Line-up:

Stephan Bonnar vs. Keith Jardine
Chris Leben vs. Luigi Fioravanti
Joe Stevenson vs. Josh Neer
Rashad Evans vs. Sam Hoger
Trevor Prangley vs. Chael Sonnen
Josh Koscheck vs. Ansar Chalangov
Brad Imes vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Luke Cummo vs. Jason Von Flue
Josh Burkman vs. Jon Fitch

Stephan Bonnar vs. Keith Jardine

While his TUF1 compatriot Forrest Griffin is main eventing a pay-per-view in less than two weeks Bonnar (8-2) is still looking for the big fight he craves.  TUF2 contestant Jardine (10-1-1) is a very capable fighter but he’s hardly the big name or high profile match Bonnar wants.  Jardine did a good, if unspectacular job in outpointing TUF2 flop Mike Whitehead in a dull fight at UFC 57 while Bonnar is coming off a good submission win over James Irvin at UFN3.  Hand injuries meant Bonnar who turns 29 just two days before this fight, has fought just twice since his all-out war with Forrest Griffin almost a year ago.  He outclassed Irvin on the ground but made hard work of his fight with Sam Hoger, walking away with a unanimous decision but gassing out badly in the second round.

Jardine, a teammate of Diego Sanchez in Albuquerque, and owner of one of MMA’s absolute worst nicknames – ‘the Dean of Mean’ – is just the kind of efficient, well, rounded fighter who can exploit mistakes and an opponent’s fatigue.  A 6 second KO loss to Travis Wiuff back in 2002 may suggest Jardine’s chin is less than solid but Bonnar is not exactly a concussive puncher.  He wears people down with his furious attacks, all aggression and flailing limbs.  Jardine does hold submission wins over a pair of very capable fighters in Amir Rahnavardi and Arman Gambaryan but the Carlson Gracie trained Bonnar has strong ground skills of his own.  Although never a huge heavyweight, Jardine should still have a strength advantage as the naturally bigger man, particularly if he weathers the early storm.  In Bonnar’s 10 professional fights and the two ‘unofficial’ matches during TUF1, he’s only ever gone past the first round 3 times.  And each of those fights has gone the distance, a close win over Bobby Southworth, the loss to Griffin and the win over Hoger.  Basically, Bonnar seems to fade away after the first few minutes and just does not have the energy left to finish as strongly as he should.  He’s a real survivor but if Jardine can extend him into the third and Bonnar is tired, then anything can happen.  Bonnar usually finds a way to win though and I think his usual first round onslaught will take enough out of Jardine that even if Bonnar can’t finish him, the TUF1 co-winner will hang on to win by a very close decision, even if he takes some punishment in the final round.

PREDICTION: Bonnar by decision.

Chris Leben vs. Luigi Fioravanti

At first glance, UFC matchmaker Joe Silva appears to have plucked Florida’s Luigi Fioravanti (6-0) out of near-total obscurity just to pad Chris Leben’s (14-1) record.  Maybe, maybe not.  Fioravanti is undefeated and has beaten respected American Top Team member Thiago Gonclaves.  There are also a number of definite similarities between Leben and Fioravanti.  Most obviously, both like to brawl, neither has the greatest physique in the business and both have a strange fondness for red hair dye.  Like Leben, Fioravanti has trained with a couple of well-known teams – the Orlando chapter of Gracie Barra and the American Top Team, while the TUF1 ratings-grabber has moved on to work more with AMC Pankration after a long association with Team Quest.  Both have good chins and a walk-forward, throw-leather kind of style.  Former US Marine Fioravanti should be well prepared for his big break, training with the likes of Din Thomas, Thiago Alves and Jeff Monson at ATT.  Fighting on live national television will obviously be a massive change for someone used to fighting on Florida’s AFC events but Fioravanti has more than the bright lights of Las Vegas to worry about.  There’s Leben as well.

Coming off a pair of impressive first round wins, the brash Leben will likely be in his usual confident mood on April 6th.  Those wins surprised Leben’s (many) detractors.  First he used his supposedly negligible ground skills to set up a very nice armbar win over Edwin Dewees at UFN2 and then he stopped the very durable Jorge Rivera in just 104 seconds at UFN3.  True, the Rivera stoppage seemed a little premature but anyone still doubting Leben’s power should note the way Leben dropped the Puerto Rican hardman with a single hook.  Leben and Fioravanti may not be putting on a display of neat, technically adept striking but they will be banging away like a pair of prison yard brawlers.  Neither man has ever been knocked out but Fioravanti’s chin is relatively untested while Leben has taken big shots from men like Patrick Cote, Benji Radach and Joe Doerksen (Leben’s only ‘official’ loss, by decision).  Fioravanti is in an enviable position.  A crowd-pleasing performance, even in defeat could earn him another UFC fight while Leben has to win, and win impressively.  If Leben struggles with an unknown fighter, it makes him look less like a real contender and more like what his critics claim he is – a Zuffa creation, built on hype.  Well, ‘the Crippler’ may not be ready for a title shot, but he’s far more than just hype.  Look for Leben to score another first round win in what could be the night’s most explosive fight.

