Bushido is also on an enviable run of high quality events with instalments 7, 8 and 10 all high quality shows and number 9 running away with the Kakutougi.info ‘Show of the Year’ award.  Obviously much more confident in Bushido’s chances of success, this event also sees them take the leap to the Saitama Super Arena for the first round of this year’s Welterweight (183 pound) Grand Prix.  Titleholder Dan Henderson will apparently be slotted into the second round, leaving seven tournament matches (plus four non-tournament bouts) that feature an attractive mix of established fighters and four first timers.  An excellent card from top to bottom with only a couple of fights that look dull, this should extend the streak of critically acclaimed Bushidos.  Whether it will pull a big crowd without Takanori Gomi is another matter and a sellout seems very unlikely but it should still be the best attended Bushido yet and inside the ropes, l;ooks like being an overwhelming success.

Line-up:

Jason Black vs. Eoh Won Jim
Welterweight Grand Prix: Murilo Bustamante vs. Amar Suloev
Welterweight Grand Prix: Paulo Filho vs. Gregory Bouchelaghem
Welterweight Grand Prix: Ryo Chonan vs. Joey Villasenor
Welterweight Grand Prix: Makoto Takimoto vs. Gegard Mousasi
Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. Marcus Aurelio
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Charles Bennett
Hayato Sakurai vs. Olaf Alfonso
Welterweight Grand Prix: Akihiro Gono vs. Hector Lombard
Welterweight Grand Prix: Denis Kang vs. Murilo Rua
Welterweight Grand Prix: Phil Baroni vs. Kazuo Misaki

Saitama Super Arena, Tokyo
June 4th

Jason Black vs. Eoh Won Jim

Former internet darling and Miletich fighter Black (19-1-1) may have lost his unbeaten record thanks to a freak elbow injury in February but he finally gets his chance to shine on the big stage after toiling for years on the Extreme Challenge circuit and a myriad of other smaller shows.  Almost the prototypical Miletich product, Black is a gifted fighter, a relentless wrestler, good striker and talented with submissions.  He’s beaten some accomplished people too, holding wins over Ivan Menjivar and John Alessio.  Unfortunately for Black, he’s also as bland as he is efficient.  That may help to explain why the major promotions ignored him for so long despite his Miletich connections.  A ‘boring’ reputation is awfully difficult to shake off but this is his big opportunity to dump that rather justified reputation, and win or lose, he needs to be active and aggressive in this fight.

Eoh Won Jim (1-1-1) is obviously giving up a great deal of experience.  A very talented amateur wrestler who hits hard but lacks any refined MMA technique beyond his wrestling, the South Korean will have a tough time with Black.  He bashed TAISHO to defeat with punches in his DEEP debut in July 2005 and followed that up with a draw against veteran Jutaro Nakao.  He lost his last fight by KO to Seichi Ikemoto, a fighter Yves Edwards comfortably handled at Bushido 10.  This one is likely to hit the mat pretty quickly and given their styles, end up a long, most likely dull fight.  Won is the better wrestler but Black has some good submission skills.  Nakao couldn’t tap the South Korean out and neither will Black, but if he gets enough openings to go for submissions, he can eke out a close decision win based on his attempts to finish the fight.

PREDICTION: Black by decision after two rounds.

Welterweight Grand Prix: Murilo Bustamante vs. Amar Suloev

Ageing Brazilian Top Team veteran Bustamante (12-5-1) squares off against Armenian born, Russian based wrestler/kickboxer Suloev (20-5) in what looks to be a fascinating match.  Suloev is a gifted kickboxer with excellent takedown defence who has gone 7-1 since his mini-war with Phil Baroni at UFC 37 almost four years ago.  He had Baroni in real trouble early with his fast, precise punches and knees before the New Yorker turned it around with a barrage of vicious punches against the fence.  Suloev bashed a submission out of Yushin Okami and battered the smaller Din Thomas at Antonio Inoki’s New Year’s 2003 fiasco before making his Pride: Bushido debut with a horribly dull split decision win over Dean Lister.  That Bushido 4 disaster saw Lister cope very well with Suloev’s vaunted stand-up skills while Suloev landed some nice leg kicks and blocked several takedown attempts.  Unfortunately both men spent most of the fight standing, posturing and threatening without really doing anything worthwhile.  Suloev was, somewhat surprisingly, back at Bushido 6, losing by armbar to one of Bustamante’s BTT teammates Paulo Filho.  Suloev showed off some excellent leg kicks before being taken down and armbarred.  Suloev bounced back a few months later with a fast KO win over French battler Damien Riccio in Russia.  In his most recent fight he cruelly destroyed unbeaten Englishman James E. Nicolle at Cage Rage 16.  An absolutely masterful display of striking prowess that featured great combinations to head and body saw him annihilate Nicolle so badly during the first round his corner refused to let him come out for the second.

