Line-up:

UFC Welterweight title: Matt Hughes vs. BJ Penn
David Loiseau vs. Mike Swick
Rashad Evans vs. Jason Lambert
Jens Pulver vs. Joe Lauzon
Melvin Guillard vs. Gabe Ruediger
Roger Huerta vs. Jason Dent
Mario Neto vs. Eddie Sanchez
Danny Abbadi vs. Jorge Gurgel
David Lee vs. Tyson Griffin

September 23rd
Anaheim Pond, California

UFC Welterweight title: Matt Hughes vs. BJ Penn

Four months after he savaged UFC Hall of Famer Royce Gracie inside a round at UFC 60, Hughes (39-4) was due to put his title on the line against his logical eventual successor as the promotion’s dominant welterweight, Georges St. Pierre.  Tragically (and that’s not much of an exaggeration) ‘Rush’ suffered a groin injury in mid August serious enough for him to withdraw.  So, with around a month to prepare, the last man to defeat Hughes stepped in for another chance of upsetting the odds and again winning the welterweight title.  Penn (10-3-1) went into their first fight at UFC 46 as serious underdog but shocked an overconfident Hughes with a dominating performance and climactic rear naked choke for the first round win.  Before the fight Hughes was disdainful of Penn “disrespecting” him by daring to step up from 155 pounds and go for the title.  His attitude probably should have motivated him but instead he seemed certain he’d walk through the chubby cheeked little Hawaiian and thereby severely underestimated an exceptionally talented fighter.  Afterwards Hughes talked of the relief at losing the title and no longer facing the pressure of being the defending champion.  Its doubtful a second loss to Penn will make him feel the same way though.  And he’d have to be a complete imbecile to take Penn lightly again.

Hughes is a training machine, pushing himself and his partners to the very limit and is unlikely to ever run out of gas during a fight.  A fixture at Miletich Fighting Systems for several years, Hughes’ preparation is usually exhaustive and meticulous.  The only real change here is that for the first time in years he won’t have Pat Miletich in his corner for the fight.  Miletich is fighting Renzo Gracie at an IFL show in Illinois on the same night.  The impact of that may be small for Hughes (if not for the increasingly paranoid Miletich who actually seems to think Zuffa scheduled a major pay-per-view on that date merely to screw with him, his camp and the pretty insignificant IFL) as he’s such a professional.  Both men have competed 5 times since that first match in January 2004 but their respective records and performances have been very different.  Hughes has gone 5-0, surviving Penn mentor Renato Verissimo’s high quality BJJ to grind out a dull decision win and expertly finishing off the dangerous St. Pierre with an armbar a second away from the end of the first round.  Hughes struggled early with the energetic St. Pierre and was almost TKO’ed by Frank Trigg before turning the fight around with a highlight reel slam and finishing things with a rear naked choke in a wildly dramatic 4 minutes and 5 seconds.  Since then he’s demolished late replacement (and inefficient weight-cutter) Joe Riggs and obliterated Gracie.

Former Zuffa golden boy Penn has gone 3-2 and often looked less than impressive.  Fighting in Hawaii and Japan for K-1’s MMA offshoots, something seems to have been missing.  True he routinely took down and choked out Duane Ludwig but his last 4 fights have all gone the distance.  And none of them have been particularly good.  First he decisioned Rodrigo Gracie.  A good fighter yes, but mechanical and predictable and Penn never looked like finishing him, despite completely dominating the last round.  Penn followed that by taking his ‘open weight’ obsession a little too far and fighting 210-pounder Ryoto Machida.  A dull, unremarkable fight where neither man ever looked like doing much, Penn clearly had trouble with Machida’s size and strength.  Penn then decisioned Renzo Gracie.  That would be the almost 40 years old, Renzo Gracie.  The Renzo Gracie who hasn’t won a fight against a worthwhile opponent since 1999.  Even worse, Renzo won the first round and although Penn clearly won the fight, again he never looked like finishing off his opponent.  As a condition of his return to the Zuffa camp, BJ demanded a fight with St. Pierre and despite a strong start where he controlled the first round and bloodied the French Canadian but seemed to completely run out of steam after that.  Uninspired and lacking in stamina, Penn has only himself to blame for dropping a split decision.  St. Pierre took the second and third with his takedowns and higher workrate while Penn did little beyond clinching, defending and staring at the clock.

