A quick look at their website makes it clear they are building this first show around LA-based former Pride star Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson.  The promotion are paying Jackson more than Pride were willing to offer in the fervent hopes he can recapture the form he showed in 2003 when he was one of the sport’s most entertaining, charismatic performers.  The incredible profanity-laced interviews may be a thing of the past but if you’re going to build around an American fighter, Jackson is a good choice.  His headline match with Lindland may not be the best move (for reasons explored below) but ‘Rampage’, ‘the Law’, the long-awaited return of Bas Rutten and an appearance by fallen former UFC Heavyweight champion Ricco Rodriguez mean this show has plenty of name value.  Most importantly, with Rodriguez, Rutten and Jackson all based in LA, there’s local interest as well.  First impressions are vital and the WFA have a real chance of making a statement with a strong debut show.

Line-up:

Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Lindland
Bas Rutten vs. Kimo Leopoldo
Ryoto Machida vs. Vernon White
Ricco Rodriguez vs. Ron Waterman
Ivan Salaverry vs. Art Santore
Jason Miller vs. Lodune Sincaid
Rob McCullough vs. Harris Sarmiento
Jorge Oliveira vs. Marvin Eastman
July 22nd
The Forum, Los Angeles

Will the WFA Make It?

While the WFA clearly have big plans there’s an enormous difference between the kind of business they can expect compared to UFC.  Simply being on pay-per-view does not make them competitive with the Zuffa juggernaut.  To use an example from the pro wrestling pay-per-view business, WWE events draw between 150,000 and 600,000 buys depending on the importance of the show and the matches on offer.  The newer TNA promotion, which generally has much more entertaining shows sell between 20,000 and 50,000 pay-per-views, again depending on exactly what’s on offer.  The differences between them are that one is an established name brand with plenty of TV to hype the monthly pay-per-view.  One has far bigger name performers.  One has more money to spend on aggressively advertising the product.  One has a track record of success.  One is almost synonymous with the very product itself; it’s the brand name for the entire North American industry.  In pro wrestling that one is WWE and in MMA, it’s UFC.

The WFA are selling this show based on internet advertising, some local radio ads and an excellent infomercial on the Showtime cable channel.  UFC shows and tickets are sold by the Ultimate Fighter, by live specials on Spike TV, by UFC Unleashed, All Access and preview specials on the same channel and heavy local advertising.  Even worse for the upstart WFA, the UFC is unquestionably the name brand for MMA in North America.  Just putting on a show that features fights does not sell tickets, nor pay-per-views, as others have discovered.  The IFL have drawn some pitiful live attendances and while Strikeforce have pulled big crowds in San Jose, the first one was based on the local grudge match between Frank Shamrock and Cesar Gracie and simply being the first event of its kind in the city.  Unfortunately for the WFA, UFC got there first, with the Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin fight at UFC 59 being the first major MMA event in the city, thereby lessening the novelty value for this show.

The WFA’s plans to market its fighters are admirable, welcome stuff but with Pride buy rates very low in North America, Quinton Jackson is mainly known to the internet fans who will be interested anyway.  As for the pay-per-view end of things, this show comes two weeks after the worst UFC in years.  That could either help or hurt them.  Newer fans still looking for the action that eluded them during Tim Sylvia and Andrei Arlovski’s dance-off or Ken Shamrock’s pitiful showing against Tito Ortiz may be tempted to give the WFA a shot.  Or those who sampled an MMA pay-per-view for the first time may be so disgusted by UFC 61 that they simply give up on the sport.  Regular buyers may simply be burned out after so many UFC shows over the last couple of months.  We’ll have to see but every MMA fan should be fully behind the WFA.  They have assembled a great line-up and of course, competition between promotions can only benefit the fans.  Its going to be very tough at first but with a lot of patience, and even more money, they can make a real impact.  And now, on to the actual fights on what could well be a great debut show.

Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Lindland

Since the WFA are obviously so intent on making Jackson (24-6) their star this is a curious main event.  Lindland (18-3) certainly has name value as a 2000 Olympics Silver medallist and a longstanding UFC veteran, but as his fight with Van Arsdale showed, he’s hardly a draw.  Perhaps the promotion are hoping Jackson can carry the business end of the main event all alone but since Pride is far lower profile than the UFC and Jackson has never had a major match in the United States, they may end up a little disappointed.  Even worse, while it’s commendably even matchmaking, there’s a very real chance of Jackson losing a pretty boring fight.  That of course, would be a disaster.

For starters, Lindland’s wrestling ability is worlds ahead of Jackson’s.  A powerhouse with a fairly low level college freestyle background is no match for an Olympic medal winner and one of the very best in the sport at imposing his dominating Greco Roman wrestling style on his opponents.  While Jackson is active with short punches and knees to the body in the clinch, there’s very little he can do if Lindland gets the underhooks and neutralises those strikes.  There’s even less he can do if Lindland decides to take him down.  With his strength and explosiveness, Jackson is always a threat to just haul his opponent skywards for a slam and he’s done it to bigger men than Lindland but ‘the Law’ should be fine at cushioning anything besides the legendary power bomb/accidental headbutt combo that ended the Jackson-Arona fight.  On the ground things could get very interesting.  Lindland has progressed greatly, even since 2003 and has finished off BJJ artists Travis Lutter and Fabio Leopoldo with submissions.  He may not be a concussive puncher but he’s given some tough fighters a real beating on the ground.  Lindland is the only man to ever TKO Antonio Schembri, pounding him into the mat with punches, forearms and elbows for a great finish at Cage Rage 14 last December.

Jackson is certainly the better striker with a good array of shots, from a decent jab to heavy low kicks and some good, compact hooks and meaty overhand rights.  Lindland is sloppier and Jackson punches harder, but that doesn’t automatically mean Jackson will finish Lindland on their feet. Even back in 2001 and 2003 he went toe-to-toe with Phil Baroni at times and did more than just survive.  Legend has it that Lindland simply mauled and wrestled Baroni but significant portions of both fights saw him stand with the dangerous; New York Bad Ass’.  And Lindland has improved that part of his game significantly since then.  Jackson is naturally the bigger man and he should be stronger too, but Lindland’s unimpressive physique makes people underestimate his physical strength and he of course has great balance, wrestling technique and probably uses leverage better than anyone in the sport.  Despite Jackson’s physical advantages this could stylistically be the absolute worst match-up for him.  Put in with a striker with average grappling, Jackson can take them down and batter them.  Put in with a smaller submission expert, Jackson can overwhelm them, use his underrated submission defence and just batter a win out of them.  Put in with a truly elite grappler of any kind and he can be in serious trouble, most of his main attributes negated.  Ricardo Arona basically knocked Jackson out with up kicks before foolishly failing to finish him, allowing Jackson time to recover and come back to win.  Jackson looked awful in his last fight against a fast-improving but inexperienced and winless Judoka Dong Sik Yoon.  Jackson won by decision but Dong nearly caught him with a first round armbar.  What made that fight such a disappointment for Jackson was that everyone expected him to just annihilate Dong and instead he looked flat, uninspired and ran out of ideas very quickly.  True, he hammered Kevin Randleman but ‘the Monster’ is painfully one-dimensional and that fight was over 3 years ago, before Jackson’s crushing defeats to Wanderlei Silva and Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua.

