As for the fights themselves, the two main events are intriguing enough, even if Griffin seems to have been rushed into a fight with Ortiz and few would give Sylvia a chance after the way Arlovski destroyed him last time, but there’s a strong undercard backing them up.  Two fascinating middleweight matches see Justin Levens face a huge test in Evan Tanner and David Terrell finally returns to take on newcomer Scott Smith.  Karo Parisyan also returns from injury and in Jeff Monson’s grudge match with old foe Marcio ‘Pe De Pano’ Cruz is a fight that could determine the promotion’s next heavyweight title challenger.  Nick Diaz gets what must surely be his last chance against the formidable Sean Sherk and young, talented fighters in Jason Lambert and Thiago Alves have a chance to shine.

Line-up:

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
UFC Heavyweight title: Andrei Arlovski vs. Tim Sylvia
Nick Diaz vs. Sean Sherk
Jeff Monson vs. Marcio Cruz
David Terrell vs. Scott Smith
Karo Parisyan vs. Nick Thompson
Jason Lambert vs. Terry Martin
Thiago Alves vs. Derrick Noble
Evan Tanner vs. Justin Levens

April 15th
Arrowhead Pond, Anaheim, California

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

Rarely has a UFC main event had a more fitting subtitle than this one.  Because the ridiculously likeable Griffin is facing a major reality check against Zuffa’s former poster boy.  Griffin (12-2) seems able to have an entertaining fight with practically anybody thanks in part to the wild, unsophisticated striking that makes him a constantly punching whirlwind but also leaves him wide open for counters.  Just look back at last year’s epic brawl with Stephan Bonnar for evidence of that.  He’s still a dangerous striker, partly because of the sheer awkwardness that makes it hard to actually defend against his flailing fists.  Neater, sharper technique may work for others but Griffin’s wild, straight ahead style works well and there seems little point in trying to change that.  Against Ortiz (12-4) he may not get much of a chance to strike as ‘the Huntington Beach Bad Boy’ is still one of the sport’s very best at taking his opponent down and then just mauling and striking them until they can’t take any more or time runs out.  Griffin has decent takedown defence and does possess some hugely underrated submission skills.  His choking out of Bill Mahood at UFC 53 was stylishly done and Griffin has plenty of experience in no-Gi grappling events and submission wins over Ebenezer Fontes Braga and Chael Sonnen but Ortiz is excellent at avoiding submission attempts.  Add the grappling ability to his excellent chin and stubborn nature and Griffin is always a threat, even on his back taking punches and elbows.

Of course, being in there with a fighter like Ortiz, Griffin is almost guaranteed to be in that position quickly.  Ortiz may talk about his striking skills but he’s never stood and traded with anyone the way Griffin always tries to.  Against Chuck Liddell at UFC 47, Ortiz only stood with his former training partner once Liddell had stopped a couple of takedown attempts.  He didn’t choose the strategy that saw him memorably TKO’ed early in the second round.  Liddell’s takedown defence forced it upon him.  Ortiz is a more disciplined, but less instinctive striker who relies very heavily on his wrestling.  Griffin may have good wrestling skills but Ortiz repeatedly took down Vladimir Matyushenko (on paper a far better wrestler) in their disastrous UFC 33 match back in September 2001.  True, Randy Couture dominated practically every moment of their UFC 44 match, but then, Couture is Couture.  Against lesser wrestlers Ortiz will take them down fast and hard before laying on some punishment, as he did in a lethargic fight with Patrick Cote at UFC 50.  Ortiz also has the clear edge in stamina, having gone 5 rounds twice and outlasted Vitor Belfort for a well-deserved, if close decision at UFC 51.

