Any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee (John Donne, 1572-1631).
Those words were written hundreds of years before the sport we know as MMA had been conceived. Well, OK, Dan Severn was actually a teenager back then and already had a damned fine moustache so there’s at least one direct link. English poet and preacher Donne was writing about man’s mortality but his words are depressingly relevant as we head towards what looks like being the final Otoko Matsuri. With no Japanese TV deal, no likelihood of getting one, the sad demise of the Bushido series, a confused business plan based around running shows overseas, major stars seemingly jumping ship and the Pride brand name possibly up for sale, DSE’s bells are tolling loud and long. It’s an incredible plunge from last year’s show where they actually beat K-1 in the New Year’s TV ratings but that’s what a Yakuza scandal and subsequent divorce from Fuji TV will do for you. True, ticket sales should go well and the show will be carried on pay-per-view but one last monster live gate won’t save the promotion and Japanese PPV sales are fairly minimal. Without a TV partner, Pride, or any recognisable version of it, is essentially finished. The only real question is how long before the corpse finally stops twitching and moving. Good God, this is depressing stuff. At least there are some genuinely high quality fights on offer.
Line-up:
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Mark Hunt Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Gilbert Melendez Joachim Hansen vs. Shinya Aoki Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura Takanori Gomi vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida Kiyoshi Tamura vs. Ikuhisa Minowa Josh Barnett vs. Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera Akihiro Gono vs. Yuki Kondo Kazuyuki Fujita vs. Eldar Kurtanidze In true Pride fashion, some last minute fights will no doubt be added. Saitama Super Arena, Tokyo, Japan 31st December

Pride Heavyweight title: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Mark Hunt
The logical choice for a New Year’s Eve main event would obviously have been a rematch between the fearsome Emelianenko (24-1) and Grand Prix winner Mirko Cro Cop. But, given the promotion’s current state of disarray its hardly surprising DSE looked to Plan B, or perhaps even Plans C all the way down to J, before finally coming up with a big name challenger in Hunt (5-2). The problem is, unless the peerless Russian is intent on following the world’s most disastrous gameplan, Hunt really doesn’t have a great chance to win. A heavy puncher with an exceptional chin, former K-1 Grand Prix champion Hunt is always dangerous but his July fight with Josh Barnett showed exactly how any good grappler should approach him. Barnett closed the distance behind a couple of punches, clinched, took Hunt down with ease and efficiently finished him with a Kimura. The whole thing took just 122 seconds and if Emelianenko is smart, and he certainly is, he’ll adopt a similar gameplan. An accomplished striker himself, Emelianenko is more than capable of matching Hunt on his feet, just as he did with Mirko Cro Cop in August 2005 but that would be a needlessly risky strategy. A reluctant trainer at best, Hunt has gone the distance with Mirko Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva, winning both fights by decision but at other times has looked overweight and tired. He should be motivated enough to train properly for this fight but just doesn’t have the same reserves of stamina as his seemingly tireless opponent. Still, given Emelianenko’s far greater experience, his unchallenged mastery of the sport’s heavyweight division and massive edge in submission skills, this likely won’t go past the opening round. Look for the champion to finish what may well be his last Pride appearance as quickly as the first real submission opportunity presents itself.
PREDICTION: Emelianenko by submission midway through the first round.
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Gilbert Melendez
In Melendez’ (11-0) hugely impressive Pride debut in August the 24-year-old ‘El Nino’ completely dominated the very capable Nobuhiro Obiya. Constantly the aggressor, Melendez won some busy striking exchanges, scored repeated takedowns and bashed away at Obiya’s head and body on the ground. Melendez floored him twice in the first, easily escaped his infrequent submission attempts, and had him wobbly and covering up with a barrage of punches in the second. The smaller Obiya landed a few shots during a terrific exchange late in the first but aside from that was never really in the fight. With a relentless attacking style Melendez showed great stamina in a furiously paced match and never tired. Such impressive showings are almost routine for the Cesar Gracie prodigy. In two appearances for the California based Strike Force promotion he thoroughly dismantled Harris Sarmiento and decisioned the very tough Clay Guida in a truly great fight. Going five rounds with Guida showed Melendez’ stamina is top quality and the Obiya fight proved that. One of the sport’s very best young fighters, Melendez has also beaten Stephen Palling and Hiroyuki Takaya during a career that started just over 4 years ago.
