Line-up:

Open Weight Grand Prix Semi Final: Wanderlei Silva vs. Mirko Cro Cop
Open Weight Grand Prix Semi Final: Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera vs. Josh Barnett
Open Weight Grand Prix Final
Alternate Fight: Sergei Kharitonov vs. Aleksander Emelianenko
Non-tournament fights:
Evangelista ‘Cyborg’ Santos vs. Yosuke Nishijima
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Yoshihiro Nakao
Ricardo Arona vs. Alistair Overeem
Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Cyrille Diabate
Ricardo Morais vs. Lee Tae Hyun

September 10th

Open Weight Grand Prix Semi Final: Wanderlei Silva vs. Mirko Cro Cop

Almost six years ago, Silva (31-5-1) and Cro Cop (19-4-2) met under modified rules in a stand-up fight that went 5 x 3 minute rounds.  A disappointing match that ended in an unsatisfying but face-saving draw, things will be more conclusive and promise to be more exciting this time around.  A lot has changed since then and while both men have had their invincible auras badly dented they remain two of the sport’s most feared strikers.  Both have worked on their ground games with Silva working for submissions against Hidehiko Yoshida in their first fight and Cro Cop’s active ground defence enabling him to survive Fedor Emelianenko’s ferocious ground n’ pound assault long enough to at least hear the final bell in their August 2005 dream fight.  While a stand-up war seems the obvious thing to happen here, recent battles between excellent grapplers have turned into kickboxing matches so the reverse may be true.  Silva, whose BJJ black belt credentials have been questioned, may try and test Cro Cop’s skills on the mat.  The Croatian is unlikely to do more than defend on the ground though since even in fights where he actually has better mat skills (OK, only the Mark Hunt fight last New Year’s Eve actually matches that description) he neglects to even try them out.  Silva is certainly quicker on the mat and much better off his back with that triangle attempt on Yoshida and a near-armbar in his latest fight with Kazuyuki Fujita springing to mind.

Despite all that, everyone wants these two to stand and trade.  Cro Cop is a little bigger, though he’s still a small heavyweight and is a far more refined striker.  Silva is capable of patience but even when he doesn’t charge his opponents like an outraged, sexually frustrated bull, his wide right and left hooks leave him open for counters.  He’s much more active with knees and has an excellent Muay Thai clinch.  Just look at his second with over Quinton Jackson for evidence of just how devastating he can be from that position.  Cro Cop relies far more on left hooks and uppercuts, along with his trademark high kicks and some devastating low kicks.  He also has far better defensive technique and much more experience in success in kickboxing.  Despite that he still gets caught surprisingly often, with Hunt unleashing some real punishment and of course, Kevin Randleman scoring that unforgettable knockout in April 2004.  Both men have serious power, though Cro Cop tends to score knockouts with just one or two shots while Silva finishes people with an accumulation of punches and then murderous stomps and soccer kicks.  If anyone is going to actually score a knockout or a TKO in this fight, its probably Cro Cop.

Croatia’s favourite politician/actor/violence dispensing machine has had a brutally easy tournament so far.  In the first round he decimated the tournament’s smallest entrant Ikuhisa Minowa in clinically predictable fashion.  Cro Cop trapped ‘the Punk’ in the corner, blasted him with a pair of vicious left hands and finished him with a barrage of punches on the ground for a very straightforward 70 second win.  In the second round he crippled Hidehiko Yoshida with some vicious low kicks, TKO’ing his gutsy opponent with a final kick to the left knee that left the Japanese star unable to stand up.  It was a composed but curiously flat performance from Cro Cop where he blocked Yoshida’s takedown attempts and exploited his enormous advantage in striking to great effect.