Griffin blows so much energy on his wild all-out attacks that he may have very little left in the third round, while a more focused, controlled Ortiz will still be fighting hard.  That could be the key to this fight.  Ortiz may be predictable but he has brute strength, great wrestling, good strikes on the ground, makes excellent use of the fence and overall, should win this fight.  Griffin is certainly a good fighter but inside the Octagon, Ortiz is just a much more effective, if nowhere near as entertaining competitor.  One question mark is the quality of Ortiz’ chin.  Ken Shamrock was just physically abused by Ortiz for much of their UFC 40 fight but the old man still briefly dropped Ortiz and Cote did the same in the opening moments of their fight.  Belfort almost battered a win out of him too and Ortiz was fortunate to survive the Brazilian’s onslaught and come back to win.  If Griffin hits him with a couple of really good shots he could spring the upset but look for Ortiz to take Griffin down quickly and go to work with punches and elbows.  It won’t be a total destruction thanks to Griffin’s near legendary toughness but this will probably be a pretty one-sided fight.  Expect a bloody Griffin to be stopped, perhaps on cuts, late in the fight.

PREDICTION: Ortiz by TKO midway through the third.

UFC Heavyweight title: Andrei Arlovski vs. Tim Sylvia

It’s a real indictment of the state of the UFC heavyweight division that Sylvia (20-2) has earned himself another title shot just 11 months and 3 fights after Arlovski (9-3) squashed him with such ease in 47 seconds.  Flooring the big man with a vicious right hand Arlovski passed his flailing legs and caught Sylvia with a leglock the Miletich fighter seemed thoroughly incapable of defending against.  Since then Sylvia has left Tra Telligman completely unconscious from the world’s ugliest but most powerful high kick and decisioned Assuerio Silva in a fight more notable for Sylvia’s fence grabbing takedown defence and literally crapping himself in the middle of the action.  That troublesome stomach virus may help to explain why Sylvia seemed so dull and lifeless in that fight but I’ve no idea what Silva’s excuse was.  The pair of them seemed to be fighting slow motion at times in a fight that stayed almost entirely standing, despite Silva’s best attempts to pull guard.  Sylvia did look confident with his stand-up striking and that aspect of his game has certainly improved but there was nothing in that fight to indicate he has a real shot at beating Arlovski this time around.  Sylvia’s height and reach should be big factors but the 6’9” fighter tends to stoop down to his opponent’s height and Arlovski is a good 6’4” himself.  Sylvia doesn’t really have the instincts, speed or reflexes to swap strikes with ‘the Pitbull.’  Telligman, despite being well past his best, and Silva are quality strikers but neither are in Arlovski’s league.  Sylvia’s other post-Arlovski win over a terribly overmatched Mike Block says little about his chances of winning back the title.

If you were designing a modern MMA heavyweight, you could do far worse than to use Arlovski as a blueprint, at least from bell to bell.  The Belarussian may never have the interview skills to genuinely connect with an American audience the way his talents deserve but during the fight itself, Arlovski is a finely balanced, athletically gifted, aggressive, entertaining fighter with ideal size for a heavyweight.  For a fighter who rarely needs to use it, Arlovski’s ground game seems sharp and with an unbeaten run of 6 fights where he looked excellent every single time, Arlovski stands far above any of the heavyweights currently on Zuffa’s books.  No fighter is perfect and Arlovski’s chin has let him down in the past (sparked flat out by Pedro Rizzo and Viacheslav Datsik) but nobody has really even come close to hurting, or even seriously challenging him since that loss to Rizzo 4 years ago.  Arlovski tore Ian Freeman to pieces in 85 seconds and flattened Vladimir Matyushenko in less than 2 minutes with a beautiful uppercut.  It took him longer to destroy Wesley ‘Cabbage’ Correira thanks to the Hawaiian’s excellent chin but that fight, finished with a nice Arlovski combination 75 seconds into the second round, still saw Arlovski dominate.  Then came the Sylvia fight where Arlovski took the vacant Heavyweight belt and then the ill-conceived title defence against Justin Eilers.  After 4:10 of their total mismatch, Eilers left the cage with two broken hands, a broken nose, fractured cheekbone and a decimated knee.  By those standards, his last challenger Paul Buentello got off lightly, being sent to sleep with a perfect right hand 15 seconds into the fight.  Arlovski fights with all the aggression of a righteous householder giving a late-night intruder a well-deserved beating and will probably come out looking for another first round win this time.  With his mix of skills, that aggression and Arlovski’s handspeed, the more ponderous Sylvia could be in for another fast, painful night.  If things go on like this the first fighter to actually beat Arlovski will be the one he’s simply too overconfident to train properly for.

