Line-up:

Tim Sylvia vs. Assuerio Silva
Stephan Bonnar vs. James Irvin
Chris Leben vs. Jorge Rivera
Spencer Fisher vs. Aaron Riley
Jonathan Goulet vs. Duane Ludwig
Drew Fickett vs. Josh Burkman
Melvin Guillard vs. Josh Neer
Jason Von Flue vs. Alex Karalexis

Preview:

Tim Sylvia vs. Assuerio Silva

Zuffa’s recent mania for Brazilian heavyweights continues as former Chute Boxe fighter Silva (10-3) makes his UFC debut against company favourite Sylvia (18-2).  Originally scheduled for UFC 54, Silva’s knee injury led to Sylvia instead facing late substitute Tra Telligman.  It’s been a rough couple of years for Sylvia – with a lengthy steroid suspension, a horrifically broken arm and a pair of crushingly quick defeats to Frank Mir and Andrei Arlovski.  The man who rose to prominence with an impressive UFC debut win over the iron-headed ‘Cabbage’ Correira, shocked a flabby, overconfident Ricco Rodriguez to win the UFC heavyweight title and hammered Gan McGee, has at least scored 3 wins since foolishly going to the mat with Mir and having his forearm snapped in less than a minute.  Unfortunately for the gigantic Miletich product two of those wins came against pretty meagre opposition – fighting clown Wes Sims and a pitifully overmatched Mike Block.  Still, in his most recent outing, against Telligman, the 6’8” Sylvia spectacularly KO’ed the Lion’s Den veteran with a high kick 4:59 into the first round.  Even more impressive than his flailing left leg catching Tra’s temple was Sylvia’s composed performance.  Using his reach advantage well he continually countered the smaller Telligman, landed several good straight rights, jabs and a few hooks.  Some decent leg kicks and the odd knee also helped him along the way to his most impressive performance since his steroid assisted bashing of McGee.  Sylvia will certainly need the kind of stand-up performance he had against Telligman when he faces the tough, technically adept Brazilian.

Silva is making his US debut is coming off a pair of wins but injury has kept him out of action since his deserved, but hard-fought decision win over Alessio Sakara at Jungle Fight 3 in October 2004.  Such injuries have been a recurring problem for Silva and he’s fought just 4 times since late 2001.  That kind of inactivity could be a problem for him when he faces Sylvia.  Silva was effective at defending against Sakara’s (a talented boxer) strikes and almost finished him off with a Kimura late in the first round.  Silva sealed the win with a dominant third round.  At Jungle Fight 2 Silva was dominated by the bigger, more aggressive, Fabiano Scherner.  Continually taken down and concentrating on fending off Scherner’s punches from the guard, Silva did little until catching Scherner with a neat guillotine for the submission win.  Before that, and most interestingly, Silva went the distance with the 6’7” Aleksander Emelianenko.  Competitive throughout, Silva lost by split decision to the horribly tattooed Russian at Pride: Bushido 1 in late 2003.  Aggressive with submissions from his back, Silva came close with a rear naked choke in the second round and even managed to land some knees to his giant opponent’s face.  Sylvia needs to realise his height and reach alone may not be enough to keep Silva from landing his knees and punches.  Against Emelianenko and Scherner though, Silva’s takedown defence was weak and Sylvia is a big, strong wrestler.  If he uses his wrestling he should be able to take the Brazilian down with ease and punish him with strikes.  Of course, he needs to be careful of the leglock and Kimura-happy Silva’s submissions but as long as he concentrates on a gameplan of using strikes to set up takedowns and then staying busy on the ground, Sylvia should win this.  But if his triumph against the over-the-hill Telligman has gone to his head, or if he hasn’t learned the lessons the Mir and Arlovski fights should have taught him, then Sylvia could very easily lose this fight.

PREDICTION: Sylvia by decision after three rounds.

Stephan Bonnar vs. James Irvin

Finally, after initially being lined up for the second Ultimate Fight Night back in October last year, we get to see what could be a very explosive fight.  Super-popular TUF star Bonnar is always well worth watching and, after his amazing KO of Terry Martin at UFC 54 Irvin has some serious momentum.  Bonnar (7-2) struggled to overcome the surprisingly tough Sam Hoger at the first UFN special, scoring a unanimous decision win but looking far more vulnerable than most expected.  Particularly worrying was the way he seemed to run out of steam late in the second round.  Bonnar struggled through to the final bell but he looked pretty shaky at times, just as he did during the first season of TUF in wins over Mike Swick (where he looked in terrible trouble from a guillotine before winning with a triangle/armbar combination) and Bobby Southworth (taking a very close decision win).  Of course, he also looked pretty ragged in his classic brawl with Forrest Griffin at the TUF finale in April.  That one, his only loss since he was cut open in about 6,383 places by Ryoto Machida at Antonio Inoki’s first Jungle Fight event, could have gone either way and it’s a fight that made Bonnar’s name.  However, it also raised certain expectations.  Mainly, that any Bonnar fight will be a war, and he seems hellbent on giving the fans what they want.  Bonnar has real talent but going to war with Irvin may not be the smartest move he’s ever made.

