As with previous TUF Finales plenty of the show’s contestants are on the undercard, alongside the ‘official’ main event where Kenny Florian takes on Sam Stout.  Oddly, intriguing fights with current personalities like Ross Pointon (fighting Rory Singer) and Matt Hamill (fighting Jesse Forbes) are relegated to the untelevised undercard while efficient but dull TUF2 fighter Keith Jardine is scheduled for the opening TV match against newcomer Wilson Gouveia but the Stout-Florian match and the two finals should provide plenty of action.  Any prospective contestants for future TUF seasons, and they have at least five more contractually agreed on, would do well to take note of some of the TUF3 names absent from the undercard.  No Tait Fletcher, no Kristian Rothermael and no Noah Inhofer.  Clearly, saying “no” to Dana White or quitting the show under ridiculous circumstances are not good for your long term prospects with Zuffa.

Line-up:

Light-Heavyweight Final: Michael Bisping vs. Josh Haynes
Middleweight Final: Ed Herman vs. Kendall Grove
Kenny Florian vs. Sam Stout
Keith Jardine vs. Wilson Gouveia
Ross Pointon vs. Rory Singer
Danny Abbadi vs. Kalib Starnes
Luigi Fioravanti vs. Solomon Hutcherson
Jesse Forbes vs. Matt Hamill
Wes Combs vs. Mike Nickels

June 24th
Hard Rock, Las Vegas

Light-Heavyweight Final: Michael Bisping vs. Josh Haynes

“Anything can happen in a fight” may be one of the sport’s truer clichés but its still hard to see how Haynes (7-4), a rugged, short-armed, undersized brawler with some decent defensive instincts on the mat but little wrestling skill, or striking skill for that matter, can stop the unbeaten Bisping (10-0) from winning the Light Heavyweight contract.  Like Joe Riggs, Haynes started out as a blubbery 300-pounder and has changed so much its hard to tell much from his early fights.  Still, as recently as July 2005 he dropped a decision to an over-the-hill Shonie Carter and was lucky to take a decision over Tait Fletcher during TUF3 without needing a third and deciding round.  Haynes had trouble with Fletcher’s jabs and knees, an ominous sign when he’s facing a striker with far more power and technique than Joe Rogan’s training partner.  Haynes floored Fletcher in the second round of an exciting, messy fight but was caught with a triangle choke late in the round and looked on the verge of defeat.  With everyone expecting a third round, the boxing-obsessed judges seemed to feel a brief knockdown overrode Fletcher almost finishing him with a submission and handed Haynes the win.  In his semi-final Haynes defended well after being taken down very quickly by Jesse Forbes and even managed some brief reversals in a surprisingly competitive battle on the ground.  Forbes had numerous chances to put Haynes away with rear naked chokes but Haynes survived and Forbes gassed out.  Seizing Forbes’ exposed head on a takedown attempt early in the second round, Haynes won the fight with a guillotine choke.  Don’t expect him to repeat the trick here.

Insiders tipped Bisping to walk through the competition on his way to the final and aside from a big right hand by friend and previous victim Ross Pointon, that’s effectively what he did.  Bisping destroyed an out-of-shape Kristian Rothermael, battering him to defeat early in the series and unleashed a beautiful flying knee that ended the Pointon fight in the semi-final.  Pointon survived a little longer but the sickening crack of that knee landing and Bisping’s characteristically merciless barrage of punches and knees afterwards finished things in style.  Always improving, Bisping hasn’t gone beyond the first round of an MMA fight since his second war with rugged slugger Mark Epstein at Cage Rage 9 in November 2004.  Polishing his ground game with the likes of Tito Ortiz and Dean Lister, not to mention TUF rival Matt Hamill, and working regularly with Mario ‘Sukata’ Neto at Liverpool’s Wolfslair Gym, Bisping has improved massively since that Epstein fight.  And that itself was a big improvement on his first match with the gruesomely featured, iron-chinned brawler four months earlier.  Bisping was very impressive in defence of his Cage Warriors Light Heavyweight title, smashing the rugged Miika Mehmet, the slippery Jakob Lovstad and catching Pointon with a slick armbar after being bundled to the ground by the Stoke-on-Trent man’s sheer aggression.  If Zuffa had wanted to go out and find a drawing card for the UK (and they clearly did with a show apparently planned for England in March 2007) then Bisping was the obvious choice.  Look for him to take Haynes apart in style, continuing his run of first round stoppage wins, most likely by using jabs, low kicks and knees to set up his shorter, less talented opponent for a final combination of brutal, relentless punches by the fence, just as he did with Mehmet and Pointon in their second match.

