But, looking on the bright side, the Arlovski-Buentello fight should provide real fireworks while it lasts, Forrest Griffin and Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral are both back and the incredible shrinking man Joe Riggs drops another weight class to make his welterweight debut.  The show also features the returns for UFC veterans Elvis Sinosic, Chris Lytle, Jorge Rivera and Dennis Hallman, as well as debuts for two of Zuffa’s more curious acquisitions in elite grappler ‘Pe De Pano’ Marcio Cruz and MMA’s greatest self-publicist, Sean Gannon.  An odd looking show certainly, and one that may spring a few surprises for those fans who actually buy it rather than waiting to blow their $34.95 on the already much more attractive UFC 56 in November.

Line-up:

UFC Heavyweight title: Andrei Arlovski (Champion) vs. Paul Buentello
Forrest Griffin vs. Elvis Sinosic
Joe Riggs vs. Chris Lytle
Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral vs. Chael Sonnen
Alessio Sakara vs. Ron Faircloth
‘Pe De Pano’ Marcio Cruz vs. Keigo Kunihara
Jorge Rivera vs. Dennis Hallman
Sean Gannon vs. Branden Lee Hinkle

Mohegan Sun, Uncasville , CT
October 7th 2005

UFC Heavyweight title: Andrei Arlovski (Champion) vs. Paul Buentello

Ah well, looks as though Zuffa’s hopes of turning multi-lingual AKA puncher Buentello (18-7) into a real draw for the Hispanic audience have been pretty swiftly abandoned.  A hard, accurate puncher, Buentello of course has that old cliché ‘the puncher’s chance’ on his side.  However, nobody can realistically think he has more than that as he challenges Arlovski (8-3) for the full, official UFC Heavyweight title after Zuffa’s belated decision to strip careless motorcyclist and Spearmint Rhino doorman Frank Mir of the strap and promote Arlovski’s ‘Interim’ title to full championship status.  Buentello’s UFC debut, a truly impressive balsting out of Justin Eilers at UFC 51 was probably enough to earn him a title shot in Zuffa’s depleted big man ranks.  But, in a truly classic booking decision, UFC gave Eilers a shot instead while Buentello was booked against Kevin Jordan.  Buentello won the fight by KO but it probably did him more harm than good in the eyes of many.  His striking looked awful and he seemed exhausted after about 3 minutes with the raw, powerful but fairly average Jordan.  Worse, Jordan actually had Buentello in trouble at one point.  Certainly, Buentello is a talented, experienced fighter who trains with one of the sport’s best teams but like so many fights on this show, the winner looks pretty obvious.  Yes, Buentello beat Eilers, and KO’ed Mike Kyle (after Kyle had him in some real trouble) and has also beaten Bobby Hoffman, Jason Godsey and Roger Neff but he’s lost to Hoffman, Ricco Rodriguez, Gan McGee and Evan Tanner, as well as unremarkable fighters like Sam Sotello and Nate Schroeder.

Belarussian star Arlovski, still only 26 years old, has looked nothing short of terrifying on the 5-fight winning streak that dates back to late 2002 and his UFC 40 annihilation of Ian Freeman.  He’s used an excellent sprawl and some beautiful uppercuts to KO Vladimir Matyushenko, pounded away on ‘Cabbage’ Correira for an impressive stoppage win, destroyed Tim Sylvia in just 47 seconds to win the Interim belt and defended it with a predictable KO of Eilers.  What wasn’t predictable though, was Eilers’ post-fight injury report.  You could be forgiven for thinking he’d fallen down a mountainside or been involved in a car crash rather than a fight that lasted a little over 4 minutes.  Like Buentello, Arlovski has lost to Rodriguez, but the Andrei Arlovski of mid-2001 and the fighter we see today are very different.  His chin may still be suspect though.  He’s been sparked out by Pedro Rizzo, no shame there by the way, and the barking mad Viacheslav Datsik.  But his striking is clean, very hard and very accurate.  His wrestling is strong, particularly his takedown defence.  His submissions are extremely dangerous and he fights with the aggression of a man kidnapped and imprisoned for 20 years who’s been released and given the name of the man who put him away.  And don’t forget, at 6’4” and 240, he’s the physical prototype of a modern MMA heavyweight.  Buentello certainly has a better chance of victory than the hapless, overmatched Eilers did but he still won’t win.  Look for Arlovski to make another successful, dominant defence of the title that could well be his for a long, long time.

PREDICTION: Arlovski by KO in the first.