Like Hayato Sakurai who also fights on this show, Bustamante had a great 2005.  Bouncing back from three straight losses in 2003/04, the old man beat Ryuta Sakurai by decision at Bushido 6 and put in a great performance during Bushido 9’s welterweight tournament.  Looking more impressive than he had in a couple of years, Bustamante dominated and armbarred Masanori Suda and then battered Ikuhisa Minowa, a former training partner, to earn a spot in the final.  Aggressively attacking with fists and feet as well as using his excellent grappling, Bustamante lined himself up for a long-awaited New Year’s Eve rematch with Dan Henderson that would decide the newly created Bushido Welterweight crown.  Bustamante had been quickly and slightly controversially (due to an accidental clash of heads) KO’ed by Henderson in 2003.  Henderson took a split decision after two hard, close rounds in the rematch.  Bustamante controlled the majority of the fight, taking Henderson down frequently in the first and trying to stomp and kick the American whenever he was on his back.  Henderson opened the second round swinging.  A couple of minutes into the round Henderson countered a stiff punch from the Brazilian with a couple of huge right hands, badly hurting Bustamante and catching him with a knee to the face on the way down.  Henderson immediately tried to follow up with punches but even when dazed, Bustamante has a great defence.  Switching his attention to kneeing his opponent in the head, Henderson knocked Bustamante down again a little later, but again couldn’t finish him off.  Those two knockdowns rightly swung the fight Henderson’s way for two of the three judges.

With his upright amateur boxing style Bustamante could have serious trouble with Suloev’s more varied, kickboxing style.  Holding himself up so straight and looking to jab, Bustamante leaves himself open to the kind of drilling bodyshots Suloev is adept at.  Clearly Bustamante is a more skilled grappler but Suloev has submission skills of his own.  He can be outwrestled, and as Filho demonstrated, submitted but I don’t think that is going to happen.  Suloev has strong takedown defence and given their respective striking styles, can hurt Bustamante on their feet.  The Brazilian likes to show off his striking and has become much more aggressive in recent years but that would be a very bad strategy in this fight.  He also doesn’t have the sheer physical strength and explosiveness with takedowns as Filho and those are attributes he will need to get Suloev off his feet.  Look for Suloev to gain a measure of revenge against BTT by finishing one of it’s top stars with a heavy barrage of shots late in the opening round.

PREDICTION: Suloev by TKO late in the first.

Welterweight Grand Prix: Paulo Filho vs. Gregory Bouchelaghem

Originally set to face fast improving South Korean Judoka Yoon Dong Sik, it now looks as though the hugely skilled but detestably boring Filho (11-0) will instead be meeting lanky Frenchman Bouchelaghem (5-2).  Although not officially announced at the time of writing, Bouchelaghem was strongly rumoured to be a part of this tournament anyway and a number of very reliable sources claim he is replacing the injured Dong.  Stepping in at short notice against one of the tournament’s favourites is a huge task, particularly for his Japanese debut, but Bouchelaghem is one of Europe’s most talented 185 pounders.  The Frenchman has some fast, powerful low kicks, a solid ground game and plenty of stamina.  Patiently effective and fundamentally sound on the mat, Bouchelaghem has choked out TUF3 contestant Ross Pointon and Mark Weir.  He was all over Matt Ewin in their May 2004 epic until eventually tiring and being pounded to defeat midway through the fourth round.  Bouchelaghem also owns a well-deserved November 2005 decision win over Andrei Semenov.  The Frenchman is no stranger to Filho’s Brazilian Top Team either as he’s coming off a split decision loss to BTT member Roan ‘Jucao’ Carneiro in March.  Bouchelaghem opened that fight with some excellent low kicks but spent most of the first round on his back.  Active with strikes from the bottom, Bouchelaghem made things difficult for Carneiro, even when the Brazilian had a sidemount.  Bouchelaghem also covered up well to block the Brazilian’s punches.  The Frenchman landed a lovely high kick early in the second that hurt Carneiro but had real trouble stopping takedowns.  That made the difference in the Carneiro fight and will probably be an insurmountable problem for him against Filho.