PREDICTION: Leben by KO late in the first.

Joe Stevenson vs. Josh Neer

Miletich fighter Neer (16-3-1) had a nightmarish UFC debut, being choked completely out in just 95 seconds by Drew Fickett.  A professional for just over 3 years, Neer is a busy fighter and his 3 losses have only come against quality fighters in Fickett, Nick Thompson and Spencer Fisher.  Very well-rounded, with excellent stamina, the aggressive but composed ‘Dentist’ is still only 23 years old and has a pair of impressive submission wins over Forrest Petz and Derrick Noble.  A varied, efficient finisher, just two of Neer’s 16 wins have gone to a judge’s decision with Neer picking up 4 wins with submission holds and earning another 3 tap[outs due to strikes.  In his last fight Neer survived some nasty elbows and suffered a horrific cut over the right eye against Melvin Guillard.  Neer reacted calmly though and slipped in a very nice triangle choke late in the first, pulling off a great win before the cut cost him the fight.

Stevenson (24-6) dominated his opponents during the TUF2 series, using his excellent wrestling, ground control, striking on the mat and some nice submission work to beat the ludicrous Marcus Davis and Jason Von Flue.  In the live finale he faced Luke Cummo and picked up a decision win in a cracking, back-and-forth fight where Stevenson controlled a little more of the action, despite fighting with a nasty shoulder injury.  Including his fights on the reality show, Stevenson has lost just once in his last 17 matches, an October 2002 decision he dropped to the talented Romie Aram.  Three of his six losses came during his first year as a professional when Stevenson was a raw, aggressive teenager, fighting older and talented men like Brennan and Jens Pulver.  A KOTC and Gladiator Challenge regular, Stevenson holds wins over Thomas Denny, Jeremy Jackson, Brad Gumm and Edwin Dewees.  He looked close to a shot at the UFC anyway when TUF came along and the likeable father of about 36 children grabbed his opportunity when it came.  Neer is a quality fighter and this is definitely no easy assignment for Stevenson, but the TUF2 welterweight champion should still win.  There’s nothing particularly fancy about his style – he’s simply a brutishly strong fighter with good technique in all areas, particularly on the mat.  Stevenson’s striking is the weakest aspect of his game, but even then he’s more than competent.  Neer is similar in many ways and any professional fighter from the Miletich camp deserves respect but Stevenson should just be a little better.  He may not finish Neer, but should pick up the win.

PREDICTION: Stevenson by decision.

Rashad Evans vs. Sam Hoger

Michigan’s TUF2 heavyweight winner Evans (6-0) drops down to 205 pounds and faces TUF1 contestant and Miletich fighter Hoger (6-1).  After some atrocious fights during the TUF series (though his decision win over Keith Jardine was a pretty good fight) Evans finally came good by winning and most importantly, being very entertaining in his brawl with Brad Imes during the live finale.  Yet again, Evans couldn’t finish off his opponent but at least this time his decision win was actually enjoyable to watch.  A high-energy bar brawl type of fight, Evans was the very clear winner and came close to KO’ing his enormous opponent more than once.  A much underrated wrestler with some fast hands, Evans has real potential, and at 26 years old, plenty of time to improve.  He also has stamina, fighting twice in one night on two occasions before TUF2 stardom and ‘that’ ridiculous dancing that enraged Matt Hughes so much.

At just 25 years old, his opponent Hoger, also has time on his side and some impressive skills.  A bland but well-rounded competitor, Hoger surprised everyone with his showing against Stephan Bonnar at the first UFN last August.  ‘The Alaskan Assassin’ lost by unanimous decision but had some nice reversals on the ground and if he had more energy himself, who knows how hard he could have pushed a clearly gassed out Bonnar.  Hoger likes to use kicks (particularly to the legs and body) but Evans has much more effective striking skills.  In his last win, over Jeff Newton at UFC 56, Hoger’s striking on the ground was pretty good and he showed off some neat submission skills, eventually catching Newton with a choke in the second round.  As a TUF champion (albeit the weakest of the lot so far) there are certain expectations of Evans but Hoger could be a very effective spoiler and could easily score an upset here.  I don’t think he will, but he has the ability to make Evans look bad and probably will for much of the fight.  In the end though, Evans’ stamina, wrestling and punching should see him though a difficult fight by, (what else?) decision.

PREDICTION: Evans decision.