James ‘Sandman’ Irvin (9-1) has never heard a judge’s decision in his professional career, and with these two in there the judges are unlikely to be called upon for their opinion this time around.  Realistically, Irvin hasn’t actually looked good in his two UFC fights.  In his UFC 51 debut he was torn apart by Mike Kyle and against Martin he was being outwrestled and controlled throughout the first round.  But, as the second round began he unleashed an incredible flying knee that looked more like a pro wrestling ‘Shining Wizard’ than something you’d see in a real fight, and laid Martin flat out on his back.  Highlight reel worthy stuff from Irvin, and that’s the kind of fighter he is – dangerous, exciting, but like Bonnar, and probably even more so, vulnerable.  Martin and Doug Marshall, who Irvin also KO’ed with a less spectacular knee in May, are both good fighters but his other 6 victims (he beat Bo Cantrall twice) are all average at best.  Bonnar has certainly fought higher quality opposition, and seems to have more well-rounded skills.  He’s certainly a better grappler.  He also looks to have a better chin.  Irvin though has better striking technique and real knockout power.  This will be just his second fight at 205 as well so he should have an edge in size and sheer physical strength.  If the fight goes into the later stages stamina could be a problem for both of them but Bonnar has at least done 15 hard minutes on more than one occasion.  If it comes down to heart and sheer mental toughness, then Bonnar will win.  And if they come out swinging furiously both men could be digging deep fairly early on and those qualities will be vital.  Look for Irvin to hurt Bonnar but expect the Illinois man to do what he usually does by shrugging it off and come steaming back in.  Bonnar’s heart, relentlessness and greater array of weapons should see him pull off a rousing stoppage win.

PREDICTION: Bonnar by TKO midway through the second round.

Chris Leben vs. Jorge Rivera

TUF1 troublemaker Leben (13-1) is back and he faces Rivera (12-4) in what could end up as a gruelling stand-up war of attrition.  Rivera has looked pretty bad in his last two fights.  His match with a reluctant Dennis Hallman at UFC 55 was absolutely dire and he seemed to have no idea how to defend against takedowns in the first round of his Cage Rage 13 fight with Marcelo Azevedo.  True, Rivera won both fights by decision but didn’t look impressive in the process.  Hallman’s total non-performance shoulders much of the blame for the UFC fiasco but if Azevedo hadn’t gassed out its unlikely Rivera would be on this card as the Spain-based Brazilian was completely schooling the more experienced Rivera.  Perhaps his total dismantling at the hands (and knees and feet) of Anderson Silva at Cage Rage 11 has wrecked his confidence but the Rivera in those fights was far more passive than the ironman who took Rich Franklin to the limit and decisioned David Loiseau.  Rivera is a talented fighter who has a more refined and varied striking technique than the impetuous Leben.  But if he’s willing to let Leben come after him and dictate the pace of the fight then he’ll be picking the wrong strategy.

Fast and aggressive, Leben has looked good in his last two fights.  He pressed Patrick Cote all the way and earned a decision win at UFN1.  At UFN2 he showed off some good ground technique in armbarring Edwin Dewees in the first round.  Those fights went a long way to erasing the memory of his loss to arch enemy Josh Koscheck during TUF1 and Leben is one of the few TUF contestants so far who looked headed to UFC anyway.  His only ‘official’ loss came by decision against Joe Doerksen in a fantastic scrap where Leben, outclassed on the ground, fought his heart out and hurt the Canadian on numerous occasions.  His spectacular KO win over Mike Swick and injury-assisted stoppage of Benji Radach are other pre-TUF highlights for Leben.  A stand-up battle between those could get interesting, with their wildly different styles and Rivera’s longer reach.  Both have excellent chins too.  Rivera’s recent poor form and Leben’s underrated submission skills and years of training with some of the sport’s finest at Team Quest (and his recent work with AMC Pankration) may help tip the balance in this fight.  Look for Leben to pick up another good win, perhaps by decision.

PREDICTION: Leben by a clear decision after three rounds.