Despite appearances, Filho IS capable of winning fights inside the distance.  And he’s finished some very good fighters with armbars (Amar Suloev at Bushido 6 and Ryuta Sakurai at Bushido 9) but with six of his victories coming by decision, and most of them dull, Filho is the epitome of a hugely talented fighter who fails to understand he needs to entertain the audience.  In his defence, he seems to try a little, mostly by trying to turn every one of his seemingly unstoppable takedown attempts into a huge slam, but once he hits the floor, the boredom sets in.  His most recent win over Murilo Rua at Bushido 10 was the perfect example.  Filho thoroughly dominated but made no serious effort to finish the fight and was content purely with controlling his opponent.  Still, Filho is a very effective fighter with wins over Ikuhisa Minowa, Yuki Kondo, Akira Shoji and Daijiro Matsui.  It would be a major shocker if he didn’t beat Bouchelaghem.  Very active defensively, Bouchelaghem should last the distance, going down to a very clear decision defeat.

PREDICTION: Filho by decision after two rounds.

Welterweight Grand Prix: Ryo Chonan vs. Joey Villasenor

A long reigning KOTC champion and teammate of Diego Sanchez, the New Mexico based Villasenor (21-3) finally gets his big break.  Currently riding a superb 15-fight winning streak, Villasenor has more than earned his place in this tournament.  His most recent win, in his DEEP debut against Yuya Shirai was lacklustre stuff, but Villasenor has put in enough high-quality performances to make him a dangerous opponent for Chonan (11-6) and his suspect chin.  Fast, athletic and a merciless striker, Villasenor has beaten a number of good fighters, usually with his fists.  Jorge Santiago, Brendan Seguin, Jorge Ortiz and Art Santore have all lost to ‘the Dreamsmasher’.  Chonan is undoubtedly a major step up in class for Villasenor but if the fish-faced Japanese fighter comes out swinging like he did against Phil Baroni and Dan Henderson the result could be very similar.  Villasenor has genuine power, likes to brawl and can take a shot.

Chonan has had some great results, beating Daijiro Matsui, Carlos Newton, Anderson Silva, Roan Carneiro and Antonio Schembri but came up short when put in with a pair of big punchers in Baroni and Henderson.  The Newton and Silva fights were crackers where Chonan showed off his impressive striking, sheer toughness (surviving what looked like a perfect Newton armbar) and creativity (that unforgettable leg scissors takedown/heel hook combination).  The Schembri fight was predictably poor, as was Chonan’s Pride debut – a decision loss to Ricardo Almeida at Bushido 3.  Chonan has undoubtedly faced stronger opposition that Villasenor and his recent training with Team Quest should have been a great benefit to him.  This is a huge fight for both men.  Can Villasenor make it on the big stage?  Can Chonan overcome those knockout losses and become one of Bushido’s best Japanese fighters?  Villasenor will be underrated by many and should give him a tremendous fight, but Chonan’s higher-level experience should see him through this one, possibly by submission.  That said, Villasenor trains with some very good submission fighters and just a couple of his punches could swing the fight in his favour.  This could be something really special.

PREDICTION: Chonan by submission late in the first.