Trevor Prangley vs. Chael Sonnen

South African born wrestler Prangley (11-3) returns after his much-disputed decision loss to Jeremy Horn at UFC 56 to face another wrestler, Team Quest hardman Sonnen (13-7-1).  These two have met before, back in January 2003 and Prangley took a submission win.  A much improved fighter since then, Prangley has blossomed at the American Kickboxing Academy and should repeat the trick here.  Sonnen has gone 5-5 since the start of 2004, dropping a decision to Keichiro Yamamiya, losing on a cut to Jeremy Horn and by corner stoppage TKO against Terry Martin while being submitted by Horn in a rematch and Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral in a very entertaining UFC 55 match.  Sonnen impressed against Sobral with his sheer tenacity, refusing to tap even while screaming in agony while caught in a heel hook and using his wrestling and some good striking on the ground to really press the Brazilian before being finished with a triangle choke.  Sonnen has pulled off a couple of good decision wins in that time, beating Arman Gambaryan and Alex Stiebling but Prangley has more impressive victories in the last couple of years, beating Andrei Semenov, Curtis Stout, Matt Horwich and Travis Lutter.  Neither man is a great finisher but they both have very good wrestling and submission skills with some decent stand-up striking.  Both tend to clinch a great deal though and while this fight could be an important one in the scramble for contention in the wide-open middleweight division it could get pretty boring.  Expect a fight much like Prangley-Horn with some effective, if slow striking and some good work on the ground.  Prangley has a better record of late and has done better with common opponents (he went the distance with Sobral in 2003 and should have won the Horn fight).  Look for him to win a very close fight.

PREDICTION: Prangley by decision.

Josh Koscheck vs. Ansar Chalangov

28-year old TUF1 fighter and one of the very best pure wrestlers in modern UFC history, Koscheck (4-1) returns six months after his stunning loss to Drew Fickett at UFN2 to face the tough Chalangov (7-1).  Koscheck utterly dominated the Fickett fight, using his excellent wrestling technique to takedown, control and maul his far more experienced opponent for the first, second and most of the third rounds.  But a careless takedown attempt late in the last round saw him dive straight into a Fickett knee and a badly stunned Koscheck was easy prey for a Fickett rear naked choke and one of the most unlikely come-from-behind wins of 2005.  Koscheck’s tactics may have been dull but they were certainly working up to that point and he looked to be on the way to another dominant win after his quick submission over Pete Spratt two months earlier.  The Spratt victory seemed to indicate the man who lay and prayed his way to a win over arch-enemy Chris Leben during TUF1 was making great strides with his trainers and sparring partners at the American Kickboxing Academy.  Physically dominant as he was against Fickett, Koscheck seemed almost to have regressed a little.

Chalangov should be a real test of Koscheck’s development.  The Russian fighter didn’t look particularly, or even slightly good in his UFC debut against Thiago Alves though.  Their UFC 56 undercard clash was a very one-sided affair with Alves quickly taking him down and pounding out a win with his fists.  Chalangov briefly reversed the American Top Team fighter but if Koscheck takes Chalangov down quickly (and he certainly can), there will be few chances to get back on top.  Chalangov has some good victories behind him, most notably a one-night tournament win in Moscow in 2003 and wins over UFC veterans Dave Strasser and Dennis Hallman but Alves showed exactly how to beat him.  Koscheck will have taken note and when he gets Chalangov down, Koscheck will stay on him until he grinds out a TKO win with punches and elbows on the ground.

PREDICTION: Koscheck by TKO late in the first.

Brad Imes vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

Surprise TUF2 heavyweight finalist Imes (3-1) returns after his entertaining brawl with Rashad Evans at the TUF2 live finale to face the more experienced ‘Napao’ (5-1).  The two could hardly have had more contrasting showings in their last fights.  Imes lost but his reputation grew after getting up off the canvas more than once in his chaotic rumble with his former housemate.  Gonzaga contributed half of a pitiful fight with Kevin Jordan at UFC 56.  Thankfully KO’ing Jordan late in the third the Brazilian ended over 14 minutes of misery for the audience with a silly but effective jumping punch.  In his defence, Gonzaga had some terrible family issues at the time and with that hopefully behind him we should have a better idea of what he’s really capable of this time.  He certainly has talent, holding a win over Branden Lee Hinkle and his only loss coming against Fabricio Werdum.

As for Imes, the former football player is still a big, raw beginner.  Huge at 6’7” and 265 pounds he’s a heavy handed brawler with a good chin and plenty of heart.  His submission and wrestling skills are a definite weakness but he’s still learning and anyone with his size and some training really should not be taken lightly.  He surprised everyone by beating Seth Petruzelli during TUF2 and while his fight with Evans wasn’t pretty it was exciting stuff and earned him a lot of new fans.  Before TUF2 Imes had only faced similarly inexperienced fighters on WEC events and ‘Napao’ is a big step up in class for him.  Gonzaga needs to take Imes down early and start working for a submission to test just how far Imes has come.  The big man may have improved a lot but Gonzaga’s much greater skill and experience should see him win this one inside the distance, possibly by submission.

