With the dismal and miniscule Hard Rock Café thankfully behind them, the latest Spike TV special will be shown live from the Fertitta brothers' own Red Rock Casino and Spa Resort outside Las Vegas.  Hopefully this means the end of live specials that are supposed to promote the hottest sport in North America but appear to be held in somebody’s dingy neighbourhood bar.  There’s also a name change with the word ‘Ultimate’ being dropped.  The final two UFNs weren’t exactly major successes.  UFN4 was almost two hours of unremitting dullness with 4 fights that went the distance and only the fight between Joe Stevenson and Josh Neer and the controversial scoring of Bonnar-Jardine offering much of interest.  UFN5 was far better, featuring the stunning 49-second UFC debut of Anderson Silva along with a gripping scrap between Luke Cummo and Jonathan Goulet.  It was also the lowest rated live show on Spike TV yet, sandwiched in-between the TUF3 Finale and the much-hyped UFC 61.  The last few minutes of the Cummo fight actually drew an immense audience but that was down to all the vampire and comic book geeks tuning in to see the premiere of the Blade TV series the UFC broadcast team were forced to shill endlessly for.

Fight Night should do better in the ratings and with a very solid card should be well worth putting up with the incessant ad breaks.  The main event should decide the next challenger for the welterweight title as Diego Sanchez meets Karo Parisyan in a battle between two of the sport’s most talented and energetic younger grapplers.  The televised portion of the show is also scheduled to include Chris Leben’s return from the Silva demolition, Yuki Sasaki’s UFC debut against Dean Lister and Goulet facing one of UFC’s elite wrestlers, Josh Koscheck.

Line-up

Diego Sanchez vs. Karo Parisyan
Chris Leben vs. Jorge Santiago
Dean Lister vs. Yuki Sasaki
Josh Koscheck vs. Jonathan Goulet
Kristof Midoux vs. Jake O’ Brien
Pat Healy vs. Anthony Torres
Jason Von Flue vs. Joe Riggs
Sam Morgan vs. Forrest Petz
Crafton Wallace vs. Martin Kampmann

August 17th
Nevada

Diego Sanchez vs. Karo Parisyan

This could be the most anticipated ‘fight-that-looks-certain-to-go-the-distance’ in a long, long time.  Neither TUF1 contract winner Sanchez (15-0) or Armenian-American Judo stylist Parisyan (15-3) are the sport’s best finishers but both are just utterly relentless attackers for every second of their matches.  With them sharing that aggressive mentality and fighting style and the prize dangled in front of them here, expect a great main event.  The winner looks to be first in line for a Welterweight title shot at whoever triumphs in September’s Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre rematch.  For Sanchez this is an opportunity to build on his excellent TUF3 Finale win over Nick Diaz and debatable UFC 60 victory over John Alessio and fast-track himself into a title shot.  It gives Parisyan a chance to get back into the title picture after leg injuries denied him a UFC 56 shot at Hughes.  Joe Riggs stepped in at short notice and after his failure to make weight turned the match into a non-title affair, he promptly went out there to be predictably humbled and finished inside a round.  Parisyan could only sit and watch that destruction, the non-title Hughes and Gracie mega-event and Georges St. Pierre’s leap-frogging ahead of him with his close but thoroughly deserved win over BJ Penn.  It must have been a frustrating few months for the hugely talented, Gene LeBell trained Parisyan.  Look for him to try and take all that frustration and aggression out on Sanchez.

‘The Heat’ earned his originally scheduled title shot with a string of impressive showings while reeling off a 4-fight winning streak.  He dominated an aged Shonie Carter, scored a close decision win over Nick Diaz, out pointed Chris Lytle and repeated the trick against Matt Serra.  He’s fought once since returning from those leg injuries, dishing out a first round hammering to Nick Thompson at UFC 59.  An all-action fighter with a superb Judo background, some unique takedowns and aggressive but sloppy striking, Parisyan also has excellent stamina.  He’s fully capable of forcing the action for the full three rounds.  He may have finished just 2 of his last 8 wins inside the distance (Thompson and a great rolling Kimura on Dave Strasser at UFC 44) but the 23-year-old is always worth watching.  As is Sanchez.

