They have also compromised on the quality of the event itself, producing a card laden with mismatch after mismatch.  Strange pairing after strange pairing that seems designed to treat to the American audience to their countrymen taking serious beatings.  Even worse, unlike the phenomenally, if depressingly successful Ortiz-Shamrock rematches, nothing on this show is really going to pull a serious crowd or a monster buy rate.  After waiting so long, DSE may have chosen the worst possible time to invade Zuffa’s territory.  Major MMA shows are hardly a novelty in such an oversaturated market and Pride has very little existing presence in the US.  True, the company seem to have blanketed every available surface in Las Vegas with ads but their shows on FSN draw tiny ratings and their pay-per-views shockingly low buy rates.  As with any Pride show there’s the potential for some real upsets and great excitement but this show is hardly the triumphant US debut they would like.

Line-up:

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Mark Coleman
Mauricio Rua vs. Kevin Randleman
Josh Barnett vs. Pawel Nastula
Mark Hunt vs. Butterbean
Dan Henderson vs. Vitor Belfort
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Marvin Eastman
Joey Villasenor vs. Robbie Lawler
Yosuke Nishijima vs. Phil Baroni

October 21st
Thomas & Mack Centre, Las Vegas

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Mark Coleman

Well, Coleman (15-7) at least has a better chance than Shamrock did against Ortiz this month.  True, he’s in his 40s and has already been humbled by the greatest heavyweight in the history of MMA, but he’s coming off a shocking upset win over Mauricio Rua.  You never know, lightning could strike again.  Coleman matches up terribly with Emelianenko (23-1).  Over a decade older, with poor conditioning, slow, an inaccurate striker and with a weakness for being submitted, Coleman will need something of a miracle to win this fight.  But Shamrock needed about a million concurrent miracles so at least this fight is marginally more competitive.  The only question for Emelianenko is whether his long absences from the ring will someday catch up with him.  A recurring hand injury that seems to have first struck during glasnost has troubled him and he hasn’t fought a vaguely credible opponent in 14 months.  That fight saw him in incredible form against Mirko Cro Cop.  This one will see him just as dominant as the first time he beat Coleman in April 2004.  The only real question is how he finishes ‘the Hammer’ and if it takes him longer than the 131 seconds of their last meeting.

PREDICTION: Emelianenko by submission midway through the first.

Mauricio Rua vs. Kevin Randleman

As with any Randleman (16-11) fight there’s the potential for many different things in this fight.  A shocking upset, a pathetic showing, a predictable destruction, an incredible fight and one of the most abysmally boring athletic contests ever captured on film are all possible in more or less equal doses.  Few would expect him to actually beat 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix champion ‘Shogun’ Rua (13-2) but discounting the possibility entirely would be foolish, particularly after Rua’s stunning loss to Randleman’s mentor Mark Coleman.  Yes, the fight ended with Rua’s gruesome elbow injury but that was caused by a bad landing off a Coleman takedown.  With a similar style to Coleman but with added explosiveness, Randleman should be able to take ‘Shogun’ down as well.  Keeping him there is something Coleman struggled with and so will Randleman.  Rua is after all a wildly energetic fighter.  Still only 24, ‘Shogun’ had an incredible 2005, was chosen as the Kakutougi ‘Breakthrough Fighter of the year’ by a country mile (here) and received plenty of votes in the overall ‘Fighter of the Year’ category as well.  With wins over Hiromitsu Kanehara (an uncomfortable annihilation), Quinton Jackson (a beating), Antonio Rogerio Noguiera (a genuine thriller) Alistair Overeem (taking advantage of the Dutchman’s defective chin and gas tank), Ricardo Arona (shockingly quick), Rua was incredible last year.  He didn’t look on top form in his comeback win over Cyrille Diabate last month but his great stamina, non-stop, free-form striking and underrated ground game should certainly see him through this fight.

Randleman has all the physical tools but mentally is about as fragile as the mercurial Vitor Belfort.  God alone knows what depths of sporting horror those two could sink to if matched up together.  Seemingly incapable of listening to instructions, following a gameplan or even concentrating longer than two or three minutes, Randleman is still an incredible athlete.  But he’s unlikely to repeat the shocking April 2004 win over Mirko Cro Cop here.  Randleman has gone 1-4 since then and can’t reasonably be expected to win this fight.  Rua is just too good and even if he struggles in the opening moments, should just overwhelm Randleman with punches, knees and kicks for the second round win.

