Without Yamamoto and Sudo this show certainly won’t draw the same kind of media attention Hero’s are used to but Kazushi Sakuraba’s involvement in the other Grand Prix should arouse plenty of interest.  The 85KG tournament features his Hero’s debut, Carlos Newton’s return to action against the frightening Melvin Manhoef and of course, Shungo Oyama!  Without the expected star quality and some real mismatches these tournaments look to be disappointing but by the time this show is over we should at least be left with some fascinating semi-finals in both weight classes.

Line-up:

187 Pound Light Heavyweight Grand Prix, First Round:
Kazushi Sakuraba vs. Kestutis Smirnovas
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Kin Taiei
Shungo Oyama vs. Rodrigo Gracie
Melvin Manhoef vs. Carlos Newton

154 Pound Middleweight Grand Prix, Second Round:
Hideo Tokoro vs. Ivan Menjivar
Gesias ‘JZ’ Calvancanti vs. Hiroyuki Takaya
Rani Yahira vs. Kazuya Yasuhiro
Kultar Gill vs. Caol Uno

Non-tournament fight:
Alexandre Franca Nogueira vs. Koutetsu Boku

August 5th
Ariake Colosseum, Tokyo

Kazushi Sakuraba vs. Kestutis Smirnovas

The greatest, most popular and most innovative fighter in Japanese MMA history really should have retired in 2003.  At the latest.  Currently holding a professional record of 19-9-1 and with two ruined knees, Sakuraba remains valuable as a live and TV ratings draw but it’s sad to see him risking his health every time he hobbles painfully to the ring.  True, he’s very well compensated and is reputedly one of the sport’s top earners but at this stage should be training other fighters, working as a TV commentator and generally living off past glories.  Practically untouchable from 1998 to 2000, even in 2001 injuries and a past crammed with unhealthy pursuits (drinking, smoking and pro wrestling) were catching up with him.  For the past five years it’s been a period of mixed feelings for Sakuraba fans.  There have been glimpses of the old magic with the win over Quinton Jackson, much of the second fight with Wanderlei Silva and his playful toying with Nino Schembri.  Of course, the playground shenanigans of the first Schembri fight ended in disaster when the insufferably dull BJJ artist landed a fluke unintentional headbutt followed by a couple of decent knees and some of the most ridiculously girly slaps and punches ever captured on film.  Sakuraba was more cautious in winning their rematch and for portions of his fights with Antonio Rogerio Noguiera and Ricardo Arona, was very competitive.  The endings to those fights were pretty ugly though.  Nogueira was in the process of just destroying Sakuraba with kicks to the face when time mercifully ran out in their New year’s Eve 2003 fight.  Arona left Sakuraba’s face a pulped mess with some brutal knees and some blatant cheating involving fingers tearing open already inflicted cuts last June.

In one sense it’s incredible the 38-year-old Sakuraba, in his ruined, past his prime state, hasn’t taken even more ferocious beatings.  Regularly facing younger, bigger, stronger and healthier men, he’s been surprisingly competitive.  After a while even Pride seemed to belatedly realise he needed easier opposition and matched him up with the inexperienced Dong Sik Yoon and a washed up Ken Shamrock, both of whom Sakuraba finished with his fists.  Both stoppages have been criticised and there’s certainly validity to the claim the Dong fight was stopped prematurely but Sakuraba knocked Shamrock out.  His most recent victory over Ikuhisa Minowa proved Sakuraba can still win when in there with a name fighter of comparable size who isn’t a murderous striker or elite grappler.  The finish was reminiscent of his glory days and the Kimura wins over Royler and Renzo Gracie but he still seemed to lack energy and enthusiasm.  It helped that Minowa appeared reluctant to throw too many punches but Sakuraba’s basic submission skills are clearly still there, if not as explosive and innovative as they used to be.  That’s bad news for Lithuanian fighter Smirnovas (16-5).

Younger and presumably less crippled than Sakuraba, Smirnovas just lacks the skills to win this fight.  He’s won his last 3 matches and has had plenty of success in his home country but has never faced anyone close to Sakuraba’s level.  He’s beaten useful Polish fighter Grzegorz Jakubowski and at one point reeled off a 12 fight winning streak.  Unusually for a Lithuanian fighter he even seems aware that fights can actually end with submissions and has won half his matches with armbars, Kimuras and chokes.  Of course, most of the people he was beating were hardly submission experts.  Look at the 0-5 Romualds Garkulis or Grazhuydas Smailis who Smirnovas has finished twice.  But nobody Smirnovas has faced will have prepared him for even a battered legend like Sakuraba.  Look for Sakuraba to take him down early and as in the Minowa fight, worked methodically for a submission.  He should catch Smirnovas with one sometime in the second round.

