In a way you can’t blame Zuffa as they are making money hand over fist and cramming an undercard with cheap, low profile fighters is not only a.) good business as it cuts costs b.) somewhat understandable given how many shows they run these days.  But complacency is the enemy of a dominant promotion and Dana White and co. should be aware that overexposure and too many mediocre shows will sooner or later derail the cash-laden bandwagon they’ve done so much work to get rolling.  UFC 64: Unstoppable is another of those one match shows.  The Rich Franklin and Anderson Silva main event is fascinating but everything else, including the vacant Lightweight title match is more vaguely interesting than genuinely exciting.

Line-up:

UFC Middleweight title: Rich Franklin vs. Anderson Silva
Vacant UFC Lightweight title: Sean Sherk vs. Kenny Florian
Jon Fitch vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Cheick Kongo vs. Carmelo Marrero
Spencer Fisher vs. Dan Lauzon
Keith Jardine vs. Mike Nickels
Yushin Okami vs. Kalib Starnes
Clay Guida vs. Justin James
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Junior Assuncao

October 14th
Mandalay Bay, Las Vegas

UFC Middleweight title: Rich Franklin vs. Anderson Silva

The Spider’ Silva (16-4) may be the underdog in betting circles but this is one of the hardest UFC main events to predict in quite some time.  Those who have seen more of Anderson Silva will likely favour him since he’s such an incredibly talented striker.  Franklin (20-1) is a great strategist (despite his bizarre advice to Matt Serra in one of the most dismal ‘soap opera’ segments of a truly dismal TUF4) and is naturally a much bigger man.  He’s also a finely balanced fighter, extremely capable in every facet of MMA.  His only real weakness seems to be his suspect chin, though his somewhat looping punches could also be exploited by Silva’s faster, neater Muay Thai style.  Silva may not be the biggest middleweight around but he has chilling punching power to go along with his speed, ingenuity and technique.  If he lands a really good shot as he did on the clearly overmatched Chris Leben, Franklin could be in serious trouble.  Lyoto Machida hammered Franklin and Anthony Rea, Jorge Rivera and Evan Tanner all hurt him with punches.  Anyone thinking Silva can’t do the same is either foolish or just isn’t familiar with one of the sport’s most electrifying fighters.

A look at their two common opponents may be useful in trying to pick a winner.  Both men finished Curtis Stout with their fists and both looked excellent in their wins over the Kansas City banger.  Franklin bashed Stout to defeat in Hawaii and Silva left him unconscious on the mat in London.  Both have also beaten Jorge Rivera, but their respective fights with ‘El Conquistador’ were very different.  Franklin, in just his second fight at 185 pounds struggled for much of his Rivera match.  He looked to be on his way to a decision win but had been badly hurt by Rivera, he was sporting an ugly swelling on his left cheek and was looking exhausted.  Franklin still finished it inside the distance, armbarring his opponent late in the third.  Silva had no such trouble with Rivera.  At Cage Rage 14 last December he just completely outclassed Rivera, showcasing his full array of striking skills.  Silva was exceptional that night, fast, slick and battering Rivera with punches, knees and elbows for the TKO win in the second round.  To be fair, Franklin hasn’t looked anything like as hollow-cheeked and bug-eyed since that fight, suggesting he really struggled with making weight and had problems with dehydration.  His dominant showings in title match wins over Evan Tanner (a long dismantling with only one or two wobbly moments), Nate Quarry (a quick and brutal KO) and David Loiseau (a five round destruction) prove he’s settled nicely at his new weight and has plenty of stamina in reserve.

Overall, Silva has faced tougher opposition and has also made definite improvements to his ground game.  It seems odd now to think it was less than 2 years ago when he lost to Ryo Chonan and just 9 months since he lost by disqualification for a very creative sliding upkick that knocked Yushin Okami senseless while the Japanese fighter was on top of him.  Meanwhile, Franklin has been putting together an 8-fight winning streak and looking very, very good along the way.  The key to this fight is whether Franklin can defend against Silva’s fists, feet, knees and elbows and whether he can dictate the pace and content of the fight.  He’s the better wrestler, the bigger, stronger man and has demonstrated an ability to neutralise and punish dangerous strikers.  Silva though has more experience, has fought all over the world, is much faster and has a huge edge in striking skill.  Both have great stamina, are composed veterans, and are capable of pouncing on the slightest mistake and finishing the fight decisively.  Franklin may control the fight in the early stages but sooner or later, Silva will get the breakthrough he wants and a fight Franklin looks to be on the way to victory in could turn around very, very suddenly.  Expect another highlight reel worthy display of Muay Thai precision from the Brazilian and the crowning of a new champion.

PREDICTION: Silva by TKO late in the third.