Recent form certainly suggests Hughes should win and there’s a very good reason why Penn was the 3-1 underdog in the first fight.  He deserves enormous credit for his humbling of the seemingly unstoppable Hughes but the Miletich fighter should re-assert his dominance in this one.  He clearly has more stamina at this weight, is brutally strong and a great wrestler.  Penn certainly has the advantage in submissions as he showed last time but the chances are Hughes will take him down, force him to the fence and punish him with punches and elbows.  Nobody in his 5-year career has ever beaten Penn down but a properly prepared and motivated Hughes is capable of doing just that.  And he should.  Look for Hughes to take him down, wear him down, tire him out and finish it with some vicious ground n’ pound.

PREDICTION: Hughes by TKO late in the second.

David Loiseau vs. Mike Swick

While criticism levelled at several of the promotion’s TUF graduates status within the company has in many cases been justified, there are a few exceptions.  Diego Sanchez, Forrest Griffin and Chris Leben are all genuine names at varying levels of legitimate, hopeful or fairly fanciful title contention.  If American Kickboxing Academy star Swick (9-1) beats Loiseau (14-5) then his name should definitely be added to that list.  He’ll face the toughest fight of his career though.  Swick has lost just twice, once officially to Chris Leben in January 2004, and once during a TUF1 fight he was doing very well in against the larger Stephan Bonnar.  Swick certainly lives up to his nickname with 7 wins in less than 2:30 and eye-catching knockout victories over current IFL fighter Alex Schoenauer and TUF4 contestant Gideon Ray in 20 and 22 seconds.  He’s won his last two with the cheesily renamed ‘Swick-o-tine’, taking out both Steve Vigneault and Joe Riggs.  Full of potential, the 27-year-old Swick has everything Zuffa should be looking for in a potential title challenger – speed, skill, power, aggression and name value.  He’s also got the backing of one of the sport’s best teams and this is his biggest chance to prove he’s more than an over-promoted TUF fighter who doesn’t deserve the spotlight.  Really, he’s already shown that but some still doubt him.  His performance here, win or lose, should change a few minds.

Fast, elusive, aggressive and exciting, ‘the Crow’ Loiseau is one of the company’s most dynamic, entertaining fighters.  He’s also the owner of some of the sport’s most vindictively effective elbows, slicing apart former Middleweight champion Evan Tanner and Miletich veteran Tony Fryklund.  Loiseau is also a real survivor, able to extract himself from difficult situations on the ground and come back to punish his opponent.  Still, he’s coming off a ruinous and protracted destruction at the hands of Rich Franklin at UFC 58.  Loiseau lasted the distance but was dismantled by the champion in all areas.  Swick is no Franklin though and Loiseau should be the favourite here, despite the way he was so comprehensively taken apart just over six months ago.  Like Swick, Loiseau is more than competent on the mat but this is likely to be decided on their feet.  Swick and Loiseau have a couple of common opponents and interestingly, Swick dispatched both of them much faster and much more easily.  Ray lasted a full round with Loiseau and Vigneault went ten minutes.  Both have been cleanly KO’ed before as well and either man has the speed, power and technique to end this one very, very suddenly.  Expect a ruthless finish, whoever wins.  Loiseau has more experience and has shown more versatility with his striking, using spinning back kicks, flying knees, punches and elbows.  He may just be a little too good and a little too versatile in what may start off cautiously but should explode into some fascinating violence.  Look for Loiseau to pick up the TKO and keep himself in the title picture with a highlight reel finish in the later stages.

PREDICTION: Loiseau by TKO midway through the third.

Jason Lambert vs. Rashad Evans

A quietly rising star who’s impressed in all three of his UFC appearances, California native Lambert (22-5) must be getting sick to death of fighting wrestlers.  He debuted for Zuffa against brave but limited TUF2 fighter Rob MacDonald at UFC 58, picking up a quick submission win.  At UFC 59 he had trouble with squat, powerful wrestler Terry Martin early in their fight but turned things around in the second and battered his opponent to defeat.  Most recently he obliterated Hammerhouse throwback Branden Lee Hinkle in a total bloodfest on the un-televised under card of UFN5.  A former heavyweight, Lambert has picked up some impressive wins since dropping to 205 pounds and is now riding an 8-fight winning streak.  A good, relentless wrestler with decent striking skills and incredible determination, Lambert has not lost since dropping a decision to Chael Sonnen in late 2003.  He’s forced a submission out of Matt Horwich, tapped out the otherwise unbeaten Richard Montoya, decisioned Marvin Eastman and most recently, KO’ed Travis Wiuff.  Lambert may have been a little fortunate to pick up the spilt decision against Eastman since he was dropped in each of the three rounds and looked out of it on a couple of occasions but he always recovered quickly and came back fighting.  He showed some good all-round skills, real aggression, a great chin and plenty of heart in a thrilling fight with the former UFC fighter.  He has plenty of experience but may struggle against unbeaten TUF3 contract winner Evans (8-0).

