Line-up:

Tito Ortiz vs. Ken Shamrock
UFC Heavyweight title: Tim Sylvia vs. Andrei Arlovski
Frank Mir vs. Dan Christison
Josh Neer vs. Josh Burkman
Yves Edwards vs. Joe Stevenson
Hermes Franca vs. Roger Huerta
Drew Fickett vs. Kurt Pellegrino
Jeff Monson vs. Anthony Perosh
Gilbert Aldana vs. Cheik Kango
July 8th
Las Vegas

Tito Ortiz vs. Ken Shamrock

Former Zuffa golden boy Ortiz (13-4) gave Shamrock (26-10-2) a frightful beating in their UFC 40 grudge match in November 2002.  Aside from a brief moment where Shamrock floored the then UFC Light Heavyweight champion, it was painfully one sided.  Ortiz handed out a serious beating and forced Shamrock to quit on his stool after the third of a scheduled five rounds.  He made Shamrock look like a washed up old man.  That was nearly four years ago.  Now, in fighting terms at least, Shamrock certainly is an old man, and one clinging to desperate hopes of glory because he just can’t let it go (when did he ever let anything rest?) and supposedly needs the money after some heavy spending and a couple of costly divorces.  Since the Ortiz pasting, Shamrock has gone 1-2 and, ominously, has been knocked out twice.  His lone win in that period, indeed his only win since August 2001 came against Kimo Leopoldo, a man who has made a career out of being pretty fearsome more than a decade ago and doing very little ever since.  To put Shamrock’s position in perspective, he’s won just 3 fights this century, beating Leopoldo, Sam Adkins and pro wrestler Alexander Otsuka.  Underwhelming stuff.

Losing to Rich Franklin at the first live TUF finale in April 2005 was certainly no disgrace and it set Franklin on the road to his current stardom, but the way it happened should have been a definite wake-up call for Shamrock.  Slipping badly on an attempted takedown, he just didn’t have the reflexes (a sure sign of his advancing age) to stop his opponent from pouncing and drilling him with a combination of rights and lefts that ended the fight in emphatic fashion.  He seems to be carrying pretty serious injuries into every fight these days, and tends to emerge with even more.  A torn knee ligament prior to the first Ortiz fight, a torn rotator cuff sustained during the Kimo fight and a knee injury he October should have told Shamrock he’s just not capable of fighting at a high level any longer.  Knocked senseless and left defenceless with his back turned, his head and arms draped over the ropes by a single clipping shot from the feather-fisted, even more broken down and in need of retirement Sakuraba was hardly the fairytale ending to his career but it should have been just that – the end.  Instead, Shamrock found excuses.  It was apparently a premature stoppage, just as the knee injury was the only reason he lost to Ortiz (it contributed, but was far from the only reason) and a slip was the only reason Franklin beat him.  Certainly the Shamrock-Sakuraba fight was stopped quickly but only a misguided sadist really wants to see a 40-plus year-old man take a savage beating.  True, Sakuraba is hardly the kind of fighter that hands out savage beatings, but he’s hardly the kind of fighter that scores one punch knockouts either, especially with an innocuous looking punch like that.  The fact is, at that moment, Shamrock was completely unable to defend himself and the referee quite rightly, stopped the fight.  Shamrock’s quick recovery and almost instantaneous protests are irrelevant because he was in no position to protest, or do much of anything when the fight was actually stopped.  The scary thing is, if Sakuraba did that to him, what is Ortiz capable of?