PREDICTION: Arlovski by TKO late in the first.

Nick Diaz vs. Sean Sherk

Thoroughly arrogant Cesar Gracie student Diaz (11-5) has had little to boast about recently.  He’s lost his last two fights – being physically manhandled and bullied into a decision loss by Diego Sanchez at the TUF2 live finale and throwing away a potential decision win over a weight drained Joe Riggs at UFC 57.  Those fights don’t seem to have humbled the Californian welterweight though.  His immediate response to the Sanchez loss was to announce he still doesn’t respect or rate the TUF1 star and a hospital based scuffle with Riggs later the same evening served as an impromptu rematch that Diaz may or may not have won, depending on which version of the story you believe.  Diaz is undoubtedly a gifted fighter with some great ground skills and effective, unorthodox striking.  His UFC 44 armbar win over old foe Jeremy Jackson, his stunning KO of then-highly rated Robbie Lawler at UFC 47 and utter destruction of Koji Oishi at UFC 53 are evidence of that.  A lean and long-limbed fighter with surprising power in his fists Diaz simply did not do enough to earn the decision against Riggs despite landing some nice punches from unorthodox angles that seemed to hurt the incredible shrinking welterweight on more than one occasion.

Like Diaz, the hugely experienced Sherk (29-2-1) is coming off a loss.  Added to UFC 56 as a major test for Georges St. Pierre in his first Zuffa appearance since pushing Matt Hughes all the way to a decision at UFC 42, Sherk was humbled by the French-Canadian star.  The way St. Pierre dominated the standing exchanges surprised few but his thoroughly outwrestling Sherk as well was a revelation.  Diaz may have a similar edge in striking as St. Pierre did but he won’t be able to outwrestle Sherk.  Really, this is a very bad match-up for Diaz since he likely can’t stop Sherk’s inevitable takedowns and probably won’t be able to catch him with a submission.  Nobody has ever tapped Sherk out and he gave Matt Hughes a serious fight at a time when Hughes was tearing through everyone.  Sherk has been in there with high-quality fighters before and has wins over Karo Parisyan (twice), Jutaro Nakao, Benji Radach, Ryuki Ueyama and Gerald Strebendt but has spent much of his recent career facing overmatched fighters on smaller shows.  The likes of Eric Heinz, Darin Brudigan, Lee King and Joel Blanton are hardly top fighters.  Given Diaz’ height and reach advantages he should control the fight on their feet but he’s going to have serious trouble with Sherk’s wrestling.  If Sherk fights the same way Sanchez did, and he surely will since his powerful ground n’ pound while avoiding the submissions from the bottom style is what Sherk always does, then Diaz could be looking at his third straight decision defeat.

PREDICTION: Sherk by decision.

Jeff Monson vs. Marcio Cruz

With some ill-tempered confrontations in the past at grappling tournaments, both men’s exceptional grappling skills and the possibility this fight could lead them to a UFC Heavyweight title shot sooner rather than later, this match between ‘the Snowman’ Monson (20-5) and ‘Pe De Pano (2-0) could get very interesting.  During a previous grappling competition a Monson can opener saw him win the fight but Cruz complain since under the rules a can opener could only be used to pass the guard, rather than extract a submission.  This led to a chaotic post-fight scene involving Cruz, his team and some officials.  In their other meeting Cruz won on points and while both have won ADCC titles, Cruz has a far more extensive accomplishments in grappling with a Gi.  Of course, on April 15th they won’t be grappling in a Gi, they’ll be fighting under MMA rules and wearing shorts.  For all his submission skills, Cruz could be in for a serious beating.

Still new to MMA, the 6’4” Cruz trains with the Gracie Barra team that includes Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral and made a winning MMA debut at UFC 55 against Keigo Kunihara.  Cruz finished Kunihara early in the second after a swift guard pass and an opportunistic session of back-clambering that saw him crawling all over his opponent to sink in a nice rear naked choke.  The ending was good but before that, Cruz looked out of his depth in the Octagon.  His striking was terrible and although he clearly wanted to be on his back anyway, his takedown defence was still poor.  He was quickly taken down by Frank Mir at UFC 57 too, but he calmly escaped a Kimura attempt and opened up a nasty cut over Mir’s eye with a couple of slashing elbows.  From there Cruz went to work with a few more good elbows and plenty of sloppy, slapping shots that left Mir’s face a bloody mess.  Given far more of a chance to fight on than he should have been, Mir was eventually rescued by referee Herb Dean late in the first after taking continued, unanswered punishment.  Unfortunately for Cruz, Monson has never shown that same kind of Mir tendency to just mentally shut down once he’s hit with a couple of decent shots, and he’s a far better fighter than Kunihara.

