The title fight may be as clear an example of the old cliché ‘be careful what you wish for, you might just get it’ as it’s possible to imagine.  Presumably Travis Lutter was delighted at making it to the finals of the abominably dull TUF4.  After all, he was now just one fight away from a very unlikely title shot against Rich Franklin.  Then, in-between the taping of the show and the live finale, Anderson Silva destroyed Franklin’s face and took his Middleweight belt.  Bad, bad news for Lutter, who matched up far better with Franklin than he does with Silva, but would still have gone in as a major underdog.  Nobody likes their fights to be completely predictable but if (and there aren’t too many reasons why they shouldn’t) Silva, Cro Cop and Jackson win then the rest of 2007 could get very, very interesting indeed. 

Line-up:

UFC Middleweight title: Anderson Silva vs. Travis Lutter
Mirko Cro Cop vs. Eddie Sanchez
Quinton Jackson vs. Marvin Eastman
John Halverson vs. Roger Huerta
Patrick Cote vs. Scott Smith
Sam Hoger vs. Lyoto Machida
Terry Martin vs. Jorge Rivera
Frankie Edgar vs. Tyson Griffin

February 3rd
Las Vegas

UFC Middleweight title: Anderson Silva vs. Travis Lutter

Of the night’s expected sacrificial victims, BJJ black belt Lutter (9-3) probably has the best chance of upsetting the oddsmakers.  But there’s hardly a great chance he’ll shock the MMA world by beating the sublimely talented Silva (17-4).  A genuinely excellent grappler, Lutter is also naturally the bigger man.  Then again, so is Rich Franklin and thanks to Silva’s devastating Muay Thai clinch he ended up with much of his nose relocated somewhere near his ear and his carry-on baggage lighter by a few pounds of tin and leather.  Lutter’s grappling is of the highest calibre.  He proved that by taking down Matt Lindland of all people in their UFC 52 fight.  But, weakened by illness, he just couldn’t match the pace set by ‘the Law’ and ended up tapping out to Lindland’s guillotine choke.  A decision loss to Trevor Prangley came partly due to his stepping in as a very late substitute.  Despite going in there well short of his best shape, Lutter still went the distance.  During TUF4 there were times when Lutter’s grappling mastery of his opponents bordered on the farcical and he looked clinical in his title shot clinching armbar win over Patrick Cote.  Lutter also thoroughly dominated a feared Brazilian (actually he’s Cuban, but has always been based in and billed from Brazil) striker at Cage Rage 15 last April when he completely schooled Jose ‘Pele’ Landi-Jons on the mat.  Lutter finished ‘Pele’ with a very slick first round armbar but there’s a major difference between taking out the washed-up Vale Tudo legend and ‘the Spider’.

Anderson Silva is a phenomenal fighter.  It’s still a source of great and uncomprehending wonder to me why Zuffa apparently thought he’d be a good opponent for Rich Franklin.  Clearly they thought Franklin would win the fight.  But despite the champion’s obvious illness in the days leading up to the fight there was always an excellent chance Silva would destroy the suspect-chinned titleholder.  With just two UFC wins under his belt, the other being his joyous destruction of Chris Leben, Silva looks like being the champion for a long time to come.  A high quality grappler himself, he’s exceptionally fast with hands (ask Jorge Rivera), knees (ask Leben and Franklin), feet (ask Lee Murray next time you’re visiting Morocco) and elbows (ask Tony Frklund).  Silva just has so many weapons he can use to hurt or KO his opponents.  The slickest Muay Thai skills in the sport and deceptive strength on a fairly slight frame help make Silva a very dangerous man.  Look for him to score yet another highlight-reel first round win once Lutter realises he can’t take him down and has to stand and strike.  Lutter is underrated on his feet but he really won’t last long with Silva.

PREDICTION: Silva by KO late in the first.

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Eddie Sanchez

We won’t know how much money the undefeated Sanchez (6-0) is making for this fight until the NSAC publish pay details but the chances are, it’s not enough.  At least not unless he’s getting additional danger money.  The heavy handed Sanchez went into his first UFC fight last September as something of an underdog against England’s Wolfslair boss Mario ‘Sukata’ Neto.  Giving up a huge amount of experience to the skilled veteran of the mid-90s Brazilian bare-knuckle scene, Sanchez was more or less completely controlled during the first round but won the fight by unleashing a huge KO punch early in the second round.  If he repeats the trick against Cro Cop (21-4-2) then the 2007 ‘Upset of the Year’ will already be etched in stone, NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS over the next 11 months.  But don’t bet on it. 