For starters, Ortiz is a much better wrestler than Shamrock.  He’s also better at punishing people on the ground, is younger and has shown the chin and resilience to come back from some heavy punishment to win fights.  Vitor Belfort almost finished him off in the second at UFC 51 but Ortiz came back later that round and thoroughly dominated the third.  The knee injury that affected him so badly in the latter stages of the Forrest Griffin fight at UFC 59 is not as serious as the one Shamrock had in late 2002 either.  Oh, and while Shamrock, as evidenced by his attitude, demeanour and coaching methods during TUF3 is stubbornly living in the past, Ortiz constantly looks to future and trains with the very best.  After the literal spanking he took from Randy Couture at UFC 44, Ortiz trained with Team Quest.  Over the years Ortiz has constantly looked for, and found, training partners to push him, to improve him while Shamrock still seems to train as though its 1994.  Ortiz is an explosive starter too, while Shamrock tends to be far more cautious.  The first two minutes or so of the Shamrock-Sakuraba fight saw them circling and posturing yet Ortiz immediately went after Griffin, took him down and tried to smash him straight through the mat with a brutal elbow onslaught.  Griffin, who’s so tough and stubborn he probably verges on mental illness, took it and survived.  Shamrock won’t.  This could become uncomfortable viewing very quickly.  Unless Ortiz’ knee fails him completely, he will take Shamrock down.  He will push him up against the fence.  And he will crush him with punches and elbows.  Almost four years ago, Shamrock took it and kept fighting back, showing tremendous heart against insurmountable odds but with his age, slower reactions and a very questionable chin, this one will be nastier, shorter, and for Shamrock fans, much sadder.

PREDICTION: Ortiz by TKO late in the first round.

UFC Heavyweight title: Tim Sylvia vs. Andrei Arlovski

Whatever the fighters may think, and whatever Zuffa pretend, this is not the main event.  Shamrock and Ortiz are the ones shifting tickets and pay-per-view buys.  That said, defending champion Sylvia (21-2) and the deposed Arlovski (9-4), meeting for the third time in 17 months is a much more intriguing, harder fight to predict.  The first time around, Minsk born, Chicago based Arlovski floored Sylvia with a vicious right hand, passed his flailing legs and caught him with a leglock the Miletich fighter seemed thoroughly incapable of defending against for a 47 second win.  In their April rematch, Arlovski decked Sylvia with an almost identical right hand but couldn’t finish so quickly.  The bigger man scrambled, desperately defended and survived long enough to stand up.  Arlovski charged in wildly, planting his chin straight onto a Sylvia punch that dropped him heavily.  An alert Sylvia followed up with a barrage of shots on the ground for a stunning victory 2:43 into the first round.  The chances are this will go longer since Arlovski will be more careful but it still won’t be going the full five rounds.

Sylvia’s stand-up has looked better of late with him brutally finishing Tra Telligman and decisioning Assuerio Silva in fights spent almost entirely on their feet.  Arlovski though is a much faster, more technically adept striker.  Sylvia’s height and reach should be big factors but the 6’9” fighter tends to stoop down to his opponent’s height and Arlovski is a good 6’4” himself.  Both have good jabs and effective low kicks, though Arlovski’s are sudden and spiteful while Sylvia’s are slow and thudding.  Arlovski is a finely balanced, athletically gifted, aggressive, entertaining fighter with ideal size for a heavyweight but as the April fight yet again showed, his chin is questionable.  That was the third time Arlovski has been badly hurt with a single shot and ultimately finished off.  The bizarre Viacheslav Datsik did it back in 1999 and Pedro Rizzo finished him with a single shot at UFC 36 in 2002.  Sylvia may be the better wrestler but Arlovski has a clear edge in submission grappling, despite rarely needing to show it.  The Sylvia loss snapped Arlovski’s six-fight rampage through the UFC heavyweight division but the Belarussian should get back on track and regain his title here.  Sylvia is desperate to prove his win wasn’t a fluke but if this pair fought 10 times, I’d expect Arlovski to win 8 of them.  Fuelled by a need for revenge, but aware Sylvia can blast him out, expect Arlovski to be more cautious this time around.  He can pick his slower opponent apart with his neat kickboxing and wait for his opening to finish the fight in impressive fashion.  Look for him to do just that.

PREDICTION: Arlovski by TKO late in the second.

Frank Mir vs. Dan Christison

Seven months after Mir’s (8-2) catastrophic comeback against Marcio ‘Pe De Pano’ Cruz at UFC 57, Zuffa look to have an opponent the former UFC Heavyweight champion can actually beat.  ‘The Sandman’ Christison (8-3) stepped in to replace an injured Kerry Schall in the early stages of TUF2 and was hardly impressive, losing a decision to the more skilled Seth Petruzelli.  A big, powerful man with some reasonable submission skills, Christison stepped in as a late replacement at UFN4 to armbar rugged brawler Brad Imes late in the third round.  Mir reportedly considered retirement after his humiliating beating at the hands of Cruz and if he loses to Christison then there’s really nowhere left for him to go.  Accustomed to good paydays, favoured status as one of Zuffa’s poster boys and well known in Las Vegas, Mir needs to maintain a certain level of performance and it should be one beyond what Christison is capable of.