Built like an excessively muscled chimpanzee and decorated like a tattoo-crazed teenager, Monson is a formidable, intimidating fighter.  Currently riding a 14-fight winning streak that dates back to July 2003, the 35 year old American Top Team fighter has some very strong wrestling, great physical strength and intensity and excellent submission.  As a striker, Monson is decent but unremarkable, despite continued improvements and some professional boxing matches on the Florida circuit.  Monson has not lost an MMA fight by submission this century and his last 3 defeats came against Chuck Liddell, a then-peak Ricco Rodriguez and Forrest Griffin.  With 13 of his wins coming by submission and his past history with Cruz, Monson would probably love to make the Brazilian tap but Monson is also a very intelligent fighter and would be better served taking Cruz down quickly and going to work with his fists.  True, Monson looked phenomenal on the mat in choking out unreconstructed wrestler Branden Lee Hinkle at UFC 57 but that was against a fighter with little submission expertise.  Nobody has yet tested Cruz’ composure under fire and while it may take a while to get past Cruz excellent defensive skills, once ‘the Snowman’ starts pounding away he should be able to pick up a rare win with his fists and push his claim for a title shot.

PREDICTION: Monson by TKO late in the second.

David Terrell vs. Scott Smith

The hammering Terrell (5-2) took from Evan Tanner at UFC 51 was, to say the least, a huge setback for the ascendant ‘Soul Assassin’.  Widely expected to win the vacant UFC Middleweight title against the older man, Terrell never even came close.  Taken down and trapped against the fence, he could do nothing against Tanner’s relentlessly brutal elbows and was rescued 4:35 into a very one-sided fight.  Terrell had made a stunning UFC debut, flattening Matt Lindland in just 24 seconds at UFC 49.  But the wheels came off the Terrell bandwagon in a big way when Tanner cruelly exposed his weakness against strikes on the ground.  A good wrestler with some excellent submission skills and fast, effective punches, the 28-year-old Terrell is a very, very good fighter.  He’s also been around for a surprisingly long time, debuting in 1999 with a decision loss to the far more experienced Vernon White before rattling off wins against talented fighters like Joey Villasenor, Yuki Sasaki and Osami Shibuya in his infrequent MMA appearances.  With his skills, experience and preparation with such a great team, Terrell is going to be a huge test for UFC newcomer Smith.

Scott ‘Hands of Steel’ Smith (9-1) has been in terrific form lately.  Entered into a four-man tournament at WEC 17, Smith was facing tournament favourite, and as coincidence has it, Cesar Gracie student, Tim ‘Wrecking Machine’ McKenzie.  Smith hammered him in the first round.  In the final Smith faced alternate and undefeated soon-to-be TUF3 contestant Tait Fletcher, replacing an injured Justin Levens.  Smith pounded him to defeat, again in the first round.  Matched up with Levens 3 months later at WEC 18, Smith calmly survived some sticky moments early on and finished the fight with some fantastic punches in just 1:58.  Can Smith pick up his another TKO win, and claim another Cesar Gracie scalp?  Probably not.  Like Terrell, Smith trains with some quality fighters (James Irvin, Urijah Faber and Tyrone Glover) and he’s dropping down from 205 pounds for this fight.  With his size and strength advantage and those very dangerous fists, Smith is a real handful.  But Terrell should be able to use those submission skills of his to great effect.  Terrell may like his chances as a striker but that would be playing a very dangerous game with Smith.  Look for Terrell to take this one to the mat early and work insistently for a submission until he gets it.

PREDICTION: Terrell by submission midway through the second.

