Line-up:

UFC Light Heavyweight title: Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz
Forrest Griffin vs. Keith Jardine
Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcio Cruz
Chris Leben vs. Jason MacDonald
Michael Bisping vs. Eric Schafer
Tony DeSouza vs. Thiago Alves
Yushin Okami vs. Rory Singer
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Carmelo Marrero
Christian Wellisch vs. Anthony Perosh
30th December,
Las Vegas, Nevada

UFC Light Heavyweight title: Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz

Immediately after their previous meeting in April 2004 I would have willingly and emphatically picked Liddell (19-3) to win any and all rematches between the dominant champion and the former training partner he just demolished.  Now, almost two years on, things may be a little less clear cut.  True, he smashed Ortiz (15-4) the first time, after stuffing his takedown attempts and forcing him into a standing battle only Liddell was ever likely to win but I’m actually leaning towards the challenger this time.  That’s despite the fact Liddell used to batter Ortiz in training and holds the psychological edge of having done the same thing in front of the world at UFC 47.  Whatever spurious claims Ortiz makes about being thumbed in the eye, it was his inability to take Liddell down and the resulting beating that caused his second round KO defeat.  Looking at Tito’s record since the Liddell fight, it’s hard to find a performance that was both truly dominant and at the same time impressive.  The two pointless (inside the cage at least) beatings of Ken Shamrock’s remains proved absolutely nothing aside from the fact Herb Dean is the best referee in the business and Dana White knows how to pop a TV rating and spin a PR nightmare his way.  Ortiz squeaked past Forrest Griffin at UFC 59 by a split decision he was a little fortunate to get after starting very strongly but being outboxed in the second round.  Only the final round was debatable and I thought Griffin had edged that one.  Ortiz pointed to his recurrent knee injury as the main reason for having trouble with the charismatic Griffin but his opponent was just as one-legged, suffering from a nasty ankle injury.  Before that, Ortiz had some very scary moments in his UFC 51 fight with Vitor Belfort and was even nailed with a hefty shot by late replacement Patrick Cote at UFC 50 before decisioning the Canadian in lacklustre fashion.  So why on earth would I learn towards Ortiz?  Particularly when during the same period Liddell has destroyed Vernon White, Randy Couture (twice), Jeremy Horn and Renato Sobral.  The main factors are preparation, age and fitness.

Routinely punishing himself with a long and brutal training regime at Big Bear in California, Ortiz has never forgotten the lesson Frank Shamrock taught him in 1999.  Ortiz was dominating their fight until he simply ran out of steam and was finished off with punches some 20 minutes into their epic encounter.  Surrounding himself with talented training partners and removing himself from the temptation to do anything other than train and cut weight for a good two months, Ortiz is never less than prepared.  Compare that to Liddell.  Hardly a clean living character, Liddell likes a drink or twelve on the Las Vegas party scene and just six weeks before this fight was partying hard for a solid week all over town.  That fun-loving lifestyle doesn’t mean that when he gets down to it he doesn’t train exceptionally hard.  Away from the party scene, Liddell is widely regarded as one of the sport’s hardest workers.  But it may come still back to haunt him one of these days.  December 30th could be that day.  There are other factors too.  One is age.  Liddell turned 37 two weeks before the fight, while Ortiz is 31 until January.  Liddell is just a few years younger than the sport’s elder statesmen like Mark Coleman, Ken Shamrock and Randy Couture and like his partying, age may be ready to creep up on him and spring a nasty surprise.  37 isn’t exactly old, but the training, the nagging injuries (he’s had recurring toe problems) and the weight-cutting won’t exactly be getting any easier.  Speaking of injuries, Ortiz is now claiming to be injury free for the first time in several years.  He’s been bothered by knee and back injuries for some time and at times his performances have suffered.  A fully fit Ortiz will be a real handful for anybody, even the seemingly unstoppable champion.