Middleweight Final: Ed Herman vs. Kendall Grove

Like Bisping, ‘Short Fuse’ Herman (10-3) was widely expected to make the finals of this series.  6’ 6” Hawaiian Grove (5-3) was not.  An inconsistent fighter, Grove was KO’ed in 68 seconds by much shorter Team Oyama product Hector Ramirez in May 2005 and even managed to get choked out by Savant Young, a powerful but terribly limited fighter a full foot shorter than him, in a mere two minutes a few weeks earlier.  His first career loss, to Joe Riggs, saw Grove just brutally taken apart with a violent barrage of elbows on the ground that left him unconscious 3:09 into the first round of their May 2004 fight.  Grove, who has continued training with Tito Ortiz since the series ended, looked impressive beating Ross Pointon with a rear naked choke and picked Kalib Starnes apart in an exciting semi-final.  Using his height and reach advantages, Grove showed off some varied striking and a finishing instinct in both fights and anyone going purely on the evidence of their performances during TUF3 would pick the much-improved Grove as the favourite to win the contract.  But things could be a little more complicated.

An early favourite, Herman seemed to spend too much time drinking and complaining about not being picked by Tito and his performances fell flat based on existing expectations and his silly boasting.  Shooting his mouth off about the incredible ground n’ pound skills he possessed, Herman looked a little silly when his G n’ P was exposed as being slow and pedestrian in his win over inexperienced striker Danny Abbadi.  True, Herman finished him with a nice armbar but Abbadi basically gave him the arm and anyone with rudimentary submission training would have been able to finish it.  Herman was better against Rory Singer in the semi-final but for all the talk of him smashing Singer, very few of his punches or elbows on the ground were either hard or accurate.  Once again, Herman ended it with a submission but like Abbadi, Singer just gave up the position and Herman was there to pounce on it.  His striking may not have been up to much, and Abbadi rocked him early too, but Herman’s wrestling was very, very good.  A long time member of Team Quest and a regular on their Sportfight events, Herman has benefited from excellent training in his career.  Herman has shown some good G n’ P skills in his Sportfight matches and performed very well before being caught with an arm triangle by the hugely talented Kazuo Misaki in his only Pancrase appearance in July 2004.

Whoever forces their opponent into their kind of fight will take this one.  Grove’s wrestling is his weak point and while Herman is competent on his feet, he will have real trouble with Grove’s long limbs and busy hands and feet.  Herman has fought more, and also faced far better opposition.  He’s been in there with Joe Doerksen (a triangle choke loss) and Dave Menne (a fight where he struggled until injury forced Menne’s corner to throw in the towel) and of course, Misaki.  More well-rounded than Grove, even if little of what he does is genuinely spectacular, there’s a reason why Herman was expected to make the final right from the outset.  Look for him to show that with an effective dismantling of Grove on the ground.  All Herman really needs is enough takedowns to control the action and throw enough punches, hammerfists and elbows to keep the fight from being restarted and he should grind out a decision win.

Kenny Florian vs. Sam Stout

Nominally the main event, this lightweight match will apparently determine one of the top contenders for the returning (after a long overdue absence) UFC 155-pound title.  Finally competing in his natural weight division, gifted Boston area BJJ black belt Florian (3-2) has a very, very difficult task ahead of him in Canada’s Stout (9-1-1).  Originally lined up for UFC 58 in March as part of the USA vs. Canada series, Florian pulled out with an injury and Spencer Fisher stepped in, having cut an insane amount of weight.  Fisher took the first round and was the better grappler, but Stout, a former kickboxer controlled the second and third rounds with his striking, earning a split decision win.  Stout is coming off a close decision win over Canadian veteran Donald Ouimet, a knockout in a rematch four months later, and that win over Fisher.  If the well-rounded Fisher had such trouble with Stout’s kicking and punching then Florian surely will too.  True he beat the insufferable Kit Cope last November and did will in clinching and avoiding his heavy strikes but Cope is little more than noisy one-trick pony.  Stout, still just 21 years old, has developed into an extremely promising fighter.  A win over TUF1 veteran Florian is just what he needs and he should get it.  Look for Stout to pick Florian apart on their feet and stop him late in the second round to put himself firmly in the Lightweight title picture.