One area where Jackson should have an edge is in high level preparation.  While Lindland still works with the Oregon based members of Team Quest (no Henderson or Couture), ‘Rampage’ has been training with Tito Ortiz and Josh Barnett.  Jackson’s religious conversion may have made him less fun on the microphone but there are more temporal reasons for his recent poor form.  Perhaps a change of scene and a rest was all Jackson needed.  After all, his relationship with Pride was rocky from the start (the degrading ‘homeless’ gimmick he started out with, the constant stream of yellow cards, the DQ loss to Daijiro Matsui, the ill-tempered contract negotiations) and he suffered injuries to his hands and ribs that have clearly affected him in recent fights.  There were also the brutal KO losses to nemesis Wanderlei Silva and the mounting realisation he was unlikely to ever dethrone the Chute Boxe superstar.  Perhaps just having a promotion 100% behind him will give him the confidence he needs to perform like the ‘old Rampage’.  He certainly showed some of his old spark last October when he bashed Horotaka Yokoi, but even with all that, and his size and strength; I think he’s going to lose.  Lindland is just so adept at controlling a fight and has the wrestling skill and seemingly limitless energy to overcome Jackson’s physical advantages and grind out a patient decision victory on the ground.

PREDICTION: Lindland by decision.

Bas Rutten vs. Kimo Leopoldo

It’s incredible just how much mileage someone can get out of losing a fight over a decade ago.  A UFC 3 losing effort in a shockingly hard-fought match with Royce Gracie has been very good to Kimo (9-5-1) over the years.  A powerful, but thoroughly mediocre fighter, Kimo has built a long and lucrative on-off career from roughing up the UFC Hall of Famer and achieved very little else.  Pitiful efforts in his fights with Ken Shamrock at UFC 48 (after which he was caught using steroids) and Ikuhisa Minowa at Pride: Bushido 8 give a pretty accurate measure of where Kimo stands as a fighter these days.  Yes he won a forgettable ‘Legends’ match with Tank Abbott at UFC 43 by submission but the beer-bellied brawler is one of very few well-known heavyweights Kimo would have a good chance of beating.  An uncultured striker, who, if the Minowa match is any guide, remains as clueless on the mat as in his first loss to Shamrock at UFC 8 in 1996, brings little aside from his name, physical strength and some of the worst tattoos in the sport.  His opponent is a very, very different matter.

Returning to action after a seven year absence Rutten (27-4-1) is a genuine MMA legend.  Oddly enough, the charismatic Dutchman only ever competed under ‘full’ MMA rules twice, spending the vast majority of his career in Pancrase during the palm strikes and rope breaks era.  He won both, KOing Tsuyoshi Kohsaka in a cracking UFC 18 fight and earning a decision win over Kevin Randleman at UFC 20.  But his status is well-deserved for his achievements in Pancrase and development as a fighter, not to mention his subsequent career outside the ring.  A competitor on the very first Pancrase event in September 1993, Rutten scored a brutal 43-second win over Ryushi Yanagisawa.  At that time, the Dutch kickboxer was a real outsider in the Pancrase system.  Most of the other fighters resented him and his style because while the overwhelming majority of early Pancrase fights were legitimate matches (whatever some dunderheaded cynics with non-existent evidence may claim) they were also a fairly ‘civilised’ form of fighting.  The emphasis was on submissions and grappling but Rutten just went in there and destroyed people with fast, heavy kicks and brutal palm strikes.  But Rutten, like his fellow IFL coach Maurice Smith, was one of the very first genuinely high-level strikers in MMA to improve and evolve.  A former King of Pancrase, Rutten won that title from Minoru Suzuki and earned a close decision win over Randleman to win the UFC Heavyweight title as well.  Kimo has never come close to that kind of success and its very hard to imagine him beating the likes of a peak Suzuki, Randleman, Frank Shamrock, Maurice Smith, Guy Mezger or Masakatsu Funaki, as Rutten did.