A Bunch of Matches:

At first it seems ludicrous to consider a vacant title match as ‘just another fight’ but the bout between Sean Sherk and Kenny Florian hardly pits the sport’s best 155 pounders against each other.  With little experience at the weight, Sherk (30-2-1) is an odd choice of title challenger.  Particularly since he’s coming off a thorough dismantling at the hands of Georges St. Pierre at UFC 56 and a workmanlike decision win over Nick Diaz at UFC 59.  Both fights were at 170 pounds and Sherk is hardly the kind of charismatic entertainer who gets extra opportunities because of his personality and entertainment value.  He’s a great wrestler and decent at everything else.  He really had nowhere to go at welterweight so a move down to 155 makes sense, even if an immediate title shot doesn’t.  The fact his opponent is Florian (4-2) does help to explain things.  Florian just hasn’t earned a title shot at any weight.  He’s looked very good in his last two wins, choking out Kit Cope and Sam Stout and has impeccable BJJ credentials and some very sharp elbows.  Clearly a Zuffa favourite, the promotion is presumably hoping he can catch Sherk with a submission or cut him open and become the first TUF graduate titleholder.  He could, but the likeliest outcome is the powerful, efficient but mechanical Sherk taking him down, controlling him and grinding out either a boring decision or late stoppage victory.  Sherk has all the physical tools to do it and for all ‘KenFlo’s submission skill, ‘the Muscle Shark’ (by God they have awful nicknames) has never been tapped out.  Whatever happens, lets just hope none of the commentary team proclaim the winner “the best Lightweight in the world”.

Originally supposed to fight BJ Penn, well-regarded Shooto regular Kuniyoshi Hironaka (10-2) is making a rare appearance inside a cage.  His opponent is the talented AKA wrestler Jon Fitch (11-2) in the only truly great looking undercard match of the entire show.  Both are excellent grapplers, with Fitch being a high quality freestyle wrestler who’s improved tremendously since moving to AKA.  Now 3-0 in UFC, Fitch has looked very good in his wins over Brock Larson, Josh Burkman and Thiago Alves.  He’s won his last 10 fights (though his decision win over Jeff Joslin was more than a bit iffy) and should be the favourite to keep his winning streak alive here.  Hironaka has some great BJJ and Judo skills and like Fitch is an aggressive fighter so this could be a cracker.  It’s a very big fight for both of them.  And both have beaten some very good fighters.  Expect a thrilling 15 minutes and Fitch pulling off a close decision win.

French Muay Thai stylist Cheick Kongo (9-2-1) only made his UFC debut in July and is already back for the third time.  He finished both Gilbert Aldana and Christian Wellisch in the first round and as long as he can stay vertical in this match, should repeat the trick with the unbeaten Carmelo Marrero (5-0).  This is a huge leap up in class for Pennsylvania’s Marrero, even if Kongo has little stamina and less ground skills.  Marrero does have mat skills but is unlikely to survive the considerably taller and heavier Kongo’s multi-faceted striking for long.  Marrero has never really been tested while Kongo is really on a roll.  Look for another first round win for the Frenchman who thanks to UFC’s dismal ‘big man’ roster, is already a legitimate contender for the company’s heavyweight title.

Dan Lauzon (3-0) is 18 years old.  That’s right, an inexperienced teenager from Dana White’s old stomping ground of Massachusetts is making his UFC debut against the very dangerous Spencer Fisher (18-2).  Still, his brother Joe pulled off a stunning upset of Jens Pulver less than a month ago at UFC 63.  Will lightning strike twice for the Lauzons against the Miletich camp?  No.  Fisher is coming off a great little fight with Matt Wiman at UFC 60, a match he ended with a beautiful flying knee and one of this year’s best finishes.  With all his experience and considerable skill, he should give the younger Lauzon a good beating.  Look for Fisher to win by first round TKO.

Here we go again.  Yet another inter-TUF contest on a UFC show.  Unfortunately for TUF3’s Mike Nickels (4-1), he’s facing a far better fighter in Keith Jardine (11-2-1).  Nickels has good submission skills but shockingly weak striking while Jardine, a teammate of people like Diego Sanchez, is a very effective, if hardly flashy, all-rounder.  Look for Jardine, who has some great low kicks, to control the fight standing before wearing down and pounding out his opponent in the second half of the fight.

Another TUF competitor, Canada’s Kalib Starnes (7-0-1) faces an uphill battle against Yushin Okami (17-3) at middleweight.  Older by six years, Starnes is less experienced and has faced lesser opposition.  Two of Okami’s losses are by controversial split decisions to Jake Shields and Falaniko Vitale.  And he’s beaten some very good fighters in Kousei Kubota, Ryuta Sakurai and Izuru Takeuchi.  A veteran of Pancrase, Superbrawl, Rumble on the Rock and the now sadly renamed GCM:DOG, 25-year-old Okami is just a better fighter, particularly on the mat.  He should finish Starnes with punches on the ground late in the fight.

An incredibly busy fighter with a 20-6 record in just over 3 years, lightweight Clay Guida’s performances for the California based Strikeforce promotion were a revelation.  An aggressive, talented and relentless wrestler, Guida beat Josh Thomson by unanimous decision and dropped a split verdict to the excellent Gilbert Melendez 3 months later.  Both fights went the full 5 rounds and amply demonstrated the 24-year-old Guida’s skill and stamina.  Justin James (11-5) looks to be in trouble.  The only ‘name fighters’ on his record, Rich Clementi and Jorge Gurgel, both tapped him out and while he’s a good grappler he won’t be able to subdue Guida long enough to try for the submission.  Both like the submission game but Guida should make an eye-catching UFC debut and win this one with his fists, perhaps early on.

Finally at welterweight, Hermes Franca’s teammate Kurt Pellegrino (8-2) looks to make up for his UFC 61 loss to Drew Fickett as he takes on Junior Assuncao (4-1).  A late replacement, Assuncao will be the underdog against a very talented grappler.  Look for the more skilled Pellegrino to snap Junior’s 4-fight winning streak with a second round submission.

A live play by play for this event will be held here.