Keith Jardine vs. Wilson Gouveia

TUF2 veteran Jardine (10-2-1) returns after dropping a close and very controversial decision to TUF1 star Stephan Bonnar in the main event of April’s abysmal Ultimate Fight Night 4.  A very capable fighter from an excellent camp (Jackson’s Submission Fighting in New Mexico), Jardine performed shockingly well in the Bonnar fight.  More controlled and poised than his ragged opponent, Jardine seemed to have done enough to win and he should bounce back with a victory here.  American Top Team fighter Gouveia (6-3) certainly has talent but has fought infrequently and his record shows some worrying signs.  Losing to the tough but painfully limited Ron Faircloth and being KO’ed by TUF3 contestant Rory Singer indicate Gouveia may struggle in this fight.  A quality grappler, Gouveia is a decent opponent but Jardien should be able to control the fight with his efficient punching, heavy low kicks, good wrestling and defence on the ground.  It may not be exciting, which begs the question of why exactly this is scheduled to air on the live special when intriguing fights involving two of TUF3’s most memorable characters in Ross Pointon and Matt Hamill are on the untelevised undercard, but Jardine should get the win, probably by decision.  That would add Gouveia’s name to a list of defeated opponents that include Mike Whitehead, Kerry Schall, Arman Gambaryn and Amir Rahnavardi and maintain Jardine’s position at the middle of the UFC Light Heavyweight roster.

Ross Pointon vs. Rory Singer

If the fight between Ross Pointon (4-6) and Rory Singer (8-5) comes down to heart and a will to win, then England’s ‘Gladiator’ will give the constantly farting, clean-freak male nurse a proper beating.  Clearly one of TUF 3’s greatest characters, likeable brawler Pointon made some important fans (most notably Dana White) with his personality and attitude.  His fighting may seem limited to swinging for the fences but Pointon actually has more than just aggression and power.  He has a good chin and has shown some good submission defence in the past.  At Cage Warriors: Strike Force 2 last July, Pointon dominated early before eventually losing to Thomas Valentin’s Kimura after managing to power or slip out of numerous tight looking armbars.  Pointon’s stamina and one-dimensional style could be problems but he’s a very dangerous opponent, as he showed when blasting Michael Bisping with a huge right hand early in their TUF semi-final.  He gave the lanky Kendall Grove little trouble in his first TUF fight and will face a similar physical disadvantage against Singer in this one.  Equipped with all the necessary tools, Singer is a good, experienced fighter.  He’s beaten Wilson Gouveia and gone the distance with Pride veteran Daijiro Matsui.  Patient with a good defence, strong chin and some neat grappling skills, Singer could be a difficult match for Pointon stylistically.  True, Ed Herman broke his spirit and Singer meekly rolled over for an inviting rear naked choke opportunity that ended their TUF semi-final but Singer weathered an early storm to knock Solomon Hutcherson even more senseless than usual earlier in the series.  Pointon will of course try and keep this standing but Singer’s long limbs could make it difficult for him to get close enough to throw his trademark heavy right hooks.  Singer needs to redeem himself after the Herman humiliation and he can do that here by catching Pointon with a sneaky submission in the second half of what could be a fascinating fight.  With Pointon’s style and attitude this should be a great brawl early on really should be on the main TV broadcast but for some strange reason, the bland Kenny Florian and the dull Keith Jardine take precedence.

Danny Abbadi vs. Kalib Starnes

Jordanian born, Florida based striker Danny Abaddi (2-1) has a lot to prove after being thoroughly dominated by a not-particularly impressive Ed Herman during their TUF3 fight.  It wasn’t so much the way Herman got through with shots on the ground, it was Abaddi’s bizarre decision to clinch in the first place with a far better wrestler, and the way he so obviously gave Herman his arm for the decisive armbar that saw him deservedly labelled a fighter with a lot of work ahead of him before he even hit the level of ‘mediocre’.  His opponent, and former TUF housemate, for this middleweight match, Kalib Starnes (6-0-1) was far more impressive during the series and will be heavily favoured to give the brash young Taekwondo teacher a good kicking here.  Starnes used his wrestling and ground game to batter one-dimensional striker Mike Stine in the first fight of the series and gave Kendall Grove a cracking struggle in the semi-final.  Unfortunately for him, some suspect cardio, an existing rib injury and Grove’s excellent body shots and kicks all led to him quitting early in the third round of an exciting fight.  Much better than Abbadi on the ground, more experienced, and a better striker, Starnes will take this one easily, most likely by submission.