Inserted into the tournament’s second round in place of Fedor Emelianenko (still suffering with the hand he first injured sometime around October 1873) Wanderlei Silva produced his most destructive performance since the second Quinton Jackson fight as he just obliterated Kazauyuki Fujita.  Silva almost finished things early with an armbar from the bottom but the actual ending of the fight was uncomfortable to watch as referee Yuji Shimada stood by and allowed Fujita to take a serious beating until some merciful soul outside the ring finally rang the bell, ending the slaughter.  That win proved he can compete with Pride’s heavyweights.  Few should have doubted him after the went the distance with the much larger Mark Hunt on New Year’s Eve 2004 and arguably did just enough to earn the decision.  The judges gave it to Hunt but Silva was more than competitive on his feet against a former K-1 champion who outweighed him by 80 pounds.  Even more impressively Silva somehow survived the Samoan Atomic Butt Drop and its unlikely Cro Cop will throw anything quite so violently unique at him.

Seriously though, Cro Cop has battled injuries, his own ridiculous schedule of training, fighting, political work, acting and even playing a strange game called soccer over the last few years and at times has looked flat and worn.  His stamina seemed to flag in his decision win over Josh Barnett last October and he tired very quickly in his loss to Hunt.  Silva is rarely less than devastating.  Only Ricardo Arona has truly subdued and controlled him and Cro Cop simply doesn’t have anything like Arona’s suffocating ground control based style of fighting.  A few well-timed jabs and low or mid-kicks may slow Silva down for a while but the fearsome Brazilian will recover and keep pressing forward.  After his frustrating loss to Arona in last year’s Middleweight Grand Prix Silva will probably be more willing to go all-out just to make sure he actually makes it to the final and deal with the consequences then.  Cro Cop may try and save a little energy in reserve and be the more passive of the two fighters.  That could be a critical mistake.  Cro Cop is unlikely to fold under Silva’s unrelenting pressure but once ‘the Axe Murderer’ has the advantage he will just keep on pressing until either he finishes Cro Cop or time runs out.  Considering neither Hunt or Emelianenko could finish in 20 minutes, I doubt Silva can do it in just 15 but with Cro Cop’s questionable stamina, Silva’s unrelenting pressure and superior groundwork, the Brazilian can book a place in the finals with a decision win.

PREDICTION: Silva by decision.

Open Weight Grand Prix Semi Final: Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera vs. Josh Barnett

He may be an oddball, puroresu obsessed anime geek but Barnett (18-3) is a very, very good fighter.  One of the best heavyweight showmen in the business he’s been both impressive and entertaining in this tournament.  He outlasted an exhausted Aleksander Emelianenko in the first round and breezed past Mark Hunt in the second.  Of the four remaining participants, Barnett has had by far the most difficult opposition and has looked great in both fights.  He stood with Emelianenko for the entire first round and had some real success in their busy exchanges.  Both men landed heavy shots but Emelianenko tired quickly and when Barnett finally took him down early in the second round he quickly slapped on the decisive Kimura.  He finished Hunt with the same move, taking him down fast and applying the submission for a quick, dominant win.

Brazilian Top Team standout and former Pride Heavyweight Champion Noguiera (28-3-1) had one of the easiest first rounds imaginable.  Matched up with the monstrous and unskilled Zuluzhino, Noguiera was, to put it charitably, about a million times better than his enormous opponent.  Offering resistance that could charitably be described as feeble, Zuluzhino was taken down, lay on his back and practically waved his arm in the air, inviting Noguiera to take an armbar.  Either Zuluzhino is completely ignorant of the most basic defences against one of the most common submission moves in the sport or he was looking for an easy way out.  Ever the professional, Noguiera put his opponent out of his misery with a textbook armbar 2:17 into the match.  Noguiera’s second round was more difficult as he found himself in the rare situation of being in there with a more accomplished BJJ artist in Fabricio Werdum.  Noguiera floored Werdum twice in the first round and used his precise boxing to control the match and earn the decision win.

Nogueira’s BJJ is perfectly adapted to fighting under MMA rules and he backs it up with some precision boxing honed by training team with the Cuban amateur boxing squad.  Barnett’s grappling style is more a mixture of freestyle wrestling, some BJJ and even some moves taken from catch and professional wrestling.  His striking is far better than it was when he stood and traded with Pedro Rizzo at UFC 30 in 2001.  Even then his high pressure approach that features plenty of clinch, charging and the odd ‘Superman’ punch was good enough that he was competitive with the ponderous but dangerous Muay Thai stylist.  Barnett has a very good chin too and took some hefty shots from Mirko Cro Cop and stayed upright in their rematch.  Aleksander Emelianenko landed some good ones too but Barnett took them and fired straight back.  The biggest man left in the tournament, Barnett has suffered from stamina trouble in the past – mainly as a result of his own lack of commitment to training – but seems to have sorted that out now.  He was in great shape for the Emelianenko fight (the match with Hunt was too short to judge) and will need to be in the best possible condition to get past Noguiera, never mind beat another opponent in the final.