Welterweight Grand Prix: Makoto Takimoto vs. Gegard Mousasi

There just seems to be something fundamentally unlikeable about Takimoto (2-2) as a fighter.  An exceptionally talented Judoka, the 32-year-old seems thoroughly unsuited to MMA, having little interest in doing anything beyond using his Judo and collecting his paycheck.  All four of his fights have gone the distance and all four have been very, very dull.  His striking is extremely sloppy and often looks like the inept bumbling of a complete novice throwing punches for the first time in his entire life.  Despite his Judo background, Takimoto is no finisher either – he even went a full 20 minutes with Sentoryu.  True, that was his professional debut against a much bigger fighter but he still lamentably failed to exploit his advantages in speed, stamina and grappling.  His other victory, over Yoon Dong Sik saw some terrible striking and a lot of inactivity on the ground and Takimoto looked awful in his two defeats.  A thoroughly bored Kiyoshi Tamura dominated him with low kicks and going into his last fight with Sanae Kikuta fight wearing his traditional outfit was a huge blunder by Takimoto since Kikuta has a stellar Judo pedigree of his own so knew exactly how to control his opponent with it.  Unable to mount any real offense of his own, Takimoto seemed content to lie there holding half-guard and taking minimal punishment.

Holland based Armenian Mousasi (12-1-1) is a very different story.  A dynamic puncher, capable and lively on the mat, Mousasi is also on a 7-fight winning streak, finishing every one of them (2 by submission and 5 KO/TKO).  An accurate puncher, he should be able to land shots with ease against a ragged, near-defenceless arm-flailer like Takimoto.  If he can fight at range he should be able to wear Takimoto down for a late stoppage, but his takedown defence is suspect and if Takimoto gets him down he can use the Gi to stifle Mousasi.  The Armenian may be busy on the mat but his last submission win, against the tough but ordinary Chico Martinez saw him try several different chokes before finally getting it right and finishing the fight late in the first round.  Kiyoshi Tamura, owner of some of the best low kicks in the sport, couldn’t stop Takimoto, but he never really tried to, though he did floor Takimoto late in the fight and Kikuta hurt him late as well.  Mousasi can improve on that by fending off Takimoto’s wild charges and using his striking skills (he has a boxing background) to pick him apart.  With a smart gameplan Mousasi can pull off a late stoppage win as Takimoto tires and feels the effects of the accumulated punishment.

PREDICTION: Mousasi by TKO late in the second.

Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. Marcus Aurelio

The consensus on this one seems to be a decision, with plenty of people going for Kawajiri protégé (and owner of a beautiful pair of cauliflower ears) Ishida (11-2-1) and plenty going for ‘Maximus’ Aurelio (14-2).  This one almost seems guaranteed to be a close, high-energy fight, whoever wins.  Both are coming off impressive Bushido 10 submission victories – Ishida dominant over Paul Rodriguez and finishing it with a guillotine and Aurelio stunning everyone by literally choking out Bushido superstar and Lightweight champion, Takanori Gomi.  Unfortunately for Aurelio, that was a non-title fight but that win was one of the year’s biggest upsets so far and the former ZST regular from the American Top Team should now be considered one of the world’s top lightweights.  With similar levels of experience (Ishida’s debut was in 2001, Aurelio’s came 11 months later) and real expertise in plenty of facets of fighting, this should be very interesting.  Because of Aurelio’s win over Gomi this has become the biggest fight of Ishida’s career and the Shooto Pacific Rim champion is the more gifted wrestler.  Aurelio though has the edge in submission skill and his confidence should be at an all-time high after the Gomi win.  ATT have had some great results of late and can boast some exceptional talent.  With a team like that behind him, Aurelio should have no excuses about being under prepared.  Aurelio has beaten bigger names but Ishida is hugely talented and came up through the ranks of the ultra-competitive Shooto where he’s gone 9-2-1.  Both have very good chins and submission defence, and their 4 combined losses have all been by decision.  Only Daisuke Sugie (later avenged) and Vitor Ribeiro have beaten Ishida while Aurelio has dropped split decisions to Antonio McKee and Dokonjonosuke Mishima.  Ishida should be able to take Aurelio down with ease, but once on the mat he needs to look out for Aurelio’s incessant submission attempts.  Look for both to work at a frantic pace on the ground and force a very difficult decision from the judges.

PREDICTION: Aurelio by decision.

Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Charles Bennett

Somebody within DSE has a cruel sense of humour.  ‘Krazy Horse’ Bennett (14-12-2) is an inconsistent, bizarre, entertaining comedy fighter with little more than punching power and eccentricity in his arsenal.  Often displaying the submission awareness of a confused infant and stamina of a sickly drug addict, Bennett will almost certainly be obliterated here.  He’s gone 1-5 in his last six fights with his sole win coming last New Year’s Eve against actor Ken Kaneko.  The talented Buddy Clinton needed just 18 seconds to finish Bennett in March and Jeff Curran, Urijah Faber and Dokonjonosuke Mishima have had little trouble trapping him with submissions too.  2-2 in Pride (he shockingly KO’ed Yoshihiro Maeda at Bushido 7) and something of a cult favourite for his mini-Rampage persona and sheer weirdness, Bennett is a decent fighter on the KOTC level but way out of his depth against Kawajiri (16-3-2).

One of the world’s top lightweights, with wins over Yves Edwards, Vitor Ribeiro, Jani Lax and Luiz Firminho, Kawajiri is a far, far better fighter than Bennett.  Well-rounded, tough and experienced, he’s a serious competitor with a massive edge in grappling skill.  He should also be hugely motivated for this fight since his last two matches hardly went according to plan.  His Bushido 9 war with Takanori Gomi was a genuine thriller where Kawajiri amply demonstrated why he’s one of the world’s very best at his weight.  He still lost though, and although he beat Joachim Hansen in March, that was by a totally unsatisfying groin kick DQ.  Bennett looks like just the victim Kawajiri needs in an easy warm-up for this year’s Lightweight Grand Prix.  Bennett’s only chance is sparking Kawajiri out with a huge punch in the opening minute – and Kawajiri took some hefty shots from Gomi.  As soon as they clinch, Bennett is on the way out.  Look for Kawajiri to take him down and then just batter him to defeat with punches on the ground.

PREDICTION: Kawajiri by TKO early in the first.

Hayato Sakurai vs. Olaf Alfonso

If Bennett has little chance against Kawajiri then Alfonso (5-4) probably has even less with resurgent Shooto legend Sakurai (27-7-2).  Brutally, brutally KO’ed by Rob McCullough in his last fight in March, Mexican born Alfonso, a wild, eccentric brawler, will not be winning this fight.  Alfonso has never faced anyone close to Sakurai’s level of skill and experience.  He did extend Gilbert Melendez to late in the third round in 2004, but still lost and has no real wins of note behind him.  His best bet is to make an entertaining impression on the Japanese audience and hope for a return invitation against an easier opponent because Sakurai will just dismantle him.  A hard life of training and fighting, not to mention the lingering effects of a pair of car crashes, made the Sakurai of 2002 to 2004 a shadow of his former self.  In those three years he went 4-5 and seemed incapable of producing the kind of electrifying displays that made so incredible to watch a couple of years previously.  True, Sakurai was hardly facing bums since he lost to Matt Hughes, Jake Shields, Ryo Chonan and Rodrigo and Crosley Gracie but he seemed flat and uninspired.  But 2005 saw him turn things around completely.  He walked away with the Kakutougi ‘Comeback Fighter of the Year’ award with a whopping 56% of the vote (his nearest rival earned 12%) and went 4-1 inside the ring.  He followed a pair of well-deserved decision wins over Milton Viera and Shinya Aoki with his awesome performance at Bushido 9.  Fighting twice on the best MMA show in history, Sakurai finished Jens Pulver with strikes in a fantastic stand-up fight that saw him throw vicious low kicks and land some great punches.  Later that evening he took a decision win over Joachim Hansen, again flooring his opponent with some great strikes.  True, Gomi battered him on New Year’s Eve but Sakurai was definitely back.  Alfonso simply isn’t good enough to beat him.  Look for Sakurai to pick him apart with low kicks and body punches before finishing him with a series of punches to the face.

PREDICTION: Sakurai by KO midway through the first.