Karo Parisyan vs. Nick Thompson

Usually a fighter with 7 decision verdicts in his last 8 fights would be firmly stuck with the dreaded “boring” label but the all-action Karo ‘the Heat’ Parisyan (14-3) is anything but dull.  And his opponent Thompson’s (24-8-1) aggressive approach means this fight, even if it goes to the judges yet again, should be well worth seeing.  Sidelined by a leg injury that cost him a title shot at Matt Hughes, Parisyan is on the comeback trail after seeing Hughes easily finish off Parisyan’s replacement Joe Riggs.  ‘The Heat’ may have to wait a while longer with George St. Pierre’s win over the returning BJ Penn underlining his claim for a title shot and Hughes’ May 27th non-title fight against Royce Gracie.  Fighting Thompson may seem a bit of a letdown after being promised a shot at Hughes but Parisyan will be making a serious mistake if he looks past the man from Minnesota.  Thompson is one of those fighters who just love to fight.  Last year he fought 15 times, going 12-3 and picking up wins over Brian Gassaway, Nuri Shakir, Josh Neer and Keith Wisniewski (in his UFC debut).  Of the 3 losses, a pair of them were due to injury and the only ‘genuine’ defeat was a TKO against ATT West fighter Paul Purcell.  That loss suggests Parisyan, if he can connect with his usual high-energy, low-technique punches, can hurt Thompson.

While Thompson has more submission wins that Parisyan has wins in total, ‘the Heat’ should have the edge in grappling.  A highly accomplished Judoka, Parisyan has some unique takedowns and is constantly looking for submission openings.  He’s mixed in a higher class of fighters – people like Sean Sherk, St. Pierre, Nick Diaz and Matt Serra –  than Thompson has and while he often looks ragged late in a fight, he still keeps working at a frenetic pace right up to the final bell.  Thompson has decent submission defence but a combination of Parisyan’s grappling skill, energy and high-level experience should see him catch ‘the Goat’ with a submission at some point, perhaps late in the fight.

PREDICTION: Parisyan by submission late in the third.

Jason Lambert vs. Terry Martin

Former heavyweight Lambert (20-5) had a winning UFC debut just a few weeks ago, beating TUF2 contestant Rob MacDonald with a Kimura at UFC 58.  His opponent Martin (12-1) is 0-1 for Zuffa after completely dominating the first round of his UFC 54 match with James Irvin before walking straight onto a flying knee that KO’ed him just seconds into the second round.  Both light heavyweights are good wrestlers with heavy hands and Martin bounced back from his highlight reel KO loss to the limited Irvin with a pair of wins, one by KO, one by submission on the KOTC circuit.  Both have beaten some good fighters with Martin TKO’ing the talented Chael Sonnen and tapping out the insufferably boring Homer Moore and Lambert making Horwich quit, winning a (rather fortunate) decision against Marvin Eastman and KO’ing Travis Wiuff.  Lambert has significantly more experience, he even fought Marco Ruas back in 2001, and is probably a little more well-rounded than the strong, but straightforward, Martin.  He displayed real heart in getting off the floor and surviving some real punishment before coming back with fists flying in that fight with Eastman.  He also seems to possess a more refined striking technique and should be able to use his wrestling to negate the slightly shorter Martin’s takedowns and pick him off with punches and leg kicks for a late stoppage win in a fight that may not exactly be pretty but will be hard fought from beginning to end.

PREDICTION: Lambert by TKO midway through the third.

Thiago Alves vs. Derrick Noble

With Arlovski-Sylvia and Monson-Cruz, rematches seem to be a sub-plot of this event.  Well, add Alves (7-2) and Noble (15-6-1) to that list as they fought in June 2003 with Noble scoring the second round submission win with a rear naked choke.  Things will probably be different this time around in what could be a very exciting welterweight match.  For starters, the aggressive Alves has a little more UFC experience, being ahead in his Ultimate Fight Night 2 debut against Spencer Fisher before being caught with a lightning-fast triangle choke from out of nowhere and then battering Ansar Chalangov to a first round defeat at UFC 56.  Alves has shown some weakness against submissions in the past but in the first round of the Fisher fight, he did defend against and escape a painful looking ankle lock, a triangle, an armbar and an oma plata.  Training with the American Top Team, the 22 year old Alves can only get better and better on the mat.  He already has some good wrestling and excellent ground control along with a busy variety of punches, hammerfists and bodyshots to throw at his opponents.  Alves is explosive too, bashing Jeff Cox to defeat in just 15 seconds early last year.