Overconfidence could be a problem for Liddell too.  When he and Ortiz trained regularly together a few years back, Liddell was firmly in charge.  And when they finally met in the Octagon, he battered Ortiz.  Liddell could be forgiven for expecting another crushing win in this one.  He’s also coming off that string of very impressive wins with a pair of knockouts over Couture, the effortless destruction of ‘Babalu’ and the humbling of Horn.  Overconfidence breeds complacency and complacent fighters very often receive a very rude awakening.  Comparable to Ortiz in wrestling, with a major edge in punching power, a longer reach and that incredible ability to get back up once put on his back (a skill he hasn’t needed in more than 3 years) Liddell should logically hammer his rival a second time.  Ortiz will still have serious trouble taking Liddell down, and will struggle to keep him grounded even if he gets him on the mat.  Standing and trading with Liddell would be a thoroughly foolish strategy.  In many ways its hard to really come up with a good reason for picking Ortiz, but this is one of those times where a lot of little things all add up and the end result could be a dramatic upset.  Ortiz must crowd and clinch Liddell, avoid those big looping bombs and set a fast pace the more relaxed champion may struggle with.  Ortiz will need a career-best performance, peak physical fitness and a lot of luck but by extending the fight into the last couple of rounds without suffering too much damage he may be able to pick up the decision win.

PREDICTION: Ortiz by decision after five rounds.

Forrest Griffin vs. Keith Jardine

Ever since his three round war at the live finale of TUF1, Griffin (13-3) has been one of Zuffa’s most marketable commodities.  He’s looked raggedly exciting with flashes of excellence in all four subsequent fights.  He showed off his very real ground skills with an efficient first round submission win over Canadian striker Bill Mahood at UFC 53.  He looked vulnerable on his feet against Elvis Sinosic at UFC 55, being caught with several shots by a fighter hardly known for his striking but still finished things in the first round with his trademark arm-swinging.  Even in his decision loss to Tito Ortiz at UFC 59, Griffin was impressive.  He survived an early elbow onslaught through sheer determination, his great chin and underrated ground skills.  He also displayed a great sprawl against one of UFC’s better wrestlers and outboxed a tiring Ortiz throughout much of the second round.  Many, this writer included, felt Griffin did just enough in that last round (the only one any rational person would argue about the winner of) to sneak a close 29-28 victory over the TUF3 coach.  His UFC 62 rematch with Stephan Bonnar was anti-climactic but Griffin fought the smart fight this time, keeping Bonnar at a distance and refusing to get involved in a slugfest with a fighter he’s far surpassed since they were so evenly matched back in April 2005.

His opponent Jardine (11-2-1) is another TUF graduate, emerging from the boring shambles of season 2 but is a very different fighter and personality.  His last three fights have all gone the distance, with Jardine (thanks to some poor judging) posting a 2-1 record.  It actually takes talent to sport a beard like Jardine and still remain more or less anonymous during an entire season of TUF.  But he managed it.  And at times his fighting style is no more exciting.  Efficient with low kicks, he’s well-rounded, tough, has stamina and good technique.  A teammate of Diego Sanchez, Jardine beat TUF2 flop Mike Whitehead by decision, then dropped the unanimous verdict to Bonnar in a fight where Jardine was really the aggressor and seemed to have done more than enough to win.  The announcement of Bonnar’s victory after a late rally was met with a torrent of boos from an aggrieved audience and the ever-candid Dana White publicly admitted he flat out disagreed with the verdict.  Most recently, Jardine decisioned American Top Team fighter Wilson Gouveia but struggled badly, particularly in the first round where he was simply picked apart.  Things got better in the second and in the third he just took advantage of Gouveia’s suspect stamina.  Jardine earned the win with a last minute onslaught as despite his own exhaustion, he went after Gouveia with a vengeance.  Unable to stop him, Jardine had to settle for the decision victory.

