Further down the card, TUF1 stars Diego Sanchez and Mike Swick have a chance to shine and Nathan Marquardt gets a chance to redeem himself.  Not from the ‘steroid’ fiasco, but his abominable non-fight with Ivan Salaverry.  His opponent is one of Canada’s most consistent, talented fighters in Joe Doerksen and the winner could be in line for a middleweight title shot later this year or in 2007.  Rounding out the show are another outing for the likeable Kenny Florian, a pair of heavyweight matches and the return of the always exciting Yves Edwards.

Line-up:

UFC Middleweight title: Rich Franklin vs. David Loiseau
BJ Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre
Diego Sanchez vs. John Alessio
Nathan Marquardt vs. Joe Doerksen
Mike Swick vs. Steve Vigneault
Yves Edwards vs. Mark Hominick
Kenny Florian vs. Sam Stout
Jason Lambert vs. Rob MacDonald
Tom Murphy vs. Kristof Midoux

March 4th
Mandalay Bay, Las Vegas

UFC Middleweight title: Rich Franklin vs. David Loiseau

Despite the initial odds offered by some sportsbooks, this is a close fight.  UFC Middleweight Champion Franklin (19-1) is surely not so infallible that the red-hot Loiseau (14-4) should have opened as a 3/1 underdog?  The Canadian striker has been in blistering form in his last three fights and richly deserves his title shot.  In his last match, a mini-classic with former champion Evan Tanner at Ultimate Fight Night 2 last October Loiseau survived a horrible first round to slice and dice a win out of the veteran by mangling his face with those vicious, vicious elbows for the second round TKO.  But Loiseau had a horrible first round.  Twice taken down he spent most of the session avoiding Tanner’s continual submission attempts.  The Canadian landed some kicks early in the second but once again Tanner took him down and took control.  A quick reversal on the ground, a few sudden, violent elbows later and Tanner was bleeding.  A little more action and Loiseau opened up another cut with elbows and punches for the stoppage.  Before that, Loiseau dished up an eye-popping spinning back kick/flying knee/punches combination to finish off Charles McCarthy in the second round at UFC 53.  Fast, elusive, aggressive and exciting, ‘the Crow’ is one of the company’s most dynamic, entertaining fighters.  He hasn’t lost since being tapped out by Jeremy Horn at TKO 15 in early 2004.  Five months earlier he was in a stand-up war with Jorge Rivera at UFC 44, losing by decision in a close fight.  That’s the same Rivera who gave Franklin such a hellish struggle at UFC 50.

Like most of his country’s top fighters, Loiseau has plenty of UCC/TKO appearances under his belt and while he has a strong record up north, there are a few causes for concern.  His win over Curtis Stout was, by all accounts, something of a hometown decision and the alarming way he fell apart when Jason St. Louis caught him with a knee to the face and Jeremy Horn trapped him in a guillotine are all worries.  Against Horn, Loiseau seemed to just give up as soon as he was in even the slightest danger, offering no defence before tapping out just 54 seconds into the fight.  Loiseau has improved greatly since then.  More focused than ever on this massive opportunity, his striking seemingly getting better with each fight and his ground game usually good enough to ward off trouble, ‘the Crow’ is a genuine threat to Franklin’s title.

Worryingly, Loiseau often finds himself vulnerable on the ground but always manages to get out of trouble.  Franklin just doesn’t seem to get himself in those situations.  Superbly well-rounded, aggressive and efficient, the champion could be in for a long reign.  He’s also a monster at middleweight, having spent most of his career fighting at 205 pounds and should have a good advantage in strength over the Canadian challenger.  His only glaring weakness seems to be his chin.  And that one is still highly debatable.  Certainly, Ryoto Machida battered him in 2003, landing a beautiful punch and following up for the stoppage win, and Evan Tanner floored him in their otherwise utterly one-sided rematch.  And Jorge Rivera had him looking disorganised as well.  But even if Franklin’s chin is dodgy, few people get the chance to test it.  Franklin is an intelligent, reactive fighter.  The unorthodox striking Evan Tanner used to confuse, out-strike and outpoint Phil Baroni at UFC 48 barely troubled Franklin’s more correct, controlled kickboxing.  Franklin works well in the clinch and has good leg kicks and knees too.  He also exploits his reach and power to punish opponents, as he did while disfiguring Tanner and taking his title at UFC 53.