Most expected the talented but ultimately frustrating Nick Diaz to expose Sanchez as a one-dimensional fighter out of his depth against ‘real’ competition.  That didn’t happen.  Instead Sanchez outworked and outwrestled the arrogant Cesar Gracie student in one of the best fights of 2005.  Sanchez was all over Diaz from the very beginning – relentlessly hounding and just physically bullying his opponent in a fascinating but never truly competitive fight.  ‘The Nightmare’ tried a similar strategy against Alessio.  Unfortunately for Sanchez, the cagey veteran knew exactly what was coming and continually stuffed Sanchez’ takedown attempts, blocking six of them in the first round.  Diaz hadn’t made Sanchez look overrated and one-dimensional but Alessio did.  The second round saw Sanchez finally score a takedown but fail with some more and also take a hard shot from Alessio that opened up the first cut of his UFC career.  An extraordinary third round saved the fight from disaster as Sanchez clung to Alessio’s back like a Koala to the last eucalyptus tree on Earth for most of the final session.  Throwing punches and constantly looking for submissions even while Alessio refused to go down and even walked across to his own corner with Sanchez in that position, the TUF1 winner took a close round.  However, his failures earlier in the fight meant he was lucky to walk away with the decision.  Alessio is a good fighter but he’s not UFC title calibre.  Parisyan is, and this could be a very, very difficult fight for Sanchez.

Sanchez has gone 4-0 in official UFC fights starting with a predictable pummelling of an outweighed, overmatched Kenny Florian and looked excellent in beating veteran striker Brian Gassaway in a fight carefully booked to make Sanchez look good.  True he was excellent against Diaz but the Alessio fight raised more new questions than it answered.  Despite his improved striking, Sanchez remains heavily reliant on takedowns and a skilled ground fighter can avoid his submissions.  He seemed to tire against Alessio too and Parisyan may just have the right mixture of takedown and submission defence and cardio to hand Sanchez his first professional loss.  Look for a close fight featuring constant action where Parisyan uses his grappling skill to outclass Sanchez and also become the first fighter to really force Sanchez onto the defensive.  His relentless pressure should eventually get to Sanchez and earn him the verdict.

PREDICTION: Parisyan by decision.

Chris Leben vs. Jorge Santiago

Leben (15-2) makes a quick return after his complete humiliation at the fists and knee of Anderson Silva at UFN5 less than two months ago.  His opponent Santiago (11-5) fought on the same show but won.  The Silva fight cruelly exposed Leben’s title aspirations as a pipe dream, not to mention the idiotic pre-fight interview which made Leben look like a geographically inept fantasist.  Leben desperately needs a win in this one to reclaim some respect and start the rebuilding process.  Santiago impressed on the non-televised part of the UFN5 show, KOing Justin Levens with a knee to the face 2:13 into the first round.  That was the American Top Team fighter’s fourth stoppage win in a row, with three of them in the first round.  A tough, capable fighter, Santiago lasted the distance in losses to Diego Sanchez and Joey Villasenor and also dropped a decision to the talented Jordan Radev in Holland.  He hasn’t lost by stoppage since 2003 where he went down twice, one of them in just 21 seconds.  This doesn’t necessarily mean he has a dodgy chin, but if there are weaknesses there, Leben will test them.

Anderson snapped Leben’s 5-fight winning streak but wasn’t the first to expose holes in the former Team Quest brawler’s game.  Leben looked terrible against a stubborn but outclassed Luigi Fioravanti at UFN4, failing to finish, or even come close to finishing a fight he was dominating against a much smaller opponent.  Patrick Cote had pushed Leben to a close decision in their UFN1 match and showed that for all the talk of Leben’s stand-up skills, he’s a flat-footed, arm-swinging brawler who relies on his good but overrated chin to see him through difficult moments.  Leben does have power (the quick win over Jorge Rivera) and underrated submissions (the armbar on Edwin Dewees) though.  His inability to finish Fioravanti doesn’t bode well for his chances of stopping his skilled teammate Santiago.  Most likely the result will be the same – Leben in control throughout the fight, handing some slow punishment on the mat but never finding the openings or inspiration to end the fight inside the distance.