‘Crusher’ Kawajiri (19-3-2) has been fighting since April 2000 and has a clear edge in experience. He’s also been in there with better opposition, beating Yves Edwards, Vitor ‘Shaolin’ Ribeiro, Luiz Firminho and Charles ‘Krazy Horse’ Bennett. OK, so Bennett hardly deserves a mention, I just threw him in to see if you were paying attention. Aside from his first couple of fights, only genuinely top class opponents have beaten or drawn with Kawajiri. Ribeiro in their first fight took a decision, Caol Uno held him to a draw and Takanori Gomi choked him out in their near-classic at last year’s Bushido 9 show. Widely regarded as one of the sport’s top ten at his weight Kawajiri is by far the biggest test of the Californian’s life. A strong wrestler, aggressive and with real technical skills, Kawajiri has concentrated on improving his boxing after Gomi worked him over on their feet 15 months ago. Both he and Melendez like to battle it out on the ground and both are heavy-handed. Kawajiri has looked very impressive of late, effortlessly outclassing the bumbling Bennett and smashing Chris Brennan to pieces in 29 seconds. With two such talented fighters in great form this could be a tremendous fight. Both have a real chance of winning but Melendez may just be too fast, too energetic and be able to score a late stoppage win.
PREDICTION: Melendez by TKO late in the second.
Joachim Hansen vs. Shinya Aoki
Another fascinating lightweight match sees the man with the most horrifying ring attire in MMA take on Norway’s most frightening man. Shooto veterans Aoki (8-2) and ‘Hellboy’ Hansen (14-4-1) should put together a cracking fight. Paraestra Tokyo member Aoki’s Pride debut in August saw him don the long yellow tights and be taken down quickly by the dull but efficient Jason Black. Aoki responded by working expertly for the submission after being taken down and punished Black with punches and hammerfists while applying the finishing triangle choke in under 2 minutes. His next Pride appearance saw Aoki use the triangle again, this time putting away Clay French in the first round One of the slickest ground fighters in the sport, he’s more than capable of beating the more experienced European. I doubt he’ll actually do it but there’s a very definite possibility. Aoki has some incredible submission skills but only made his professional debut in July 2004. That’s an awful lot of experience to give up against someone like Hansen. Also, his October 2004 KO loss to Jutaro Nakao may raise some questions about his chin. A scary prospect when facing Hansen.
In Hansen’s last fight at Bushido 10 in April he scored one of the year’s sweetest KO’s in a tremendous back-and-forth brawl with Luiz Azeredo. Both men came close with submissions and used kicks from all kinds of positions in a thoroughly entertaining fight. Hansen almost finished it earlier, dropping Azeredo with a neat punch combo and a knee to the face before following up with some vicious ground n’ pound but as the round wore on, he seemed to tire. Moments before the knockout, Azeredo whipped in a nice kick to the body and some good punches to the face but he then lowered his head straight onto a Hansen kick intended for the body and took a hard knee right in the face. Falling backwards, arms outstretched, he looked out before he even hit the mat as Hansen calmly turned and walked away. There’s a very real chance he can do something just as spectacular to Aoki, so long as he can stay out of that triangle choke, or avoid some other wild submission like the unbelievable standing armlock Aoki used to beat Keith Wsiniewski. Hansen hasn’t lost by submission in 3 years, and that was to Vitor Ribeiro. Since then he’s developed an incredible knack for sparking people out with knees. He did it to Caol Uno and leglock master Masakazu Imanari. He may not repeat the trick against Aoki but I think he’ll win the fight inside the distance. He’s shown vulnerability in a few of his recent fights though and may have to survive some rough moments on the mat in the first few minutes.
PREDICTION: Hansen by KO late in the first.
