The Ratings War

Pride of course have the potentially huge Naoya Ogawa vs. Hidehiko Yoshida fight as well as the mouth-watering Takanori Gomi vs. Hayato Sakurai fight, not to mention battered legend Kazushi Sakuraba against the demented Ikuhisa Minowa.  However, Gomi really hasn’t taken off as a big star the way DSE hoped he would and aside from Ogawa-Yoshida, Pride have little to trouble K-1’s expected ratings dominance, even with Mirko Cro Cop facing Mark Hunt and the sheer craziness of the Fedor Emelianenko-Zuluzhino fight.  K-1 should pull in some big numbers with Royce Gracie vs. Hideo Tokoro and the unspeakably silly Akebono vs. Bobby Olugon match as well as Bob Sapp facing Musashi and Peter Aerts murdering Sylvester Terkay under K-1 rules.   Generally speaking, K-1 are much more in tune with what will pull in the casual fans and the simply curious and Pride will likely be playing catch-up in the TV ratings race, despite a show overflowing with talent.  It’s not all teeth-grinding stuff for the hardcore fan though, as K-1’s Premium Dynamite 2005 does showcase at least one MMA fight that should please absolutely everyone.

The Tournament Final

The final of the K-1 Hero’s Middleweight (154 pound) title tournament will pit two of Japan’s most marketable, and respected lighter weight competitors against each other as Genki Sudo (13-3-1)and Norifumi ‘KID’ Yamamoto (12-1) square off over 3 x 5 minute rounds that will have the TV executives grinning from ear to ear and the casual fans pinned to their seats.  Effortlessly cool, bizarrely entertaining and highly talented, Sudo may be a promoter’s dream but KID is a promoter’s wildest fantasy.  Ever since last New Year’s Eve and his K-1 MAX war with Masato, the charismatic, handsome, tattooed, super aggressive Yamamoto has genuinely broken into the mainstream as one of Japan’s biggest fighting stars.  The star power of these two will most likely pull in a bigger rating than anything else either Pride (yes, even ‘the War that is Prohibited’ between Hidehiko Yoshida and Naoya Ogawa) or K-1 have come up with, but what happens once the bell rings?  First, a look at how they have performed in the tournament so far.

Yamamoto vs. Schaffa

Both men received a free pass into the tournament’s second round, although while other fighters were competing in the first round and an injured Sudo was sitting it out, KID was battling Australian Ian Schaffa in a non-tournament main event.  An exciting, ill-tempered first round saw Schaffa yellow-carded for twice kneeing Yamamoto in the groin and also go for an armbar after the bell.  Aside from his disregard for the rules Schaffa was more than competitive with the clearly smaller Yamamoto.  A sharp, technically gifted striker, Schaffa landed some good leg kicks and stiff jabs.  It was only when the fight eventually went to the mat late in the session that KID unloaded some brutal punches on his opponents face.  The second round was a little quieter with the two men exchanging low kicks and punches pretty evenly for most of the round.  With less than 90 seconds to go Schaffa tagged Yamamoto with some punches and KID responded with an eye-catching slam off a single leg takedown.  Schaffa didn’t allow any openings though and KID ended the round in control but doing no real damage.  The fight was still even going into the final round where the aggressive Yamamoto landed some good leg kicks and threw some wild punches.  A heavy right hand bounced off Schaffa’s skull and although KID missed with a pair of follow-up punches, Schaffa went down and the referee intervened just after KID landed a stomp to Schaffa’s body 1:23 into the third.