PREDICTION: Leben by decision.

Dean Lister vs. Yuki Sasaki

Long considered one of the most unfairly ignored and most gifted submission artists in North American MMA, Lister (8-4) finally got his big break with a Pride: Bushido 4 booking a little over two years ago.  Unfortunately he blew it, putting on a truly atrocious fight with an equally reluctant Amar Suloev.  He followed that with a quick submission win over Akira Shoji but ran into Ricardo Arona in a fight where Lister repeatedly looked for submissions but was again too tentative at times and dropped a unanimous decision.  Drafted in by Tito Ortiz as an assistant coach for TUF3, Lister also made a dominant Zuffa debut at UFC 60 – quickly taking down Alessio Sakara, looking for openings on the mat and catching Sakara with a slick triangle choke for an utterly one-sided first round win.  One worrying note for Lister is the several time ADCC veteran was breathing heavily after just 2:20 of fighting and Team Grabaka based Pancrase veteran Sasaki (20-12-1) should give him more trouble on the mat than Italian boxer Sakara could.

A fighter since 1998, Sasaki started off with Shooto, compiling a 6-3 record before moving on to Pancrase where he’s spent most of his career.  Sasaki has faced a real variety of opponents and has fought three times in 2006 – all of them in the UK.  A competitor in the controversial WCFC tournament in March, exploiting Rodney Faverus’ deficiencies on the mat with a first round armbar before going on to lose by anaconda choke to eventual tournament winner Leonardo Lucio Nascimento in the semi-final.  In his last fight Sasaki armbarred the capable Paul Taylor in May.  The call-up to UFC is something of a surprise though and its clear Sasaki is here as a respectable opponent for Lister to beat.  The 29-year-old has struggled against real grappling artists and Lister does have a BJJ black belt.  Sasaki has lost to Nascimento, Gustavo Machado, Fabio Leopoldo, David Terrell, Ricardo Almeida and Rodrigo Gracie over the last four years.  Lister, the naturally bigger man with those BJJ skills and more experience inside a cage, should add his name to that list.  Sasaki has tapped out just 3 times but Lister has the ability to trap and submit him, as long as his stamina holds up.

PREDICTION: Lister by submission late in the second

Josh Koscheck vs. Jonathan Goulet

Both Koscheck (6-1) and Goulet (16-6) picked up wins at UFN5 and are back less than two months later for an intriguing match that opens up the Spike TV live special.  Goulet survived his almost customary wobbly moment or two.  First he was rocked with a punch early in the second round, then was seemingly caught with a Luke Cummo guillotine before surviving a last-ditch rear naked choke attempt in the dying seconds.  Aside from those brief incidents Goulet used his incessant work on the ground and fantastic cardio to control and physically dominate the World’s Most Dangerous Geek for most of their enthralling three rounds.  Koscheck outworked and outwrestled far more experienced veteran Dave Menne for a decision win of his own.  Dangerous but chinny, Goulet has twice been KO’ed in 12 seconds or less, most recently by Duane Ludwig at UF3.  But the teammate of Georges St. Pierre is an explosive fighter himself, recording three wins inside 30 seconds and holds wins over Shonie Carter, Jay Hieron, Tony Fryklund and John Alessio.