Don’t expect too much from Rutten’s return.  Forced to retire with knee, neck and bicep injuries, Rutten did no training at all for more than 3 years.  He’s taken this fight seriously though and has got back into shape.  This may be more of a one-off than a full-time comeback and it would be sensible of Rutten to pick his fights very carefully.  Too many fighters score a win over a similarly aged opponent and think they are ready for newer, younger opposition and end up taking a beating.  A hugely respected figure within MMA circles as a trainer, commentator, all-round entertainer, fighting legend and advocate for the sport, he should get a great reception from the audience but the fight is unlikely to be competitive or impressive.  Despite his long lay-off, the resulting ring rust and the passage of time slowing him down, Rutten is just far too talented for the likes of Kimo.  The muscle-bound Hawaiian will want no part of a stand-up battle and will do everything he can to take Rutten down.  Unfortunately for him, even there, ‘El Guapo’ has more skills.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Rutten hurts Kimo very quickly but gets taken down.  It shouldn’t take Rutten long to reverse him and extract a win from there, either with strikes or submission hold.

PREDICTION: Rutten by submission midway through the first.

Ryoto Machida vs. Vernon White

The long-awaited North American debut of one of the internet’s most-hyped fighters finally happens as former Antonio Inoki protégé Machida (7-0) takes on the hugely experienced Pancrase and original Lion’s Den veteran, White (24-27-2).  Machida’s commanding KO win over Rich Franklin on New Year’s Eve 2003 remains the UFC Middleweight champion’s only loss and it was hardly a fluke victory.  Although their respective careers since then suggest a rematch would be very different.  Machida dominated the fight and finished Franklin with a nasty combination of punches and knees early in the second round.  That made people sit up and take notice but subsequent results have been less than spectacular.  A belaboured decision victory over BJ Penn in March 2005 was thoroughly unimpressive.  Machida deserved the win but it was truly boring stuff and he failed to effectively use his very real height and weight advantages over the pudgy little Hawaiian.  Machida did just enough to win in a fight that he should have just physically dominated in.  His May 2004 fight with K-1 fighter, former pro wrestler, Bob Sapp’s former captor and a current stuntman for WWE films, Sam Greco was even more alarming for Machida fans.  Machida barely squeezed past Greco and took a very questionable split decision verdict in a fight where the Brazilian/Japanese fighter looked very ordinary.

Machida’s latest fight at Jungle Fight 6 in April was far better.  Machida controlled the first round with his grappling, landed plenty of punches on the ground and despite suffering a cut left eye had Dimitri Wanderley hurt late in the first round.  Machida opened the second round with a vicious low kick but took some good shots from the raw but promising Wanderley.  Taken down, Machida had a good defence on the mat and even cut his opponent open with strikes from the guard.  An unorthodox striker, Machida landed some hefty swinging punches and threw a nice variety of kicks in the third but looked wide open for counters with his Karate-inspired stance.  Still, he floored Wanderley with a good right hand, followed up with a few more and basically forced his reluctant opponent to quit through sheer exhaustion.  He may have enormous holes in his striking technique and is lacking in power but Machida sets a tremendous pace and has some good grappling skills.

An early protégé of Ken Shamrock, ‘Tiger’ White made his first Pancrase appearance on the company’s inaugural show with just four months of training.  He lost that fight, and 6 of his next 7 matches but grew and developed into a good fighter.  He left Pancrase just over 3 years later in October 1996 having compiled a record of 8-17-1.  Competent at everything but outstanding in nothing, White did beat Yoshiki Takahashi (most recently seen being destroyed by everyone he faces in Pride) twice and Minoru Suzuki by decision.  His overall record is very mediocre, but taking away the Pancrase matches, White has gone 16-10-1 fighting in Pride, UFC, KOTC and WEC among others.  His Pride and UFC records are poor though.  He went 0-2 in Japan, losing to Kazushi Sakuraba and Allan Goes.  He was 0-1-1 for Zuffa, drawing with Ian Freeman at UFC 43 and being KOed in a memorable UFC 49 war with Chuck Liddell that white had little chance of winning but at least played the role of an entertaining punishment sponge very well en route to a broken orbital socket.  White has beaten some good opposition in the last decade with wins over Vladimir Matyushenko and David Terrell.  However, they both came in 1999 and his only recent win over strong opposition was a second round KO of Alex Stiebling at WEC 17 in October 2005.  White almost always loses to genuinely high quality fighters and despite some glaring weaknesses, Machida has serious talent.  White will be tough and can make Machida look bad for a while but the younger, undefeated fighter will pull off his first win in North America by a comfortable margin on the judge’s cards.