Welterweight Grand Prix: Akihiro Gono vs. Hector Lombard

Of the four tournament participants making their Pride debuts, the unbeaten Lombard (9-0) looks to have the most potential and the best chance of making it to the next round.  A 2000 Olympian in Judo with very heavy hands and a very aggressive fighting style, the Cuban lacks the experience of his opponent but should be extremely difficult to beat.  The only recognisable name on his record is Daijyu Takase but Lombard impressively hammered him to a KO defeat in March.  Gono (24-11-7) struggled with the limited Dae Won Kim in the early part of their fight at Bushido 10 and if he gets off to a similar slow start here, this could be a winning debut for Lombard.  Gono of course has a huge experience edge, fighting for Pride, Pancrase and Shooto in a long career that dates back to the 1994 Lumax Cup.  Gono has even found time for some professional kickboxing as well.  He should logically win, but given the way he struggled with Kim’s explosiveness, Lombard has a great chance here.  Its hard to pick against someone with so much experience and wins over fighters like Daniel Acacio, Gracie and Ivan Salaverry but I’m going to.  Gono’s takedown defence can be lacking at times and his chin has let him down a couple of times as well.  The 32-year-old has also had a lot of hard fights in a long career.  It’s easy to get carried away with the hype but Lombard could be something really special.  Look for him to make a major impact with a late stoppage win after controlling the early part of the fight using his excellent Judo skills.

PREDICTION: Lombard by TKO midway through the second.

Welterweight Grand Prix: Denis Kang vs. Murilo Rua

The tournament’s lone Chute Boxe representative ‘Ninja’ Rua (11-6-1) and Canadian-Korean ATT member Kang (21-7-1) are coming off very different matches at Bushido 10 in April.  Kang left Mark Weir looking like an extra in an Eli Roth movie after a rampant performance that saw him take a few shots on their feet but hurt the Englishman with some great hooks and uppercuts before landing some knees to the face.  On the ground, Kang used his greater wrestling skill to control the fight and laid out some brutally effective ground n’ pound to win the fight, reminiscent of Fedor Emelianenko.  With Weir’s nose and eye bleeding Kang bashed him with a heavy right hand, followed by a short and nasty knee that prompted Weir, leaking blood and with his right eye horribly bruised and swollen, to tap out midway through the first round.  ‘Ninja’ on the other hand was just physically dominated by Paulo Filho on the way to losing the clearest and dullest of decisions.  Utterly unable to stop Filho’s takedowns or mount any kind of fight back on the ground, Rua’s 183 pound debut, where he looked in the best shape of his life, was a disaster.  The drop down in weight was supposed to revitalise his stagnant DSE career after a disastrous move up to heavyweight where he was taken apart by Sergei Kharitonov and the simple fact that with teammate Wanderlei Silva and younger brother Mauricio ‘Shogun’ as the biggest middleweight stars there was just no place for a third Chute Boxer at that weight.  BTT grappler Filho ruined that though and Rua needs a great performance here to beat a very difficult opponent.

Both men are very aggressive on their feet, with Rua’s typically Chute Boxe offense consisting of throwing every single one of his limbs at his opponent in a constant stream of punches, knees, kicks and stomps.  Kang’s striking is more controlled but like Rua he seems to lack the power necessary to truly dominate.  Rua has just 3 wins with strikes and Kang has only 6, though he did record a 12 second KO less than three weeks after the Weir destruction at a much lower level.  Kang has gone 16-0-1 since his last defeat in April 2003 and while Rua is the one who dropped down a weight, Kang is likely stronger as he’s a big 183-pounder while Rua always used to carry plenty of spare flesh.  With Kang’s superior wrestling and the kind of ground n’ pound he showed in the Weir fight, things could get very uncomfortable for Rua very quickly.  Both men have good chins, though Kang was taken out by the smaller Kaokalai under K-1 rules and if they stand and trade this could end up as a lengthy, all-action war where fatigue rather than punching power, decides the winner.  In a fight like that this will be extremely close and difficult to call but if Kang has studied the Filho-Rua fight he should have seen the way to win is to get Rua down.  Once on his back, ‘Ninja’ is a real handful, if only because he struggles so hard with so much energy but while Kang’s BJJ is nothing like Filho’s level, he may be able to give Rua a beating on the mat, as long as he can keep him there.  Expect real drama in this one as Kang may not be able to resist the urge to brawl with Rua.  If so, this could easily end up as one of those fights that go the distance and leaving the crowd begging for more and the judge’s in a very unenviable position.