The Cruz fight was interesting mainly because Mir would actually be in there with a much better submission grappler who was very new to MMA.  Losing by submission was a possibility but being battered by some of the sloppiest ground n’ pound in recent memory was a big surprise.  Badly cut and disoriented, Mir’s defence completely fell apart, as it had at UFC 38 when Ian Freeman obliterated him and at one point Mir was checked over by a doctor.  Admitting he couldn’t see out of one eye was a clear indication Mir wanted out but he was sent back in to take more punishment in the hopes he could somehow turn things around.  He couldn’t and was given an unusual amount of time before the eventual stoppage.  At 6’8” and hovering around 270 pounds, Christison is huge with some skills.  He trains with the excellent Jackson’s Submission Fighting camp in New Mexico but just doesn’t have the talent to beat Mir.  Only Dan Severn and Eric Pele have beaten Christison and he’s improved since then.  His sheer size could give Mir trouble early but look for Mir to turn things around on the mat and win with an armbar.

PREDICTION: Mir by submission late in the first.

Josh Neer vs. Josh Burkman

Miletich fighter Neer (17-3-1) is coming off a great performance at UFN4, scoring a unanimous decision over heavily-favoured TUF2 welterweight champion Joe Stevenson.  Neer survived a gruesome kneebar attempt in an excellent first round and then used some efficient punching both on his feet and on the mat to grind out a win over an exhausted Stevenson.  A very tough, talented Miletich fighter, Neer has only lost to quality fighters in Drew Fickett (a nightmarish UFC debut, being choked completely out in just 95 seconds), Nick Thompson and Spencer Fisher.  Very well-rounded, with excellent stamina, the aggressive but composed ‘Dentist’ is still only 23 years old and has three impressive submission wins over Forrest Petz, Derrick Noble and Melvin Guillard (UFN3).  A varied, efficient finisher, just 3 of Neer’s 17 wins have gone to a judge’s decision with him picking up 4 wins with submission holds and earning another 3 tapouts due to strikes.  Neer survived some nasty elbows and suffered a horrific cut over the right eye against Melvin Guillard.  Neer reacted calmly though and slipped in a very nice triangle choke late in the first, pulling off a great win in a battle against both Guillard and the growing inevitability that the fight would be stopped sooner or later by the doctor.  With Neer’s talent and that kind of maturity, Burkman (6-3) could be looking at a seconds successive defeat.

Team Quest fighter and TUF2 contestant Burkman took something of a beating from AKA fighter Jon Fitch at UFN4 after impressing everyone with a pair of very quick UFC wins.  First he slammed Sam Morgan unconscious just 21 seconds into their TUF2 Finale fight and then at UFN3 needed a mere 67 seconds to guillotine an over-eager Drew Fickett.  Burkman was the first welterweight to score a victory during TUF2, scoring a hard-fought but well-deserved decision win over Melvin Guillard.  Even a broken arm caused by blocking one of Guillard’s powerful kicks barely slowed Burkman’s aggressive wrestling down.  This is one of the hardest, perhaps the hardest, fights on the show to predict.  The only safe prediction is that somebody called Josh is winning this fight.  Both have a wide range of skills and while neither man is exceptional at any one thing, both of them are more than competent in every single aspect of fighting.  Neer has more professional fights but Burkman had quite a few amateur contests.  Both are from highly regarded camps and both only lose to very good opposition (Burkman to Fitch, Jeremy Horn and Matt Horwich).  Their only common opponents are Guillard (both won) and Fickett (Neer lost quickly, Burkman won quickly).  This should be an incredibly close fight with the first man to make a mistake paying the penalty.  Burkman is very good but Neer has more momentum coming off that win over Stevenson.  Look for him to take this one as well.

PREDICTION: Neer by submission late in the second.