PREDICTION: Gonzaga by submission late in the first.

Luke Cummo vs. Jason Von Flue

Serra jiu-Jitsu student Cummo (3-3) and Von Flue (11-4-1) are two of the most unusual, and intriguing characters to come through the TUF system so far.  Neither were expected to do much in TUF2.  Cummo was the bizarre comic book, yoga and health food geek picked last at the beginning but then made it to the final.  Real-life Chuck Liddell trainee Von Flue came into the house late and eliminated one of the series favourites, Jorge Gurgel.  Both are tall, aggressive and effective strikers who always look to keep the fight on their feet but Cummo is a much neater, more precise puncher and kicker while Von Flue is a messy, wild brawler.  Von Flue used his height, reach and sheer energy to grind out an entertaining decision win over Gurgel while Cummo brutally took apart Anthony Torres.  Cummo then upset the heavily favoured Sam Morgan, finishing the fight with a beautiful knee to the face.  Both have underrated ground skills too with Cummo defending and striking well from the bottom in the Morgan and Stevenson fights and Von Flue literally choking out Alex Karalexis with an unusual variation of an arm triangle at UFN3 after controlling much of the fight and surviving some shaky moments.  Von Flue also has good takedown defence and strong defensive skills on the mat.  Both men fought Joe Stevenson last year, with Cummo lasting the distance and Von Flue losing by armbar in a far more one-sided fight.

Not scheduling this fight for the main, live portion of the show is quite honestly, just weird.  These two are genuine characters and Cummo in particular has a great connection with the audience with his oddball, underdog charisma.  And given the way they match-up, this should be a very entertaining fight.  Both are well aware of the other’s striking skills so they will likely end up battling it out on the ground to test their opponent’s supposed main weakness.  But whether standing or on the mat, this should be a high quality fight.  Von Flue has far more experience but seems to cut easily.  He also just looks more ragged and vulnerable and has been KO’ed, TKO’ed and submitted in the past while Cummo has never been stopped.  A very smart fighter with precise punches, elbows, knees and kicks, Cummo should be able to cut him badly enough to pick up a stoppage win late in what looks to be a very even, very enjoyable fight.

PREDICTION: Cummo by TKO early in the third.

Josh Burkman vs. Jon Fitch

The Prangley-Sonnen fight is not the only AKA vs. Team Quest showdown at UFN4.  AKA’s Fitch (9-2) and coming off a close decision win over Brock Larson at UFN2, meets Team Quester and TUF2 housemate Burkman (6-2).  Fitch is coming off a pair of close wins that went the distance, the Larson fight and a heavily disputed decision victory over Jeff Joslin in a fantastic fight in Montreal in July 2005.  The Indiana native is an extremely strong, technically adept wrestler who likes to brawl.  With wins over Alex Serdyukov and Jorge Ortiz on the way to a one-night tournament win in December 2004, Fitch has also displayed excellent stamina.  Such endurance is not really a quality Burkman has needed of late.  At the TUF2 Finale he launched Sam Morgan skywards and KO’ed him with a slam in just 21 seconds and then at UFN3 he needed just 67 seconds to trap the experienced Drew Fickett in a guillotine.  Burkman was the first welterweight to score a victory during TUF2, scoring a hard-fought but well-deserved decision win over Melvin Guillard.  Even a broken arm caused by blocking one of Guillard’s powerful kicks barely slowed Burkman’s aggressive wrestling down.  This is probably the toughest fight of the entire show to predict.  Fitch has the edge in wrestling, with a much better college pedigree and both work with excellent camps.  Fitch is the more experienced and he has a very solid submission defence but Burkman may just catch him with a surprise submission the way he did against the even more experienced Fickett.  I’ll go for that but if there’s any fight on this show I wouldn’t dare to put money on, its Burkman-Fitch.

PREDICTION: Burkman by submission late in the second.

Predictions Re-cap:

Stephan Bonnar DEC3 Keith Jardine
Chris Leben KO1 Luigi Fioravanti
Joe Stevenson DEC3 Josh Neer
Rashad Evans DEC3 Sam Hoger
Trevor Prangley DEC3 Chael Sonnen
Josh Koscheck TKO1 Ansar Chalangov
Gabriel Gonzaga SUB1 Brad Imes
Luke Cummo TKO3 Jason Von Flue
Josh Burkman SUB2 Jon Fitch

April 6th
Hard Rock Café
Las Vegas