Spencer Fisher vs. Aaron Riley

Miletich fighter Fisher (15-1) faces the toughest test of his career against notoriously tough American Top Team veteran Riley (23-7-1) at welterweight.  The 29-year old Fisher is a talented, brash, well-rounded fighter with real knockout power.  Undefeated during 2005, highlights of last year’s action included his beautiful 33 second KO of Kyle Watson and his UFC debut – where he looked impressive scoring a triangle submission win over Thiago Alves.  Aside from that win over Alves there are few recognisable names on Fisher’s record.  He lost to Carlo Prater by decision and holds a decision win over Josh Neer, but his resume is padded with winless fighters and journeymen.  Alves was a step up in class for Fisher, but Riley is a huge leap forwards.

This is something of a revenge match for the American Top Team, as the 25-year old Riley trains with Alves and that should give him even more of an incentive to put on a show in his first UFC fight in almost 4 years.  Riley’s only previous UFC booking was a cracking fight where he took some serious punishment but impressed everyone by lasting the distance, against the sport’s then-rising star, Robbie Lawler at UFC 37.  That’s the same Lawler who’s a teammate of Fisher by the way.  Iron-chinned and technically sound in all areas Riley is a fighter’s fighter.  His fights with Yves Edwards in Hook n’ Shoot in 1999 and 2001 are the stuff of legend (just wait and see how long it takes Joe Rogan to bring them up).  Only two men have ever KO’ed or TKO’ed Riley – Chris Lytle and Falaniko Vitale – in more than 30 professional fights.  Currently on a 4-fight winning streak (his last defeat was by armbar to TUF2’s Sam Morgan) Riley also served up one of 2005’s best KO’s – a stunning high kick to end a very painful MMA debut for Japanese Judoka Michihiro Omigawa at Pride: Bushido 7.  It was great to see Riley back in the big time, and just a shame DSE seemed to have no interest in booking him again.  Well, their loss is Zuffa’s gain and while Riley won’t be a title challenger in the ridiculously stacked 170 pound division, he is an incredibly stiff test for fighters like Fisher.  Watch closely as if these two go to war this could well be an early contender for 2006’s fight of the year.  Fisher may just have the edge in an incredibly close fight but he’s very unlikely to stop Riley.

PREDICTION: Fisher by a close decision after three rounds.

Jonathan Goulet vs. Duane Ludwig

‘Bang’ Ludwig (9-4) makes a welcome return to the UFC for just his third MMA fight since shocking Genki Sudo in a controversial fight at UFC 42 back in April 2003.  His opponent is Quebecker Goulet (15-5) in what could be a fascinating fight.  Ludwig is a masterful striker but he’s 0-2 in MMA since his referee/bad rule assisted decision win over the ‘Neo Samurai’.  It’s not that Ludwig didn’t do well in that fight – he was very competitive and gave Sudo one of the toughest fights of his career.  But without a very fortunate pause to check on his cuts, Ludwig looked on the verge of being stopped.  The break gave him much needed time to recover and he finished the fight mocking Sudo with a Karate Kid impression.  13 months later he was routinely taken down and submitted by BJ Penn, then he was stunningly KO’ed by future TUF2 contestant Sam Morgan in a mere 52 seconds in April 2005.  Ludwig has built his MMA career on punishing fighters with his fists and feet and his more notable victims include KOTC lunatics Thomas Denny and Charles ‘Krazy Horse’ Bennett.  And of course he unforgettably shocked the MMA world in early 2003 with a 73 second KO of Jens Pulver.

Sixteen of Goulet’s professional fights have been for the UCC/TKO promotions in Montreal, Canada.  He’s 2-2 outside his homeland and all 5 of his professional losses have come by KO or TKO.  True, they have generally come against quality fighters like Tony Fryklund (who Goulet beat in a rematch), the talented but inconsistent Yan Pellerin and Brendan Seguin.  But any suggestion of a weak chin is bad news against Ludwig.  Looking at recent form, Goulet should take this.  Undefeated in his last 10 fights in a run stretching back to November 2003 he’s beaten top Canadian kickboxer Jeff Joslin by a (very debatable) decision, finished 7 of those 10 fights in the first round and has consistently been one of TKO’s best fighters.  In his UFC debut he stopped New Yorker Jay Hieron on cuts in a total bloodbath on the untelevised undercard of UFN2 in October last year and followed that up by choking out faded veteran Shonie Carter a month later.  More well-rounded than Ludwig, more focused on MMA and with that winning run behind him, Goulet will probably be too much for ‘Bang’ in this one.

PREDICTION: Goulet by submission midway through the second round.