Yves Edwards vs. Joe Stevenson

Stevenson (24-7) dominated his opponents during the TUF2 series, using his excellent wrestling, ground control, striking on the mat and some nice submission work to beat the ludicrous Marcus Davis and the tough but limited Jason Von Flue.  In the live finale he faced Luke Cummo and picked up a decision win in a cracking, back-and-forth fight where Stevenson controlled a little more of the action on top, despite fighting with a nasty shoulder injury.  Stevenson laid in some brutal elbows but couldn’t finish the constantly moving Cummo.  Most expected him to beat Josh Neer at UFN4 in April but hampered by his own poor conditioning and faced with a very tough and active opponent, the fight slipped away from Stevenson and he dropped the decision.  That was Stevenson’s first defeat since he lost by decision to Romie Aram in October 2002.  Three of his six losses came during his first year as a professional when Stevenson was a raw, aggressive teenager, fighting older, talented men like Brennan and Jens Pulver.  A former KOTC and Gladiator Challenge regular, Stevenson holds wins over Thomas Denny, Jeremy Jackson, Brad Gumm and Edwin Dewees.  He looked close to a shot at the UFC anyway when TUF came along and the likeable father of about 53 children grabbed his opportunity when it came.  There’s nothing particularly fancy about his style – he’s simply a brutishly strong fighter with good technique in all areas, particularly on the mat.  Stevenson’s striking is the weakest aspect of his game, but even then he’s more than competent.  However, mere competence on his fight may not be enough in this fight.  With the welcome return of the UFC lightweight division, Stevenson has dropped to his more natural weight of 155 pounds where his strength and wrestling are even more apparent than at 170 pounds.  However, he’s facing one of the sport’s very best lightweights in Thugjitsu Texan Edwards (29-10-1).

Edwards made his long overdue return to the Octagon at UFC 58.  Essentially the uncrowned UFC Lightweight champion by virtue of his spectacular high kick KO of Josh Thomson at UFC 49 in August 2004, Edwards was a heavy favourite to beat Canadian kickboxer Mark Hominick.  Edwards had gone 3-1 since unleashing an incredible enziguiri that knocked Thomson senseless late in the first round of a fight that could easily have been for the vacant 155 pound crown had Zuffa chosen to carry on promoting the weightclass.  Between that and the Hominick fight Edwards hammered ZST star Naoyuki Kotani and picked up his second of two very controversial split decision wins over Hermes Franca (the first at UFC 47), shocked Dokonjonosuke Mishima with an armbar and going the distance in an extremely close fight with Joachim Hansen.  Those last two fights were in last October’s Pride: Bushido Lightweight tournament and really underline just how much experience Edwards has at the very highest level.  However, none of that experience could stop him losing to Hominick in one of the year’s biggest upsets so far.  After a busy first round that saw both men land some good punches and kicks Hominick hurt Edwards with a beautiful punch-knee-punch combination of shots, all to the same spot on the right hand side of Edwards’ body, early in the second.  Clearly hurt, Edwards took Hominick down but fell victim to a slowly set up triangle choke that ended the fight in shocking fashion.  Edwards just seemed to disregard any chance of Hominick submitting him and paid the price for his foolishly lax defence.  He was back in action 29 days later, taking a comfortable decision win over an energetic Seichi Ikemoto at Pride: Bushido 10 in a fight where Edwards took few risks and the action stayed on their feet.