In Franklin’s first defence at UFC 56 he entered a near-flawless performance, stalking Nate Quarry and picking him apart before KO’ing him with a single, stunning shot that put the Team Quest veteran flat on his back, twitching uncontrollably as he slept on the mat.  Few gave Quarry a chance of winning but Franklin’s devastating finish was still well beyond expectations.  If Loiseau can’t use his speed to get inside and throw his elbows, he could be in real trouble and Franklin clearly has better developed ground skills.  The champion is also a little more experienced and has done better with their common opponents, TKO’ing Stout, beating Tanner twice (and not having any serious trouble along the way) and tapping out Rivera with an armbar.  Both are truly ruthless finishers (see Franklin’s merciless battering of Ken Shamrock and Loiseau’s of Weir or McCarthy) and the end to this one could come suddenly.  This is one of the very toughest fights out there for either man but Franklin just has more weapons available to him.  If he tries standing with Loiseau he’ll be in constant danger but if he mixes up his striking with wrestling and groundwork, he should walk away the stoppage winner of an enthralling fight.

PREDICTION: Franklin by TKO early in the third.

BJ Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre

Former Zuffa golden boy and Hawaiian fighting star Penn (10-2-1) returns to the UFC for his mouth-watering clash with Canada’s finest, ‘Rush’ St. Pierre (11-1).  Assertive as ever, Penn demanded a fight with St. Pierre as a condition of his return and despite the Canadian surely having earned a rematch with Matt Hughes, Zuffa obliged.  That may be one demand the cherubic islander may come to regret.  Last seen inside the Octagon shocking a ridiculously overconfident Matt Hughes for the welterweight title at UFC 46 in early 2004, Penn has been fighting in Hawaii and Japan for K-1’s MMA offshoots.  Unfortunately, something seems to have been missing.  True he routinely took down and choked out Duane Ludwig but his last 3 fights have all gone the distance.  And none of them have been particularly good.  First he decisioned Rodrigo Gracie.  A good fighter yes, but mechanical and predictable and Penn never looked like finishing him, despite completely dominating the last round.  Penn followed that by taking his ‘open weight’ philosophy a little too far and fighting 210-pounder Ryoto Machida.  A dull, unremarkable fight where neither man ever looked like doing much, Penn clearly had trouble with Machida’s size and strength.  Then, most recently, Penn decisioned Renzo Gracie.  That would be the almost 40 years old, Renzo Gracie.  The Renzo Gracie who hasn’t won a fight against a worthwhile opponent since 1999.  Even worse, Renzo won the first round and although Penn clearly won the fight, again he never looked like finishing off his opponent.

Many have put this down to Penn’s inconsistency.  After all, look at the way he beat Ludwig and Hughes, or the way he took out Takanori Gomi.  But perhaps Penn is simply overrated?  He’s a great fighter, with good stand-up skills, excellent BJJ and strong wrestling but he’s looked unimpressive pretty frequently.  His recent poor performances may have something to do with the extra weight he was carrying around his belly but that alone can’t explain how one-dimensional he looked.  He was a big underdog against Hughes for a very good reason.  Few should realistically have expected him to win the fight, even though he put on an amazing display and dominated Hughes from start to rear naked choke finish.  The Gomi he battered in late 2003 is very different to the Gomi of today.  The Gomi of 2003 was a decision-prone, often dull fighter.  Today’s Gomi is a finishing machine, seemingly incapable of being involved in a boring fight and an overall much improved fighter.  Penn though, seems to have regressed since that stunning submission win over Hughes.  He was ploddingly slow at times in his recent fights and seemed content with holding guard, clinching a lot, throwing a few punches and picking up decisions.  He’s capable of much more (though probably not as much as his most fervent believers think) and will need to be on top form against the Canadian.  If he fights the way he did against the Gracies, or in his laboured decision win over Matt Serra he’s in real trouble.