PREDICTION: Sakuraba by submission midway through the second round.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Kin Taiei

Akiyama (6-1) may dress like an overexcited teenager with too many credit cards but he’s one of Japan’s best hopes for a star fighter who weighs more than 180 pounds.  The former world class Judoka with the soccer player haircut (ever-changing and each one worse than the last) will have an enormous edge in ground skills and should waltz into the next round with a comfortable submission win.  Ever since his KO loss to Jerome LeBanner in March of last year, Akiyama appears to have faced only two kinds of opponents – pure strikers with little submission skill or quality wrestlers with little MMA experience and training.  Kin Taiei falls into the first category.  And like the others, his chances of beating the ever so carefully matched Akiyama are slim.  A kickboxer who had some success in the early days of K-1 over a decade ago, Taiei is in his mid-30s and hasn’t fought since 2000.  He appears never to have fought under MMA rules and as long as Akiyama gets past his strikes, is unlikely to offer much defence against takedowns or submission attempts.  Akiyama stopped Katsuhiko Nagata with punches and even landed a spinning back kick at one point but that was against a smaller wrestler in just his second MMA fight.  Akiyama will simply stand with Taiei long enough to get inside, take him down and submit him.

PREDICTION: Akiyama by submission midway through the first.

Shungo Oyama vs. Rodrigo Gracie

There’s presumably a reason for Oyama’s (5-9) inclusion in this tournament.  I’m not entirely sure what it is, but there has to be one.  Anyway, Oyama should be on the losing end yet again as he squares off against Gracie (6-1-1).  Skilled, efficient, predictable and dull, Gracie could be the tournament’s most boring competitor.  With his last 6 fights going the distance he’s a poor finisher but adept at neutralising, controlling and outscoring his opponents.  Gracie hasn’t finished a fight since catching Daijiro Matsui with a guillotine choke in a dull Pride fight back in December 2002.  It’s a style that may be appreciated by those who like their fights slow and technical but Gracie almost seems like an excitement void at times.  Lacking even the explosive takedowns that are one of Paulo Filho’s few concessions to being an entertainer, Gracie is simply boring.  If not for his last name its doubtful he’d be involved in this tournament at all.  For all that, he’s a very good fighter and he should handle Oyama with ease.  The smaller Hidetaka Monma held him to a boring draw in his last fight in February and Gracie’s only loss came against BJ Penn in November 2004.  A reasonably competitive fight for the first two rounds, Penn made Gracie look like a beginner on the ground in the final session but Oyama just doesn’t have the necessary skills to beat him.

The Pride veteran has been obliterated by Dan Henderson, almost murdered by Mirko Cro Cop and was destroyed by former WWE wrestler Sean O’ Haire in just 31 furious seconds.  Oyama has had some pretty unlikely success with leglocks, submitting K-1 legend Peter Aerts in 30 seconds last New Year’s Eve and catching Valentijn Overeem last March with similar tricks.  But the talented Gracie should avoid any such attempts with ease.  In his last fight Oyama suffered a nasty cut and took some vicious punches and high kicks from a rampant Melvin Manhoef on his way to a first round TKO loss.  Gracie’s approach will be very different to Manhoef’s but for a change he may not even need the judges for this one.  But as with most of his fights, don’t expect much in the way of excitement.  Look for him to dominate the grappling and then exploit Oyama’s general mediocrity for a dominant win.

PREDICTION: Gracie by submission midway through the second.

Melvin Manhoef vs. Carlos Newton

With an aggressive style perfectly suited to Hero’s events, an awesome look and physique and genuine, chilling knockout power, Manhoef (13-2-1) has the potential to be a real star in Japan.  Although regularly plagued by hand injuries, the Dutch kickboxer is riding a 5-fight streak where he’s not only won, but finished his opponents with his fists.  His last outing was a stunning 17-second demolition of Ian Freeman at Cage Rage 17.  Six weeks earlier, Manhoef had impressed under regular K-1 rules in Holland scoring an easy first round over Tatsufumi Tomihara before withdrawing from the tournament with an injured left hand.  Manhoef brutalised his more experienced opponent with fast combinations and finished him with a second knockdown in just over two minutes.  This will be his second appearance for Hero’s, having smashed Shungo Oyama in a wild and one-sided fight in March.  As ever with Manhoef, his opponent needs to get this one to the ground in a hurry.  His murderous hooks, powerful low kicks and handspeed make him a very, very dangerous man.  True he lacks stamina and his ground game remains suspect but with his striking abilities, Manhoef is a threat to any opponent in his weightclass.  Usually fighting at around 200 pounds, if he sensibly cuts weight to 187, the Dutch monster will be even more fearsome.