This is a huge fight for Jardine – a pay-per-view semi-main event.  Even more importantly it’s a pay-per-view that should shatter all previous UFC records.  But he shouldn’t be winning this fight.  Tough and capable as he is, Griffin is better.  The real danger for Griffin is that after his UFC 59 main event with Ortiz (Tim Sylvia went on last but despite what he may think, he was NOT in that show’s main event) and the much-hyped, long-awaited Bonnar rematch, this feels like a step backwards.  Any complacency or lack of interest will cost Griffin dearly but despite his goofy personality, the former police officer is far from stupid.  An Ortiz rematch, a shot at Liddell or even a fight with Quinton Jackson are all possibilities for 2007.  That should be ample motivation for Griffin.  He may have trouble finishing Jardine and like in all of his fights there seems destined to be wobbly moments, but Griffin should walk away with a clear decision win against a man he’s just more talented than.

PREDICTION: Griffin by decision.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcio Cruz

Now this really is a rarity for Zuffa – a fascinating heavyweight fight.  Former champion Arlovski (9-5) returns after suffering a serious leg injury during his ‘fight’ with Tim Sylvia at UFC 61 in July.  A pitiful affair, both men seemed morbidly afraid of the other and as soon as Arlovski injured himself in the second round it turned into an abysmal display of ham-fisted, nervous boxing by both men.  At least Arlovski had a decent excuse and will also want to atone for his sins against the fans in that fight with a return to his ‘Caveman of Utter Destruction’ best.  Unfortunately for everyone, Sylvia is perfectly content winning ugly, boring decisions and being widely hated by fans he mistakenly thinks are ignorant and disrespectful.  The reality is, they have every right to voice their opinion about his negativity and some of Sylvia’s fiercest critics are very knowledgeable fans frustrated by his performances.  Arlovski should be less complacent.  And both he and Cruz (2-1) should be taking this fight very, very seriously.

‘Pe De Pano’ has made a surprisingly good transition from being a legitimate BJJ star to the world of MMA since debuting with Zuffa just last year.  An impressive debut saw him choke out Keigo Kunihara before he was picked as the designated jobber for Frank Mir’s supposedly triumphant return to action at UFC 57.  Cruz shocked most and laid waste to Zuffa’s plans as he just smashed Mir to pieces, taking advantage of his opponent’s long lay-off, pitiful work ethic and total inability to deal with punches and elbows on the ground for the first round win.  He lost his next match against Jeff Monson by decision in pretty dull fashion but showed an enormous improvement in his striking, using those long limbs to land punches and low kicks on his stumpy longtime grappling rival.  Cruz didn’t do enough to win but did well considering he was giving up so much MMA experience against an opponent on a monstrous winning streak.  If Cruz had won that fight he would likely have faced Sylvia for the belt in just his fourth professional fight.  Instead he gets to face another established former UFC champion coming back from injury.

Don’t expect this to look anything like the Cruz-Mir fight.  Again, Cruz has a real edge in submission skill, though Arlovski is hardly unskilled on the mat.  The key difference is Arlovski’s sheer speed, aggression and far greater striking ability.  There’s a chance he’ll be hesitant, worried about both his leg and his now unquestionably dodgy chin and allow Cruz the time and space to go for a clinch or takedown.  But more likely he’ll come out and just light the Brazilian up with low kicks and punches.  Both men are of comparable height but Arlovski will just be far too fast.  He’s also got an effective takedown defence and if he can stay out of Cruz’ sticky clutches for more than a minute or so he should have Cruz in trouble early on.  And the Chicago-based Belarussian is a truly ferocious finisher.  Expect a quick and violent ending.

PREDICTION: Arlovski by TKO midway through the first.