Sudo vs. Miyata

Just over a month later and the tournament’s quarters and semi-finals were held at Tokyo’s Ariake Collosseum.  Sudo was up first, taking on 2004 Olympic wrestler Kazayuki Miyata.  Miyata took him down within 20 seconds but Sudo’s smart defensive work stopped the former Olympian from doing any damage.  Miyata did land a decent right hand and escaped a couple of leglock attempts before getting another couple of takedowns.  Sudo was, of course perfectly comfortable with all this and a tight guard and some great defensive work with his hands kept him out of trouble.  An attempted stomp by Miyata was followed by a quick leglock attempt by Sudo and they scambled back to their feet with less than 50 seconds to go.  Hands held low, Sudo blocked a couple of takedowns and a high kick attempt to end an absorbing round won by Miyata.  A minute into the second round Sudo took Miyata down and landed a couple of punches.  From there ‘the Neo Samurai’ started to really take control of the fight.  Working patiently, he was all over Miyata on the mat, from both top and bottom positions.  Back on their feet with 2:20 remaining the aggressive Miyata caught Sudo with a punch but couldn’t follow up, or secure a takedown.  A few seconds later he dove in for a single leg and was again stuffed.  Sudo punished him with a knee to the face and over the next minute or so really punished Miyata with some heavy punches.  Desperately looking for a way to survive, Miyata offered little real defence and Sudo worked his way into a perfect armbar for the submission with 15 seconds to go.  Sudo had struggled more than most expected with the aggressive wrestler but his experience, skill and patience earned him the win.

Yamamoto vs. Gracie

KID’s first tournament match saw him take on Brazilian veteran Royler Gracie.  Yamamoto unsurprisingly KO’ed Gracie 38 seconds into the second round with a perfect overhand right, countering a jumping knee.  Gracie went down like he’d been shot and the fight was in dramatic fashion.  The first round opened quietly with Gracie obviously looking for a way to get KID on the ground.  Half-stumbling from a punch to the shoulder, Gracie managed to grab hold of KID, pull guard and bring him down.  Unable to do anything with KID from the guard, Gracie was forced to stand and even cuffing punches from the shorter Yamamoto seemed to have him looking disorganised.  KID waited patiently for openings while Gracie threw a few awkward front kicks to the body.  KID landed the odd glancing shot but Gracie would smartly skitter away out of trouble until the round ended.  Again, Gracie looked nervous on his feet as the second round started.  And with good reason as KID soon absolutely flattened him for an eye-popping knockout.

Sudo vs. Takaya

For his semi-final, Sudo started cautiously throwing distracting kicks and neatly avoiding Shooto rising star Hiroyuki Takaya’s attempted punches before diving in for a double leg takedown.  Takaya wriggled back to his feet though and Sudo resumed his trademark circling, bouncing around and feinting shots.  A sudden spinning backfist was blocked by Takaya and Sudo continued with his cautious stand-up.  With less than a minute to go the fight briefly exploded into life as Sudo landed a nice jab, beautifully ducked a Takaya punch, missed a spinning backfist, secured a takedown and ended up on his back as Takaya reversed him.  As in the Miyata fight, Sudo neutralised his opponent beautifully and waited out the round.  The second session started with a decent Sudo legkick and a nice takedown.  Takaya quickly regained his feet though and went on the offensive, throwing punches at Sudo’s head.  Blocking a Sudo takedown and avoiding another spinning backfist, Takaya was countering Sudo very effectively.  When a Sudo takedown failed he dragged Takaya down into the guard and smartly, the younger man backed out and landed a powerful punch to the face.  Instantly, Sudo grabbed for a leglock and Takaya was frantically diving to the ropes, using them to help power out of the submission attempt.  Back on their feet, Sudo was evasive again until going for some jabs and knees to the body.  A nice right uppercut from Sudo helped disorganise Takaya enough that he stumbled to the mat and Sudo pounced.  Taking his back, Sudo went first for a choke, then an armbar, then, finally, the triangle choke for the tapout win at 3:47 of the round.