With a UFC record of 6-3 and fights with Hansen, Mishima, Franca, Tatsuya Kawajiri, Aaron riley and a peak Rumina Sato behind him, Edwards has mixed in far higher company than Stevenson.  Edwards also started his career some 19 months earlier than Stevenson too and has fought all over the world for some of the sport’s biggest and most respected promotions.  In early 2004 Stevenson was still an upper-midcard KOTC regular while Edwards was featured on UFC pay-per-views.  Edwards also has a major edge in striking and never seems to tire while Stevenson’s stand-up skills are basic and he tired alarmingly early in the Neer fight.  Both have excellent chins and in their combined 71 fights there has been just one KO defeat and that was in Stevenson’s third fight where as a 17-year-old he was blasted out by Jens Pulver in 38 seconds.  With his fast, vicious punches and superb Muay Thai clinch and knees, Edwards can hurt Stevenson, or any 155-pounder in the world, but a knockout looks unlikely for either man.  Edwards’ lack of submission awareness against Hominick was likely an aberration as he’s been tapped out just 4 times in his entire career – the only other men to do it were Sato, Nathan Marquardt and Fabiano Iha and the most recent of those was just over 6 years ago.  Stevenson is good with submissions and he went for plenty against Neer, almost pulling his leg off with a nasty kneebar in the first round but probably won’t catch Edwards.  Ten of Edwards’ wins have come by submission and his armbarring Mishima was a real surprise as most expected him to score the win with his fists or feet but Stevenson should be good enough to avoid any of Edwards’ submission attempts.  Which all leaves us with the likeliest outcome of a decision.  Stevenson’s wrestling is far better but even with the inexperienced Cummo he had real trouble holding down a lively fighter on the mat.  Edwards just has more effective striking weapons and the Hominick loss will have reminded him not to be complacent.  Stevenson will try and wrestle and maul his way top a victory and he will make things very uncomfortable for Edwards early on but sooner or later the Texan’s experience, stamina and striking will come into play and he should walk away with a win.  The pay-per-view may not get off top a bang with a highlight reel finish (this is scheduled as the opener) but it should be the fight of the night by some distance.

PREDICTION: Edwards by decision.

Hermes Franca vs. Roger Huerta

Zuffa’s revival of the lightweight division is one of the best things the company have done all year in a year filled with successes.  And fights like this demonstrate just how much the 155 pound division has to offer.  Franca (14-5) dropped an achingly close split decision to Yves Edwards at UFC 47 in his last Zuffa appearance and has been on incredible form in 2006.  The former American Top team fighter has gone 4-0 since the start of the year, winning every fight in the first round and 3 of them inside the first minute.  A hugely talented BJJ stylist, Franca has made tremendous stand-up improvements in the last couple of years.  His 2006 performance has been particularly impressive since he had a disastrous 2005, going 0-3, dropping decisions to Edwards in a rematch and talented Shoot fighter Koutetsu Boku and being blasted out by Ray Cooper inside 3 minutes.  At 31 years old, Brazilian born Franca is 8 years older than his opponent Huerta (14-1-1) and will be a huge test for the UFC newcomer.

An All American wrestler in high school, the brutally strong Huerta has been fighting professionally for less than 3 years.  Riding a 10-fight winning streak, Huerta has yet to legitimately lose a fight.  His one official loss to Ryan Schultz came in the final of a one-night tournament at Superbrawl 36 in 2004, and that was a submission due to an injury.  Huerta did lose a split decision to TUF2 fighter and rising UFC star Melvin Guillard in March 2005 but that (very questionable decision) was later overturned by the athletic commission since Huerta had trouble grabbing hold of his opponent since Guillard was practically being dipped in a vat of Vaseline inbetween rounds.  Even dealing with an energetic, illegally slippy opponent, Huerta dominated the fight and has a real chance to pull off a winning UFC debut.  A Miletich fighter who learned stand-up skills under Guy Mezger, Huerta has incredible potential.  Bursting with energy and with great stamina reserves (finalist in two one-night tournaments) Huerta could just be too much for Franca.  Look for him to constantly press the action and walk away with a dominant decision victory.

PREDICTION: Huerta by decision.

Drew Fickett vs. Kurt Pellegrino

There’s something about the Arizona based Fickett (24-6) and chokes.  His four-fight UFC tenure has seen every fight, aside from his disastrous debut at UFC 51 where Nick diaz just beat him up, concluded with a choke of one kind or other.  He made a dominant return at the first UFN, putting Josh Neer to sleep with a rear naked choke in just 95 seconds.  At UFN2, Fickett looked on the way to a slow, grinding defeat at the hands of Josh Koscheck until catching the fuzzy-haired TUF1 heel with a perfect counter to a diving takedown – a sharp knee to the face.  Rolling over, almost out of it, Koscheck was easy prey for a another Fickett RNC and like Neer, neglected to tap so ended up asleep.  Fickett’s UFN3 match ended less happily for the hugely experienced, well-rounded 26-year-old as Josh Burkman caught him with a guillotine for the submission and only his second loss since July 2003.  Just one of a crop of talented welterweights in Zuffa’s employ, Fickett holds pre-UFC wins over Edwin Dewees, Dennis Hallman, Carlo Prater and Kenny Florian, and will be a very stiff test for newcomer Pellegrino (6-1).  A training partner of Hermes Franca, the highly touted Pellegrino has some great wrestling and BJJ skills and is an aggressive finisher.  However, he lacks experience and was beaten buy the only truly quality fighter he’s ever faced – Pancrase regular Satoru Kitaoka.  That was almost two years ago and Pellegrino has reeled off a string of wins, mainly by submission, since then.  Fickett needs to be wary of Pellegrino’s chokes but the 4-time UFC veteran should have the better stand-up skills and his major experience should see him through a tough fight.  This could well end with a choke but I think they may end up going the distance with Fickett walking away with a unanimous verdict after 15 hard-fought minutes.