This is a tricky one to predict.  Noguiera is the more technically proficient fighter.  His striking is neater, his groundwork more crisp.  But Barnett is bigger, a very good wrestler and has looked excellent of late.  Both are very good strategists and both have very good chins, though ‘Minotauro’ also has the edge in that department, having come back to win after taking some horrific punishment in his 2003 fight with Mirko Cro Cop.  So many factors point to Noguiera but I have a feeling Barnett will manhandle him.  He’s so difficult to control and while messy and awkward looking at times knows how to use his size and strength to great effect.  He’s looked excellent in his last 3 fights (the other being his extremely one-sided win over Kazuhiro Nakamura) and this is his big opportunity to prove his many critics wrong.  Look for him to do just that.  I’d expect much of the fight to take place on the ground with Noguiera going for submissions but being foiled by Barnett’s excellent submission defence and suffering some real damage from his punches and hammerfists.  It will be a close fight but one that Barnett can win.

PREDICTION: Barnett by decision.

Open Weight Grand Prix Final

As with any tournament where entrants compete more than once on a single evening, much depends on how long and how gruelling the first fight was.  Since I expect both Silva and Barnett to have gone the distance in the semi-final it could come down to how much and what type of punishment they take.  Silva is likely to go in having taken some hefty punches and kicks from Mirko Cro Cop while Barnett and Noguiera are more likely to have an exhausting ground battle.  That could take a major toll on Barnett’s often questionable stamina but if Silva goes into the final with any significant facial damage Barnett will obviously try and bash him up a bit more.  Assuming Silva and Barnett both progress to the final the way they match up should favour the significantly bigger American.  Barnett is effective at closing the distance and taking his opponent down.  He tends to take some shots on the way in but can withstand it long enough to secure the takedown.  If he gets Silva down without being punched, kneed or kicked into oblivion he can use his greater skill, strength and sheer mass to hold Silva down, start pounding away with punches and hammerfists and grind out a decision win or open enough of a cut to end the fight.  Either way, Barnett should be a step closer to his long held goal of a showdown with Pride heavyweight champion Fedor Emelianenko.

PREDICTION: Barnett by decision.

Alternate Fight: Sergei Kharitonov vs. Aleksander Emelianenko

While I’m not a fan of giving beaten fighters a possible backdoor into a tournament final, this match is a fascinating one.  Former training partners Emelianenko (8-2) and Kharitonov (13-2) are both very dangerous heavyweights, both know each other well and both have picked up some impressive wins in Pride.  Both are also coming off losses.  Emelianenko gassed out yet again in his tournament match with Josh Barnett in May and lost by submission for the first time in his career.  An energetically paced fight had the enormous Russian gasping for air and leaning on the ropes for support as the first round ended.  He was in no condition to do much of anything in the second round and Barnett quickly took him down and locked on a Kimura.  Kharitonov was brutalised by Alistair Overeem back in February.  The tall Dutchman took him down quickly and went to work on the ground, forcing the stoppage with some vicious knees to the face halfway through the first round.