Mauricio Rua vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura
Still just 24, ‘Shogun’ Rua (14-2) had an incredible 2005, was chosen as the Kakutougi ‘Breakthrough Fighter of the year’ by a country mile and received plenty of votes in the overall ‘Fighter of the Year’ category as well. With wins over Hiromitsu Kanehara (an uncomfortable annihilation), Quinton Jackson (a beating), Antonio Rogerio Noguiera (a genuine thriller) Alistair Overeem (taking advantage of the Dutchman’s defective chin and leaky gas tank), Ricardo Arona (shockingly quick), Rua was unstoppable last year. That’s why his February loss to Mark Coleman was such a huge shocker. True, the fight was cut short by injury and should be considered something of a fluke but that injury was caused by Coleman’s takedown and Rua’s subsequent bad landing. The Brazilian didn’t look on top form in his comeback win 7 months later over Cyrille Diabate but still finished the fight with some violent Chute Boxe stomping and almost tore the pathologically stubborn Kevin Randleman’s leg off during their insane fight in Las Vegas. Even for Randleman, that was a bizarre performance as he tried to just gut out a pair of impossibly tight leglocks, risking horrific injuries. Rua stayed composed in the face of Randleman’s madness and efficiently finished him off, displaying his rarely seen ground skills.
Nakamura (11-5) is a very good, ever-improving fighter. Only Antonio Rogerio Noguiera (twice), Dan Henderson (a shoulder injury), Wanderlei Silva and Josh Barnett have actually beaten him and at times Nakamura has looked great since debuting in March 2003. His Judo skills work very well in the context of an MMA fight and he’s gone 3-1 this year, bashing a spirited late substitute Travis Galbraith in Las Vegas, decisioning the utterly dull Yoshihiro Nakao by virtue of his greater activity and keylocked a helpless ‘Cyborg’ Santos. Barnett used his immense size advantage to physically bully and control Nakamura in their February meeting but that won’t be as much of a factor here. But Barnett clearly outpunched Nakamura, and that’s a real worry for this fight. Rua is very, very fast and like his teammate Silva did, will be looking to take Nakamura’s head off from the outset. Rua’s great stamina, non-stop, free-form striking and underrated ground game should be enough for him to win this fight. Nakamura always fights hard though and his Judo skills may give Rua a little trouble. But deficiencies in height, weight, reach and striking skill mean Hidehiko Yoshida’s top student will probably end up taking some of those nasty kicks and stomps before the night is over.
PREDICTION: Rua by TKO early in the second.
Takanori Gomi vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida
Pride Lightweight champion Gomi (25-3) has a lot to make up for after his pitiful performance in winning a decision over Marcus Aurelio at the last ever Bushido event in November. An appalling fight, Gomi did just enough to get the win, reminding fans of just how boring he could be back in his Shooto days before bursting onto the scene with Pride as a very different fighter. If he shows up for this fight with Ishida (14-2-1) using the same negative gameplan he could be in a great deal of trouble. The first Gomi-Aurelio fight is a cause for concern too, since after being taken down ‘the Fireball Kid’ suddenly went very cold. Beyond a nice escape from an arm triangle attempt, Gomi seemed almost helpless to stop Aurelio passing his guard, mounting him and shifting to the side for the second, winning arm triangle. This, and the Gomi of the second Aurelio match, was a very different fighter from the one who electrified audiences in 2005 with some stunning performances, most notably his excellent match with Tatsuya Kawajiri and his demolition of Hayato Sakurai. This year hasn’t been a complete disaster for Gomi. After all, he still has his title and thoroughly outclassed well-regarded Frenchman David Baron in August. Gomi hurt Baron with punches several times before finishing with a rear naked choke. But both Aurelio performances were far below his usual standards.