PREDICTION: Machida by decision.

Ricco Rodriguez vs. Ron Waterman

Whatever possessed the former UFC Heavyweight champion Rodriguez (22-6) to eat his way out of top contention, ballooning up to a grotesque 330 pounds and losing to people he would have destroyed a couple of years earlier, he has a chance for redemption here.  He was one of the sport’s top heavyweights in 2002 and 2003.  Holding a TKO win over Andrei Arlovski, and beating Jeff Monson, he survived a rough first couple of rounds to end Randy Couture’s heavyweight career and take the belt with a gutsy, compelling 5th round TKO win.  Then things started to go wrong.  Rodriguez had shown up for the Couture fight in great condition but his first, and only title defence against Tim Sylvia saw him looking decidedly chubby.  Floored heavily by a decent right hand, Rodriguez was helpless against Sylvia’s follow-up barrage on the ground, losing the title in just 3:09.  Showing up fatter than ever for his August 2003 Pride fight with Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera he still managed to take Noguiera down and control him for long enough periods that even today, some people (even taking into account Pride’s scoring system) remain deluded into thinking he deserved a decision win.  Rodriguez was again out of shape for his horrific UFC 45 fight with the ridiculously negative Pedro Rizzo in both men’s last, woeful appearances for Zuffa.  Rodriguez is 8-2 since the start of 2004 but generally against opposition a man of his talent shouldn’t even be in the ring with.

Rodriguez has always had talent; he’s very, very good on the ground and is a tough, technically skilled wrestler.  Fast and with good stamina when he’s in shape, the key problem is just that.  Rodriguez has rarely been in anything other than horrible shape over the last 3 years.  True, he seemed less corpulent than usual when cornering Tito Ortiz at UFC 59 and UFC 61 but in some fights Rodriguez has been practically spherical with his shorts hoisted up almost to his armpits like pro wrestler Abdullah the Butcher in a pointless effort to hide his flab.  If he has his weight truly under control and has found a renewed love for training and fighting, opponent Waterman (13-3-2) could be in trouble.  If not, and the fat, disinterested Rodriguez who lost to unknown Robert Beraun in January could be in for a beating.

Ron ‘H20Man’ Waterman is a very different kind of super-heavyweight.  An immense 6’2”, 280 pound amateur wrestler turned bodybuilder turned fighter turned pro wrestler turned fighter and man of God, Waterman is one intimidating looking preacher.  A 40-year-old UFC, Pride and Pancrase veteran, Waterman last fought in August 2005 taking a unanimous decision over Rodriguez.  Hopefully this turns out more exciting than the painfully slow paced match they had last time.  Slow, sometimes lacking in aggression and very, very predictable, Waterman does not specialise in entertaining fights.  His fight with Rodriguez was awful, as was his late 2004 decision loss to Tsuyoshi Kohsaka for the Pancrase Super Heavyweight belt and his August 2004 Pride win over Kevin Randleman.  Kohsaka used a greater work rate and overall skill level to beat the American while his keylock win over Randleman (the fourth of his MMA career) was the epitome of dullness.  Waterman can certainly take Rodriguez down and this will likely be decided on the mat.  Rodriguez is hardly the kind of fighter that will destroy Waterman standing as Mirko Cro Cop did in just 97 seconds in early 2004.  Once on the ground, Rodriguez needs an active defence, an awareness of Waterman’s keylock-mania and the stamina to survive long enough to exploit an opening.  Slick with armbars from almost any position, look for Rodriguez to win with one somewhere around the middle of the allotted three rounds.

