Tournament Line-up:

Alternate Fight: Brandon Wolff vs. Josh MacDonald
Semi-Final: Yushin Okami vs. Jake Shields
Semi-Final: Frank Trigg vs. Carlos Condit
Tournament Final

Non-tournament Line-up:

Renato Verissimo vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Shinpei Sotoyama vs. Brendon Wolf
Ray Cooper vs. Koji Yoshida
Wesley Correira vs. Kazuhiro Hamanaka
Scott Junk vs. Hideki Tadao

April 21st 2006
Blaisdell Arena, Honolulu, Hawaii

Alternate Fight: Brandon Wolff vs. Josh MacDonald

Considering the originally announced alternate bout was Ronald Jhun vs. Jose ‘Pele’ Landi-Jons, this all-Hawaiian clash has to be something of a disappointment.  MacDonald (0-1) made his debut with a loss to ROTR regular Ross Ebanez last summer and Wolff (3-2) is coming off a TKO loss to Enson Inoue protégé Riki Fukuda last July.  Although Wolff first started fighting in early 2002 and has a clear edge in experience over MacDonald, if either of these fighters are called on to replace one of the main tournament competitors, few would doubt the outcome of the final match.  Neither MacDonald, nor Wolff, who should win this fight inside the distance, are good enough or experienced enough to give Trigg, Condit, Okami or Shields much trouble.

Semi-Final: Yushin Okami vs. Jake Shields

Cesar Gracie student Shields (12-4-1) booked his place in the semi-finals with a typically efficient decision win over a weight-drained Dave Menne in a boring fight last January.  Picking up unanimous scores of 30-27, Shields was in control all the way but never looked like finishing the fight.  His opponent Okami (14-2) made it to this stage going by a less traditional route.  Dominated by Anderson Silva on their feet, when Okami finally scored a takedown and was trying some strikes through Silva’s guard, the fast, flexible Brazilian booted him in the face, knocking Okami out.  Unfortunately for Silva, both Okami’s knees were down and kicking a downed opponent is illegal.  A technically correct but terribly unsatisfying decision saw Silva disqualified and Okami extend his winning run to six fights in the most unlikely fashion.  Shields will not dominate Okami with leg kicks and punches the way Silva did, but he should be able to outwrestle him.  Both Shields and Okami are talented, very durable fighters and this one has decision written all over it.  Both men have only been stopped once apiece in their careers and both have had trouble finishing fights in the past.  With wins over Hayato Sakurai, Milton Viera, Akira Kikuchi, Ray Cooper and Menne, Shields has beaten more impressive fighters and that, combined with his association with the excellent Cesar Gracie team should give him the advantage in this one.  It’s a fight that is unlikely to be too exciting but Shields should pick up a comfortable decision win.

Semi-Final: Frank Trigg vs. Carlos Condit

Like shields, Trigg (13-4) advanced to the semi-finals with a decision win, though his was far more entertaining.  The first two rounds of his match with local favourite Ronald Jhun saw them swapping leg kicks and punches, with Trigg’s superior wrestling giving him a clear edge.  Trigg sealed things in the last round with a pair of huge takedowns and some effective striking on the ground earning him the judge’s verdict over a competitive opponent.  Condit (14-2) pulled off the tournament’s biggest surprise with his blitzing of Renato ‘Charuto’ Verissimo in an incredible 17 seconds.  Explosive and fast, Condit proved his 87-second TKO win over another local favourite; Ross Ebanez last November was anything but a fluke.  Unfortunately for Condit, two things are working against him in this fight.  Firstly, he is no longer any kind of secret and Trigg will be careful to avoid rushing in.  Instead, the former UFC Welterweight title challenger will be more careful, picking his spots for takedown attempts.  In addition, the long limbed, Condit is naturally lighter and less physically powerful than his opponent.  It is unlikely he can stop Trigg from taking him down and once on the ground, Trigg can hand out some real punishment.  They may have a similar number of fights, but Trigg has been fighting longer and been in there with far better fighters.  True, most of them seem to have finished him with a rear naked choke, but aside from his win over Verissimo, Condit has struggled when stepping up to fight a higher class of opponent.  Both Carlo Prater and Satoru Kitaoka tapped him out and although Trigg is no submissions expert, he should finish this inside the distance.  Look for Trigg to advance with a TKO late in the first after taking Condit down, carefully controlling the action and wearing him down before unleashing some heavy punches for the finish.

Tournament Final:

As with any one-night tournament, much depends on how each of the final competitors won their first fight.  Based on that, and my predictions, Trigg should win this fight.  But Shields is the kind of fighter Trigg will have real difficulty against.  He’s a very talented BJJ stylist, with strong wrestling, though nothing like as good as Trigg’s, who is adept at defending himself both standing or on the ground.  Trigg may try to be aggressive on his feet but his real strength is his wrestling and neither he nor Shields are truly adept at striking on their feet.  At some point, Trigg will try taking Shields down and the younger man will likely to be happy to fight on the mat.  Trigg has beaten some very good submission fighters that way (Dennis Hallman and ‘Charuto’ instantly spring to mind, not to mention wins in the 1990s over Jean-Jacques Machado and Fabiano Iha) and that will probably be his gameplan with Shields.  He needs to be very careful, especially after those RNC losses to Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre, but realistically, Shields is just not as good as either of those two fighters.  He does not have the wrestling skills and brute power that Hughes does, nor the explosiveness of GSP.  Shields needs to go out and be aggressive but Trigg will be the one to seize the initiative first and once he gets on top, Trigg is very difficult to beat.  Even if Shields is tired from a longer fight with Okami, Trigg will have his own stamina problems because he’ll find it hard to grind down the aggressive, hyperactive Condit, even if their fight is relatively short.  Worries over his own endurance may prompt Trigg to come out even more aggressively and Shields needs to find a way to counter that.  Unfortunately for him, I doubt he can and Trigg should win this.  He may have to go the distance (those defensive skills of Shields’) but Trigg should walk away the first Rumble on the Rock Welterweight champion.

Non-tournament Matches:

‘Charuto’ Verissimo (5-3) faces a very tough opponent in Kuniyoshi Hironaka (9-2).  Both are very gifted grapplers and this should see them both display their mat skills in what could be a great battle of technique.  Verissimo needs to bounce back from the 17-second destruction at the fists and knees of Carlos Condit while Hironaka is coming off a pair of submission wins over Pancrase regular Takuya Wada and Team Quest wrestler Ryan Schultz.  ‘Charuto’ has lost 3 of his last 4 after reeling off 4 straight wins (include dominating performances against Gil Castillo and Carlos Newton).  Aside from losing on a cut to rising Shooto star Shinya Aoki, Hironaka hasn’t lost a fight in almost 4 years and holds a victory over Nick Diaz.  Hironaka is more than capable of upsetting the Hawaiian fans by beating their Brazilian-born local boy, but I have a feeling Verissimo will edge out a genuinely close decision win.

GCM regular and Wajyutsu fighter Shinpei Sotoyama (5-2-2) faces Hawaii’s Brendon Wolf (1-0) in what should be another very close fight at around 175 pounds.  Sotoyama, who turns 22 just four days before the show, has a major edge in experience.  Look for the Japanese fighter to score a submission win.

Ray ‘Bradda’ Cooper (13-8) takes on the winless former professional boxer Koji Yoshida (0-2) at around 155 pounds.  This could be an electrifying stand-up battle as Yoshida, despite his inexperience under MMA rules did well in his K-1 Hero’s debut against Royler Gracie and surprised many by being competitive and going the distance.  Yoshida also dropped his second fight by decision but is learning and progressing fairly well and may give Cooper some trouble.  He won’t win though.  Cooper has some very impressive wins on his record, since starting his professional career in 1997.  He’s beaten Hermes Franca, Jake Shields, Antonio McKee and Jutaro Nakao, fighting mainly in Hawaii or Shooto.  Cooper will just have too much skill and experience for Yoshida and should win by either TKO or submission.

Iron-headed, badly tattooed puncher Wesley ‘Cabbage’ Correira (17-9) returns after breaking his arm before his ROTR8 match with Butterbean but still, amazingly, going through with the fight.  His opponent Kazuhiro Hamanaka (1-2-1) seemed to have real potential when he debuted as an aggressive, if very limited fighter against Antonio Schembri at Pride 26 almost 3 years ago.  Hamanaka, a protégé of Kazushi Sakuraba, decisioned the incredibly boring Brazilian before facing Ryan Gracie at the first Pride: Bushido show in a dull fight where Hamanaka injured his knee on his way to losing by TKO.  Aside from a draw with Yukiya Naito for the GCM promotion, Hamanaka has had little success since.  He was KO’ed in 39 seconds in his last fight and the only other ‘win’ on his record was in an obviously worked pro wrestling match in 2004 at the New Japan USA Dojo in Los Angeles.  Not only is Hamanaka giving up a lot of experience and striking skill here, he’s giving up at least 40 pounds and looks headed for a quick, severe beating.  With some terribly disinterested performances and shocking displays of cardiovascular ‘preparation’ behind him, Correira is an infuriating fighter, capable of troubling most heavyweights with his fast hands, great chin and sheer stubbornness, he can also bore a crowd to death with his negativity.  But this is his fight to win, and win in style.  I’m going for Correira by a brutal first round knockout.

The huge Scott Junk (1-1) will have around a 100-pound weight advantage over his opponent, Pancrase regular Hideki Tadao (4-5).  Junk escaped a full mount and reversed things to give his ROTR8 opponent Vilatonu Fonokalaifi a first round pasting in January.  While he’s giving up a great deal of experience, not to mention some skill, to Tadao, his enormous physical advantages should see him pound out another first round win over a decent, but not particularly special fighter.

Predictions Re-cap:

Brandon Wolff TKO1 Josh MacDonald
Frank Trigg TKO1 Carlos Condit
Jake Shields DEC3 Yushin Okami
Tournament Final: Frank Trigg DEC3 Jake Shields

Non-tournament Line-up:

Renato Verissimo DEC3 Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Shinpei Sotoyama SUB1 Brendon Wolf
Ray Cooper TKO1 Koji Yoshida
Wesley Correira KO1 Kazuhiro Hamanaka
Scott Junk TKO1 Hideki Tadao

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