By contrast, 2006 has been a great year for Ishida. The protégé of Gomi’s old rival Kawajiri, he debuted with Pride at Bushido 10 in April. A reigning Shooto Pacific Rim champion, he beat Paul Rodriguez with an easy guillotine choke. Returning at Bushido 11, Ishida earned a very clear, very unanimous decision over Marcus Aurelio. Coming off his stunning upset over Gomi, Aurelio was made to look very ordinary but his relentless opponent. Aurelio went for plenty of submissions in the first and even scored a flash knockdown but the smaller southpaw simply outworked him. Constantly active after a slow opening three minutes, Ishida scored some great takedowns. Most of the fight was on the ground and Ishida simply never let up. Whichever guard variant Aurelio tried, the he just kept finding a way to land rights, lefts and hammerfists. At one point the crowd were counting along with each punch and a very enjoyable lightweight fight ended with Aurelio clinging on as Ishida threw one last incessant barrage of shots. Ishida’s success against Aurelio should worry Gomi. A great wrestler with explosive takedowns, Ishida did much the same thing to Cristiano Marcello in his next fight. Happy to sit in his opponent’s guard and throw punches while relying on his submission awareness to keep him out of trouble, Ishida smartly escaped a second round armbar and again just simply outworked his opponent. Basically the same thing happened at Bushido 13 in November when Ishida worked his relentless magic against the very talented David Bielkheden. It’s a cliché to say a particular fighter trains for every minute of every round, but Ishida clearly does. Attacking constantly, he has the stamina to just keep going and going. If he gets an early takedown, Gomi could be in serious trouble. However, Gomi is a much better striker on his feet and the Aurelio fights may have been aberrations. He’s also mixed with a higher level of opponents over the last few years, taking on Joachim Hansen and BJ Penn, the only other men to have beaten him, along with defeating Kawajiri and Hayato Sakurai. But Ishida is the in-form fighter and could spring the upset. I’m going for the man with some of the sport’s very best cauliflower ears to do just that. As long as he gets close enough to take Gomi down, Ishida can do exactly what he did to Aurelio, Marcello and Bielkheden – bash his way to a decision win.
PREDICTION: Ishida by decision.
Kiyoshi Tamura vs. Ikuhisa Minowa
Rumours the loser of this fight can never wear little red briefs ever again may not be true, which is unfortunate as it would give this entertaining looking rematch even more of an impetus. After all, this pair of oddballs would probably take a stipulation like that seriously and train as if their lives, not just their ring attire, depended on it. Tamura (13-9) is a strange one and Minowa (35-24-8) is simply barking mad. They’re also both very talented, well-known fighters, even if Tamura is well past his best and Minowa has had far too many ill-advised fights. In their first fight in 2002, Tamura earned a unanimous decision at DEEP, 6th Impact in a hugely entertaining fight. Packed with Minowa’s usual bizarre tactics and some great exchanges of submission attempts, if this rematch is even half as good it will be worth seeing.
Of the two, Tamura is the most gifted, but he’s also further past his prime than the younger, less beaten up and much more active Minowa. An intelligent fighter once in the ring (his opponent selection could do with some work at times), Tamura is very good on the mat and still has some nasty low kicks. But Minowa should physically be in better shape these days and that could be a very important difference. Tamura has taken plenty of beatings over the years, first in pro wrestling for the UWF-I and RINGS, then from legitimate fights in RINGS and later, Pride. He also didn’t look good earlier this year when being completely and utterly dominated on the mat by Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera in just over two minutes. Minowa has a history of stamina trouble and just isn’t good enough to beat the very best. His fight last year with the broken down remains of Kazushi Sakuraba saw Minowa have no real answer to the legendary fighter’s sheer inventiveness and patient submission skills. Stubborn to the point of recklessness, he refused to tap to a vicious Kimura even after close to a minute of agony and was eventually saved by the referee. Tamura is a far more credible opponent than many of those Minowa has been messing about with this year. He’s gone 5-1 in 2006 easily beating the likes of barely skilled, middle-aged London brawler Dave Legeno, the, er, giant, Giant Silva and spherical comedy act Butterbean but looked awful in winning a decision over former WWF wrestler Mike Barton. His only highly regarded opponent, Mirko Cro Cop, simply obliterated him in 70 seconds back in May. Tamura may not repeat Cro Cop’s destructive success against ‘the Punk’ but his superior talent should carry him through this fight. It should be closer than their last meeting but look for Tamura to pick up another decision win.
PREDICTION: Tamura by decision.