While a chubby Penn has been struggling of late, things have been very different for St. Pierre.  4-0 since his armbar loss to Hughes in what looked to be a premature title chance at UFC 50, ‘Rush’ has looked phenomenal of late.  A submission win over Dave Strasser eased him back into competition and then he just mauled a decision out of slippery nutter Jason ‘Mayhem’ Miller at UFC 52.  St. Pierre never let up for a second, dominating all the way against the extremely tough Miller.  Then came the stunning destruction of Frank Trigg and the total demolition of Sean Sherk.  Both were supposed to be tough fights for St. Pierre but made Trigg look like a complete beginner and didn’t just beat Sherk, he outwrestled him as well.

St. Pierre has incredible momentum and although Penn is his toughest opponent since the Hughes fight, there’s a very real chance St. Pierre will just run right over him.  Physically, Penn may have trouble with St. Pierre’s size, strength, speed and sheer athleticism.  St. Pierre is also a more varied, unpredictable striker, throwing high kicks, spinning back kicks as well as the kind of leg kick/punch style of striking preferred by Penn.  Both men have fast hands, very good chins and excellent stamina too.  BJJ black belt Penn has the definite edge in submission skill but St. Pierre’s wrestling his improved immeasurably over the last year or two.  Penn has been around for longer, and also fought in higher profile fights, but St. Pierre has been much more active.  Penn also has a tendency to slack off a little in fights (the first round against Renzo, several times in his draw with Caol Uno and in the close win over Serra) while St. Pierre just goes non-stop from bell to bell.  St. Pierre will need to be at his absoluter best but look for him to use his physical advantages and high-energy style to just overwhelm Penn and put him on the defensive from the outset.  Penn has an excellent defence (particularly his guard) and I doubt St. Pierre can beat him inside the distance, but over the course of three rounds, he should be able to pile up enough points for the biggest win of his career.

PREDICTION: St. Pierre by decision after three rounds.

Diego Sanchez vs. John Alessio

Undefeated TUF1 winner Sanchez (14-0) and California based British Columbian Alessio (16-7) have taken very different career paths.  Sanchez is one of the stars of the first season of TUF, a beacon to the Hispanic fanbase that Zuffa seem to feel is out there, and with a little more experience, a genuine contender at 170 pounds.  He’s also a charismatic trash-talker while Alessio is a quieter, lesser known, almost journeyman figure.  Long-time UFC fans may remember his first fight with the company, a UFC 26 dismantling at the hands of Pat Miletich almost five years ago.  With no wins of note, beside an 80-second submission win over the inconsistent Jay R. Palmer, he was thrown to the lions with Miletich.  Since then, ‘the Natural, has gone 10-3, fighting mainly for Montreal’s UCC/TKO promotion and KOTC.  During that time Alessio has beaten people like Thomas Denny, Chris Brennan, Eiji Mitsuoka and Ronald Jhun.  Those 3 losses have come only against quality opposition in Joe Doerksen, Jason Black and Johnathan Goulet, the latter two by decision.  That alone makes him a good test for the seemingly all-conquering ‘Nightmare’.

Sanchez should win this fight handily if he has title ambitions to back up his boasting.  But it may not be that easy.  Then again, few expected him to dominate Nick Diaz the way he did in their one-sided, enthrallingly high-energy grudge match in November.  That was a stunning performance from Sanchez and a real eye-opener for all the doubters (myself included).  Both Sanchez and Alessio have been at or around KOTC title-holder level but you just get the idea that while Alessio has had a good career and plenty of years left at a competitive level, Sanchez is the one going places.  He has some impressive pre-TUF wins over John Cronk and Jorge Santiago and has smashed Kenny Florian, obliterated Brian Gassaway and dominated Diaz since hitting the big time.  Look for Sanchez to put his powerful wrestling, aggression, sheer relentless and impressive BJJ to good effect.  His striking is still poor and if Alessio can stop his takedowns things could get interesting for a while but Sanchez is too good for Alessio and should beat him inside the distance.  Alessio has been submitted 5 times before, and while it hasn’t happened since late 2000, Sanchez has the skills to do it.

