With matches featuring local favourites Ross ‘Da Boss’ Ebanez and Wesley ‘Cabbage’ Correira, as well as boxer/Toughman/K-1 and MMA fighter Eric ‘Butterbean’ Esch there should be plenty of paying customers on January 20th.  But most importantly, ROTR 8 will also see the opening round of a tournament to crown the promotion’s first Welterweight (175 pounds in this case) champion.  A line-up featuring Cesar Gracie trained Shooto veteran Jake Shields, former UFC Middleweight king Dave Menne, top grappler and UFC veteran Renato ‘Charuto’ Verrissimo and Albuquerque dangerman Carlos Condit would be impressive enough, but that’s just the top bracket.  Throw in Brazilian star and Cage Rage World Middleweight champion Anderson Silva, Japanese GCM regular Yushin Okami, UFC veteran and Pride commentator Frank Trigg and experienced Hawaiian Ronald Jhun, and you have a fascinating tournament whose semi-finals and final will be held in April.  This is just the beginning though.  Once they’re down to the final four, things will get very interesting.

Tournament Line-up:

Jake Shields vs. Dave Menne
Renato ‘Charuto’ Verrissimo vs. Carlos Condit
Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami
Frank Trigg vs. Ronald Jhun

January 20th 2006
Blaisdell Arena, Honolulu, Hawaii

Jake Shields vs. Dave Menne

Cesar Gracie protégé Shields (11-4-1) may have been justifiably tagged with the dreaded “boring” label, but he’s still a very talented fighter.  Decision wins in Shooto over Hayato Sakurai, Milton Viera and Akira Kikuchi in late 2002 and 2003 brought Shields, still in his early 20s, to international attention after spending the earlier part of his professional career in smaller events like Gladiator Challenge.  As you’d expect from one of Cesar Gracie’s boys, Shields is an accomplished fighter on the mat and has the potential to beat anyone in this tournament.  Despite that, his striking is sometimes lacking and he needs to be more aggressive and less methodical.  He’s only lost to Marty Armanderez (in his second pro fight), Phillip Miller (a talented wrestler who quit MMA 2003 with a 16-0 record), Hawaiian veteran Ray Cooper and Kikuchi in a rematch.  Of those defeats, only Armanderez finished Shields inside the distance.  In Shields’ only Pancrase appearance, he drew with the gifted Kazuo Misaki.

Former UFC Middleweight champion Menne (38-12-2) is easily the most experienced man in the field.  Debuting in April 1997, the Minneapolis native had fought 6 times before the end of his first month, going 5-1, and losing only to Shonie Carter.  Since then, Menne has been all over the place, beating Dennis Hallman, Jutaro Nakao, Chris Lytle, Jose ‘Pele’ Landi-Jons, Carlos Newton and Gil Castillo with his no-nonsense, well-rounded fighting style.  While his 18 second KO loss in September 2002 at the hands of Phil Baroni will be forever etched in UFC fans’ minds (partly due to the clip being replayed incessantly when Baroni was still with the company) Menne has always been a good, often-underrated fighter.  Menne lost his UFC belt to Murilo Bustamante at UFC 35 and really hasn’t beaten a top level opponent since.  While it might be tempting to say Menne is over-the-hill after such a long, hard career, he’s still just 31 years old and won 5 straight fights on the Extreme Challenge circuit between March 2004 and June 2005.  But, in his last fight, in July of last year, Menne was stopped at the end of the first round against aggressive Team Quest middleweight Ed Herman.

This could be the toughest match of the tournament.  Shields certainly has the edge in BJJ skills but Menne is so tough and has spent most of his career at or above 185 pounds and should have a size and strength advantage over the younger man.  Additionally, Menne has excellent submission defence to counter Shields’ mat game.  Menne’s last (and only) submission loss was way back in 1998 to Jesse Jones, a now forgotten fighter who pushed David Loiseau to the limit in 2002.  Certainly, Menne has lost more than a few fights but even the likes of Carter, Matt Hughes, Kiyoshi Tamura and Falaniko Vitale couldn’t put him away inside the distance.  Some have questioned Menne’s chin as he has a few KO/TKO losses on his record but really, Menne can take a lot of punishment.  And besides, the careful, composed Shields is likelier to try and slow the fight down, controlling Menne and grinding out a win late in the fight.  Younger and working regularly with teammates like David Terrell, Nick Diaz and Gil Castillo, Shields should be fresher and better prepared.  Menne’s Combat Academy team includes the promising Daryl Guthmiller and he’s spent time with the Miletich camp in the past but he can’t compare with the day to day high quality training Shields gets.  Experience counts for a lot but Shields has the talent to overcome that.  And he should win this one, probably by decision.

PREDICTION: Shields by a clear decision after three rounds.

Renato ‘Charuto’ Verrissimo vs. Carlos Condit

BJJ black belt ‘Charuto’ Verissimo (5-2) enters this tournament as one of the strongest favourites.  That’s unsurprising since he’s way ahead of everyone else in terms of skills on the mat, even though, strangely, none of his wins are actually by submission.  Of course, fellow favourite Frank Trigg did give him a sound beating at UFC 50 in late 2004.  But BJ Penn’s instructor has a tight BJJ-based style which saw him thoroughly dominate Carlos Newton at UFC 46 and come close to tapping out Matt Hughes with a triangle choke in a dominant first round at UFC 48.  The Hawaii based Brazilian more than earned his decision win over Newton but deservedly dropped the Hughes fight, mostly based on his almost complete inactivity in the second and third round.  Aside from that eye-opening win over an ill-prepared Newton (illness and problems even getting into the USA to fight), Verissimo’s biggest win came at ROTR 4 when he dominated former two-time UFC title challenger Gil Castillo, forcing Castillo’s corner to stop the fight after the second round.  Adept at ground control, ‘Charuto’ isn’t the most powerful puncher around but is able to stop people by exhausting them with relentless submission attempts and further grinding them down with strikes.  After losing two straight (to Hughes and Trigg), Verissimo fought just once in 2005, stopping Pancrase mid-carder Yuichi Nakanishi on cuts midway through the second.

New Mexico fighter Condit (13-2) booked his place in this tournament with a stunning 87 blitzing of ROTR favourite Ross Ebanez in November last year.  But things could be much tougher for him on January 20th.  Condit is one of the smallest men in the tournament, often fighting at 155 and even if he gets past Verissimo it’s likely he’ll face somebody much bigger yet again in April.  In a talent-packed tournament like this simple matters like sheer size and physical strength could be vital.  That’s not to say Condit has no chance.  Equally dangerous with his fists or submissions, Condit has never gone the distance, picking up 6 TKOs and 7 submissions.  However, he’s never faced anyone as good as ‘Charuto’ and in his toughest test, he was triangled by Carlo Prater in late 2004.  Before that win over Ebanez, Condit was heel hooked into submission by short, powerful Pancrase regular Satoru Kitaoka in his other loss.  Those two results suggest Condit has trouble defending against submissions and that could be a huge problem against Verissimo.

The hometown fighter, physically much bigger and with a career where he’s been in there with much better fighters, this is Verissimo’s fight.  Apart from Kitaoka, Prater, Ebanez and Brad Gumm (who Condit TKO’ed in 71 seconds) Condit’s opponents have a combined career tally of 18-36.  Verissimo has been in there with Newton, Castillo, Hughes and Trigg.  That’s a major difference.  Verissimo also trains with the ultra-talented BJ Penn, not to mention Team Quest stars like Randy Couture and Matt Lindland who sometimes train with the Hawaiians.  Given Verissimo’s greater size and skill, he should win this in style.

PREDICTION: Verissimo by submission late in the first.

Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami

Current Cage Rage World Middleweight champion Silva (14-3) is in an unusual position here.  Most of the time he's outweighed and outmuscled by his opponents but fighting at 175 makes him one of the bigger fighters for this tournament.  Facing weight-cutters like Jorge Rivera and Curtis Stout in his last two title defences, Silva turned in a pair of phenomenal  performances.  At CR11 he thoroughly outclassed Rivera for a second round TKO win and at CR14 he cruised past the Kansas City puncher, leaving him unconscious on the mat just before the end of the first round.  One of the sport's most widely admired strikers, Silva also made his professional boxing debut last year, picking up a second round KO win.  Fast, hard hitting and blessed with a very good chin, Silva has also developed a striking technique that's perfectly adapted to MMA.  He also showed some real improvements in his wrestling and BJJ skills against Stout.  Long considered his main weakness, Silva's improved grappling makes him an even more dangerous fighter than before.  Little wonder he's one of the tournament's most heavily favoured fighters.  Okami could be in serious trouble.

Tokyo based Wajyutsu grappler and GCM regular Okami (13-2) is riding a 5-fight winning streak and coming off a pair of TKO wins over South Korean Muay Thai fighter Myun Joo Lee and Frenchman Damien Riccio but is still a huge underdog against Silva.  He looked good, if far too passive, against Riccio.  There was little action in the first round but Okami’s patient counter-striking style saw him fend off Riccio’s wild punches and land some sweet leg and body kicks.  He easily took Riccio down and passed his guard in the second before raining punches onto the covering-up European.  None looked especially powerful but with two and a half minutes still to go, and no prospect of Riccio doing much of anything, the fight was stopped.  Riccio complained bitterly, but Okami simply outclassed him.  An efficient southpaw with very good grappling skills, Okami will find things much more difficult here.

Okami has beaten some good fighters like Eiji Ishikawa, Kousei Kubota and Ryuta Sakurai, as well as taking Falaniko Vitale to a split decision but Silva should not only win, he should stop him.  True, the Brazilian has come unstuck with gifted Japanese fighters before.  His submission losses to Daijyu Takase and Ryo Chonan instantly spring to mind but the surprise triangle choke (only a surprise to the bizarrely unaware Silva it seems) and the leg scissors takedown/heel hook combo by Chonan are unlikely to be repeated.  For Okami, this will be his toughest challenge so far.  He’s a good fighter, but he’s just not good enough to beat Silva.  Look for the Brazilian to do what he did against Rivera, Stout, Jeremy Horn and Lee Murray, using his speed and striking skill to batter and bewilder his opponent on his way to an indisputable victory.

PREDICTION: Silva by KO early in the third.

Frank Trigg vs. Ronald Jhun

Two-time UFC title challenger Trigg (12-4) is coming off a truly devastating UFC 54 loss to 170 pound superstar-in-the-making Georges St. Pierre.  Utterly dominated from start to finish, Trigg looked like a complete beginner before being finished off with his personal bete noire, a rear naked choke.  Matt Hughes also finished Trigg off with the move in their near-classic fight at UFC 52 in.  And you may be noticing a pattern here but Hughes RNC’ed Trigg at UFC 45 as well.  Unlike the GSP fight though, Trigg had his moments against Hughes.  There was the unforgettable (groin shot assisted) pounding Trigg was giving him in their rematch before Hughes’ amazing comeback but Trigg also outwrestled the Miletich powerhouse in the opening moments of their first fight.  Outside UFC, only Shooto legend Hayato Sakurai has defeated him.  And that was a cracking fight where Trigg was handing out a beating before Sakurai TKO’ed him with some beautiful punches and knees.  Whatever his weaknesses in submission defence, Trigg is an excellent wrestler and an aggressive striker on the ground.  Just look at the way he brutalised Dennis Hallman at UFC 48 and smashed Renato ‘Charuto’ Verrissimo at UFC 50.  Nobody else in this tournament has the wrestling ability and background comparable to Trigg’s and he has the tools to physically dominate any of them.

Hawaiian welterweight/middleweight Jhun (23-15-2) may not be as well known or accomplished as Trigg, Verissimo and Silva, but the ‘Machine Gun’ is capable of pulling off a major shock.  A well-rounded fighter who does everything well but nothing brilliantly, Jhun has excelled against lower level competition but tends to come up short at the highest level.  He has plenty of talent but as losses to the likes of Tiki Ghosn and Jay Hieron show, he lacks that extra ‘star quality’.  Still, nobody should underestimate the deeply religious Jhun, a member of the Jesus is Lord’ team.  Busy from bell to bell, with plenty of experience and wins over Ryan Schultz, Shonie Carter, Joe Stevenson and Dave Strasser he could well be the dark horse in this field.

Both men are coming off losses but Jhun has dropped 4 of his last 5 fights to quality opposition in Chris Lytle, Jason ‘Mayhem’ Miller, Hieron and undefeated Nova Uniao fighter Thales Leites.  Unfortunately for Jhun those most recent losses to Hieron and Leites both came on cuts and Trigg will be looking to damage that face with some violent elbows and punches.  Jhun has talent and shouldn’t be taken lightly but by far the most likely scenario here is Trigg taking him down hard and early and then just battering him to defeat on the ground.  Remember, Trigg needs to send a message to the MMA world that he’s not the washed-up joke some have made him out to be.

PREDICTION: Trigg by TKO late in the first.

Also on the Show:

Kickboxer/MMA fighter Mike Malone (1-4) meets RAW wrestler Kengo Ura (3-3) in what looks to be a classic striker vs. grappler match.  Both have fought, and lost, to good fighters like Kristof Middoux and Nick Ring (Malone) and Mike Swick (Ura).  A strong wrestler, look for Ura to control the action and pick up a late TKO or decision win.

Super-heavyweight Scott Junk (0-1) and a protégé of BJ Penn looks for his first win against newcomer Myles Tyannenes.  Junk hasn’t had it easy – losing to talented burger king Ricco Rodriguez in his MMA debut and being flattened by Yusuke Fujimoto in K-1 but should have his hand raised here.

Ross ‘the Boss’ Ebanez (13-2) will be in action at welterweight.  Originally set to face TUF2 fighter Jason Von Flue, that fight could be unlikely as Von Flue is in action just 4 days earlier at Ultimate Fight Night 3.  No ROTR show is complete without the dangerous Ebanez, a teammate of BJ Penn, and he’ll be looking for a impressive win here after losing to tournament participant Condit in just 87 seconds last November.

Even today, spherical puncher Eric ‘Butterbean’ Esch (1-1-1 in MMA) remains something of a minor celebrity and should pull in some curious customers.  His opponent is still TBA at the time of writing but whoever it is needs to be careful of the big man’s punching power.  He’s sparked out dozens of men in eye-catching fashion during his long fighting career – from boxing bums to pro wrestler Bart Gunn and Jackass star Johnny Knoxville – but is a primitive beginner under MMA rules.  Unless matched up carefully, Butterbean could be in trouble.

Hawaiian MMA’s most famously iron-headed heavyweight, Wesley ‘Cabbage’ Correira (17-8) is on the card as well.  Currently on a 3-fight winning streak after his shocking KO loss to the washed-up Tank Abbott, ‘Cabbage’ is a good, tough but very inconsistent fighter.  When he stands and trades he’s well worth watching, though the heavily tattooed hardman will never trouble the sport’s best big men.  The pressure will be on for him to pick up another win in front of family and friends.

Tournament Predictions Re-cap:

Jake Shields DEC3 Dave Menne

Renato Verissimo SUB1 Carlos Condit

Anderson Silva KO1 Yushin Okami

Frank Trigg TKO1 Ronald Jhun

www.rumbleontherock.com

www.susumug.com