Evans picked up an unwelcome reputation for boring victories over three rounds during TUF2 with wins over Tom Murphy (awful fight), Mike Whitehead (horrid fight) and Keith Jardine (a decent match).  Since then he’s beaten the immense Brad Imes, in a cracking high-energy, low-skills brawl and Sam Hoger, both by split decision.  Most recently he completely dominated TUF1 contract winner Stephan Bonnar at UFN5.  Evans’ most impressive performance saw him repeatedly slam and control the disappointing Bonnar throughout their fight.  Only a complete idiot could have judged anything other than a 30-27 (at worst) victory for Evans so the fight’s official result of a majority decision says plenty about the quality of some Nevada State judges.  Like Lambert, Evans is a wrestler first and a striker second.  A great athlete, Evans has the physical tools to be a real star but seems stuck with a win at all costs mentality which sees him fall back on his wrestling when he should be exploring other options.  This makes him extremely dull at times but he’s certainly effective.  A poor finisher facing a genuinely tough fighter with a strong chin, this one may well go the distance yet again.  Evans is a much more accomplished wrestler and while Lambert is a great test for him, he should continue his winning ways in what could be a tough, gruelling match for both fighters and the fans.

PREDICTION: Evans by decision after three rounds.

Jens Pulver vs. Joe Lauzon

Former UFC Lightweight champion and rumoured TUF5 trainer Pulver (21-6-1) hasn’t fought in UFC since January 2002.  Walking out on the company while the reigning champion to take a much better money offer from Antonio Inoki’s predictably short-lived UFO promotion (a solitary, very expensive show that was not a success in any way) Pulver seemed to have burned his bridges with Zuffa.  ‘Li’l Evil’ walked feeling underpaid and undervalued after apparently earning less than his opponents in each of his title fights, throwing the division and the belt, into turmoil for the first time.  Zuffa set up a title tournament they clearly hoped promotional golden boy BJ Penn (who Pulver beat by decision at UFC 35) would win but instead he went to a disappointing draw with Caol Uno and the belt was left in limbo.  With no direction or ultimate goal for the 155 pounders, Zuffa stopped booking the division completely after Yves Edwards’ spectacular UFC 49 victory over Josh Thomson.  Finally, after much grumbling from fans the Lightweights returned (prompted simply by the sheer number of events UFC are now running) this year and Dana White extended the olive branch to Pulver.  If he wins this fight, the former champion will likely face the winner of the Sean Sherk vs. Kenny Florian match for the vacant title sometime in 2007.  And Pulver should win.  He’s been very active since leaving, going 9-4, fighting in smaller North American shows, Shooto and Pride and facing some of the sport’s very best around his weight.  Aside from surprising losses to Duane Ludwig and Jason Maxwell, Pulver has looked very good.  True Hayato Sakurai and Takanori Gomi have stopped him inside ten minutes but losses to those two are hardly anything to be ashamed of.  Along the way Pulver has tried pro boxing and used his fast, hurtful punching and well-rounded skills (he wrestled in college at Boise State) to beat good fighters like Takehiro Murahama, Joe Jordan, Naoya Uematsu, Stephen Palling, Kenji Arai and Cole Escovedo.  This really should be a triumphant UFC return.

Lauzon (13-3) really deserves top lose just for having the nickname ‘J-Lau’.  Making his debut in early 2004, Lauzon reeled off 8 submission wins before running into underrated Florida based fighter Jorge Masvidal, losing by TKO.  The only other two men to beat Lauzon (both by submission) have been the hugely talented Ivan Menjivar and the unbeaten and very impressive Rafael Assuncao.  Lauzon’s last outing saw him win a one-night tournament in April, beating all 3 opponents inside a round – two by submission and one with a slam KO.  A ground specialist who started out in grappling, Lauzon has 11 wins by submission but the 22-year-old is giving up a huge amount of experience and will be outclassed on his feet.  Pulver can and should keep this fight standing.  Look for him to do just that and KO Lauzon around the midway point in the fight.