PREDICTION: Kang by decision.

Welterweight Grand Prix: Phil Baroni vs. Kazuo Misaki

Every Phil Baroni (9-6) preview should probably be interchangeable.  The words “furious puncher”, “exceptional power in either hand”, “underrated wrestling” and “complete lack of stamina” should probably be in there somewhere.  Brutally heavy-handed, Baroni usually needs to keep the fight standing and win early or he’s going to lose.  His 25-second KO of Yuki Kondo at Bushido 10 was easily the biggest win of Baroni’s up-and-down career.  The arrogant, charismatic New Yorker has been very successful in Japan, going 3-1, KO’ing Ryo Chonan and stomping all over Ikuhisa Minowa in a wild brawl at Bushido 7.  The problem for Baroni is that he only seems to win when a match is fought on his terms.  Anyone without the wrestling skills to take him down and dominate him on the mat (Matt Lindland twice, Minowa in their Bushido 9 rematch), an effective counterpunching strategy (the second Evan Tanner fight) or simply the stamina to outlast him (Pete Sell) will probably end up the loser.  Purely defensive minded on his back, Baroni can be very effectively controlled, neutralised and tired out, even if Sell is the only person to ever catch him with a submission hold.  Accomplished kickboxer Amar Suloev hurt Baroni badly but still lost, taking a barrage of vicious punches by the fence.  Minowa’s decision to brawl with Baroni in their first fight ended painfully, partly as his own stamina is about as reliable as the American’s and Baroni’s power, handspeed and explosiveness were amply demonstrated in his 18-second destruction of Dave Menne in 2002.

A Team Grabaka fighter and one of Pancrase’s most talented regulars, Misaki (15-6-2) is a very effective striker with some very good grappling skills.  He lacks Baroni’s power but is a more versatile competitor with much better stamina and a good chin.  Coming off a close decision loss to Dan Henderson at Bushido 10, Misaki controlled the fight most of the way but lost because a couple of Henderson’s heavy punches clearly hurt him.  All of Misaki’s aggression and disciplined striking may have been undone by those big right hands but Misaki still ended the fight looking the fresher of the two fighters.  Misaki (who may be the most suntanned Japanese fighter on the planet) was hugely impressive on his Pride debut, taking a decision win in a cracking fight with Brazilian Vale Tudo Jorge Patino at Bushido 3.  He’s lost four times since the start of 2003 – all of them by decision to Ricardo Almeida, Nate Marquardt, Daniel Acacio and Henderson.  Far more well-rounded than Baroni, Misaki is adept with chokes, beating Akira Shoji with a guillotine in February, defeating Brazilian Gracie Barra veteran Flavio Luiz Moura with a North/South variation in March 2005 and putting TUF3 whiner Ed Herman out with an arm triangle in July 2004.  He may not finish Baroni by submission but he can certainly drain his energy by forcing him to continually defend on the ground.  It worked for Minowa and it can work for Misaki.  The first couple of minutes will be very dangerous for Misaki and he does seem to enjoy standing and trading.  If he tries that with Baroni this could be a short and brutal brawl, but with a little thought and planning, Misaki should be able to take a comfortable decision win.  Its not particularly difficult really, at least in theory – just avoid getting dragged into a war and don’t get hit too much early on.  Executing that plan with an enraged muscular whirlwind like Baroni in front of him will be tougher in practice than theory but Misaki can do it and progress to the next round of the tournament.

PREDICTION: Misaki by decision.

Predictions Re-cap:

Jason Black DEC2 Eoh Won Jim
Amar Suloev TKO1 Murilo Bustamante
Paulo Filho DEC2 Gregory Bouchelaghem
Ryo Chonan SUB1 Joey Villasenor
Gegard Mousasi TKO2 Makoto Takimoto
Marcus Aurelio DEC2 Mitsuhiro Ishida
Tatsuya Kawajiri TKO1 Charles Bennett
Hayato Sakurai KO1 Olaf Alfonso
Hector Lombard TKO2 Akihiro Gono
Denis Kang DEC2 Murilo Rua
Kazuo Miasaki DEC2 Phil Baroni