PREDICTION: Rua by TKO early in the second.

Josh Barnett vs. Pawel Nastula

Never ones to give new fighters an easy ride, Pride have really outdone themselves with their handling of Polish Judo legend Nastula (1-2).  Feeding him to Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera and Aleksander Emelianenko in his first two fights, Nastula duly went 0-2 but was impressive in both fights.  Surprisingly competitive against Nogueira, he almost submitted a tiring Emelianenko but finally got his first win in July.  Facing a murderous puncher who is suspect on the mat, Nastula took down, bashed and armbarred Edson Drago.  The near-middle-aged Pole showed serious improvement in that fight but will be a heavy underdog against Barnett (19-4).  Just a few weeks removed from his superb and incredibly close decision win over Nogueira and his brutal mauling at the hands of a seemingly unstoppable Mirko Cro Cop, Barnett losing this would still be a major shocker.  At his age Nastula likely only has a few years to make it in this sport but his ability to learn things quickly is evident and he’s one of the most talented Judokas of his generation.  Strong, with great balance, maturity and fantastic technique, Nastula really only lacks MMA experience and striking skill.  He certainly shouldn’t win this fight but it could still be a real war.  The shorter first round and reduced overall distance should suit both men since Barnett has often had stamina problems and Nastula gassed out badly in the Emelianenko fight.

A messy striker, Barnett’s awkward stand-up style is very, very effective.  In his second fight with Mirko Cro Cop a year ago he stood, traded, clinched and kneed very well for much of a fight where his disgraceful lack of conditioning let him down.  Noguiera also had real trouble with Barnett on their feet and was even dropped by a big left hook.  Nastula will take some real punishment if he can’t get Barnett down.  Even on the mat his Judo based style doesn’t match up particularly well with Barnett’s eclectic mixture of Erik Paulson inspired leglocks, some BJJ, amateur and catch wrestling.  Noguiera is incredible on the mat and Barnett wasn’t just competitive with him in a fascinating battle that featured constant subtle shifts and reversals, he brilliantly escaped a first round armbar attempt and had the Brazilian trapped in a perfect kneebar as time ran out.  If Nogueira couldn’t dominate him on the ground then Nastula can’t either.  Basically, it’s hard to think of a way Nastula can win this fight unless Barnett completely gasses out or gets injured.  But that doesn’t mean the fight won’t be exciting.  Barnett should take this, perhaps by decision.

PREDICTION: Barnett by decision after three rounds.

Mark Hunt vs. Butterbean

While on the surface this fight should provide furious stand-up action, looking a little deeper reveals some slightly troubling issues.  Former K-1 World Grand Prix champion Hunt (5-2) has made the transition to MMA extremely well, particularly when facing off with a fighter who suits him stylistically.  Owner of decision wins over Wanderlei Silva (a debatable one) and Mirko Cro Cop (the New Zealander clearly took that one), Hunt has faced and beaten some of the sport’s very best.  He also did far better than expected in his Pride debut, stubbornly resisting and punishing Hidehiko Yoshida before the almost inevitable submission defeat.  With a little more work, unlikely as that is from a fighter so notoriously averse to training, Hunt can be a genuine contender for Heavyweight champion Fedor Emelianenko, despite his very quick submission loss to Josh Barnett in July.  Hunt looked brutally destructive in dismantling the near-suicidally tough Yosuke Nishijima in February and the content of that fight should give a startlingly clear indication of what to expect here.