Last March it took over 14 and a half minutes for Sanchez to put away Wade Shipp.  With all due respect to Neto and the tough but very limited Shipp that doesn’t mean much when compared to Cro Cop’s annihilation of Ikuhisa Minowa, utter dismantling of Hidehiko Yoshida, the near-murder of Wanderlei Silva and his destruction of Josh Barnett in 2006.  Cro Cop may have lost almost as many fights as Sanchez has even been involved in but he’s been defeated just twice in almost three years.  Dropping a decision to Mark Hunt is no disgrace and going the distance with Fedor Emelianenko is a real achievement.  It’s hard to imagine any circumstance where Sanchez would last so long with either man.  Sanchez lasting more than a round with Cro Cop is almost as unlikely.  The faster, more experienced and almost infinitely better Cro Cop is going to stalk Sanchez and when he catches him, he’s going to absolutely destroy him.

PREDICTION: Cro Cop by KO midway through the first.

Quinton Jackson vs. Marvin Eastman

Don’t be fooled by the fact Eastman (13-6-1) holds a win over the charismatic Jackson (25-6).  That June 2000 encounter may as well have been centuries ago when you consider the circumstances behind it and just how much things have changed since then.  For starters, Jackson was very new to the sport, (to be fair, so was Eastman) and to the concept of training for anything other than either high school wrestling or a street fight.  With just a few weeks of training and non-existent submission skills he was still well in charge until fatigue allowed Eastman to take over and pick up the decision victory.  Despite his run of mostly poor performances in 2005 and 2006, recurring injuries and the Born Again Christianity so often blamed for him losing his edge, Jackson is just a much better fighter than Eastman these days.  Speaking of Jackson’s faith, it seems unlikely that had anything to do with his performances inside the ring.  True, it means his awesome, profanity-laced interviews are a thing of the past but really, isn’t it more likely his twin maulings by Wanderlei Silva, contractual and professional conflicts with Pride, training camp turmoil and injuries to his hands and ribs had more of an impact than him believing in God?  Plenty of fighters are perfectly able to divorce their out-of-the-ring piety from their in-ring violence.  Why should Jackson be any different?  Still not convinced?  Go back and watch his final Pride fight.  The religious Jackson had no trouble pounding and stomping Hirotaka Yokoi to a first round TKO.  Nor did he have any moral problems trying to drive Matt Lindland clean through the mat in their hugely enjoyable and achingly close WFA fight last July.  Those were the best two Jackson performances since he beat Chuck Liddell in 2003.

Is ‘Rampage’ really back though?  He doesn’t always sound too confident about another Liddell fight, having spoken of having a few fights before thinking about ‘the Iceman’.  Much bigger than Eastman, with better wrestling and much more success against top quality fighters, this is Jackson’s fight to lose.  Then again, recent divorce proceedings have kept him away from his regular training partners so the Jackson who fought Lindland after training with the likes of Josh Barnett and Tito Ortiz may not show up.  Those personal problems can’t be easy either and the pressure will really be on to not just win, but obliterate his opponent.  But Jackson can handle it.  Eastman is a capable fighter, but he’s just not a top class fighter.  A good striker and a good wrestler, his chin is suspect and despite finding success at lower levels, he’s 0-2 for Zuffa.  Vitor Belfort memorably sliced his head wide open at UFC 43 and Travis Lutter sparked him out with a single shot in an abominable fight at UFC 50.  Eastman can be a very cautious fighter.  Waiting and letting Jackson make the first move may be a bad idea.  Look for ‘Rampage’ to silence the doubters and please the crowd with some huge slams and a merciless finish.

PREDICTION: Jackson by TKO late in the second.