Drew Fickett vs. Josh Burkman

Tough, experienced Arizona native Fickett (26-3) faces TUF2 contestant Burkman (4-2) in another of the night’s intriguing welterweight fights.  Last time out the resilient Fickett was comprehensively outwrestled, controlled and physically dominated by Josh Koscheck at UFN2.  That was until he landed a perfect knee to the head that knocked the AKA wrestler senseless and allowed Fickett to pounce with a rear naked choke victory with just 22 seconds left in the fight.  Fickett went 4-1 in 2005, beating Koscheck, destroying Josh Neer at UFN1 and dominating Brandon Melendez in June.  Predictably battered by Nick Diaz at UFC 51, Fickett bounced back well and his combination of wrestling skills, experience and heart will be very difficult for Burkman to over come.

Team Quest fighter Burkman may be better known than Fickett due to his TUF2 exposure, but he’s giving up a massive amount of experience in an MMA career that started in early 2004 with a submission loss to current teammate Matt Horwich.  His only other loss came in a bad-tempered match where he was utterly outclassed by Jeremy Horn in just 74 seconds.  Burkman looked good against his fellow TUF2 contestants – using his wrestling to counter Melvin Guillard’s busy striking early in the series and needing just 21 seconds to slam the favoured Sam Morgan unconscious at the TUF2 Finale.  An elbow injury picked up against Guillard forced Burkman out of TUF2 but this fight offers him the chance to make a big impact.  And Burkman may be able to do just that.  While not as accomplished a wrestler as Koscheck, Burkman should be able to take Fickett down.  Once on the mat he has a more varied attack than the still one-dimensional Koscheck and may be able to grind out the biggest, toughest win of his career.  That said, Fickett will be an incredibly tough opponent and this one could leave the judges with a very difficult choice to make.

PREDICTION: Burkman by a very close decision after three rounds.

Melvin Guillard vs. Josh Neer

Loudmouthed TUF2 contestant Guillard (20-4-2) is exactly what Zuffa need.  Brash, charismatic, handsome, skilled and an exciting fighter, the New Orleans native’s incredible Hurricane Katrina story also makes him a genuine American hero with a fascinating backstory.  He’s been in with some good fighters like Roger Huerta, LaVerne Clark, Carlo Prater (surely overdue a call from Zuffa) and Josh Burkman (a cracking fight during TUF2), picking up 12 KO or TKO wins along the way.  Originally set to face fellow TUF2 contestant Anthony Torres, Guillard was widely expected to pick up an easy win.  An injury to the Hawaiian led to Miletich fighter Neer (15-3-1) stepping in with just a couple of weeks notice, presenting Guillard with a much tougher challenge.  A busy fighter, amassing close to 20 career fights in less than 3 years, Neer is, like Guillard young but experienced.  Both have underrated wrestling skills (Guillard had some great escapes against Burkman) but Guillard has the edge in striking.  And that’s how he can win this fight.  True, Neer has never been KO’ed as his defeats have been by decision to Spencer Fisher and rear naked choke – Drew Fickett and Nick Thompson.  Fast and technically skilled, Guillard has the tools to be the first to beat Neer with his fists.

PREDICTION: Guillard by KO late in the first round.

Jason Von Flue vs. Alex Karalexis

The first clash between TUF1 and TUF2 contestants sees the tall, lanky Von Flue (9-4-1) face short, squat TUF1 fighter Karalexis (2-1).  The undersized Karalexis had an enjoyable scrap with Kenny Florian at the first UFN (losing due to cuts) and battered Josh Rafferty at the TUF1 Finale but he simply isn’t good enough to beat the much more experienced Von Flue.  A late entrant into the TUF2 house, Von Flue made enemies quickly and one of them, Jorge Gurgel was intent on getting rid of him.  Unfortunately for the diminutive, bad-tempered, arrogant, childish Gurgel, Von Flue outlasted him in an exciting, if sloppy stand-up war.  Von Flue used some effective, if ugly striking that reminded many of a weaker, messier version of his real-life trainer Chuck Liddell’s style to teach Gurgel a lesson in humility.  The 6’1” Von Flue was less successful in the semi-finals.  He did very well on his feet but as soon as Joe Stevenson took him down, Von Flue was in real trouble.  A few vicious elbows and a messy armbar saw Von Flue tap out late in the first round.  His submission defence may have been lacking against Stevenson but Von Flue has picked up 8 submission wins in a career stretching back to 1999.  Look for Von Flue to dominate on his feet, for Karalexis to bring it to the mat, and Von Flue make him pay by tapping him out.

PREDICTION: Von Flue by submission late in the first round.

Predictions Re-cap:

Tim Sylvia DEC3 Assuerio Silva

Stephan Bonnar TKO2 James Irvin

Chris Leben DEC3 Jorge Rivera

Johnathan Goulet SUB2 Duane Ludwig

Spencer Fisher DEC3 Aaron Riley

Josh Burkman DEC3 Drew Fickett

Melvin Guillard KO1 Josh Neer

Jason Von Flue SUB1 Alex Karalexis