PREDICTION: Jens Pulver KO2 Joe Lauzon

Melvin Guillard vs. Gabe Ruediger

Brash, charismatic TUF2 fighter Guillard (20-5-2) is a gifted, busy striker with some great kicks and a background in freestyle wrestling.  Ridiculously experienced for a 23-year-old, the New Orleans native (who saved several people’s lives during the Hurricane Katrina disaster) now fights out of Salt Lake City and also works with Team Punishment at Big Bear in California.  Coming off a beautiful 97 second KO of Rick Davis at UFC 60, Guillard is always entertaining.  At UFN3, in his last loss, he blasted Josh Neer with some nasty elbows and opened a horrific cut over the right eye.  Neer reacted calmly though and slipped in a very nice triangle choke late in the first, pulling off a great win in a battle against both Guillard and the growing inevitability that the fight would be stopped sooner or later by the doctor.  Losing to current teammate Josh Burkman during TUF2 and stopping Marcus Davis at that season’s finale, Guillard has struggled with quality grapplers but is a fast, overwhelmingly aggressive fighter.  He’s been in there with some very good fighters like Roger Huerta, the experienced LaVerne Clark and Carlo Prater.  Submitted in 4 of his career losses, Guillard may be vulnerable against a quality grappler like Milennia Jiu-jitsu member ‘Godzilla’ Ruediger (10-2).  True he was KO’ed in just 36 seconds by Hermes Franca in March at WEC19 in losing his WEC Lightweight title but Franca is a great fighter.  That said, Ruediger’s utter lack of defence for any of Franca’s right hands (overhands, uppercuts, hooks) is worrying when considering how fast and hard Guillard hits.  That loss also raises questions about Ruediger’s chin but he’s a very dangerous fighter on the ground.  A big lightweight, he avenged his only other career loss (in his debut) by beating Sam Wells by decision last year.  The Lucha Libre mask wearing Ruediger has used his grappling skills to outclass and submit the powerful Savant Young and the ludicrous Olaf Alfonso.  If he can take Guillard down and keep him there he can pull off the win.  On an undercard awash with one-sided looking fights, this could be a great, competitive, if short fight.  Look for Guillard to come out aggressively and hurt Ruediger but get overly excited and make a mistake that allows the Californian back into the fight.  If that happens then Ruediger’s major edge in submissions should spell the difference.

PREDICTION: Ruediger by submission late in the first.

Roger Huerta vs. Jason Dent

Originally set to face Hermes Franca at UFC 61, Huerta (14-1-1) was forced to pull out injured but returns here to face Midwest Muay Thai champion and late replacement Dent (12-6).  An All American wrestler in high school, the powerful ‘El Matador’ Huerta has been fighting professionally for just over 3 years.  Riding a 10-fight winning streak, his one loss to Ryan Schultz came in the final of a one-night tournament at Superbrawl 36 in 2004, and that was a submission due to an injury.  Huerta did lose a split decision to TUF2 fighter and rising UFC star Melvin Guillard in March 2005 but that (very questionable decision) was later overturned by the athletic commission since Huerta had trouble grabbing hold of his opponent since Guillard was practically being dipped in a vat of Vaseline in-between rounds.  Even dealing with an energetic, illegally slippery opponent, Huerta dominated the fight and has a real chance to pull off a winning UFC debut.  A Miletich fighter who learned stand-up skills under Guy Mezger, Huerta has incredible potential.  Bursting with energy and with great stamina reserves (finalist in two one-night tournaments) Huerta has wins over quality fighters like Harris Sarmiento, Naoyuki Kotani and Matt Wiman.  Dent is riding a 4-fight winning streak but is more notable for his losses to good fighters than for any of his wins.  Dent has lost to Paulo Dantas, Jeff Curran, Ryan Schultz and Tetsuji Kato, all of them talented fighters, but just isn’t good enough to beat Huerta.  Look for the Minneapolis based ‘El Matador’ to constantly press the action, keep the fight on his terms with his aggressive wrestling style and walk away with a dominant decision victory.

PREDICTION: Huerta by decision after three rounds.