Chris Leben vs. Jason MacDonald

Its Battle of Ginger-Headed Fighters II as Leben (16-2) looks to continue his comeback from the crushing but entirely predictable KO loss to Anderson Silva in June and at the same time one-up his former teammate Ed Herman on his first ever pay-per-view fight.  Now working with the AMC Pankration team after years at Team Quest, the explosive but previously overrated Leben may struggle with the slicker MacDonald (17-7).  Brought in as an ‘opponent’ for Herman’s first ‘proper’ UFC appearance, MacDonald stunned many with a nice triangle choke that capped an impressive UFC debut.  I’ve seen many hundreds of fights over the years but that may have been the first time I’ve seen a Battle of Ginger-Headed Fighters and witnessing the unduly arrogant Herman schooled in such a comprehensive way made this rarity all the more entertaining.  Leben is better than Herman in more or less all areas but MacDonald could pull off another surprise.  Particularly if Leben, who was hardly impressive in his latest win against Jorge Santiago is still affected mentally by his complete dismantling at the hands and knees of the startlingly talented Silva.  True, Leben won the Santiago fight but his performance was lacklustre and there was little memorable on show beyond his one punch KO early in the second round.  More experienced than MacDonald and an effective, if very messy, striker, Leben is decent on the mat and this is a tough fight for both men.  MacDonald has tended to come up short against quality opponents, though his wins over Herman and Joe Doerksen are impressive.  Still, losing to Patrick Cote, Kalib Starnes, Shonie Carter and Marvin Eastman probably give a better overall indication of his standing than his most recent win.  As ugly as Leben’s striking technique often is, he usually finds a way to hurt his opponents and win.  He should do the same with MacDonald but it will be a hard struggle that could easily go to the final bell.

PREDICTION: Leben by decision.

Michael Bisping vs. Eric Schafer

A potentially huge star coming off the most entertaining season of TUF so far, England’s Bisping (11-0) looks poised for a hugely successful run as a UFC fighter.  It’s been more than a little frustrating so far though.  It was back in June when he gave Josh Haynes a good old fashioned pasting at the TUF3 finale and since then injuries and Zuffa’s blundering over his visa application have kept him on ice.  Finally though, at about the third attempt, his fight with the hilariously named ‘Ravishing Red’ Schafer (7-1-2) is going ahead.  And Schafer is almost the perfect opponent for Bisping’s first ‘proper’ UFC fight.  A very talented BJJ’er, Schafer just doesn’t have the striking skills or physical strength to beat his ultra-aggressive and very dangerous opponent.  Throw in Bisping’s much-improved wrestling and the frustration of having to wait so long and we could be seeing a spectacularly violent performance from ‘the Count’.  Schafer is certainly dangerous as he showed in his UFC 62 win over the fairly limited Rob MacDonald.  He will also have worked on his striking deficiencies during his own extended preparation for this fight.  But that likely won’t be enough.  Bisping has been taken down in previous fights but has shown a very useful ability to defend and reverse positions quickly before finishing the fight in style.  An explosive and concussive puncher, Bisping has hammered the tough but horribly limited Mark Epstein, Stoke-on-Trent’s greatest export since pottery, Ross Pointon, the durable Haynes and talented Scandinavians Miika Mehmet and Jakob Lovstad.  Look for him to open the biggest MMA pay-per-view of all time with another dominant stoppage win.

PREDICTION: Bisping by TKO late in the first.

Tony DeSouza vs. Thiago Alves

The American Top Team’s ‘Pitbull’ Alves (9-3) is one of the sport’s more exciting young fighters.  Peru’s DeSouza (10-2) is an experienced 32-year-old with wins over some very talented fighters.  He’s coming off a good submission win over a very promising Dustin Hazelett in October and also holds a victory over Luiz Azeredo.  Injuries and other issues kept him out of competition in 2002 and 2003 but DeSouza is a real test for any young fighter.  3-1 in an on-off UFC career that dates back to the pre-Zuffa era, DeSouza is a very well-rounded, intelligent fighter who should give the sometimes over-aggressive Alves real problems.  At just 23, Alves is full of potential.  Now 3-2 for Zuffa, he’s dropped losses to Spencer Fisher (in a fight he looked on the way to winning) and Jon Fitch (who looks destined for a title shot around 2008).  Unlike most of his ATT teammates, Alves prefers striking to groundwork and has a good background in Muay Thai in his native Brazil.  Comning off a decision win over the experienced John Alessio the same night DeSouza beat Hazelett, Alves can pick up another veteran scalp here.  Look for Alves’ busy and varied striking to see him through a very tough, and perhaps very entertaining, scrap.