28-year-old AKA fighter Koscheck still relies heavily on his excellent wrestling base but has also picked up a pair of UFC submission wins, beating Pete Spratt (in truly dominating fashion) and Ansar Chalangov with rear naked chokes.  A 4-time NCAA Division I All-American who went 42-0 in 2001, Koscheck is one of the most accomplished college wrestlers in UFC history.  Still learning, Koscheck only started fighting in January 2004 and even in his only loss, at UFN2 he dominated some 14 minutes of the match with Drew Fickett before diving straight into a well-timed knee and being caught with a choke.  His chin has rarely been tested and Koscheck will want to avoid standing and striking with the fast-handed, spiteful punching Canadian.  He should be able to take Goulet down fairly easily but will have trouble keeping him on the mat for long.  Energetic off his back, Goulet will struggle relentlessly to escape.  The fight should really come down to how long Koscheck can keep Goulet subdued and how he copes with Goulet’s cardio.  Koscheck lacks the finishing skills to stop or submit Goulet but he should control him for long enough to pick up an efficient, if one-dimensional decision win.

PREDICTION: Koscheck by decision.

Kristof Midoux vs. Jake O’ Brien

Canadian based Frenchman ‘Hurricane’ Midoux (5-5) was originally set for his UFC debut as part of the USA vs. Canada UFC 58 show.  A training injury forced him to pull out but now recovered, the hefty Karate black belt with a solid ground game and wild striking style will fight for the first time in 9 months against the undefeated ‘Irish’ Jake O’ Brien (4-0).  Midoux is a decent fighter but has generally lost when faced with real opposition.  Enormous former NCAA wrestling champion and current WWE flop-in-waiting Sylvester Terkay forced a neck crank submission out of Midoux in 2004 and Brazilian prospect Antonie Jaoude, Fabricio Werdum, Jeremy Horn and Travis Fulton have all beaten him either with strikes or submissions.  A 3-time state high school wrestling champion, 21-year-old O’ Brien spent two years on Purdue’s highly respected college wrestling team.  The Indianapolis based O’ Brien has strong takedowns, aggressive ground n’ pound and the physical tools to put Midoux on the defensive early.  O’ Brien has finished all his opponents in the first round since debuting in January this year (such is the state of the UFC heavyweight division that raw novices are getting shots) and his breakthrough fight was his second – a 14-second KO of Team Quest fighter Jay White in March.  There’s still a major question mark against his stamina and Midoux is far more experienced but O’ Brien may just overwhelm the older man early and pick up the win.  He still has a lot to learn though.

PREDICTION: O’ Brien by TKO midway through the first.

Pat Healy vs. Anthony Torres

‘Bam Bam’ Healy (15-9) is a busy fighter.  Already 4-1 in 2006 and with a 5-5 record in 2005, he’s faced more and much better opposition than his opponent Torres (3-0).  Hawaiian prison officer Torres failed to impress as a contestant on TUF2, losing by unanimous decision to Luke Cummo during the series.  An injury forced him out of January’s UFN3, this will be his ‘official’ UFC debut.  He did fight in May, picking up a first round TKO win against mediocre opponent Jerry Hackney in Hawaii.  Torres is just nothing special and Healy has all the advantages here.  2006 has seen Healy submit the extremely dangerous Carlos Condit and use the same rear naked choke to take out Brandon Melendez.  Healy has also tapped out two of Britain’s most explosive strikers – Paul Daley and Dan Hardy.  A good wrestler with submission skills, Healy has been in with and lost to Carlo Prater, Jay Hieron, Chris Lytle (a split decision), Dustin Denes and Dave Strasser.  Torres has a decent submission defence and may be able to block Healy’s choke attempts but that should leave him open for a pasting on the ground.  Look for Healy to bash his way to a winning UFC debut.

PREDICTION: Healy by TKO late in the second.

Joe Riggs vs. Jason Von Flue

There are some fighters who almost seem guaranteed UFC spots despite continued failures while others seem to be unfairly tossed on the scrapheap after losing a single fight.  But this can only go on so long, as Phil Baroni, Robbie Lawler and Nick Diaz discovered and Riggs (24-8) is in danger of realising if he loses this one.  Luckily for him, Von Flue (11-5-1), coming off an exciting decision loss to Luke Cummo in a stand-up war at UFN4, looks almost tailor made for one of Riggs’ straightforward bashings.  A dangerous, if crude kickboxer with surprising submission skills, Von Flue lacks takedown defence and cuts easily.  That’s a very worrying combination against a heavy-handed, no-nonsense ground n’ pounder like Riggs.  True, Von Flue’s submission skills mean he has a real chance of catching a fighter who walked into a Mike Swick guillotine, seemed defenceless to stop Matt Hughes’ Kimura, whined petulantly after tapping out to Ivan Salaverry’s triangle choke and was beating the life out of Alex Stiebling before succumbing to his triangle in a very memorable 2004 fight.  But the likelihood is that Riggs will do enough damage to Von Flue’s cut-prone face with the kind of brutal ground n’ pound he used on Chris Lytle, Joe Doerksen and Kendall Grove early enough to force the stoppage before Von Flue can exploit his lack of submission awareness and defence.