Nishijima was a fairly successful professional boxer.  True, he held the utterly worthless WBF Cruiserweight title but was technically gifted, had stamina and faced some quality fighters.  The almost spherical Eric ‘Butterbean’ Esch (6-2-1) has been none of those things during his own boxing career.  A heavy handed brawler with good technique compared to the stiffs and bums he fought throughout much of his ongoing 12 year career there’s a reason he’s known as ‘King of the Four Rounders’.  Professional boxers tend to start off in 4 round fights and move steadily upwards to 6, 8, 10 and eventually 12 rounds as they develop and improve.  That generally wasn’t an option for former Toughman competitor Esch, (currently 75-7-4 with the big gloves on) that due to his immense girth and consequent lack of stamina simply stayed in short fights against some shockingly awful fighters.  His fighting style, physique, look and gimmick made Butterbean a short-lived cult hero and earned him far more money and recognition than anyone would have expected but the key point is, nobody has ever taken him particularly seriously.

If for some utterly bizarre reason this actually turns into a competitive fight then Hunt will have struggled to beat a 40-year-old man best remembered for the following career highlights:
1. KO’ing pro wrestler Bart Gunn in mere seconds in the only legitimate fight in WWF Wrestlemania history
2. Giving Johnny Knoxville a pasting during the ‘Department Store Boxing’ scene in the first Jackass movie.
3. Dropping a 10 round decision to legendary WBC Heavyweight champion Larry Holmes.  A mere 52-years-old at the time, Holmes later explained he didn’t want to finish the bulbous Esch inside the distance because “he looked like he needed the exercise.”

If Hunt destroys Butterbean, and he really, really should, then he’s beaten a joke.  If Hunt loses, the hopefully expanded North American audience will just dismiss him as a loser and never really take him seriously.  Now pushing 400 pounds, Butterbean has made the part-time transition to MMA and surprisingly enough done well against extremely limited opponents.  Of course Hunt, with his incredible chin, surprising stamina, obvious aptitude for the sport and excellent striking skills is hardly limited opposition.  Butterbean’s two most notable fights have seen him beat a one-armed ‘Cabbage’ Correira in January and gas out almost immediately before being armbarred by Ikuhisa Minowa in August.  Hunt should bash him to defeat a little quicker than Minowa did in what should be an entertainingly pointless fight.

PREDICTION: Hunt by TKO midway through the first.

NOTE: Hunt has been replaced since writing.

Dan Henderson vs. Vitor Belfort

‘Hollywood’ Henderson (20-5) may be the least ‘showbiz’, and therefore poorly nicknamed fighter in the entire sport.  A truly excellent wrestler, a Team Quest veteran with wins over some excellent opponents, Henderson is unfortunately reliant on his big right hand to the point of utter predictability.  Still the Pride: Bushido welterweight champion despite his decision loss to Kazuo Misaki in August, Henderson should be fighting in the 180 pound range.  Belfort (14-7) will have the clear size advantage and is a truly dangerous striker.  He’s also an unreliable, unpredictable fighter seemingly incapable of putting together two good performances in a row.  His last fight saw him waste the aged Pancrase veteran Yoshiki Takahashi so he could be due for a bad performance here.  Which means this could be a truly wretched fight.  Henderson is the better wrestler by far, and despite looking ragged in the latter stages of both his fights with Misaki, should have better conditioning than the often-tired Brazilian.  He should also have learned from former training partner Randy Couture’s two thoroughly decisive wins over Belfort.  The key is to pressure him and Henderson is a gifted pressure fighter.  And he only needs to go 15 minutes to pick up the win.  Both hit hard and both have good chins but this could well be decided by grappling.  Henderson will be smaller and he’s significantly older, but he’s a solid performer.  Look for him to harass, wrestle and control his way to a spectacularly dull decision win.

PREDICTION: Henderson by unanimous decision.

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Marvin Eastman

There’s a reason why DSE have never employed Eastman (13-6-1) before.  Basically, he’s a decent fighter but one who should be eaten alive by most of their roster.  If Nakamura (10-5), with his major edge in grappling, his youth and his track record against better opposition doesn’t win this fight, then Eastman will have pulled off a real surprise.  Eastman really hasn’t faced elite opposition for quite some time, though he was desperately unlucky to lose the decision in his May 2005 KOTC fight with the UFC-bound Jason Lambert.  Since then Hidehiko Yoshida’s protégé has faced Wanderlei Silva, Igor Vovchanchyn, Yuki Kondo and Josh Barnett.  True he’s gone 2-2 in those fights and added wins over the hideously one-dimensional Evangelista Santos and the almost criminally boring Yoshihiro Nakao, but Nakamura has just mixed with much better fighters, at a much higher level.  Eastman is a hurtful, experienced striker but Nakamura is just better.  Look for him to trade with Eastman (who has a questionable chin) early, before taking him down, hammer-fisting and punching him to defeat.