Undercard:

An almost ‘can’t miss’ star of the future with seemingly unlimited potential, Roger Huerta (15-1-1) should take out his 34-year-old opponent John Halverson (12-4) in dominant fashion.  Halverson is a tough, capable fighter with boxing skills but lacks Huerta’s pedigree.  An All-American high school wrestler, Huerta has trained under Pat Miletich and Guy Mezger.  With a very impressive record for a 23-year-old, he’s a non-stop wrestling/ground n’ pound machine similar in some ways to Mitsuhiro Ishida.  Huerta has beaten some decent fighters in his short career and should just be too good for Halverson.  Look for a second round TKO win by ‘El Matador’.

Two of the dullest out-of-the-ring characters on the horrible TUF4, Scott Smith (10-2) and Patrick Cote (8-4) could end up having a very good fight.  Smith is coming off his unbelievable last-ditch, one-punch KO of Pete Sell at the TUF4 Finale while on the same show Cote was schooled by Travis Lutter.  Both Smith and Cote have beaten very credible opponents and both like to punch.  Unfortunately for Cote, he’s 0-4 inside the Octagon (TUF4 prelims aside).  Smith is 1-1 and may be the more relaxed, confident fighter.  Cote likely has the better chin and Smith’s win over Sell was so dramatic because he looked completely finished just before Sell charged into his right hand.  Don’t expect a repeat of that finish but this one should end inside the distance.  Either can take it, but I’ll go for Cote by a late first round TKO.

It may end up as one of this year’s biggest MMA mysteries.  Why would anyone book a fight that looks this hellishly dull?  Both Sam Hoger (6-2) and Lyoto Machida (8-0) have put in some pitiful performances on their way to crowd-killing decisions.  If anything Machida is more to blame, since he’s a more skilled fighter.  TUF1 heel Hoger is decent at everything but incredibly bland.  Machida has faced better opposition, holding wins over a bloated BJ Penn and Rich Franklin and did better against their only common opponent – Stephan Bonnar.  Machida beat the floppy-haired horse-steroid user while Hoger dropped a decision.  Still, it’s hard to figure out why, even with those scalps, Zuffa picked up his WFA contract.  His fight with Vernon White last July was utterly atrocious.  He was extremely lucky to get the judge’s verdict in his fight with Sam Greco and has barely looked impressive since his KO win over Franklin more than three years ago.  Hoger should be able to stay with Machida, fighting in his effective, if boring way but he’s unlikely to win.  Look for Machida by a very dull, cautious decision.  Don’t expect this to be broadcast in full, unless every other fight goes less than a round.

Jorge Rivera (14-5) should be too good for stumpy wrestler Terry Martin (14-2).  Rivera has been around for a long time and faced some very, very good fighters.  He pushed Rich Franklin very hard in 2004, before losing to a late armbar and has decisioned David Loiseau.  He’s been hammered a few times though.  Anderson Silva outclassed him and, somewhat embarrassingly, the technique-deficient Chris Leben just smashed him to pieces.  He should still be a little too good for Martin.  0-2 for Zuffa, this has to be Martin’s last chance.  His record is padded with rematches against mediocre fighters and the only two times he’s stepped up in class, he’s finished the fight on his back, staring at the lights.  James Irvin finished him with a superb flying knee at UFC 54 and Jason Lambert bashed him at UFC 59.  His wrestling and sheer physical strength may give Rivera problems early but look for ‘El Conquistador’ to use his tight Muay Thai skills to hurt and cut Martin open for a late TKO.

A very, very talented wrestler, 155 pounder Frankie Edgar (5-0) may be a much tougher opponent for the explosive Tyson Griffin (8-0) than most would expect.  A graduate of the wrestling programme at Clarion College (same school as Kurt Angle), the 26-year-old Edgar will want this fight on the ground, fast.  Edgar is unbeaten, mostly on the New Jersey MMA scene and like Roger Huerta, he has excellent stamina.  But crucially, he lacks the experience of Griffin and has never been in there with a vicious striker anything like Griffin’s calibre.　Expect him to figure out how to stop Edgar taking him down after a potentially rough first round and smash his opponent apart in the second.

Predictions Re-cap:

Anderson Silva KO1 Travis Lutter
Mirko Cro Cop KO1 Eddie Sanchez
Quinton Jackson TKO2 Marvin Eastman
Roger Huerta TKO2 John Halverson
Patrick Cote TKO1 Scott Smith
Lyoto Machida DEC3 Sam Hoger
Jorge Rivera TKO3 Terry Martin
Tyson Griffin TKO2 Frankie Edgar

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