Despite his obvious superiority on the ground, Newton (12-10) could be in for a very difficult return to action.  He last fought in October 2004, recording his third straight decision loss of the year, this time losing to Ryo Chonan.  At UFC 46 he was completely dominated by newcomer Renato ‘Charuto’ Verissimo.  Hampered by an inability to cut weight and held up at the US border after years of travelling on a student visa in the days before the fight, Newton was utterly outclassed by the BJJ black belt.  His preparation was nightmarish but even taking that into account, Newton’s performance was poor and he followed that with a controversial decision loss to Daiju Takase in a fight neither man probably deserved to win.  While each fight was different they all had one thing in common – Newton just looked flat and uninspired in all of them.

While many see him as a much smaller man, he cut weight to get down to 170 pounds during his UFC days and often fought at 180 and upwards in Japan.  He should be pretty comfortable at 187 but Manhoef is dropping down and barring any unforeseen problems cutting weight, should bring all his power with him.  Newton has a very good chin (he shook off a tremendous shot from ‘Pele’ Landi-Jons in their 2002 classic) but one mistake on his feet with Manhoef could open him up to a violent flurry of shots and a brutal finish.  Manhoef does have major stamina problems and if Newton can avoid his big shots long enough to drag the fight even into a second round things will get very interesting.  If Newton takes him down and works himself into a good position on the ground he should win as he’ll be able to control the fight and finish Manhoef with a submission.  Despite popular belief, Manhoef is capable of pacing himself (he was very restrained by his own manic standards in the June 2005 decision win over Bob Schrijber) and has a very good takedown defence.  Newton’s inactivity may hurt him, though after almost a decade of fighting regularly it should have given him time to rest and recuperate from the inevitable nagging injuries.  His new job as a coach for the IFL will have made some serious demands on his time since that position requires him to pick, train and look after a team of fighters and that could affect his focus and preparation here.  The bigger, more active Manhoef has fought 7 times since Newton’s last outing and despite his very obvious weaknesses the Cage Rage World Light Heavyweight champion should be able to keep this fight on his terms and batter the UFC and Pride veteran to defeat before his stamina runs out.

PREDICTION: Manhoef by TKO late in the first round.

Hideo Tokoro vs. Ivan Menjivar

With both Sudo and Yamamoto out of the picture its hardly surprising K-1 wanted Tokoro (14-10-1), a big hit with the housewives, back in the picture.  A loser in the first round of this tournament Tokoro certainly doesn’t deserve another shot but no MMA promotion with an eye on truly major business should ever be concerned purely with who is ‘the most deserving’.  Besides, he won an online vote for who should be the tournament’s eighth man so you could argue K-1 were simply listening to their fans.  Those who find Tokoro’s presence ‘unfair’ can take solace in the very real chance Menjivar (19-5) will wipe the floor with the former janitor.  Tokoro may be the pride of housewife hordes across Japan but jug eared ground specialist and ‘Pride of El Salvador’ Menjivar should be fairly confident of a place in the semi-finals.  Of Menjivar’s 5 losses one was an inexplicable referee stoppage against a debuting Georges St. Pierre in early 2002 and his most recent was by disqualification for illegally kicking a downed Urijah Faber.  Menjivar didn’t really look like winning the St. Pierre fight at the time but the official’s mysteriously early intervention robbed him of a chance to turn things around.  Of his other defeats, Matt Serra and Vitor ‘Shaolin’ Ribeiro couldn’t finish him inside the distance.  In fact only Jason Black has ever beaten him with a submission.  And that was over 4 years ago.

Tokoro is talented but just horribly inconsistent.  His win over Alexandre Franca Nogueira in last year’s Hero’s Grand Prix was a monumental upset and he performed well in a great fight, losing by decision to Caol Uno two months later.  On New Year’s Eve he held the much larger Royce Gracie to a draw in a fight where if there had been judges (love those Gracie rules) he could have been given the decision.  But he’s also been KOed twice with knees, once by a man he’d beaten twice before in Erikas Petraitis and once in the first round of this tournament by ‘Black Mamba’ Kultar Gill.  Tokoro is certainly a good fighter but is well short of being spectacularly good in any area.  Menjivar, with his squat frame has the power to launch him all over the place with throws and suplexes, slam him hard and once he gets him down just dominate with his high quality mat skills.  A powerful bundle of energy, Menjivar is capable of setting a relentless pace that few fighters can keep up with and has enough stamina to see it through to the final bell.  Tokoro may be able to last the distance but all those fans who voted for his tournament re-insertion will be sorely disappointed when Menjivar scores a convincing win.