Josh Barnett vs. Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera
On September 10th these two clashed in one of the year’s very best fights. Going the distance in the semi-finals of the Open Weight Grand Prix, Barnett (20-4) and Noguiera (28-4-1) treated fans to an exemplary display of ground technique and determination. Fighting up until the very last second, the match ended in dramatic fashion with Noguiera trapped in a kneebar. With a little more time, Barnett may have become the first man to ever submit the massively talented Brazilian. But he gets a second chance in their somewhat surprising rematch. 2006 may have been the hardest and best year of Barnett’s career. Going 5-1 and facing some great fighters he’s talked openly of needing a long rest before fighting again. But something (most likely a desperate DSE’s throwing him a nice pay increase) convinced Barnett to get back in training. Initially I was very excited about this rematch, but on reflection I can’t escape the feeling this will be a major letdown. In September Barnett was hugely motivated and healthy. Now he’s more beaten up and is facing somebody he’s already defeated, essentially for a big payoff. An unmotivated Barnett isn’t half as impressive as the prepared version. And it’s hard to tell when he’ll actually bother putting in the work sometimes. He was in poor shape for his second fight with Mirko Cro Cop, a contest you’d expect him to be fully inspired for. So who knows how much he will have prepared for this fight, or how much notice and real training time he will have received. If he comes in out of shape then he could be in trouble, particularly as this fight will be scheduled over the full 20 minutes, rather than the 15 of the Grand Prix.
Noguiera is just tireless and with his submission defence and great chin, it’s a little unlikely Barnett can finish him, especially after giving him such a scare (dropping him in the first with a great left hook and that final kneebar attempt) last time around. Barnett took the split decision and the fight was close enough that his late kneebar effort, and Noguiera’s clearly pained reaction, may have swung the verdict his way. Eager to prove Barnett’s close but deserved win in September was a fluke, the Brazilian should be more motivated for this fight than for any in some time. And that really could be the main difference. A fitter, more rested Noguiera has had an easier year, going 3-1 and being out of the ring for almost four months. He just toyed with Kiyoshi Tamura, breezed past the ridiculous Zuluzhino and outboxed and outsmarted Fabricio Werdum for a decision and lost to Barnett. Crucially, he hasn’t been beaten up as Barnett was by Cro Cop, nor has he looked poor in any of his matches. An in-shape Noguiera really should beat a less than 100% effective Barnett. Noguiera is the more technically proficient fighter. His striking is neater, his groundwork more crisp. But Barnett is bigger, a very good wrestler and has looked excellent for much of 2006. He wasn’t just competitive with Noguiera on the mat either. In a fight with constant subtle shifts and reversals, he brilliantly escaped a first round armbar and opened a lot of people’s eyes with his ground skills. In other fights this year, he’s dominated Kazuhiro Nakamura, outlasted Aleksander Emelianenko in a stand-up striking war and easily dispatched Mark Hunt.
However, in October he struggled badly against Pawel Nastula at Pride’s US debut. True, Nastula was on even more drugs and stimulants than the average Major League Baseball player but Barnett looked tired and worn out. He was competing just a few weeks after Mirko Cro Cop battered him in the Open Weight Grand Prix final but even considering that, it was a very flat performance and Barnett looked like losing until catching the Olympic Judo star with a second round toehold. Both are very good strategists and both have very good chins, though ‘Minotauro’ also has the edge in that department, having come back to win after taking some horrific punishment in his 2003 fight with Mirko Cro Cop. Even if Barnett shows up in great condition, its hard to imagine this fight living up to the original and its not as if either man will have developed new skills in the less than 4 months since their last meeting either. It should still be a good scrap since these are two of the world’s top 5 heavyweights, but it’s just a shame the rematch couldn’t have happened at some point further down the line when, with more at stake and more distance from the first one, it could have been something special. Look for Nogueira to even the score with a close decision win, possibly after pulling away in the closing moments of an otherwise very close fight.
PREDICTION: Noguiera by decision.