Luigi Fioravanti vs. Solomon Hutcherson

At middleweight, irritatingly charismatic, gap-toothed brawler and founder member of the utterly juvenile ‘Team Dagger’, Solomon Hutcherson (6-2) faces American Top Team middleweight Luigi Fioravanti (7-1).  An aggressive but not particularly skilled fighter, either on his feet or on the ground, Hutcherson is a decent wrestler with some raw ground n’ pound but poor submission skills.  The way he completely fell apart from a lazy Rory Singer high kick suggests his chin is below par and he was KO’ed by the far superior Jorge Rivera in 2003.  Fioravanti is an aggressive, wild brawler with a lot to make up for.  His UFC debut helped make Ultimate Fight Night 4 a complete disaster.  A horribly boring fight that all but ruined Chris Leben’s pretensions at title contention saw Fioravanti dominated in the dullest of ways throughout the fight before dropping a unanimous decision.  More well-rounded than Hutcherson, Fioravanti may take this to the ground and look for submissions.  If so, Hutcherson could be in real trouble.  On their feet it should a messy, exciting battle either man can win.  I’m picking Fioravanti in the second.

Jesse Forbes vs. Matt Hamill

Robbed of a chance at the TUF3 semi-finals through injury, Deaflympics medallist and hopeful for the 2008 Olympics in Greco-Roman wrestling, Matt Hamill (2-0) takes on the repeatedly disappointing Jesse Forbes (2-1) in a fight that should feature some quality wrestling if nothing else.  A former Junior College All-American, the undisciplined, one-dimensional Forbes was dominating Noah Inhofer in their TUF fight before getting caught with an armbar he should have seen coming.  Gifted another chance by Noah’s monumentally stupid decision to leave the house, Forbes returned for a semi-final showdown with short-armed, blue-haired slugger Josh Haynes.  Dominating the first round, Forbes failed to put Haynes away despite repeated rear naked choke attempts.  Like everyone else on Team Shamrock, Forbes quickly gassed and was easy pickings for a simple guillotine off a careless takedown attempt early in the second.  Fighting Mike Nickels with only one good arm, a decent jab and little boxing talent or practice, Hamill still bashed the “ferocious streetfighter” for a gruelling two round unanimous decision.  Fully healthy, look for Hamill to use his superior wrestling, relentless aggression and strikes on the ground to slowly wear down Forbes for a late TKO win.

Wes Combs vs. Mike Nickels

Tattoo artist and BJJ practitioner Mike Nickels (3-1) looked atrocious in his TUF3 match with Matt Hamill.  Displaying the standing technique of a frightened baby deer, Nickels had no answer for Hamill’s constant pressure and surprisingly good left jabs.  Ignoring Ken Shamrock’s repeated pleas to “knee, knee, knee, knee”, Nickels failed to take advantage of Hamill’s low-slung hands during several close exchanges.  A poor wrestler, Nickels’ only real hope is his submissions.  His opponent Wes ‘the Soldier’ Combs (12-0) needs only to keep the fight standing to take this since its almost impossible to imagine a professional fighter with a more feeble stand-up arsenal than Nickels.  In fact, Combs, a KOTC regular has taken 9 wins by KO or TKO and none of his last ten fights have gone beyond the 2:40 mark.  If Nickels can’t take him down quickly he will be in serious trouble.  Look for Combs to knock Nickels out in the first round.

Predictions Re-cap:

Michael Bisping TKO1 Josh Haynes
Ed Herman DEC3 Kendall Grove
Sam Stout TKO2 Kenny Florian
Keith Jardine DEC3 Wilson Gouveia
Rory Singer SUB2 Ross Pointon
Kalib Starnes SUB1 Danny Abbadi
Luigi Fioravanti TKO2 Solomon Hutcherson
Matt Hamill TKO3 Jesse Forbes
Wes Combs KO1 Mike Nickels