PREDICTION: Fickett by decision.

Jeff Monson vs. Anthony Perosh

Australian UFC debutant Perosh (5-1) is a BJJ black belt who trains with Elvis Sinosic has the height advantage at 6’3” and loves the rear naked choke but is unlikely to beat Cage Warriors heavyweight champion Monson (21-5).  Perosh is giving up a huge amount of MMA experience and has struggled in ADCC competition while Monson has excelled.  All 5 of his wins have come by submission with his sole loss coming by decision against Australian veteran Sam Nest in 2004.  A good finisher, Perosh has taken all of his submission wins in the first round but has never fought anyone as remotely accomplished or talented as Monson.  Heavily tattooed, politically active veteran Monson could be in line for a UFC heavyweight title shot with an impressive win here.  Riding a 15-fight winning streak, Monson hasn’t lost in four years.  He won’t lose here.  With his improved boxing and blend of BJJ and wrestling that forms a dominating grappling hybrid, Monson is a very, very good fighter.  His height can be a problem since at 5’9” he was having trouble with the lanky but sloppy Marcio Cruz at UFC 59 but still pulled off a deserved decision win.  Monson will be keen to show off his striking but this fight is going to the ground sooner or later.  Perosh will be an awkward, stubborn opponent on the mat and Monson may not finish him like he did the one dimensional Branden Lee Hinkle at UFC 57 but Monson should win the striking exchanges and do more than enough on the ground to take this one.

PREDICTION: Monson by decision.

Gilbert Aldana vs. Cheik Kongo

Monson and Perosh may be fighting on the ground but Aldana and Kongo have few mat skills between them and this one should be decided on their feet, inside the first round.  Aldana (5-1) is the epitome of a rugged brawler, a wild-swinging slugger with little regard to technique or his own safety.  His chaotic UFC debut came at UFC 57 in February against Paul Buentello and Aldana showed a good chin and tremendous heart to keep coming back for more punishment after being hurt in the first twenty seconds and bashed repeatedly with punches and high kicks.  Bleeding and exhausted, Aldana was finally stopped midway through the second round as Buentello fumbled around looking for submissions before opting to throw a few more punches.  Aldana’s bravery and aggressive style (his five wins all came by stoppage in a combined 3:33 on the Arizona Rage in the Cage circuit) ensured he’d be called back but with his approach and skill level he could be headed towards another defeat here.

Tall and long-limbed French kickboxer Kongo (7-2-1) could have the perfect style to exploit Aldana’s furious mauling.  Busy with low, mid and high kicks and long arms that throw effective, powerful jabs, Kongo should have a winning North American debut.  He lacks stamina and his ground skills are very suspect but neither should be required for this fight.  Kongo has only lost to a pair of very accomplished Dutch strikers in Gilbert Yvel and Rodney Faverus, either of whom would likely destroy the raw Aldana.  Kongo gave Yvel some real trouble on their feet early on and seemed to lose mainly because of his total lack of stamina and an even more ineffective ground game than Yvel.  He went the distance with Faverus and in his five year career has finished some good fighters.  He KO’ed enormous RINGS veteran Joop Kasteel in 2004 and stopped last December.  A regular on the Dutch circuit, Kongo will be stepping into a very different environment (this will be his first time fighting in a cage) but has all the tools to punish the impetuous Aldana.  He needs to look out for Aldana’s clubbing hooks and uppercuts in the clinch but by using his full range of kicks, punches and knees, the Frenchman can stop Aldana inside the first round.

PREDICTION: Kongo by TKO late in the first.

Predictions Re-cap: