At 205 pounds, Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral takes on Mike Van Arsdale in a fight that could turn into a grappling masterclass.  Alessio Sakara, so impressive in his UFC debut, meets Elvis Sinosic while TUF2 contestants Keith Jardine and Mike Whitehead drop weight and meet each other.  Justin Eilers returns from the infamous Andrei Arlovski beating to fight at 205, facing unbeaten braggart Brandon Vera.  At heavyweight, it’s grappling city as former UFC heavyweight champion, promotional golden boy and careless motorcyclist Frank Mir finally returns from injury to face ADCC star Marcio ‘Pe De Pano’ Cruz.  Interestingly, Cruz’ submission grappling nemesis Jeff Monson also returns to UFC after 4 years to take on wrestler Branden Lee Hinkle.  With all that grappling talent on show the fight between Paul Buentello and necomer Gilbert Aldana should provide some real stand-up action.  Finally, in the only fight below 205, Nick Diaz and Joe Riggs come back quickly from high profile defeats, fighting it out for contention in the talent-gorged welterweight division.

Line-up:

UFC Light Heavyweight title: Chuck Liddell vs. Randy Couture
Frank Mir vs. Marcio Cruz
Renato Sobral vs. Mike Van Arsdale
Alessio Sakara vs. Elvis Sinosic
Brandon Vera vs. Justin Eilers
Paul Buentello vs. Gilbert Aldana
Jeff Monson vs. Branden Lee Hinkle
Nick Diaz vs. Joe Riggs
Keith Jardine vs. Mike Whitehead

February 4th
MGM Grand
Las Vegas

UFC Light Heavyweight title: Chuck Liddell vs. Randy Couture

It’s finally here, the decider in UFC’s biggest and most profitable rivalry.  Both Liddell (17-3) and Couture (14-7) are coming off impressive inside-the-distance victories against very tough opponents.  Both men are routinely listed as among the 205 pound division’s absolute best.  And both hold a stoppage win over the other.  In their first fight at UFC 43 back in June 2003, Couture (after a real struggle in keeping Liddell down) bashed out a TKO win midway through the third round of a very tough fight to claim the vacant/interim UFC Light Heavyweight crown.  Almost two years later, in April 2005, they met again at UFC 52 and Liddell shocked many by achieving something nobody had ever done before.  He cleanly KO’ed ‘the Natural’ with a perfect counter, a nasty right hand that folded Couture up on the floor and finally gave Liddell the title just 2:06 into the first round.  In the first fight, Couture used his superior wrestling and conditioning to grind Liddell down.  In the second Liddell took advantage of Couture’s over-eagerness to stand with him.  Couture had controlled much of the striking in their first fight and was keen to do the same at UFC 52, until Liddell unleashed one of his trademark right hands.  So, who wins this one?

Both men looked great in their only fights since UFC 52.  In the UFC 54 main event, Liddell gave Jeremy Horn a thorough beating to defend his belt and avenge his 1999 loss to incredibly experienced darling of internet forums.  Liddell looked excellent in that fight, using his incredible takedown defence, a smart gameplan and those powerful, unorthodox punches to break Horn down for a fourth round TKO.  It was an effective, composed and truly satisfying performance from the champion and should have settled all the nonsense about his supposed stamina problems.  The truth is, a fully fit, well-prepared Liddell has excellent stamina, especially when he can dictate the pace and flow of the fight.  That’s exactly what he did with Horn – brushing aside every takedown, smartly avoiding the temptation to follow up on the ground once he’d hurt Horn (thereby putting himself in danger on the mat) – on his way to a totally commanding first title defence.

At the same event, the seemingly-ageless Couture had a cracking fight with Mike Van Arsdale.  The first round featured some of the best, most evenly-contested, entertaining wrestling ever seen in a UFC fight.  Van Arsdale landed a couple of jabs early on and a few nice uppercuts at the halfway point but much of the first three minutes saw them swapping takedowns and reversals.  The always thinking, always prepared Couture even brought a few new tricks into the octagon with him – firing off knees to Van Arsdale’s shoulder and looking for an anaconda choke – that helped him take the first round.  Van Arsdale opened the second with some nice jabs but a couple of decent punches from Couture set up a takedown and he went to work with those knees again and trying to roll into the anaconda choke.  Controlling Van Arsdale for the first half of the round, Couture was just wearing his opponent down – leaching his energy with his fast-paced, never-ending offense.  Van Arsdale landed some nice punches on their feet but Couture easily took the round and by the end, Van Arsdale was looking exhausted.  The final round opened with couture grinning at his gassed-out opponent and just 52 seconds later finally trapped him with the anaconda choke for Couture’s first submission win since he crushed Finnish boxer/pro wrestler/politician/lunatic Tony Halme in both men’s MMA debuts way back at UFC 13 in May 1997.

So what do those UFC 54 fights tell us?  Well, Liddell’s takedown defence has never looked better.  He was totally prepared and focused and made Horn pay for having beaten him 6 years earlier.  It may have been one of the finest performances of Liddell’s career and he looks to be in his prime.  For Couture though, there are one or two worries, despite his dominance over Van Arsdale.  Firstly, he was tagged a few times with punches and Van Arsdale is hardly a noted striker.  Couture seemed so focused on the takedowns that he didn’t mind charging in and brushing aside those punches.  But that wouldn’t be a good strategy against Liddell.  Of course, Couture is a masterly tactician (go and listen to some of the advice he gives his team during the first series of TUF) and is unlikely to make those mistakes with Liddell.  His stamina is unquestioned and even at the age of 42 he was bouncing around happily after ten exhausting minutes with Van Arsdale.  Of course, Couture’s age is always brought up and now at 43 you do have to start questioning just how long he can keep this up.  It’s not even really the fighting, but the training that takes so much effort and puts such a strain on the body.  Can Couture really keep up the same pace now as he did just 7 months ago when preparing for Van Arsdale?  Couture has supposedly talked privately about this being his last fight which could mean his dedication to training, or his ability to do it, is finally waning.  Of course, it could just fire him up so he can prove everyone wrong and lift the title yet again and recent reports have Couture signing a new 3-fight deal.  Still, motivation shouldn’t be a problem for either man with so much on the line in such a high-profile fight.  The fracturing of Team Quest and Couture’s move to Las Vegas could have both positive and negative impacts while Liddell has, as ever, been training with his usual team in San Luis Obispo.

The real key to this fight will be their gameplans and how well they execute them, or keep their opponent from doing so.  Of course, Couture needs to use his wrestling and Liddell needs to stop him.  In their first fight Couture had terrible problems keeping Liddell on his back once he got him there, and since then nobody has really taken Liddell down at all.  Liddell has looked phenomenal of late and this is a tough fight to call.  If it goes into the later stages it should theoretically favour Couture but that depends on how much punishment he has to take along the way.  But you can’t ignore Liddell’s KO win over ‘the Natural’ or his performance against Horn.  It won’t be anything like as quick as the last one, but I have a feeling Liddell, after surviving a couple of very tough early rounds where Couture outwrestles and outworks him, will land a few big punches for another stoppage win over the legend.

PREDICTION: Liddell by TKO early in the third.

Frank Mir vs. Marcio Cruz

After some 19 months on the shelf, during which rumours of his retirement, lack of dedication to his rehabilitation and training and his reluctance to ever fight Andrei Arlovski, were rife, Mir (8-1) is finally back.  Widely hailed as the UFC heavyweight division’s finest grappler after a pair of lightning-fast submission wins over Lion’s Den veteran Pete Williams and BJJ black belt Roberto Traven in late 2001 and early 2002, Mir was Zuffa’s golden boy.  Even his painful UFC 38 mauling at the hands of Ian Freeman only delayed his ascendancy as he then scored 4 wins in a row.  First he tapped out washed-up slugger Tank Abbott at UFC 41, then ‘earned’ a win over Wes Sims at UFC 43 by having his face stamped on.  Rightfully DQ’ed for his idiocy, Sims actually had Mir in trouble and if he’d chosen to punch instead of use his gargantuan feet who knows what might have happened.  Mir beat Sims again at UFC 46, this time fighting off exhaustion to flatten the big man with a lovely knee/punch/elbow combo for the only KO of his career.  Surely wins over Abbott and Sims didn’t really earn Mir a shot at the vacant heavyweight title but Zuffa were looking at giving him a title shot after the expected win over Freeman so, with that and the chronic lack of credible heavyweights under contract, he got his chance.  Many expected Sylvia to hammer Mir, using his height and reach, and better striking to keep Mir at bay long enough to pick up a KO or TKO win.  Foolishly, Sylvia took Mir down and paid for it with a gruesomely snapped forearm in just 50 seconds.  Of course, that was the last we saw of Mir in action, as he shattered his leg a few months later in a motorcycle crash.  This will certainly be an interesting comeback fight for the arrogant Las Vegas submission artist.

Cruz (1-0) is an elite grappler, with a string of BJJ accomplishments and an excellent record in ADCC tournaments.  He’s easily the best pure grappler Mir has ever faced but his MMA debut raised plenty of questions.  The chubby Cruz showed off some horrid striking technique and gassed out quickly in his second round win over the limited Keigo Kunihara at UFC 55.  Mir is likely to be rusty and tentative after his long layoff but with his experience and better striking, he should win this fight.  Mir’s gameplan will be crucial though.  Does he try and make a statement by grappling with Cruz and beating him at his own game?  Or does he take the safer option of using his underrated wrestling to block takedowns and keep the fight standing?  It’s not often Mir is the better striker, nor would he normally want to extend a fight into the second and third round, due to his own heavily suspect stamina, but he has the edge on Cruz in both categories.  Look for Mir to control the fight, picking off Cruz with punches and leg kicks, sprawling away from his takedowns and when they do hit the mat, using his own considerable submission skills to stay out of trouble.  A couple of rounds of that should have Cruz utterly exhausted and easy prey for the kind of TKO finish Mir pulled off in the Sims rematch.

PREDICTION: Mir by TKO midway through the third.

Renato Sobral vs. Mike Van Arsdale

Former Marco Ruas standout and current Gracie Barra star ‘Babalu’ (25-5) is in the midst of the best and most successful run of a professional fighting career now entering it’s 8th year.  Undefeated in his last 9 fights, Sobral should earn a UFC title shot if he can get past Van Arsdale (8-2).  Busier than ever in 2005, Sobral competed in 3 MMA fights, a few BJJ tournaments and picked up a bronze medal in Greco-Roman wrestling at the Pan-Americans – with little specific training, in a weightclass where he was by far the smallest competitor.  Very impressive stuff from the man whose only MMA defeats have come against Chuck Liddell, Kevin Randleman, Fedor Emelianenko, Valentijn Overeem and Dan Henderson.  A wild, heavy handed brawler with a decent wrestling base when he first appeared in RINGS, Sobral has matured into one of the sport’s best 205 pounders.  His slick armbar win over Travis Wiuff at UFC 52 and his triangle choke win over Chael Sonnen at UFC 54 (not to mention the heelhook that had Sonnen screaming in agony earlier in the fight) are clear evidence of his much-improved submission game.  Sobral has excellent stamina too and is always able to go the distance if he needs to.

Van Arsdale first fought under MMA rules in 1998 but after being annihilated by Wanderlei Silva in his fifth fight, disappeared for almost 4 years.  He resurfaced with a commanding win over Australian RINGS veteran Chris Haseman and a decision win over John Marsh at UFC 52 earned him a fight with Randy Couture.  Tapped out by the ever-resourceful legend early in the third, Van Arsdale was already exhausted and if ‘Babalu’ can push a similar pace as Couture did, then the 40-year old will be in trouble here.  Van Arsdale has an excellent wrestling background with plenty of international experience and an NCAA championship at 167 pounds, but that was many years ago.  Sobral’s Pan-American exploits are much more recent, in some ways more impressive, and he also has more weapons to win the fight with.  Van Arsdale has a nice, clean striking technique with some good jabs but Sobral has murderous legkicks and will use them to set up takedowns and flurries of punches.  Look for Sobral to overwhelm Van Arsdale with aggressive, if none-too accurate, strikes before they go to the ground.  He’ll certainly have trouble keeping Van Arsdale down but as soon as he sees an opening look for the Brazilian to pick up his 5th straight tapout win, most likely with an armbar.

PREDICTION: ‘Babalu’ by submission early in the second.

Alessio Sakara vs. Elvis Sinosic

Heavily tattooed Rome born, Rio based ‘Legionarius’ Sakara (7-3) made a bittersweet UFC 55 debut.  The 24-year old almost stopped an outclassed Ron Faircloth inside the first minute.  Displaying the kind of fast, accurate boxing rarely seen in MMA, Sakara was utterly dominant for the rest of the opening round.  That was until Faircloth landed a kick right in the nuts just 4 seconds into the second round.  An agonised Sakara couldn’t continue and ended up in the hospital, the fight ending in an unfortunate No Contest.  Sakara is also a professional boxer, debuting in August 2004 and currently holding a 6-1 record.  Although it has to be said, the Brazilian and Italian boxing scenes are hardly the best and he was KO’ed in his only meaningful fight so far.  Sakara is more than just a boxer though.  Training with the Brazil Dojo and the likes of Ebenezer Fontes Braga, Leopoldo Montenegro and Ronaldo Souza, Sakara is a talented, well-rounded fighter.  He showed that in whaling away on the very tough Faircloth with a relentless barrage of elbows through the American’s guard.  He also showed some skills and plenty of heart in his decision loss to Assuerio Silva in October 2004.  Sakara really has few MMA wins of note but has enormous potential.  The likeable Australian veteran will be a stiff test for him.

‘The King of Rock n’ Rumble’ (6-8-2) made a surprising return to UFC as a late replacement for Ian Freeman at UFC 55.  Matched up with promotional golden boy Forrest Griffin, Sinosic wasn’t expected to win, unless he pulled off the kind of surprise submission he did against Jeremy Horn 4 years before at UFC 30.  That shock armbar earned him a title shot at Tito Ortiz where Sinosic was quickly smashed to pieces and stopped on cuts.  Two more UFC losses – again on cuts to Evan Tanner at UFC 36 and a frightful beating at the hands of ‘Babalu’ Sobral at UFC 38 appeared to have ended Sinosic’s UFC career.  A 2-1-1 record since then doesn’t look much but Sinosic pushed Pancrase and Pride regular Sanae Kikuta all the way before losing a decision in a very entertaining grappling based match, and drew with Pride survivor Daijiro Matsui.  Long considered a terrible striker despite an excellent reach, Elvis also KO’ed Roberto Traven.  Still, Griffin was expected to win, and he did.  But Machado BJJ black belt Sinosic’s performance surprised many.  Sinosic controlled the first couple of minutes, landing leg kicks and right and left hands on the ragged TUF1 co-winner.  Soon though, the aggressive Griffin started getting through with punches and knees, hurting Sinosic a couple of times before flooring him with a big left hook, prompting the stoppage 3:22 into a short, exciting fight.  A master at BJJ but still awkward with his wrestling and striking, if Sinosic tries standing with Sakara, he’s in for a very short, painful night, but if he can weather the storm long enough to bring Sakara to the mat then things could turn around very quickly.  The longer it goes the higher the chances of Elvis using those long legs to trap Sakara with a triangle or an armbar.  A very intelligent veteran, Sinosic is very capable of winning this.  But I’m leaning towards Sakara’s aggression and striking skill to bring him a KO victory and easily the biggest win of his career.

PREDICTION: Sakara by KO early in the second.

Paul Buentello vs. Gilbert Aldana

At UFC 51, AKA puncher Mike Kyle faced an undefeated young fighter with a reputation for hammering his opponents.  That fighter was James Irvin, and he’d amassed a superficially impressive record on the Gladiator Challenge circuit.  Kyle absolutely wasted him.  Now, the same backstory is in place as Kyle’s teammate Buentello (19-8) meets Aldana (5-0).  Will the outcome be any different?  Very experienced, with some nice striking skills and real power, Buentello has lost just twice in the past 4 and a half years – dropping a decision to sometime fighter, sometime criminal Bobby Hoffman (which Buentello avenged 3 months later) and being flattened in 15 seconds with a single Andrei Arlovski punch at UFC 55.  A professional fighter since April 1997, Buentello has fought some very good fighters.  True, he’s lost plenty of fights and shown some weakness against submissions, but his biggest problem may be his stamina.  In his UFC 53 win over Kevin Jordan, Buentello was gasping like an ill-prepared charity marathon runner early in the fight.  Some have questioned his chin after the Arlovski fight but realistically, if the Belarussian hits anyone as perfectly as that (with the possible exception of Mark Hunt and Kazayuki Fujita) they’re going down.  Also, that was the only clean KO loss of Buentello’s long career.  In any case, it’s unlikely Aldana will be testing Buentello’s ground game or endurance, because this going to be a brawl.

Debuting in April 2004, Brausa Academy powerhouse Aldana has taken, on average, less than a minute to finish off his opponents, all of them by KO or TKO.  The longest he’s ever taken is 1:55.  The shortest?  His 3 second debut.  The Arizona native has also recorded wins in 15 and 30 seconds.  However, those fights were all on his local Rage in the Cage shows, against no-name opponents with combined career records of 9-18.  This will be a gigantic step forwards for the squat, explosive Aldana.  Unless the newcomer can land the kind of firecracker shot Arlovski did, Buentello should be able to slow Aldana down and pick him apart with jabs and counters before scoring the KO win.

PREDICTION: Buentello by KO late in the first.

Jeff Monson vs. Branden Lee Hinkle

Unbeaten in his last 8 fights, RINGS veteran Hinkle (12-6) had it very easy last time, facing the pathetically ill-prepared Sean Gannon in an atrocious UFC 55 mismatch.  Somehow Hinkle still didn’t look particularly impressive (aside from some vicious elbows) in taking down the worst UFC fighter in recent memory and bludgeoning him to a thoroughly predictable first round defeat.  Hinkle is something of a throwback to a few years ago, seemingly stuck with a late 1990s Hammerhouse mentality of ground n’ pound with little regard for anything else.  A very talented freestyle wrestler with accolades at NCAA and All-American level, Hinkle loves to take people down and bash away with his fists and elbows.  His stand-up and submission games are pretty rudimentary though.  He’s used his power, aggression and wrestling to score wins over Masanori Suda, Travis Fulton, Jorge Rivera, Daisuke Watanabe and Tom Sauer but Monson will be an extremely difficult opponent.  Particularly as Hinkle has been tapped out in 5 of his 6 losses – being finished off by the likes of Gabriel Gonzaga, Volk Han and Carlos Barretto.

He may have all the political sophistication of a freshman politics student at a low-rent left-wing university, but Monson (19-5) is a very, very good fighter.  Currently riding a mighty 13-fight winning streak, the reigning Cage Warriors Heavyweight titleholder is an excellent grappler with great wrestling and superb BJJ skills.  With Tengiz Tedoradze (twice) and rising star Devin Cole among his recent victims, the American Top Team veteran is a dangerous fighter, particularly in Zuffa’s weakest weightclass.  Long criticised for his reliance on grappling, ‘the Snowman’ has even branched out into professional boxing and has a 2-0-1 record, albeit against meagre opposition.  Vastly improved since his last UFC appearance, a deathly dull TKO loss to Ricco Rodriguez, this is a different Monson.  Indeed, a rematch with the ever-expanding former UFC Heavyweight Champion would be very different.  Monson was excellent in his last fight – a fast, efficient choking out of oversized Frenchman Emmanuel Marc in November.  On the back of his recent success, the desire the return to the UFC with a bang and his opponent’s weaknesses, Monson should win this one in style.  Look for him to finish Hinkle off with a choke.

PREDICTION: Monson by submission late in the first.

Brandon Vera vs. Justin Eilers

Undefeated Vera (5-0) and Miletich fighter Eilers (9-4-1) could barely have had more different experiences in their last UFC outings.  ‘The Truth’ Vera made his UFC debut at Ultimate Fight Night 2 last October, taking an impressive win over the massive Fabiano Scherner.  Leaner, faster and quicker than the impressively muscled Brazilian, San Diego based Vera showed off some very solid ground skills and sweet leg kicks in the first round.  In the second, Vera landed some more brutal leg kicks, as well as stiff jabs before brutalising Scherner’s midsection with knees from a Muay Thai clinch before finishing the fight with a perfect knee to the face.  Afterwards, and even beforehand Vera talked about dropping to 205 and fighting Chuck Liddell.  Vera, trained by Dutch kickboxing legend Rob Kaman, is a very ‘confident’ fighter and last year accepted the open challenge of a spectacularly drunken Tank Abbott at an MMA show in Mexico.  Abbott of course, didn’t actually fight but Vera was more than ready.  Eilers will present a genuine challenge though.

Eilers last UFC outing was an absolute nightmare.  Eilers was gifted a ludicrous heavyweight title shot at Andrei Arlovski at UFC 53, despite coming off a comprehensive KO loss to Paul Buentello at UFC 51.  Arlovski didn’t just utterly outclass and KO him in less than a round – he left Eilers in a crumpled, battered heap with obliterated knee ligaments, two broken hands and a broken nose.  Now, fully recovered and newly slimmed down to 205, Eilers returns to find Vera standing in his way.  Sporting a 1-2 UFC record with his lone victory coming by a crushing KO over college roommate Mike Kyle, Eilers is a heavy-handed brawler with sound wrestling skills.  Whether he has the striking technique to trouble the gifted Vera on his feet is debatable but Eilers is a decent wrestler who’s strong and explosive.  Those losses to Buentello and Arlovski make Eilers look chinny but he can take some punishment.  Eilers is good at handing it out as well, picking up 7 wins with his fists.  Vera’s ground game looked good against Scherner and regularly working with Dean Lister and Eddie Bravo will sharpen his mat skills even more.  But given the way both men fight this one will probably be decided on their feet.  Look for Vera’s skill and wider variety of striking weapons to overcome Eilers’ aggressive brawling style and finish the fight with another violently picturesque knockout.

PREDICTION: Vera by KO late in the first.

Nick Diaz vs. Joe Riggs

Given their near-legendary self-confidence levels, it’s hard to imagine anything damaging Diaz and Riggs’ egos.  But their recent losses may have at least made a dent.  Riggs (23-7) was quickly and totally outclassed by Matt Hughes, while Diaz (11-4) dropped a unanimous decision in a one-sided thriller to Diego Sanchez.  Riggs’ loss was certainly expected – he was drafted in as a late replacement for Karo Parisyan at UFC 56 and simply isn’t good enough to beat Hughes – but the Diaz result at the TUF2 Finale, was a pretty big surprise.  Unable to stop Sanchez’ relentless takedowns, nor able to come close to a submission from his back, Diaz was simply bullied out of the fight.  Riggs looked phenomenal in his welterweight debut against Chris Lytle, becoming the first man to ever stop the ultra-tough Indiana man inside the distance.  But weight-cutting problems left Riggs overweight for his supposed ‘big chance’ and the Hughes fight became a non-title affair.  Everything is apparently fine now and Riggs should have no excuses if he loses.  While Riggs has a huge weight and strength advantage over most fighters at 170, he still has a very fundamental problem.  While dangerous, he just doesn’t have the ground skills to really excel against the best.  His punches are thunderous, his wrestling strong and he has plenty of aggression, but remains weak with submissions.  That’s not a good thing when facing Cesar Gracie protégé, Diaz.

Matt Hughes did it with a Kimura, Ivan Salaverry set up a sweet triangle with a couple of nasty upkicks and, just over 2 years ago, Alex Stiebling rode out a hellish beating to trap the over-aggressive, careless Riggs with a triangle of his own.  Diaz can add his name to that list of people with submission wins over ‘Diesel’.  True, Diaz has only picked up 4 MMA wins by submission, the most impressive being against Joe Hurley and Jeremy Jackson but he has some serious BJJ skills and holds a win in no-Gi competition over Jorge ‘Macaco’ Patino.  Recently, Diaz has concentrated more on his striking, stunning Robbie Lawler at UFC 47, before beating Drew Fickett at UFC 51 and wasting Koji Oishi at UFC 53.  A fast, unorthodox counter-puncher, Diaz is dangerous with his fists and will relish the chance to show off his striking with Riggs.  That may not be the best approach though.  Diaz has only been stopped once, by Jackson in their first match in late 2002 but Riggs has genuine power.  Diaz recent losses – to Sanchez and to Parisyan at UFC 49 were both because his opponent jumped all over him and kept up a sustained, relentless attack, not giving him room to work.  Rigg’s stamina at 170 is untested and as long as Diaz doesn’t just hang his chin out there for the Arizona puncher he should win this fight.  Diaz needs to take this to the ground where his vastly superior skill should negate Riggs’ strength and aggression.

PREDICTION: Diaz by submission early in the second.

Keith Jardine vs. Mike Whitehead

Neither Jardine (9-1-1) nor Whitehead (9-4) won their only fights during the TUF2 series.  Jardine at least put up a fight against Rashad Evans, despite being floored early and losing a unanimous decision.  Whitehead’s complete non-performance against the same fighter was a different story.  A humiliating display that saw some vicious browbeating from Matt Hughes and ultimately, Whitehead leaving the Miletich camp.  Formerly Tim Sylvia’s regular sparring partner, Whitehead was touted as one of TUF2’s favourites throughout the series.  Hampered by a nasty staph infection, Whitehead entered a terribly passive performance that saw him do almost nothing on his way to an unarguable decision loss.  Weighing in at a hefty 250 or so for TUF2, Whitehead has now dropped down to 205 where, if he carries his physical strength with him, he could be dangerous.  The Evans fight aside, and it will surely take him a long time to live that one down, Whitehead is a good fighter.  He showed that in his wins over Travis Fulton, Aaron Brink, Brian Stromberg and Ben Rothwell.  Two of his losses were by TKO against future teammate Sylvia and the others were by split decision and because of injury.  Solid in all aspects and a good wrestler he doesn’t do anything superbly but can wear down his opponents with a sustained assault both on his feet and on the ground.

Jardine, a teammate of TUF1 star Diego Sanchez in Alburquerque, New Mexico clearly has the edge in submission skills.  A natural light heavyweight who bulked up for TUF2, Jardine won’t face the same danger of being weight-drained Whitehead may have to deal with.  Before TUF2, Jardine was impressive – armbarring Amir Rahnavardi and Arman Gambaryan and battering Bryan Pardoe and drawing with Pancrase veteran Keiichiro Yamamiya.  His only loss was a stunning 6-second KO against Travis Wiuff, 4 years ago.  At the TUF2 Finale, Jardine took out the much larger Kerry Schall with leg kicks.  This could be a very evenly fight match.  Both have a good set of skills but Whitehead, preparing in Utah with Billy Rush, Joe Riggs, Jeremy Horn and Travis Wiuff these days, may have the crucial edge in wrestling that sees him take the fight.  Look for Whitehead to control Jardine in the clinch and on the ground and grind out a tough win.

PREDICTION: Whitehead by unanimous decision.

Predictions Re-cap:

Chuck Liddell TKO3 Randy Couture

Frank Mir TKO3 Marcio Cruz

Renato Sobral SUB2 Mike Van Arsdale

Alessio Sakara KO2 Elvis Sinosic

Paul Buentello KO1 Gilbert Aldana

Jeff Monson SUB1 Branden Lee Hinkle

Brandon Vera KO1 Justin Eilers

Nick Diaz SUB2 Joe Riggs

Mike Whitehead DEC3 Keith Jardine