PREDICTION: Menjivar by decision after two rounds.

Hiroyuki Takaya vs. Gesias Calvancanti

On a show that features a number of mismatches and disappointing fights, this is a real stand-out as a fascinating, hard to predict fight that should provide some fantastic action.  Slotted into the tournament because of Sudo and KID’s absences, 29-year-old Hero’s regular and former Shooto rising star Takaya (7-2-1) has racked up some great wins since his early 2003 debut and the only people he hasn’t been able to beat are truly high quality fighters.  He knocked Stephen Palling out with a devastating kick and blasted Jani Lax and Lithuanian nutcase Remigijus Morkevicius to defeat with punches.  Drawing with BJJ star Joao Roque, a far more experienced veteran, in only his fourth fight, Takaya also battled the unbeaten Gilbert Melendez, dropping a close decision in December 2004.  Takaya’s Grand Prix ended last year with a beautiful Genki Sudo triangle choke after a tense fight where Takaya countered Sudo’s unusual striking very effectively at times and landed some meaty shots of his own.  A sometimes slow and cautious fight, American Top Team fighter Calvancanti (8-1-1) will likely be much more aggressive than Sudo was.  That aggression, from both men, and their impressive, well-rounded skills mean this one could get very good, very quickly.

‘JZ’ Calvancanti was impressive in his first Cage Rage match last December, obliterating Japanese judoka and Hidehiko Yoshida protégé Michihiro Omigawa with a huge right hand and a couple more on the way down in just 49 seconds.  An athletically gifted, high-energy grappler ‘JZ’ has some excellent submission skills, some busy, effective striking and trains with one of the sport’s very best teams.  He took Joachim Hansen the distance, losing by decision, in just his third fight and is coming off a quick win where he hammered Hidetaka Monma in the first round of this tournament.  The Florida based Brazilian has fast, heavy hands and some very strong grappling skills.  In terms of entertaining the paying customers he’s improved greatly since a dull performance in late 2004 on his UK debut where he eventually tapped out Cengiz Dana and Takaya is a truly exciting fighter.  Naturally the bigger man, ‘JZ’ may try and physically dominate Takaya from the outset but will find his Japanese opponent exceptionally busy and tough.  Both have good chins and the necessary attributes to win this entire tournament.  It’s almost a shame one of them has to be eliminated here but they should produce a cracking scrap.  Takaya has probably beaten better opposition and has a more refined, accurate striking style.  That could just give him the edge in this fight.  Look for both men to be in, and escape trouble on numerous occasions before Takaya eventually hurts Calvancanti and finishes him with an onslaught of punches.

PREDICTION: Takaya by TKO late in the second round.

Rani Yahira vs. Kazuya Yasuhiro

Slick Brazilian submission stylist Yahira (8-1) earned a spot in the second round with a decision win over Ryuki Ueyama in May.  He shouldn’t have too much trouble getting past winless Karate practitioner and kickboxer Yasuhiro (0-1) and advancing to the semi-finals later this year.  Yasuhiro’s only previous MMA experience was an armbar defeat to KID Yamamoto a little over two years ago.  Obviously dangerous on his feet, his lack of skills on the ground will likely make this a very fast, very predictable fight.  The very gifted Yahira has lost just once, a May 2004 decision to 5-time World BJJ champion Fredson Paixao.  Since then he’s gone 5-0 and won 4 of his fights with chokes.  Highlights of that winning run have seen him put the deranged Takumi Yano to sleep with a triangle choke and his December 2005 fight with Taiyo Nakahara.  Yahira took his opponent down, defended against a Kimura attempt, worked his way from half guard into a side mount and ultimately a North/South choke in a very impressive 1:59.  Yasuhiro should be tapping out to some form of choke within the opening five minutes of this fight.

PREDICTION: Yahira by submission late in the first round.