Akihiro Gono vs. Yuki Kondo
An intriguing all-Japanese fight pits the superbly entertaining Gono (26-12-7) against former opponent Kondo (46-18-6). When they last meet, in a Pancrase ring just over 5 years ago Gono’s corner threw in the towel as Kondo was blasting him with punches. Things could be different this time. The charismatic Gono may have some of the sport’s most inspired entrances but he’s a very, very good fighter who is certainly capable of beating the hugely experienced Kondo. Resourceful and tough, Gono did well in this year’s Welterweight Grand Prix. He survived a wild early onslaught from Cuban Hector Lombard to win a decision and trapped a very difficult Gegard Mousasi with an armbar just 36 seconds from the end of a very close fight. In the semi finals Gono dropped a decision to the extremely talented Denis Kang. A professional fighter for 12 years, Gono has faced plenty of high quality fighters and even branched out into kickboxing last year. Still only 32 years old, but with a wealth of experience, he’s beaten the likes of Ivan Salaverry, Daniel Acacio and Crosley Gracie.
A very talented fighter, Kondo just hasn’t shined in Pride the way many expected him to. Many felt he had the neat striking style, grappling skill and experience to exploit Wanderlei Silva’s wild swinging when they fought in 2004. They, and I was one of them, were very, very wrong. Silva just murdered him. That was the first time Kondo had ever been KO’ed in over 50 fights. Even worse, at Bushido 10 in April he was blitzed by Phil Baroni in a shocking 25 seconds. Kondo has also suffered at the hands of Pride judges, dropping a controversial decision to Igor Vovchanchyn, Dan Henderson and Kazuhiro Nakamura. However, his Otoko Matsuri 2005 loss to Nakamura, while close, was more a case of him just being outworked for much of the fight. A late rally where Kondo hurt Nakamura with those crisp punches just wasn’t quite enough. A Pancrase regular since the days of open weight matches, rope breaks and palm strikes, Kondo has been around for a decade. Thanks to the insane Pancrase schedule he’s an old 31 years old and his best days are almost certainly behind him. But Kondo remains a gutsy, skilled fighter and is probably due a good win. Gono’s chin has let him down in the past and while he’s a very effective and varied striker his endurance isn’t as unending as Kondo’s. This should be a fast-paced match and both will want to entertain the crowd and whoever wins, I’m sure that’s exactly what they will do. Look for Kondo’s run of poor results to end with an assured performance and a stoppage win.
PREDICTION: Kondo by TKO late in the first round.
Kazuyuki Fujita vs. Eldar Kurtanidze
On New Year’s Eve 2004, Fujita (13-5) took on Egypt’s Karam Ibrahim Gabar. And he flattened the Olympic gold medal wrestler in 67 seconds. Georgia’s Kurtanidze is a two-time Olympic bronze medallist in 1996 and 2000, and a World champion in 2002 and 2003. He may not make the same bone-headed choice of trying to stand with Fujita as Ibrahim did, but who knows what a 34-year-old, making his MMA debut in front of a huge audience, in a strange country with about 10 days of training will actually do? Many will cite Rulon Gardner’s win over Hidehiko Yoshida but Gardner had a massive weight advantage and some great training partners for several months at Team Quest. Obviously, and with good reason, DSE were desperate to get Fujita, possibly their biggest draw these days on this show and don’t care about the quality of his opponent. Fair enough, and Kurtanidze is a much better wrestler than Fujita. He just won’t win this fight, nor will he have much of a clue when it comes to striking or submissions. This could get very dull, very quickly. Fujita has apparently not been training much since he was brutalised by Wanderlei Silva in July and until James Thompson gassed out in May he was making Fujita look pretty bad in there. Certainly, Fujita’s star has fallen since he gave Fedor Emelianenko a scare with a ‘lucky’ punch and went the distance with Mirko Cro Cop but he’ll be too good and too experienced for Kurtanidze.
PREDICTION: Fujita by TKO midway through the first.
Predictions Re-cap:
Fedor Emelianenko SUB1 Mark Hunt Gilbert Melendez TKO2 Tatsuya Kawajiri Joachim Hansen KO1 Shinya Aoki Mauricio Rua TKO2 Kazuhiro Nakamura Mitsuhiro Ishida DEC Takanori Gomi Kiyoshi Tamura DEC Ikuhisa Minowa Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera DEC Josh Barnett Yuki Kondo TKO1 Akihiro Gono Kazuyuki Fujita TKO1 Eldar Kurtanidze
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