There’s a quality undercard with some intriguing matches and overall, the show should be a good one.  Then again, the same could have been said about UFN4.  Considering this show was put together at the request of a UFC-insatiable Spike TV purely to help the first night ratings for their new Blade TV series, matchmaker Joe Silva has conjured up an impressive card.  Coming just four days after the TUF3 finale and less than two weeks before UFC 61, this looks like providing some real action, even if it ends up being completely overlooked by bigger shows with more hype behind them.

Line-up:

Chris Leben vs. Anderson Silva
Stephan Bonnar vs. Rashad Evans
Luke Cummo vs. Jonathan Goulet
Josh Koscheck vs. Dave Menne
Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves
Jorge Gurgel vs. Mark Hominick
Jason Lambert vs. Branden Lee Hinkle

June 28th
Hard Rock Hotel, Las Vegas

Note: Two additional fights have been added since this preview was completed.

Chris Leben vs. Anderson Silva

Finally, some six years after previous UFC owners SEG first expressed an interest in signing Anderson Silva (15-4), ‘the Spider’ makes his Las Vegas debut against TUF1 star Leben (15-1).  The winner will most likely get a middleweight title shot before the end of year and this has the potential to be a great fight.  While Leben is a straightforward brawler who stands flat-footed and throws some heavy hooks, Silva is far more fluid, athletic and inventive.  In April he made a third successful defence of his Cage Rage World Middleweight title by KO’ing tough Miletich striker Tony Fryklund with an amazing standing back elbow and knocked Yushin Okami silly with a unique sideways upkick from the guard at Rumble on the Rock 8 in January.  True, that one cost him a DQ loss in a fight he was dominating but is a measure of just how flexible and innovative Silva can be.  Leben is neither of those and while he has an excellent chin he just can’t match Silva for handspeed, reflexes or sheer variety of strikes.  Leben is the better wrestler and physically stronger but that was the case when Silva fought Curtis Stout at Cage Rage 14 too.  Silva defended very well on the ground and used his speed and power to blast Stout into unconsciousness with a heavy barrage of punches on the ground.  Silva is coming off some impressive wins (the Okami fiasco aside) while Leben is coming off a terribly uninspired showing against Luigi Fioravanti.  Leben dominated throughout but never came close to finishing his opponent and seemed to completely run out of ideas very early on.  It was a far cry from his excellent showings against Jorge Rivera (104 second TKO) or Edwin Dewees (first round armbar) and was hopefully an aberration because he will need a career performance to beat Silva.  The Muay Thai stylist has fought and beaten better opposition, though Leben finished Rivera quicker than Silva did, and the American would struggle against several of the fighters Silva has dominated with Lee Murray, Jeremy Horn, Stout and Fryklund all springing immediately to mind.

Silva is simply the better fighter.  Leben’s long experience of training with Team Quest and current camp AMC Pankration mean he’s no stranger to people who can develop effective, winning gameplans and he needs to pressure Silva right from the outset.  Murray and Rivera were unable to dictate the pace of their fights with the Brazilian and he put on a pair of fascinating displays of Muay Thai influenced artistry.  Leben needs to take him down, keep him down and do real damage on the ground because Silva has matured into a skilled defensive fighter on the mat and anything less than an all-out ground n’ pound assault just won’t be enough to control and subdue him.  Leben should be able to at least push Silva in the early stages but sooner or later, Silva will start landing his kicks, knees, punches and elbows and as he showed in his recent Cage Rage appearances, Silva is a clinical finisher.  Leben has never been stopped (apart from a cut suffered during his TUF1 fight with Kenny Florian) but Silva can, and should be, the first.  A dazzling performance in a high profile match on a live TV special seen by at least four times more people than watch even the biggest pay-per-view events will be just what Silva needs to get himself on the fast-track to a fascinating title match with Rich Franklin.  Expect him to deliver exactly that.

PREDICTION: Silva by TKO late in the second round.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Rashad Evans

The judges had better be alert during this one because Bonnar (9-2) and Evans (7-0) both have a tendency to need a judge’s verdict these days.  Bonnar did finish an overmatched James Irvin with a Kimura at UFN3 in January but his fights with Bobby Southworth (during the filming of TUF1), Forrest Griffin, Sam Hoger and Keith Jardine all went the distance.  Evans picked up an unwelcome reputation for boring victories over three rounds during TUF2 with wins over Tom Murphy (awful fight), Mike Whitehead (horrid fight) and Jardine (a decent match).  Since then he’s beaten Brad Imes, in a cracking high-energy, low-skills brawl and Hoger, both by split decision.  Bonnar was somewhat lucky to get the verdict in close fights with Southworth and Jardine but the Griffin decision could conceivably have gone his way and despite gassing badly in the second round, he earned his win over Hoger.  Still looking for a really big fight, Bonnar has instead been stuck with lower profile 205 pounders far from title contention and at times, he’s struggled.  Evans, a gifted and accomplished freestyle wrestler in college is a tough match stylistically but Bonnar generally finds a way to win and should do so here.  Evans is a much neater striker with good boxing skills but can’t match Bonnar for sheer workrate.  His relentless pressure, good chin and strange ability to keep fighting at a tremendous pace even when his suspect stamina lets him down yet again are his main advantages.  He struggled badly at times with Jardine while Evans clearly won his TUF2 semi-final match with Jardine.  On the other hand, Evans had a much harder struggle with Hoger and quickly ran out of ideas.  Bonnar is more experienced and more resourceful than his capable, but uninspiring opponent.  He has some good submission skills but it’s more likely he will take this one by using his high pressure striking, stopping Evans from settling into any kind of rhythm, and taking a close decision win.