Kultar Gill vs. Caol Uno

Canadian based Indian ‘Black Mamba’ Gill (8-3) needed just 43 seconds and a knee to the face of Hideo Tokoro to advance into the tournament’s second round.  His reward is the biggest and toughest fight of his career against the highly skilled Uno (20-8-4).  A veteran of K-1 MAX, Gill has his weaknesses on the mat with all 3 defeats coming by different kinds of submission.  Yves Edwards heel-hooked him, Fabio Holanda Kimura’d him and Daisuke Sugie triangled him.  Gill does own that win over Tokoro and submission victories over capable fighters Harris Sarmiento and Donald Ouimet though.  The tall, long limbed Gill was explosive against Tokoro and his busy striking style will give Uno some trouble, at least in the opening moments.  After that the versatile, hugely respected Shooto and UFC veteran should take over on his way to a spot in the semi-finals.  Unbeaten so far in 2006, Uno has decisioned Rich Clementi and choked out Dutch Muay Thai fighter Ole Laursen.  A smart veteran with some excellent technique, Uno has beaten Hideo Tokoro, Din Thomas and Yves Edwards, drawn with Tatsuya Kawajiri and BJ Penn and lost to Joachim Hansen in what may still be the best ever K-1 Hero’s fight in early 2005.  During last year’s tournament Uno contested a very close, absorbing fight with eventual champion KID Yamamoto.  With Yamamoto and Sudo out of the picture Uno is the most accomplished fighter left in the tournament and should be heavily favoured to beat Gill.  However, at 31 years old, a fighter since 1996 and competing for so long against some excellent fighters, Uno may be past his best.  Even if he is, and that’s open to question, he should win this fight.  Gill’s submission defence has improved over time so even when controlled and outclassed he should be able to last the distance and hear the final bell.

PREDICTION: Uno by decision after two rounds.

Alexandre Franca Nogueira vs. Koutetsu Boku

A high quality non-tournament fight sees two men; both former Shooto champions returning from serious knee injuries meet each other.  Aggressive, disciplined and dangerous Killer Bee fighter Boku (9-3) won his Pacific Rim title with a decision win over the tough Ryan Bow but never had a chance to defend the belt.  His knee injury forced him to relinquish the belt in December.  Last September he outworked Hermes Franca with his neat, technical striking to score a majority decision win in his first Hero’s fight but has not fought since.  Talented and efficient, Boku is capable of putting pressure on any fighter of his weight but with 6 decision wins out of 9, is hardly the sport’s best finisher.  Currently riding a 5-fight winning streak, he’s faced some good opposition and hasn’t lost a fight since he was armbarred by Kenichiro Togashi in June 2003.  Boku is anything but an easy comeback fight for ‘Pequeno’ Nogueira (12-3-2).

Nogueira was forced to vacate his Shooto belt after twice cancelling scheduled defences against Gilbert Melendez earlier this year, citing continued problems with his knee.  With two of his losses coming by KO his chin may be less than rock solid, particularly as the two men who have finished him off aren’t exactly known for their punching power.  ZST mid-carder Hideo Tokoro shot to fighting stardom blasting the Brazilian with a spinning backfist in last year’s biggest upset during the first Hero’s Grand Prix.  Tokoro has won just 2 of 25 professional fights by KO or TKO.  Hiroyuki Abe exploited Nogueira’s poor stand-up and leaky defence by drilling him with a great one-punch KO.  Abe has won just 2 of his 20 fights by KO or TKO.  The smaller Brazilian may have weaknesses in his striking but is an excellent mat technician.  Few fighters really have a ‘finishing move’ but ‘Pequeno’ has scored 7 wins with a simple guillotine choke.  He’s also been able to avenge the Abe loss (by submission) and a 2001 decision loss to Tetsuo Katsuta (again by submission).  A truly motivated Nogueira is a dangerous prospect for any lighter weight fighter.  His long lay-off, the fact his last appearance was the Tokoro loss and perhaps aware of the whispers he was simply afraid of fighting Melendez, he should be taking his return extremely seriously.  Whatever his reasons for the Tokoro loss (and he complained bitterly about a very fair stoppage) he just didn’t look good against a fighter he should have utterly outclassed.  If he performs anything like that against Boku, or fails to truly impose his will from the start, he could be looking at two successive losses for the first time in his career.  Nogueira should win this one but after a 13 month absence, with his suspect punch resistance and facing a far better striker, there’s a good chance Boku will spring the upset.  Look for Nogueira to control the fight on the ground but for Boku to punch his way to a come from behind victory late in the fight.

PREDICTION: Boku by TKO late in the second.

Predictions Re-cap:

Kazushi Sakuraba SUB2 Kestutis Smirnovas
Yoshihiro Akiyama SUB1 Kin Taiei
Rodrigo Gracie SUB2 Shungo Oyama
Melvin Manhoef TKO1 Carlos Newton
Ivan Menjivar DEC2 Hideo Tokoro
Hiroyuki Takaya TKO2 Gesias Calvancanti
Rani Yahira SUB1 Kazuya Yasuhiro
Caol Uno DEC2 Kultar Gill
Koutetsu Boku TKO2 Alexandre Franca Nogueira