Fights between former training partners always have that added intrigue and this is no exception.  Both know each other very well so the key to winning this fight is to be so overwhelmingly good at playing to their existing strengths or come up with something totally new and unexpected.  Perhaps Emelianenko will charge forward at the opening bell and hit Kharitonov with a flying triangle attempt.  Well, perhaps not.  Neither man has shown a huge amount of variety in the way they fight.  Both favour striking but back that up with some quality submission skills, mostly on the defensive.  Much of Emelianenko’s work looks sloppy though, both standing and on the ground.  His swinging punches leave him open to counters and he’s made some pretty basic mistakes on the mat in previous fights, despite his impressive Sambo credentials.  Pawel Nastula was painfully close to armbarring him last New Year’s Eve and his low slung hands gave Mirko Cro Cop the perfect opportunity to flatten him with a left high kick in their August 2004 fight.  He’s certainly an effective fighter, just a very untidy one.  Kharitonov is more experienced and much more technically adept but he’s giving up a few inches in height, some 30-40 pounds in weight and is coming off that shoulder injury.  He also doesn’t have the advantage of training every day with the greatest heavyweight fighter in MMA history, Fedor Emelianenko, any longer.  Both Emelianenko brothers have spent more and more time in Holland over the past couple of years, working on their striking but its unlikely the walking advert for tattoo removal procedures will have much success standing with Kharitonov.

A boxing silver medallist in the 2004 Asian Games, Kharitonov earned a shot at that year’s Olympics, representing former Tajikistan (the former Soviet republics often have ethnic Russians on their teams) but passed on the chance to instead fight in the 2004 Heavyweight Grand Prix.  A murderous body puncher (and Emelianenko’s body is a hefty target), Kharitonov destroyed Murilo ‘Ninja’ Rua in that tournament before going the distance with Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera in the semi-finals.  More than competitive on his feet with the Brazilian, he also escaped several of Minotauro’s submission attempts before dropping the decision in an excellent fight.  A precise boxer with power in both hands, a healthy Kharitonov should beat Emelianenko, particularly with his far superior conditioning.  But his shoulder may not be too healthy.  He didn’t look good at all in his October 2005 fight with Fabricio Werdum, despite winning by split decision and his shoulder seemed to be troubling him in that fight.  Against Overeem it was hurt badly enough that what should have been a great, competitive fight instead ended up with Kharitonov just being taken down and destroyed on the ground.  The simple fact he offered so little resistance suggests he was beaten just as much by the injury as by the Dutchman.  That fight was just over 6 months ago and if he isn’t yet 100% then the bigger man may simply bulldoze him to defeat.  But lets assume he’s healthy.  Emelianenko is a fast starter, despite looking half-asleep most of the time and will likely come out swinging.  Look for Kharitonov counter his shots, hurt Emelianenko with body punches, slip jabs through his leaky defence and tire him out on their feet.  A tired Emelianenko loses much of his power and he also seems to completely forget any semblance of technique.  That’s not a good combination against Kharitonov who will just batter him with punches.  Expect a war from start to finish with the end coming late in the first and Kharitonov standing victorious.

PREDICTION: Sergei Kharitonov by TKO late in the first.

Evangelista ‘Cyborg’ Santos vs. Yosuke Nishijima

Putting an 0-2 fighter in with the experienced, though utterly lacking in stamina and seemingly unaware of the very idea of submission skills, ‘Cyborg’ (14-9) would normally be a very bad idea.  However, former professional boxer Nishijima does have some advantages that should help him pick up his first win under MMA rules.  First of all, he has excellent stamina.  Second, he can withstand sustained, brutal punishment.  Third, he has some very good boxing skills.  Fourth, he’s the bigger man.  Finally, and very importantly, Santos just isn’t that good.  The excessively tattooed Brazilian with the painted fingernails and looks of a mass murderer is very dangerous for the first minute or so and remains dangerous throughout the fight to anyone who can’t avoid his wild, powerful swings but there’s really no secret to beating him.  Tire him out, take him down and stop him with punches or tap him out.  Nishijima is unlikely to try submissions even against a fighter so averse to submissions that his heel hook attempt on Melvin Manhoef during their epic brawl at Cage Rage 15 in February was greeted with genuine amazement from anyone who had watched a few of his fights.  But Nishijima can use his infinitely slicker striking skills to stay on the defensive, stay out of trouble and let Santos tire himself out.  Santos is perfectly capable of pacing himself and did so in his wins over Michal Materla and Kassim Annan but generally chooses not to.  His strategy (if that’s not too grand a word) is to overwhelm his opponent with punches and smash them into the ground.  It works up to a point and that’s exactly what he’s done to some decent fighters but has some glaringly obvious limitations at the higher level.  Kazuhiro Nakamura and Yuki Kondo have both beaten him very convincingly in the last couple of years and so has Melvin Manhoef, despite adopting a similar bone-headed gameplan as the Brazilian.  Look for Nishijima to be smarter than Manhoef and just outbox Cyborg and finish him off when he’s exhausted.