PREDICTION: Nakamura by TKO late in the second.

NOTE: Eastman has been replaced since writing.

Joey Villasenor vs. Robbie Lawler

I’m not exactly fluent in Spanish but Villasenor (22-4) seems to translate as ‘Mr Town’.  Such a great name should, all by itself make everyone cheer for him against the boringly named Lawler (11-4).  And on a show so thoroughly stuffed to bursting point with predictable looking mismatches, Mr Town and the Miletich prodigy should have a cracking fight.  Stylistically and in terms of both men having something to prove, this should be a lot of fun.  Both just love to stand and trade and both have had real success doing so.  A former UFC favourite, Lawler seems to have lost his way somewhat over the last 3 years.  After starting his explosive career at 7-0 and being hyped to the moon and back again by the ever-excitable Joe Rogan, Lawler has struggled, going 4-4.  He’s beaten some good fighters in Chris Lytle and Falaniko Vitale but has looked far from impressive in losses to Pete Spratt, Nick Diaz and Evan Tanner (where he looked absolutely awful).  He had his moments in his recent fight with Jason ‘Mayhem’ Miller but ultimately the maddest man on myspace.com finished Lawler with an arm triangle in the third.  Lawler is an aggressive, concussive puncher who may never really develop the rest of his game enough to be a top fighter.  Mr Town has been a fighter since 1999 and was, for a long time, one of KOTC’s very best.  He finally got the recognition he deserved with his Pride debut, a close decision loss to Ryo Chonan that provided most of the entertainment on an uncharacteristically boring Bushido event.  Since then, Mr Town has stopped the hugely experienced and criminally underrated John Cronk and I have a sneaky feeling he will be a little too good for the still raw (even after all this time) Lawler.  Expect both men to hurt the other and to see some surprisingly entertaining grappling in what should be the best, and most competitive fight of the night.

PREDICTION: Mr Town by decision after three rounds.

Yosuke Nishijima vs. Phil Baroni

Former professional boxer Nishijima (0-3) won an army of fans with his tremendously brave performance against Mark Hunt in his MMA debut in February.  His army must have seen more desertions than the Wehrmacht in 1944 and 1945 since then as Nishijima has just been bitterly disappointing.  A submission loss to Hidehiko Yoshida was expected but allowing himself to be choked out by Evangelista ‘Cyborg’ Santos was, well, a little embarrassing.  Nobody would have minded had Santos just overwhelmed him with strikes but losing by submission?  Oh dear.  Nishijima has a great chin, good handspeed and neat boxing skills but no discernable grappling ability.  The always-entertaining Baroni (9-7) may be under the deluded impression he’s an undefeated giant with the fastest, hardest punches in the universe but he should be too well-rounded for Nishijima.  Despite his obsession with punching, Baroni is an accomplished wrestler and should his inevitable strategy of standing with Nishijima not be working, he can rely on his strength and wrestling technique to take down and control his opponent.  Baroni is awful off his back but Nishijima just isn’t going to fight that way.  Like the Mr Town-Lawler fight, this could provide plenty of fireworks, particularly as Baroni fully understands his brash personality and punching prowess are what keep him in work after so many defeats.  ‘The New York Bad Ass’ may need to call on that wrestling background to do it but he should bludgeon Nishijima to defeat around the halfway mark.

PREDICTION: Baroni by TKO in the second.

Predictions Re-cap:

Fedor Emelianenko TKO1 Mark Coleman
Mauricio Rua TKO2 Kevin Randleman
Josh Barnett DEC3 Pawel Nastula
Mark Hunt TKO1 Butterbean
Dan Henderson DEC3 Vitor Belfort
Kazuhiro Nakamura TKO2 Marvin Eastman
Joey Villasenor DEC3 Robbie Lawler
Phil Baroni TKO2 Yosuke Nishijima

A live play by play for this event will be held here.