PREDICTION: Bonnar by decision.

Luke Cummo vs. Jonathan Goulet

Surprise TUF2 star Cummo (4-3) was quietly awarded the same ‘winner’s contract’ as Joe Stevenson after their cracking fight at last November’s live finale and after winning a sadly untelevised stand-up battle with Jason Von Flue at UFN4, returns for a higher profile clash with Canada’s Goulet (15-6).  Cummo’s neat Muay Thai striking style is always great to watch and the way he stubbornly resisted Stevenson on the ground in their near-classic won the World’s Most Dangerous Geek plenty of fans.  A student of Matt Serra, New Jersey based Cummo has much-underrated BJJ skills to complement his striking.  Goulet’s last UFC outing was memorable for very different reasons.  He walked immediately onto a short right hand from Duane Ludwig that ended their fight in an incredible 11 seconds that would have been even faster if the referee had called for the bell quicker.  Clearly Goulet was finished from the moment the punch landed and he pitched following, falling to his knees with his face hitting the ground.  That wasn’t the first time he’d lost quickly either, going just 12 seconds with ordinary Hawaiian Kaipo Kalama and with his questionable chin and Cummo’s striking prowess, this could be a quick one.  Cummo has power, incredible stamina and great technique.  His TUF2 KO of Sam Morgan was just stunning and if he lands a knee like that against Goulet, the Canadian will be hitting the ground, and hard.  Goulet has more experience and is an explosive striker himself, recording three wins inside 30 seconds but Cummo should win this fight, most likely with another highlight reel knockout.

PREDICTION: Cummo by KO late in the first.

Josh Koscheck vs. Dave Menne

This one has the potential to be very, very boring.  It could feature some great wrestling but if Menne’s (39-13-2) last two fights are anything to go by this could be very, very bad.  He dropped a boring decision to Jake Shields during the Rumble on the Rock tournament in January and won an even more boring fight with Alex Reid at Cage Rage 16.  The Minnesota based veteran simply couldn’t get going against the talented Shields and against Reid opted for a single-minded gameplan of repeatedly taking the dangerous English striker down and controlling him.  He did that effectively for the full three rounds but his cautious, dull gameplan won him few fans in the UK.  And Koscheck (5-1) memorably had a sleep inducing match during TUF1, decisioning bitter rival Chris Leben in one of the reality show’s most watched, and most boring fights ever.  Constantly adding to his excellent wrestling skills at San Jose’s American Kickboxing Academy, Koscheck has improved a great deal since then but in a tough fight he still relies heavily on wrestling and controlling his opponents.  That was working well for him at UFN2 until he dove straight into a perfectly timed Drew Fickett knee late in the third round that left him open to a rear naked choke for his first ‘official’ loss.  Moving up to middleweight should be little problem for Koscheck as he cut so much weight to make 170 but Menne has fought at this weight for far longer, and against some high quality opposition.

This will be Menne’s first UFC appearance in almost four years, the last being his unforgettable 18 second loss to Phil Baroni at UFC 39 but this will be a tough fight for him.  Still in his early 30s, Menne has a lot of fights and injuries behind him.  Koscheck is younger, fresher and while much less experienced at applying it to MMA, his wrestling is far better.  Menne is a very good wrestler but Koscheck was a multiple All-American in college, has worked as a wrestling coach and beat the far more experienced Leben with little more than wrestling.  His striking has improved noticeably, and his submission skills were demonstrated to great effect at the first UFN event where he was all over Pete Spratt before applying a rear naked choke for the win.  Koscheck repeated the RNC finish in his latest match, with Ansar Chalangov at UFN4.  This is a very tough fight for Koscheck, but one he can win.  Menne is an incredibly tough fighter though, as he showed when giving TUF3 star Ed Herman a beating in their July 2005 match.  Unfortunately for Menne, an injury cost him that fight and he looks like losing this one too.  Koscheck probably can’t finish him and the old warhorse will push him hard all the way, but the younger man should take this.

PREDICTION: Koscheck by decision.

Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves

Koscheck’s AKA teammate Fitch (10-2) is another excellent college wrestler and his match with Thiago ‘Pitbull’ Alves (8-2) pits two of North America’s most successful teams, and two of UFC’s most potential-packed welterweights against each other.  A member of the American Top Team, Alves is an aggressive striker with fast, accurate punches and a solid ground game.  Fitch has greatly improved his striking and submissions since joining AKA and is coming off a pair of impressive wins, a decision over experienced Minnesotan Brock Larson and a submission win over Team Quest fighter and TUF2 veteran Josh Burkman at UFN4.  Alves lost his UFC debut in a thriller with Spencer Fisher at UFN2 thanks to a slick triangle choke in a fight he was winning but bounced back with first round TKO wins over Ansar Chalangov and Derrick Noble at UFC 56 and 59.  Fitch has a clear edge in wrestling and he stood with gifted Canadian kickboxer Jeff Joslin and traded punches during their July 2005 war.  However, the American was more than a little lucky to walk away from that fight with the decision verdict.  Unusually for an ATT fighter, Alves has shown some BJJ weaknesses but there was a noticeable improvement in the Fisher fight as he escaped several first round submission attempts.  Chalangov and Noble never came close to submitting him as they were too busy trying to avoid his fists.  At this point in time Fitch may still be the better submission grappler and that may be the key to this fight.  Both have the stamina to press the action for the full three rounds but with Fitch being the better all-round grappler he should be able to control the pace of the fight and take the decision win in a hard, competitive fight.

PREDICTION: Fitch by decision.

Jorge Gurgel vs. Mark Hominick

Canada’s Hominick (10-5) got UFC 58’s USA vs. Canada pay-per-view off to a memorable start, stopping the heavily favoured Yves Edwards as the Lightweight division finally made its long overdue return.  A tightly controlled, energetic striker, Hominick is a very refined, very dangerous kickboxer, trained by the highly respected Shawn Tompkins.  A beautiful bodyshot was the beginning of the end for Edwards and the 23-year-old eventually trapped Edwards with a slowly set up triangle choke for a first round win.  Unfortunately for the Montreal based TKO regular, Hominick was himself triangled by Shooto rising star Hatsu Hioki at TKO 25.  His win over Edwards showed that his BJJ training with Jeff Curran has been paying off but Hioki proved it has a long way to go yet.  Gurgel (9-1) is a poor striker but has a truly excellent BJJ pedigree and has worked as Rich Franklin’s instructor for some years.  His stand-up skills, or lack of them, were evident during his only TUF2 fight, a very sloppy but exciting decision loss to Jason Von Flue.  Gurgel was hampered by a serious knee injury but if he can’t take Hominick down he will be lucky to last a round on his feet in this one.  The problem for Hominick is that Gurgel is far better on the ground than anyone the young Canadian has ever faced.  All nine of his professional wins have been by submission, his last four by guillotine choke and the only man to ‘officially’ beat him was leglock master Masakazu Imanari with, of course, a heel hook in their 2003 fight in ZST.  Older than Hominick and working on some badly battered knees, Gurgel will struggle until he can find a way to subdue or neutralise his opponent’s standing.  Once on the ground Gurgel should find a way to finish this with a submission in his first ‘real’ UFC match.  He will have to take some punishment along the way and this could be the most competitive fight of the night but Gurgel can win it.

PREDICTION: Gurgel by submission early in the third.

Jason Lambert vs. Branden Lee Hinkle

Currently 2-0 in UFC after quickly tapping out TUF2 fighter Rob MacDonald at UFC 58 and bashing Terry Martin at UFC 59, Lambert (21-5) faces veteran wrestler Hinkle (12-7).  Like Lambert Hinkle has fought twice for Zuffa, beating up the useless Sean Gannon in a UFC 55 fiasco that is best left forgotten by everyone involved and being dominated and choked out by Jeff Monson at UFC 57.  A good wrestler with heavy hands, Lambert has real advantages in striking and submissions.  Hinkle remains a fairly unreconstructed Hammer House fighter, almost totally reliant on wrestling and ground n’ pound.  Admittedly his wrestling is of a very high calibre, with All-American accolades during his college days.  Monson exposed his limitations against submissions and even against the portly, unprepared, hopelessly and even dangerously mismatched Gannon, Hinkle somehow didn’t look particularly impressive.  He’s been around since 1998 and has used his power, aggression and wrestling to score wins over Masanori Suda, Travis Fulton, Jorge Rivera, Daisuke Watanabe and Tom Sauer but Lambert is younger, more well-rounded and is riding a 7-fight winning streak.  He’s beaten some good fighters and has been a regular on the higher end of KOTC and WEC cards.  He was fortunate to get a decision over Marvin Eastman last May but has pounded out Matt Horwich and KO’ed Travis Wiuff.  The pressure will be on Hinkle in particular as a loss here would likely lead to the company dropping him but Lambert is the fighter on the upward curve of his career.  Hinkle may dominate the wrestling early, but look Lambert to fight back and stop Hinkle with a barrage of punches somewhere in the second round.

PREDICTION: Lambert by TKO late in the second.

Predictions Re-cap:

Stephan Bonnar DEC3 Rashad Evans
Anderson Silva TKO2 Chris Leben
Luke Cummo KO1 Jonathan Goulet
Josh Koscheck DEC3 Dave Menne
Jon Fitch DEC3 Thiago Alves
Jorge Gurgel SUB1 Mark Hominick
Jason Lambert TKO2 Branden Lee Hinkle