PREDICTION: Nishijima by KO late in the first.

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Yoshihiro Nakao

The fact these two and Nishijima are the only Japanese fighters on this, one of Pride’s biggest shows of the year, says a lot about just how thin their native roster is above the Welterweight division.  With Kazushi Sakuraba gone, Hidehiko Yoshida seemingly in decline with age and injuries and apparently yet bafflingly needed for the big Las Vegas debut show, Kazuyuki Fujita hardly reliable and Naoya Ogawa well out of their realistic price range these days, things look pretty grim.  Its hard to imagine any other time in recent Pride history when the signing of the very capable but unexceptional Nakao (5-0) would be trumpeted as a major acquisition.  DSE have been trying to push Yoshida protégé Nakamura (9-5) as a genuine and while he’s a very good fighter he may never really break through to that top level.  Only Antonio Rogerio Noguiera (twice), Dan Henderson (a shoulder injury), Wanderlei Silva and Josh Barnett have actually beaten him and at times Nakamura has looked great since debuting 3 and a half years ago.  Nakao is most famous for the most talked about man-on-man kiss in MMA history in his New Year’s Eve 2005 No Contest with Heath ‘I’m not gay’ Herring.  Aside from that ridiculous incident and his continued exploitation of it (blowing kisses and even being nicknamed ‘Kiss’) Nakao is a very good wrestler with an active ground n’ pound assault and some submission skills.  The 34-year-old made a winning Pride debut in July when he just took down and bashed the inexperienced Eun Su Lee but will find Nakamura a very different opponent.  Aside from decision wins over a sluggish Wesley ‘Cabbage’ Correira and the broken down remains of Don Frye, Nakao has achieved little of note while Nakamura has beaten Yuki Kondo, Igor Vovchanchyn and Kevin Randleman.  True, plenty of people were upset about the judge’s verdict in some of those decision wins but generally Nakamura just outworked his opponents and even if he didn’t quite deserve the win (I felt he did, even against Kondo) those fights were close.  Nakao may be the better wrestler but Nakamura has adapted his Judo skills well to MMA and while not the best finisher, is a very talented fighter.  Nakao is the bigger, stronger man but Nakamura is younger, has real stamina and has been far more active.  He’s a better all-round fighter than Nakao and should win this one, even if he has to go the distance yet again to do it.

PREDICTION: Nakamura by decision.

Ricardo Arona vs. Alistair Overeem

While this is certainly a big name fight there’s always the chance, as with anything involving Arona (12-4), that it will descend into a boring display of suffocating ground control and just enough action to avoid too many restarts but not enough to truly satisfy as a spectator sport.  It’s also a fight he should be heavily favoured to win.  Its not just his massive edge in wrestling and submission skills.  It’s not just his great physical strength and usually impressive stamina.  It’s not even just his membership of the elite Brazilian Top Team.  All those things are factors but Overeem’s (24-8) own weaknesses will play a major role.  Long considered a fighter who simply gasses out (against Fabricio Werdum and ‘Shogun’ Rua, Antonio Rogerio Noguiera in their first fight and against Chuck Liddell in 2003) Overeem’s problems also stem from his suspect chin.  Most of the time he doesn’t just gas out gradually.  More often the problems start when he takes a hefty shot to the face.  From there he seems to lose all semblance of the dangerous, explosive fighter he begins the match as.  Such dramatic turn-arounds are a real worry for ‘the Demolition Man’ in this one.  Arona is hardly known for his striking prowess but if Fabricio Werdum landed some good shots, so can Arona.  But perhaps most worrying is the fact he entered the ring in his last fight with a neck injury serious enough he was at the hospital earlier that day and only agreed to go through with the match as the opening ceremony was going on.  His corner threw in the towel at the first sign of real trouble (a great punch and busy but inaccurate follow-up by Arona’s teammate Rogerio Noguiera) much to Overeem’s displeasure.  That was at the beginning of July and now, just over two months later, Overeem is back in the ring with Arona.  The heavily tattooed Brazilian will also be smart enough to avoid what seems to be the only submission hold Overeem knows – the guillotine choke.  Explosive and varied with his takedowns, Arona has plenty of ways of getting Overeem on his back and once there he should be able to grind out one of his trademark decisions, just as he did against Wanderlei Silva in their first fight a little over a year ago.