Mario Neto vs. Eddie Sanchez

Ultra-experienced Brazilian heavyweight ‘Sukata’ (9-3) has had a triumphant 2006 so far.  He’s been dominant in his appearances for England’s Cage Warriors promotion.  Returning to action after a 3-year layoff this March, he thoroughly controlled and physically dominated Przemyslaw Mysiala, finishing his Polish opponent with an arm triangle late in the first round after using powerful takedowns and some flawless ground control to thoroughly wear down his opponent before finishing him off.  The head instructor at the highly respected Wolfslair Gym (where Michael Bisping and several other British fighters have been flourishing) is a powerfully built, highly skilled fighter who has picked up two more first round wins since then.  He needed just 36 seconds to take down and batter German kickboxer Markus Hipp and choked out an overmatched Paul Bowers in June.  Neto has an excellent pedigree.  A veteran of the mid-1990s Brazilian Vale Tudo scene, ‘Sukata’ has gone 40 minutes with the 1996 version of Dan Severn, been in there with Kevin Randleman (a losing effort in 1997) and also beaten Gary Goodridge, Travis Fulton and TUF2 contestant Seth Petruzelli.  In March 2003, ‘Sukata’ displayed his skills and stamina, winning the one-night WAFC tournament in Moscow and putting in more than 40 minutes along the way.  He beat Roman Savochka and John Dixon before taking a decision over local favourite Valery Pliev in the final.  Originally set to face Gabriel Gonzaga (the hugely disappointing Brazilian heavyweight had visa problems), Neto will instead meet the unbeaten, but fairly untested Sanchez (5-0).  The 23-year-old Californian should have the backing of the crowd in his home state.  An athletic former baseball player with a powerful right hand, Sanchez has little chance in this fight.  ‘Sukata’ is just too good, particularly on the mat and too experienced for the young late replacement.

PREDICTION: Neto by submission late in the first.

Danny Abbadi vs. Jorge Gurgel

According to Zuffa, Tae kwon Do teacher and TUF3 contestant Abbadi is 2-2.  Its hard to imagine who he actually beat since he showed little in his TUF3 fight with Ed Herman and basically quit when he gave Herman his arm and set himself up for the submission loss.  He was back at that season’s finale and again lost by submission to Kalib Starnes.  He may be naturally much bigger than Gurgel (9-2) but those results suggest it won’t be long before he’s tapping out again in this one.  Gurgel showed his striking has improved greatly at UFN5 in his spirited decision loss to Mark Hominick.  The young Canadian controlled the fight but Gurgel did far better when forced to stay on his feet than many would have expected.  And he has some great grappling skills.  All nine of his professional wins have been by submission, his last four by guillotine choke and the only man to ‘officially’ beat him was leglock master Masakazu Imanari with, of course, a heel hook in their 2003 fight in ZST.  He’s battled serious knee injuries but has far more experience, far more submission skill and should simply dominate this fight.  Abbadi’s only chance in this one is to beat Gurgel standing.  Given the evidence of the Gurgel-Hominick fight, he won’t be able to do that, will get taken down and tapped out in a quick mismatch.

PREDICTION: Gurgel by submission midway through the first.

David Lee vs. Tyson Griffin

Unbeaten 22-year-old Tyson Griffin (7-0) is one of North America’s most highly rated lower weight fighters.  On paper. Cage Rage veteran Lee (5-1), only the fifth Englishman to fight on a UFC card in America, is in for a very tough time.  Unbeaten since June 2003, Lee is gifted with, and constantly looks for submissions.  All five of his wins have come by submission, four of them with chokes.  But loudmouthed beginner Jason Barrett, 2-4 Elite (the ‘home gym’ of the Cage Rage promotion) fighter Rick Andrews and the low profile Dennis Kelly on the English scene won’t have prepared BJJ purple belt Lee for the kind of violent onslaught he can expect from Griffin.  The Californian looked phenomenal in his first round stoppage win over Duane Ludwig at the second Strikeforce event in June and has also finished Urijah Faber with his fists.  A wrestler throughout high school, Griffin has been learning submissions since 2003 but this fight is really a question of whether Lee can withstand his busy striking, raw power and handspeed for long enough to even try a submission.  The chances are he won’t.  Lee is a tough fighter but has been brought in for Griffin to beat quickly and in style.  That’s exactly what should happen.  Look for Griffin to score another first round win with his fists.

PREDICTION: Griffin by TKO midway through the first.

Predictions Re-cap:

Matt Hughes TKO2 BJ Penn
David Loiseau TKO3 Mike Swick
Rashad Evans DEC3 Jason Lambert
Jens Pulver KO2 Joe Lauzon
Gabe Ruediger SUB1 Melvin Guillard
Roger Huerta DEC3 Jason Dent
Mario Neto SUB1 Eddie Sanchez
Jorge Gurgel SUB1 Danny Abbadi
Tyson Griffin TKO1 David Lee