PREDICTION: Riggs by TKO late in the first.

Sam Morgan vs. Forrest Petz

Cage Warriors/FightFest Welterweight champion Petz (11-2) makes his UFC debut coming off a much-disputed but apparently close title win unification over Dan Hardy in Ohio earlier this year.  Petz certainly showed his stamina over five very active rounds and did floor Hardy numerous times, a fact that most likely swung the decision his way.  However, Hardy punished Petz with a variety of strikes and badly broke his nose.  TUF2 contestant Morgan (18-7) has yet to win any kind of UFC fight.  Luke Cummo KOed him with a knee in a gripping fight during the series and then lasted just 21 seconds at the TUF2 Finale when Josh Burkman slammed him hard to the mat for the KO.  Morgan, who holds wins over Duane Ludwig and Aaron Riley, has gone 2-0 since the Burkman loss, even tapping out the mighty Shannon Ritch (no sniggering at the back!) in March.  A good striker, Morgan may struggle with Petz’ solid wrestling and counterpunching style.  Petz has power but tends to lack aggression.  He has a very good chin and the only man to beat him inside the distance was Josh Neer with a triangle choke.  An aggressive, motivated Morgan should be able to put him on the defensive straight away and land enough strikes to prompt the referee’s intervention.

PREDICTION: Morgan by TKO late in the first.

Crafton Wallace vs. Martin Kampmann

34-year-old Muay Thai fighter Wallace (9-1-1) has been a professional MMA fighter for just over 3 years.  Reliant on his fast, aggressive and technically sound Muay Thai skills, Wallace was in devastating form on the undercard of the huge San Jose Strikeforce show in March.  He punished Ray Routh for most of the first round before sparking him out with a knee 35 seconds into the second.  A regular on the Florida scene, Wallace is vicious with knees but his ground game remains very suspect.  Cage Warriors Middleweight champion Kampmann (12-2) may be the UFC’s first Danish competitor and is one of Europe’s best young fighters at any weight.  An undersized middleweight, Kampmann will likely be giving up some size against his powerfully built opponent.  But Kampmann, 10 years younger, has looked excellent over the year or so.  He knocked out KOTC regular Brendan Seguin with an eye-catching high kick KO last June, hammered Matt Ewin three weeks later and simply outclassed, battered and tapped out tough Frenchman Damien Riccio in November.  ‘Hitman’ Kampmann made his US debut last month, overwhelming Mexico’s Edwin Aguilar with punches in less than 3 minutes in the opening match of the WFA: King of Streets event.  With a boxing and Muay Thai background of his own, Kampmann is a dangerous striker too and he should be able to stand with the powerful Wallace at least long enough to make his youth, energy, stamina and better-rounded arsenal really count.  Look for Kampmann to take advantage of the first opening he gets on the ground and end the fight with a submission.

PREDICTION: Kampmann by submission midway through the second.

Predictions Re-cap

Karo Parisyan DEC3 Diego Sanchez
Chris Leben DEC3 Jorge Santiago
Dean Lister SUB2 Yuki Sasaki
Josh Koscheck DEC3 Jonathan Goulet
Jake O’ Brien TKO1 Kristof Midoux
Pat Healy TKO2 Anthony Torres
Joe Riggs TKO1 Jason Von Flue
Sam Morgan TKO1 Forrest Petz
Martin Kampmann SUB2 Crafton Wallace