Illinois based fighter Noble certainly has good credentials.  His last fight was a decision win over the highly touted Yves Edwards protégé Carlo Prater and including that fight, has won 4 straight since a submission loss to Josh Neer.  Aside from Prater though, Noble’s recent victims have been pretty average fighters at best.  Beating up people with 4-4, 13-8 and 0-5 records when none of them have ever beaten a fighter of real significance is not the ideal preparation for a UFC debut.  Noble is a very solid fighter with good all-round skills but Alves’ recent form and preparation at one of North America’s very best camps should help him avenge that earlier loss with a stoppage win.

PREDICTION: Alves by TKO late in the first.

Evan Tanner vs. Justin Levens

Originally set to face another widely respected veteran in Jeremy Horn, Tanner (31-6) instead faces a highly touted replacement in UFC debutant in California’s Justin Levens (7-1).  A former UFC Middleweight Champion, a professional fighter since 1997 with experience in Pancrase and 14 UFC appearances, Tanner is a huge test for the tattooed Marco Ruas student.  The thorough beating Tanner took at UFC 53 in his first and last title defence against Rich Franklin may have put Tanner out of the title picture for a while but he still had a great fight with David Loiseau at Ultimate Fight Night 2 last October.  Tanner used his wrestling and mat skills to control the first round of that fight, working constantly for chokes until a couple of Loiseau’s trademark slashing elbows tore his face up late in the second round.  That made two defeats in a row that left the former Team Quest fighter’s face a pulped mess.  Some wondered whether at his age (he was 35 in February) and with so many fights behind him, Tanner would be able to come back after the Franklin fight, a match where Tanner briefly dropped Franklin but couldn’t follow up and took a long, protracted beating that was mercifully halted 3:25 into the 4th round.  But in the fight immediately before that, Tanner had given company, Joe Rogan, internet and sportsbooks favourite David Terrell a good, old-fashioned thrashing in just over 4 and a half minutes to pick up the long-vacant belt at UFC 51.  Terrell’s vaunted submission skills were of little use with him trapped against the fence and pummelled with relentless elbows and punches.  If Levens finds himself in a similar position, this could be a disastrous UFC debut.

Whatever happens in this fight, Levens deserves credit for stepping in at fairly short notice against such an accomplished fighter.  Being KO’ed in 1:58 by Scott Smith in his last fight at WEC 18 in January was hardly the ideal preparation for an experience as daunting as facing the knee-and-elbow-happy-Texan but ‘the Executioner’ Levens is a very dangerous man.  He’s certainly explosive as none of his fights have ever gone into the second round and he has 5 wins by KO or TKO.  His most notable win came against the favoured Jorge Oliveira last October.  In trouble from an Oliveira triangle choke, Levens countered with a crushing slam to KO his opponent.  Even in the Smith fight, Levens almost won it in the first 10 seconds, dropping Smith with a right hook but failing to follow up fast enough to end it.  Levens has some decent submissions, though nothing Tanner should really worry about but Tanner’s past history of vulnerability (being hurt badly by Phil Baroni in their first fight is just one example) means Levens is always in with a chance here.  If Levens catches Tanner early and jumps all over him with a frantic follow-up, he could pull off the upset, but with Tanner’s experience and broad range of skills, he should be able to neutralise Levens’ striking and take him down.  Once on the ground, as David Terrell discovered, Tanner can be a merciless finisher. 

PREDICTION: Tanner by TKO late in the first.

Predictions Re-cap:

Tito Ortiz TKO3 Forrest Griffin
Andrei Arlovski TKO1 Tim Sylvia
Sean Sherk DEC3 Nick Diaz
Jeff Monson TKO2 Marcio Cruz
David Terrell SUB2 Scott Smith
Karo Parisyan SUB3 Nick Thompson
Jason Lambert TKO3 Terry Martin
Thiago Alves TKO1 Derrick Noble
Evan Tanner TKO1 Justin Levens