Yamamoto vs. Uno

Lastly, and once again in the main event spot, Yamamoto faced Shooto and UFC veteran Caol Uno.  The bigger, taller Uno avoided a wild Yamamoto hook early on and over the next minute or so neither man really landed much.  Holding centre ring Uno looked loose while KID circled and tried the odd power shot.  Yamamoto did land a nice left hook midway through the round and briefly had a Muay Thai clinch but Uno shrugged it off before KID could really go to work with knees or punches.  Another brief Muay Thai clinch saw KID land a knee to the groin but Uno was quickly back in action.  Yamamoto blocked Uno’s punches well and late on countered a leg kick with a nice straight punch to the body.  A close round ended with neither man in clear control.  KID landed a nice knee to the body early but a wild scramble saw both men fall through the ropes.  Once restarted, KID landed some short, fast hooks while Uno scored with a few leg kicks.  KID used his fast hands to catch Uno with a couple of shots and that and a good knee to the body started to swing the advantage his way.  Over the next 30 seconds or so he landed some fast, hard jabs and one powerful right hook that opened up a nasty cut by Uno’s left eye.  A break to deal with Uno’s eye proved useless as the blood started flowing again immediately so they had another go at it.  The fight eventually restarted with 1:27 left on the clock and KID whacked him with a couple of hard right hands and a decent jab.  Clinched by the ropes, Uno’s cut was pouring now and the referee waved it off with 56 seconds remaining.

New Year’s Eve

Both fighters have plenty to lose here.  Most obviously, their unbeaten runs.  Yamamoto has won 9 straight MMA fights, and the only loss of his career was by a fast, fluky TKO caused by a cut from Stephen Palling’s knee in May 2002.  Sudo’s last defeat was in April 2003 when a blatantly unfair restart to check Duane Ludwig’s cuts helped ‘Bang’ to a controversial decision win at UFC 42.  Since then, Sudo has won 6 straight.  Also, given the expected audience this will be easily one of the most high-profile, most watched fights in recent years.  Somebody’s winning streak is coming to an end.  But whose?  There are just so many fascinating angles to this fight.

KID has serious knockout power.  Look at the way he crushed Gracie, or Mongolian hardman Jadamba Naruntangalag, or Caleb Mitchell.  All of them sparked out by a single shot.  But Sudo has never been knocked out.  Neither man has ever submitted during a fight and both are master grapplers in their own way.  Yamamoto was a near-Olympic level freestyle wrestler while Sudo has plenty of ADCC and submission wrestling experience.  Rumours abound that KID schooled him during a grappling match/sparring session but how true they really are is anyone’s guess.  KID is a better kickboxer but Sudo has that bizarre and unorthodox striking style.  Reliant on giving his opponent strange angles and using quick spinning backfists he may be able to throw the usually aggressive Yamamoto off his game and take advantage.  But Yamamoto is perfectly capable of being patient – as he showed against Uno and Gracie.  He also has some incredible handspeed which could test Sudo’s reflex-based defence to its limits.  Sudo has decent power of his own but has only scored one KO victory – over Royler Gracie.  Both have excellent chins.  On the mat, Sudo has an excellent defence against strikes but who knows if he can really withstand Yamamoto’s fury?  KID has very good submission defence but Sudo is merciless when he has someone in a bad position.  Just look how patiently and effectively he worked at finishing Miyata and Takaya off.  Sudo will likely have trouble taking KID down (Takaya was pretty effective at blocking his takedowns and Miyata was good at times too) but he may simply prefer to keep the fight standing and try and sucker KID into making a mistake.  But if KID really wants to take Sudo down he should be able to do it.  The true deciding factor may have little to do with their respective skills though.  Sheer size could be vitally important.  Yamamoto is simply tiny.  If, as is rumoured, he tries out for the 2008 Olympics he’d possibly be able to make the 132  pound weightclass.  Sudo though, cuts weight to make 154.  He will also have significant edges in height and reach.  Giving away so much weight against a talented, unpredictable fighter like Sudo could make all the difference.

I expect KID to dominate early, pressing the action on their feet, landing some punches while Sudo defends and throws out the odd leg kick.  Yamamoto should also be in control of the wrestling too, but he’ll have trouble getting through that defence and eventually Sudo will find an opening.  And when he does he should be able to exploit it.  Particularly as late in the fight KID will be feeling the effects of fighting a bigger man.  Look for Sudo to catch Yamamoto with a late submission (as he did against Miyata and Takaya) for a dramatic, come from behind win.