PREDICTION: Sanchez by submission late in the second round.

Mike Swick vs. Steve Vigneault

On paper, this one looks even more straightforward.  ‘Lionheart’ Vigneault (11-5) certainly lives up to his billing.  An all-action, never-say-die striker who loves to just go out there and swing.  Unfortunately for him, that makes him the perfect opponent for furious AKA puncher Swick (7-1).  Clocking up a mere 42 seconds in his two UFC appearances so far, ‘Quick’ Swick is also aptly named.  In April he overwhelmed fellow TUF1 contestant Alex Schoenauer in 20 seconds.  Four months later, and despite injuries that should have kept him watching the first Ultimate Fight Night at home on TV, he was in the Octagon, smashing apart Gideon Ray in just 22 seconds.  Finally healthy, Swick is back and facing a fighter who has dropped 2 of his last 3 fights.  Even worse for the Canadian, of those losses, Patrick Cote KO’ed him in 68 seconds and the mediocre Chris Fontaine finished him with a knee in 74 seconds.  Zuffa have clearly latched onto Swick’s massive potential and should be hoping he pulls off another fast, emphatic win here.  Vigneault should not be dismissed completely.  He’s a tough, experienced fighter but he’s no match for Swick at his devastating best.  The 26-year old may not be ready for the likes of Franklin and Loiseau yet, but Swick is well on the way.  Another fast, aggressive stoppage win is exactly what he needs and he should get it as well.  He may not finish Vigneault inside 30 seconds, but there’s a very good chance this one won’t make it past the first 3 minutes.

PREDICTION: Swick by KO midway through the first.

Nathan Marquardt vs. Joe Doerksen

Finally free of the messy ‘steroid’ fiasco that blew up after his UFC debut, former 2-time Middleweight Pancrase Marquardt (20-6-2) returns to battle the talented, experienced Doerksen (32-8).  Win or lose, both men need to impress and entertain here to retain their standing in the ultra-competitive 185 pound division.  At least Marquardt is coming off a win.  His Canadian opponent is 1-2 in his last 3 fights.  His UFC 54 decision loss to Matt Lindland was expected and certainly nothing to be ashamed of, but losing by submission to Jason MacDonald in October is a cause for concern.  The Lindland fight was a close, technical battle and Doerksen showed off plenty of the skills he’d used to amass his impressive record.  He followed that with a stoppage win over KOTC regular Brendan Seguin but the MacDonald loss was a real surprise.  A fighter with wins over Art Santore, Chris Leben, Patrick Cote, Denis Kang, John Alessio, Lee Murray and John Renken really should have beaten MacDonald.  It’s hard to believe Marquardt would have lost that fight.

Marquardt’s UFC debut was highly anticipated by insiders and the extremely well-rounded, experienced Colorado man looked set to make an impact in the 185 pound division.  Unfortunately he made a terrible first impression.  Both men were at fault but his fight with Ivan Salaverry was a complete disaster.  Fifteen minutes of such utter tedium that despite it being the main event it was edited off replay showings of the first Ultimate Fight Night.  Then came the unfounded steroid accusations and Marquardt’s UFC career was on ice after just one outing.  With all that behind him, he has to be motivated to really prove his worth here.  And despite the possibility of it being a bore and the very likely event of it going the distance, this is still a high-level fight between two very technically gifted men.  Doerksen mixes up his striking, wrestling and submissions to great effect, and so does Marquardt.  Both men started out in 1999 and between them have fought in almost 70 MMA fights.  Marquardt may be the better wrestler and slightly more polished striker.  He’s also been in there with, and beaten the likes of Kiuma Kunioku, Daiju Takase, Shonie Carter, Izuru Takeuchi and the impressive Kazuo Misaki.  Also, while Doerksen is dangerous with submissions, his own submission defence sometimes lets him down and Marquardt is a very intelligent, opportunistic fighter.  Stamina should not be a problem for either of them and it really comes down to who is just that little bit better.  And it looks as though Marquardt just has the edge in most areas.  Look for him to edge out the win in a close, competitive fight where both men have a real chance of winning right up to the end.  He needs a strong showing and I’m confident he’ll pull it off.