PREDICTION: Rodriguez by submission midway through the second.

Ivan Salaverry vs. Art Santore

Like Rodriguez, Salaverry (11-4) gets a chance for redemption, though of a very different kind, as he takes on tough Team Quest mainstay Santore (14-4).  A true professional, Salaverry has never eaten his way out of contention.  Instead he entered one of the most negative performances in recent UFC history in the main event of the first UFC Ultimate Fight Night last August.  Dropping a decision in a truly horrible 15 minutes of in-action, Salaverry seemed utterly incapable of any aggression and was the main culprit of a ‘fight’ so atrocious it was edited off the replay.  Incredible for a main event match between two leading middleweight contenders.  The AMC Pankration veteran was coming off a pair of great UFC wins over Tony Fryklund and Joe Riggs.  A very intelligent, strategic fighter, Salaverry has some great skills on the ground and is an effective striker.  His experience and size (he cuts a great deal of weight to make 185) could be real factors too.

This is a major test ‘Pachuco’ Santore.  He’s never beaten anyone as good as Salaverry and at 33, he’s hardly a young fighter.  He only loses to quality fighters like Canadians Stephan Potvin and Joe Doerksen, Pancrase veteran Osami Shibuya and KOTC standout Joey Villasenor.  Only Villasenor has actually beaten the extremely durable Santore inside the distance, and that was on a cut.  Gifted submission stylist Doerksen thoroughly dominated Santore on the mat but just couldn’t find a way to finish him.  Their high energy ground battle was a highlight of an excellent ‘Freedom Fight’ event held in Canada last year and this fight could look much like that one.  As expected from a Team Quest member, Santore is a good wrestler and is coming off 3 KO victories.  He’s been much busier than Salaverry too, competing five times and going 4-1 since the Doerksen loss last July.  Still, Salaverry’s greater talent should win him the fight, most likely by decision.

PREDICTION: Salaverry by decision.

Jason Miller vs. Lodune Sincaid

It’s remarkable that even on a show with personalities like Jackson and Rutten, Jason 'Mayhem’ Miller (15-4) stands out as the event’s most entertaining, charismatic character.  A regular on the Hawaiian scene since 2003, Miller has used his outgoing personality, hugely exciting fighting style and colourful life outside the ring, to become one of the island’s most talked about fighters.  With an 8-1 record since early 2003, Miller has beaten Egan Inoue, Ronald Jhun, Falaniko Vitale, local Hawaiian favourite Mark Moreno and even the enormous ‘White Bob Sapp’ Stefan Gamlin, all of them inside the distance.  Improbably flexible and slippery on the mat (the contortions he used to evade George St. Pierre’s submission and striking attempts in a fantastic UFC 52 match have to be seen to be believed) Miller has a very aggressive submission game of his own.  Favouring chokes and armbars, Miller is incredibly dangerous on the mat.  After his loss to St. Pierre, where the tall middleweight somehow got down to 170 pounds, Miller signed an exclusive deal with ICON Sport (formerly Superbrawl) where he had been competing regularly and was set to be the company’s top star.  An inability to stay on the right side of the law derailed his career for a while but its hard to keep a man with his talent and charisma down for long.  Look for him to make an enormous impression in just his second major pay-per-view fight as he moves up to 205 pounds.

Fellow oddball and TUF1 competitor Sincaid (9-2) didn’t make much of an impression inside the Octagon during the first season of the reality show that sparked UFC’s current popularity explosion but has had some good results since.  He beat former housemate Alex Schoenauer by submission on a Sportfight event in January and followed that up with a WEC decision win over James Irvin in March.  But neither of those fighters are anything like as talented as Miller.  And despite some improvements since, Sincaid’s first round TKO loss to Nate Quarry at the TUF12 live finale is most indicative of his skill level.  He’s a decent fighter but anyone with genuine talent should beat him.  Miller has plenty of that and will take this one by submission, most likely inside a round.