PREDICTION: Arona by decision.

Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Cyrille Diabate

Making a fairly quick return from the broken arm suffered when he foolishly misplaced his arm while landing on a Mark Coleman takedown in February, Rua (12-2) shouldn’t have to worry too much about anything beyond kicking and punching in this one.  6’5” Frenchman Diabate (10-5-1) is a long, lean kickboxer who will stand with Rua in what should be a fun, if very predictable fight.  Diabate has good technique but will struggle to apply it against a never-ending torrent of violence he can expect from the 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix winner.  With just the Coleman loss and a submission defeat to Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral and wins over Ricardo Arona, Alistair Overeem, Antonio Rogerio Noguiera, Quinton Jackson and Akihiro Gono, Rua has mixed with a much higher class of fighter than Diabate has.  He’s also a member of one of the sport’s elite camps and will be highly motivated to make a spectacular winning return after his bizarre loss to Coleman.  They do share a common opponent in ‘Babalu’ but while Rua gave the recent UFC title challenger a real fight, Diabate was quickly and comprehensively dismantled.  That Cage Rage 9 loss came amidst a 4-fight losing streak for the Frenchman but he’s since turned things around with 4 straight wins in DEEP and is 3-0 in 2006.  Rua may have a little trouble with Diabate’s height and reach in the opening moments but he should quickly figure that out and go on to hand out a classic Chute Boxe pasting.

PREDICTION: Rua by TKO midway through the first.

Ricardo Morais vs. Lee Tae Hyun

Good old DSE.  What this show and every other MMA event really needs is a showdown between two enormous giants.  One of them middle-aged and clumsily robotic with over a decade of fighting experience and the other a Korean newcomer and former Ssirum superstar.  Yes Morais (9-4-1) and Lee should put on quite the ham-fisted, oversized spectacle.  A former RINGS fighter with an execrable track record in Pride, Morais looked frightening back in 1995 when he won a 32 man bare-knuckled, no holds barred fighting tournament in Moscow.  Using his immense size and strength he defeated 5 men in one day, 4 of them in under two minutes apiece.  Mikhail Illoukhine stretched the fight out for almost ten minutes but Morais still won and looked like an absolute monster.  Unfortunately, his total lack of stamina, his stiff, awkward movements and general lack of skill were exposed later on.  His Pride debut against Mark Coleman in 1999 saw him drop a decision in a phenomenally boring match and his most recent outing saw him KO’ed in just 15 seconds.  The sight of him falling flat on his face after an Aleksander Emelianenko punch is a memorable one and but he really should win this one.  The aged Morais (and people of his size do not age well at all) has fought just 3 times this century, going 1-2 but has a massive edge in general fighting experience and particularly in submissions and striking.  Lee is 8 years younger and is a huge, in-shape man with surprising speed and some good takedowns.  Him winning would be a massive upset even though Morais just isn’t that good a fighter.  Look for Lee to try those Ssirum grappling skills but get trapped with a submission in a very messy fight.

PREDICTION: Morais by submission late in the first.

Predictions Re-cap:

Wanderlei Silva DEC2 Mirko Cro Cop
Josh Barnett DEC2 Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera
Josh Barnett DEC2 Wanderlei Silva
Sergei Kharitonov TKO1 Aleksander Emelianenko
Yosuke Nishijima KO1 Evangelista ‘Cyborg’ Santos
Kazuhiro Nakamura DEC3 Yoshihiro Nakao
Ricardo Arona DEC3 Alistair Overeem
Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua TKO1 Cyrille Diabate
Ricardo Morais SUB1 Lee Tae Hyun