his powerful takedowns and ability to just physically dominate and maul his opponents are very effective.  His 37-year-old opponent ‘Big Dog’ Rex Holman (4-1) is actually pretty similar.  Another late starter (he only started training MMA in 2005), he has an excellent college wrestling pedigree and is another Ohio native.  Hamill may struggle to take Holman down, and adapting to fight another excellent wrestler will be a real test of how far Hamill has come over the last year or so.  He should win, but don’t expect it to be particularly entertaining.

This card is stacked with high quality wrestlers.  San Jose based AKA welterweight Jon Fitch (12-2) is one of them.  But Fitch is more than just a wrestler.  Now 4-0 in UFC, he’s constantly improving other aspects of his game and is a genuine threat to any fighter in his weightclass.  Up to and including the incredible Georges St. Pierre.  He’s rolled through Brock Larson, Josh Burkman, Thiago Alves and Kuniyoshi Hironaka so far.  Look for him to add the heavy-handed but sloppier, cardio-suspect Luigi Fioravanti (10-1) to that list.  A member of the American Top Team (ATT), Fioravanti is coming off a pair of UFC stoppage wins over a faded Dave Menne and the unbelievably irritating Solomon Hutcherson.  He’s also taken on and beaten Stephan Potvin and Hidetaka Monma in the last nine months as he settles into the welterweight division.  An energetic striker, Fioravanti has proved his pitiful showing in his decision loss to Chris Leben wasn’t the real him.  But even still, Fitch should grind out a tough, relentless decision win.  He’s just a better fighter.

At lightweight, ATT’s Gleison Tibau (11-4) looks to bounce back from his stoppage defeat to Nick Diaz at UFC 65.  At just 23, he’s been fighting for 8 years and the Brazilian is another off the production line of very good young fighters from Coconut Creek, Florida.  Ohio native Jason Dent (12-7) could be in for another rough night.  His last UFC fight saw him manhandled for three rounds by the utterly relentless Roger Huerta.  Tibau lacks Huerta’s mix of excellent wrestling and constant, overpowering aggression, but he should use his busy striking and strong submission skills (he came very close to a Kimura on the tricky Diaz) to win this.  One question mark about Tibau is how he’ll make 155 pounds.  Any weight-draining effects will be exploited by Dent but if Tibau has cut weight properly, look for him to beat Dent by decision.  Dent has lasted the distance with some very skilled fighters in the past.  There’s no reason to think he can’t at least make it to the final bell in this one.

Finally, another lightweight match sees Jason Gilliam (9-0) makes his UFC debut against Jamie Varner (11-2).  A strong wrestler, the born-again former jailbird could be a decent test for Varner but the younger man should definitely win.  Twelve years Gilliam’s junior at just 22, the Arizona based Varner gave Hermes Franca a terrific struggle before losing by submission at UFC 62.  He should just be too good and too energetic for Gilliam.  Look for Varner to use his superior ground game to pick up the win.  But really, I’d be happy if somehow both men lost, just as punishment for their abysmal nicknames.  ‘The Gizzard’ Gilliam and ‘the Worm’ Varner?  What?  MMA has made great strides in smashing its way into the mainstream (well, UFC has) but what it needs now, more than anything, is some kind of regulatory control of nicknames to put an end to this utter nonsense.

Predictions Re-cap:

Tim Sylvia TKO4 Randy Couture

Matt Hughes TKO1 Chris Lytle

Rich Franklin TKO2 Jason MacDonald

Renato Sobral SUB2 Jason Lambert

Martin Kampmann TKO1 Drew McFedries

Matt Hamill DEC 3 Rex Holman

Jon Fitch DEC3 Luigi Fioravanti

Gleison Tibau DEC3 Jason Dent

The Worm SUB2 The Gizzard

www.ufc.com

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