PREDICTION: Marquardt by decision after three rounds.

Yves Edwards vs. Mark Hominick

Thugjitsu Texan Edwards (28-9-1) makes a very welcome, long overdue and probably triumphant return to the Octagon against Ontario’s Hominick (9-4).  Highly skilled, fast, aggressive and always entertaining, Edwards is one of the best talents around.  Hominick, naturally smaller and much less experienced, has a difficult task ahead of him.  A UCC/TKO regular, the Team Tompkins fighter has fast hands and a good kickboxing background.  He’s won his last 4 fights, all of them inside the distance, against decent fighters like Stephane Vigneault and Ryan Diaz.  Hominick is a strong finisher and at only 23 years old has a bright future.  However a submission loss to the 1-3 Shane Rice (later avenged in style) raises plenty of questions.  Particularly against somebody like Edwards.

The 29-year old Edwards is essentially the uncrowned UFC Lightweight champion by virtue of his spectacular high kick KO of Josh Thomson at UFC 49 in August 2004.  In a fight that could easily have been for the vacant 155 pound crown had Zuffa chosen to carry on promoting the weightclass, Edwards unleashed an incredible enziguiri that knocked ‘the Punk’ senseless late in the first round.  Since then, Edwards has gone 3-1, hammering Naoyuki Kotani and picking up his second of two very controversial split decision wins over Hermes Franca (the first at UFC 47), shocking Dokonjonosuke Mishima with an armbar and going the distance in an extremely close fight with Joachim Hansen.  Those last two fights were in last October’s Pride: Bushido Lightweight tournament and really underline just how much more experience Edwards has at the top level.  A professional since 1997, Edwards has had some truly memorable wars, great performances and highlight reel finishes.  Look for another spectacular ending to this one.  Hominick has more than a ‘puncher’s chance’ but Edwards is just too good, too well-rounded, too experienced and will be the overwhelming favourite to finish this fight in style.

PREDICTION: Edwards by KO midway through the first.

Kenny Florian vs. Sam Stout

Massachussetts man Florian (3-2) finally gets to fight in his ‘real’ weight division of 155 pounds against Ontario’s Stout (8-1-1).  BJJ black belt ‘KenFlo’ did everyone a favour at the TUF2 Finale by tapping out insufferable Muay Thai braggart Kit Cope.  A smart, efficient fighter, Florian effectively tied up and neutralised the powerful striker and trashed his elbow with an armbar attempt late in the first round.  That left a crippled Cope easy prey for a rear naked choke early in the second.  It was Florian’s second win (the other against Alex Karalexis) since being smashed to defeat by Diego Sanchez in the TUF1 Middleweight Final.  Florian has certainly shown plenty of improvement since the first series of TUF and his formerly awkward striking is really starting to complement his impressive grappling skills.

TKO Lightweight champion Stout, still only 21 years old, is a former kickboxer on an impressive 8-fight winning streak in MMA.  Just 2 of those wins went the distance, as he claimed a unanimous decision over Tyler Jackson last April and took the TKO title from Donald Ouimet last July with a split decision.  Any lingering doubts over that win were erased 4 months later as Stout KO’ed Ouimet in a rematch.  Stout’s late 2004 KO win over Dave Goulet was a real cracker and look for him to come out firing kicks and punches in his UFC debut.  Florian handled Cope impressively but while the MTV loudmouth has a more impressive kickboxing pedigree than Stout, he simply doesn’t have the MMA experience of the Canadian.  Florian will look to tie Stout up and bring the fight to the mat as quickly as possible.  But Stout will be more than ready for that.  True, his ground game is a real weakness but he can pick off the TUF1 fighter off with leg kicks, movement and punches, while defending against takedowns on his way to an impressive stoppage win.

PREDICTION: Stout by KO midway through the second.

Jason Lambert vs. Rob MacDonald

Aggressive Californian Lambert (19-5) faces TUF2 heavyweight contestant MacDonald (3-0) and should be confident of making a winning UFC debut.  MacDonald, a teammate of Sam Stout and Mark Hominick, has never faced anyone with Lambert’s skills and experience.  The powerfully built 6’3” Canadian struggled through his TUF2 fight against Brad Imes with a nasty shoulder injury.  The much smaller Macdonald had his moments but a guillotine choke attempt with his bad arm may not have been the wisest move.  Clearly in serious pain (whatever Matt Hughes thinks) MacDonald ended up tapping out to the world’s slowest triangle choke as Imes finished him late in the first round.  MacDonald didn’t show much, aside from tremendous heart, in that fight but now, with his size advantage, a few extra months of training and a fully healed shoulder, MacDonald may spring a surprise or two.

Former heavyweight Lambert has picked up some impressive wins since dropping to 205 pounds and is currently riding a 5-fight winning streak.  A strong, relentless wrestler with decent striking skills and incredible determination, Lambert has not lost since dropping a decision to Chael Sonnen in late 2003.  He’s forced a submission out of Matt Horwich, tapped out the otherwise unbeaten Richard Montoya, decisioned Marvin Eastman and most recently, KO’ed Travis Wiuff.  Lambert may have been a little fortunate to pick up the spilt decision against Eastman since he was dropped in each of the three rounds and looked out of it on a couple of occasions but he always recovered quickly and came back fighting.  He showed some good all-round skills, real aggression, a great chin and plenty of heart in a thrilling fight with the former UFC fighter.  Anyone with real UFC ambitions shouldn’t need a split decision to beat Eastman but even if Lambert won’t be troubling the division’s best he will still be too good for MacDonald.  Look for Lambert to take MacDonald down and pound his way to a TKO victory.

PREDICTION: Lambert by TKO late in the first.

Tom Murphy vs. Kristof Midoux

Another TUF2 heavyweight who fought injured during the series, Murphy (4-1) dropped a decision in an absolutely horrible fight with Rashad Evans.  Murphy showed little potential and in fact seemed to do nothing for the full 15 minutes.  While his knee injury may have given him real trouble in that fight, and he did have surgery a few days later it’s still a surprise that Zuffa would bring him in.  But really, if Murphy couldn’t do anything with Evans, I don’t like his chances against Kristof Midoux (5-5).  The Canadian-based Frenchman may only have a mediocre record but he’s faced much tougher opposition than Murphy, has been fighting since 1999 and has trained some of Canada’s best.  While he no longer trains with Midoux, it’s unlikely Georges St. Pierre would have had anything like the success he’s enjoyed without the bull-necked submission artist guiding him early in his career.  Midoux has few wins of note but has been on the losing end against Jeremy Horn, Fabricio Werdum, Antoine Jaoude and, of course, Sylvester Terkay.  The Bruiser Brody impersonator may not be the world’s best fighter but with his size, strength and wrestling skill, Terkay can be a real handful.  He’d make mincemeat out of Murphy, and so should Midoux.  Look for the skilled, heavy-handed ‘French Hurricane’ to control the action before finishing Murphy on the mat.

PREDICTION: Midoux by submission late in the first.

Predictions Re-cap:

Rich Franklin TKO3 David Loiseau
Georges St. Pierre DEC3 BJ Penn
Diego Sanchez SUB2 John Alessio
Nathan Marquardt DEC3 Joe Doerksen
Mike Swick KO1 Steve Vigneault
Yves Edwards KO1 Mark Hominick
Sam Stout KO2 Kenny Florian
Jason Lambert TKO1 Rob MacDonald
Kristof Midoux SUB1 Tom Murphy