PREDICTION: Alves by TKO late in the second.

Yushin Okami vs. Rory Singer

A quality fight at middleweight, this should be one of TUF3 clean freak Singer’s (10-5) most difficult tests to date.  25-year-old Okami (18-3) is very experienced for his age.  A quality fighter on a 4-fight winning streak and 2-0 in UFC, two of his losses are by controversial split decisions to Jake Shields and Falaniko Vitale.  He’s beaten some very good fighters in Kousei Kubota, Ryuta Sakurai and Izuru Takeuchi.  A veteran of Pancrase, Superbrawl, Rumble on the Rock and the now sadly renamed GCM:DOG, Okami is extremely well-rounded and has faced tougher competition.  Singer is a skilled fighter and a big man at 185 pounds but his chin is suspect and after the way he just gave up in his TUF3 fight with Ed Herman it’s fair to question his heart and commitment as well.  In his last fight Singer decisioned the tough but barely skilled Josh Haynes and before that was floored heavily by Ross Pointon and only the Englishman’s impatience saved Singer from a TKO loss.  Hardly the world’s greatest tactician, Pointon tried to follow up with punches on the ground and Singer alertly trapped him with a triangle choke.  Very effective off his back and aware of how to use his height and reach in a fight, Singer is good.  But Okami is better.  Look for the Japanese fighter to score a stoppage win in the later stages of a hard, competitive fight.

PREDICTION: Okami by TKO early in the third round.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Carmelo Marrero & Anthony Perosh vs. Christian Wellisch

The UFC’s talent-deficient heavyweight division may be about to change dramatically in 2007 with the apparent additions of Heath Herring and Mirko Cro Cop.  Of course, a few thousand things could still go wrong with those plans leaving the promotion’s big men in the same sorry state they’re in today.  Outside of staggeringly unpopular champion Tim Sylvia, Brandon Vera (who may well be heading for pastures new anyway) and Andrei Arlovski and perhaps Marcio Cruz, Zuffa’s big men under contract are a desperate looking bunch.  Just looking at these fights tells a story.  Gonzaga (6-1) is talented but slow and painfully dull.  The unbeaten Marrero (6-0) is powerful and in his last fight decisioned Cheick Kongo, a man who seems to think groundwork has something to do with public parks or gardening.  Marrero hardly looked like a worldbeater in there, even with somebody as clueless on their back as Kongo.  Gonzaga has been in there with better fighters (his only loss is to Fabricio Werdum) and is just a step or two above Marrero.  Those advantages and his strong BJJ background should see him through what may be an excruciatingly dull fight.  Australian Perosh (5-2) and Hungarian-Californian Wellisch (6-3) may be two of the most forgettable fighters in the business.  I’ve seen both of them fight but would have serious trouble picking either of them out of an identity line-up.  Perosh and Wellisch are both 0-1 in UFC, with Wellisch being KO’ed by Kongo at UFC 62 and Perosh taking a quick UFC 61 hammering from Jeff Monson.  One of them will pick up his first UFC win here.  I don’t really have much of an idea which it will be, nor do I really care though Perosh is much better on the ground but may just be overwhelmed by American Kickboxing Academy fighter Wellisch’s striking.

PREDICTION: Gonzaga by decision.
PREDICTION: Wellisch by TKO late in the first.

Predictions Re-cap:

Tito Ortiz DEC5 Chuck Liddell
Forrest Griffin DEC3 Keith Jardine
Andrei Arlovski TKO1 Marcio Cruz
Chris Leben DEC3 Jason MacDonald
Michael Bisping TKO1 Eric Schafer
Yushin Okami TKO3 Rory Singer
Thiago Alves TKO2 Tony DeSouza
Gabriel Gonzaga DEC3 Carmelo Marrero
Christian Wellisch TKO1 Anthony Perosh

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