PREDICTION: Miller by submission late in the first

Rob McCullough vs. Harris Sarmiento

Dangerous lightweight ‘Razor’ Rob McCullough (12-3) will be looking for revenge against the last man to defeat him as he takes on Hawaiian Sarmiento (18-14).  McCullough dropped a split decision in that January 2004 fight and has since racked up 6 straight wins by either stoppage on the KOTC and WEC circuit, including his brutal one punch KO of Mexican lunatic Olaf Alfonso that left the hairy entertainer unconscious on the mat for several minutes.  McCullough, a long-time training partner of Tito Ortiz and Quinton Jackson hits very, very hard.  An extensive Muay Thai background makes him more than just a brawler and he has some great knees in the clinch.  McCullough has improved his grappling since the first Sarmiento fight and should be the favourite here, particularly with Sarmiento’s recent history.

While McCullough has gone 6-0 since that first fight, Sarmiento has gone 12-7 and lost his last four matches.  The talented KJ Noons stopped him with strikes and 35-year old Shooto bantamweight Jin Kazeta did the same.  Sarmiento fought on both San Jose Strikeforce events too – being completely and utterly dominated by Gilbert Melendez and most recently being choked out by Josh Thomson.  A decent grappler with some brawling skills, Sarmiento lacks the overall skill to repeat his earlier win over McCullough and while the California based striker could become a star if the WFA takes off, Sarmiento is likely headed for a fight successive inside the distance defeat.  Look for McCullough to end it with strikes fairly early.

PREDICTION: McCullough by TKO late in the first.

Jorge Oliveira vs. Marvin Eastman

Promising US based Brazilian Oliveira (2-1) only made his MMA debut in 2005 and will be giving up a great deal of experience against ‘the Beastman’ (13-6).  Eastman combines a tight, effective kickboxing style with some surprisingly good grappling and has some good wins behind him.  He hammered Alex Stiebling in just 67 seconds on an old WFA event, has picked up decisions over Vernon White and Travis Wiuff and finished talented Frenchman Antony Rea in a tough fight last summer.  Eastman has excellent stamina and was also a little unfortunate not to get the win against rising UFC fighter Jason Lambert when they met last May.  The judges awarded Lambert the split decision in a fight where Eastman floored his opponent and clearly hurt him several times.  It wasn’t an outright robbery but still, the wrong man probably won.  A short fighter, Eastman will be giving up some reach and at times has a lax defence both striking and grappling.  Travis Lutter, hardly a great striker, KOed him a single right hand in their abysmal UFC 50 fight and he was surprisingly caught with a guillotine by the ordinary Jason Guida in April. 

Oliveira has real submission skills and is coming off a great win over Mike Van Arsdale.  He finished the enormously talented wrestler (but admittedly aged fighter) with a first round rear naked choke.  Oliveira’s first win came against another experienced veteran as he decisioned the washed-up Shonie Carter in January 2005.  Oliveira was doing well in his fight with Justin Levens last October until being knocked out with a huge slam and although his stand-up can be sloppy, Oliveira’s long limbs should give him a serious reach advantage against the stumpy Eastman.  If Oliveira can take the fight to the ground he should be able to finish things with a submission too.  Look for him to struggle with Eastman’s kickboxing for much of the fight but turn it around late for the win.

PREDICTION: Oliveira by submission midway through the third.

Predictions Re-cap:

Matt Lindland DEC3 Quinton Jackson
Bas Rutten SUB1 Kimo
Ryoto Machida DEC3 Vernon White
Ricco Rodriguez SUB2 Ron Waterman
Ivan Salaverry DEC3 Art Santore
Jason Miller SUB1 Lodune Sincaid
Rob McCullough TKO1 Harris Sarmiento
Jorge Oliveira SUB3 Marvin Eastman

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