Forrest Griffin vs. Elvis Sinosic

If nothing else, this fight between two of the sport’s most likeable fighters, will feature some real entertainment.  TUF1 star Griffin (11-2) and Australia’s Sinosic (6-7-2) are both excellent grapplers.  Griffin has some impressive credentials in no-Gi submission tournaments while Machado stylist Sinosic has done something very few fighters have, submit Jeremy Horn.  Griffin too has fought Horn, losing by KO in September 2003 after a real war.  However, since that fight with Horn, he’s gone 2-4-1, losing to Tito Ortiz, Evan Tanner, Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral and Sane Kikuta.  He’s managed a draw and a win in his last two fights though, going to a stalemate with Daijiro Matsui and KOing BJJ master Roberto Traven.  Both Sinosic and Griffin have somewhat odd striking skills.  Sinosic’s, much improved of late, just looks awful, while Griffin’s is effective, if sloppy and wild.  After his classic with Stephan Bonnar in April, most fans probably expect every Griffin fight to descend into all-out chaos but look for this one to be fought almost entirely on the mat.  That’s where things get interesting as despite an alarming tendency to bleed, Sinosic is an incredible survivor.  At UFC 38 he took a hellish beating from ‘Babalu’ but held on until the bitter, painful end and at Pancrase’s 10th anniversary show in 2003 he survived a gruelling war of submission and grappling technique with Kikuta.  If Griffin can finish him inside the distance, it will be an impressive achievement.  And it’s possible he will.  Sinosic has deceptively good takedowns and always seems to wind up on his back where he’s most comfortable.  From there, Griffin needs to stay busy, landing shots, looking for submission openings (which Sinosic will undoubtedly fend off) and avoid any sneaky submissions attempts by the Australian.  Griffin certainly has the talent to do it.  This certainly won’t be as easy as his UFC 53 win over Bill Mahood and it will be a decent test of his ability but it’s one Griffin should pass with impressive marks.  Look for him to win either by a cut-assisted TKO or decision.

PREDICTION: Griffin by decision.

Joe Riggs vs. Chris Lytle

Arizona’s big-punching dieter Joe Riggs (22-6) has lost something like 80 to 90 pounds in the last couple of years and he makes his welterweight debut here against part-time fireman, part-time MMA fighter and part-time boxer Chris Lytle (18-11-5).  Riggs, whose petulant whining after Ivan Salaverry choked him out at UFC 52 made him look like a biog, muscly, tattooed baby, is a very talented, crowd pleasing fighter.  He just needs more maturity and perhaps somebody to sit him down and tell him there’s more to MMA then throwing somebody to the mat and then just trying to pulverise them with punches.  He’s simply too predictable while Lytle is much more well-rounded.  Riggs has monstrous power and if he’s cut weight properly he could be an absolute beast at 170.  True, most of his wins have come against mediocre opposition but he did give Joe Doerksen a beating at UFC 49 and was destroying Alex Steibling in January 2004 until being caught with a triangle choke in one of the greatest come-from-behind wins in MMA history.  With Riggs being overly aggressive and prone to mistakes like that Lytle has his best chance of winning this on the ground.  Interestingly, the Indiana veteran has never been KO’ed, TKO’ed or submitted.  All 11 losses have come by decision, meaning he’s gone the distance with Karo Parisyan, Robbie Lawler, Nick Diaz, Shonie Carter and Dave Menne amongst others.  He’s also drawn with Ikuhisa Minowa and has won 6 of his last 7 fights.  While Riggs’ stamina is suspect, Lytle’s is unquestioned and he simply has more ways to win than Riggs does.  The main question is whether he can take the ‘Diesel’s’ power.  If he can, then he should be able to outlast the bigger, younger man and take a well-earned win, either with a late submission or by decision.

PREDICTION: Lytle by submission midway through the third.

Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral vs. Chael Sonnen

It’s pretty rare to see a Team Quest fighter in there with a better wrestler but Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral (25-5) may just have that edge over Chael Sonnen (13-6-1).  Certainly Sonnen, who made a serious run at local government a couple of years ago, is an excellent wrestler – an NCAA All-American and 2000 US Olympic Team alternate.  But ‘Babalu’ has twice been to the Pan-American Games, losing in Freestyle in 2001 and winning a bronze medal in Greco-Roman (despite having done very little training and competing in the 260 pound weight class) in the most recent competition.  He’s also just a better MMA fighter.  And he’s very, very pissed off with Sonnen.  The heat stems from a fight they had a couple of years ago in California.  Due to MMA being illegal there the promotion told the state athletic commission it was a pro wrestling show and gave them results in advance.  ‘Babalu’ claims he won, and Sonnen claims he won the fight.  A messy, ridiculous situation will be resolved on Friday.  And realistically, Sonnen won’t be winning this time.  He’s a good fighter with wins over Homer Moore and Alex Steibling as well as drawing with Akihiro Gono.  But his six losses, 2 to Jeremy Horn and the rest to Terry Martin, Keiichiro Yamamiya, Forrest Griffin and Trevor Prangley suggest he’s losing this one.  The 30 year old Sobral’s BJJ has improved immeasurably since joining Gracie Barra (just check out his awkward armbar technique when he fought in RINGS and the perfect armbar he finished Travis Wiuff with at UFC 52) and with his heavy hands, brute strength and excellent wrestling, he’s certainly one of the sports best 205 pounders.  Riding an 8-fight winning streak that includes dominant wins over Wiuff, Pierre Guillet, Cyrille Diabate, Jose ‘Pele’ Landi-Johns and Trevor Prangley, as well as a decision over Jeremy Horn and a guillotine choke victory in a war with Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua, Sobral is looking better than ever.  Look for him to dominate Sonnen and take another step towards a thoroughly deserved UFC title shot.

PREDICTION: ‘Babalu’ by submission late in the first round.

Alessio Sakara vs. Ron Faircloth

After Ian Freeman’s retirement bumped ‘the King of Rock n’ Rumble’ into a semi-main event spot with Griffin, Alessio Sakara (7-3) was left without an opponent.  Thankfully, for the first Italian to fight in the UFC, Zuffa found a replacement and, even better, it looks to be an easier task than his planned match with Sinosic.  Owner of a physique that makes him look like a generic bad guy extra in a cheap action movie and a mediocre record compiled against mostly mediocre opposition, Wisconsin’s Ron Faircloth (18-10) is not the typical UFC pay-per-view fighter.  Then again neither are ‘Pe De Pano’ or Sean Gannon.  Faircloth is a tough, gritty, experienced fighter but this is Sakara’s fight to lose.  ‘The Italian Legionary’ has trained with a number of good Brazilian fighters in Ebeneezer Fontes Braga and Leopoldo Montenegro and his only loss since late 2002 came against the very talented but inconsistent Assuerio Silva.  And Sakara put up a stubborn fight in that one, taking the former Chute Boxe veteran to a decision.  Certainly Sakara is a much improved fighter since his pro debut at the first Cage Warriors event in the UK.  An effective, well-rounded fighter, he’s gone the distance with Silva and Roman Zentsov and by dropping down to 205 pounds he may bring size and power advantages with him.  Faircloth has gone 6-4 since the start of 2004, losing to the smaller Jason Guida, underrated Spanish fighter Daniel Tabera, a debuting Joel Stahl and St. Petersburg’s Sergey Kaznovsky.  Fairlcoth’s main weakness seems to be submissions so look for Sakara to dominate on the ground.  He may not be able to put Faircloth away though so look for the Italian to score a very clear decision win.

PREDICTION: Sakara by unanimous decision.

“Pe De Pano” Marcio Cruz vs. Keigo Kunihara

Trivia time: when was the last time a UFC event included a fighter in his MMA debut?  Answer: well, I’m not exactly sure but it was certainly a LONG time ago.  Now for another, when was the last time UFC had a fighter with such an impressive list of definable BJJ credentials?  Answer: never.  ‘Pe De Pano’ Mario Cruz is legendary in BJJ circles (and not only for his complaining when things don’t quite go his way) but this will be his first time under MMA rules and of course, his first time in the cage.  Much depends on how well the 6-time World, 8-time Pan-American and 2003 ADCC champion can adapt his amazing BJJ skills to MMA.  Still, the word is, he’s been training for MMA for over a year now.  His opponent Keigo Kunihara (3-1) has some strong grappling skills of his own.  A former national Judo champion, he also has MMA experience, most notably in King of the Cage where he’s scored wins over Timothy Mendoza and Mike Bourke.  However, his stand-up skill is questionable and not being able to put the large but fairly unskilled Bourke away inside the time limit is not a positive thing.  Nor is his 27-second guillotine choke loss to much smaller Australian submission stylist Tony Bonello in early 2003.  Kunihara, who hasn’t fought for over a year, needs to immediately put the pressure on Cruz with his fists because he simply can’t live with him on the mat.  Look for Cruz to start cautiously but catch his Japanese opponent with a submission for what is likely to be a pretty impressive debut.  And lets hope UFC can hold onto him as a big (6’4” and 240plus) submission master would be an excellent addition to their depleted heavyweight ranks.

PREDICTION: Cruz by submission late in the first round.

Jorge Rivera vs. Dennis Hallman

Fresh from his somewhat controversial decision win over Marcelo Azevedo at Cage Rage 13 lass than a month ago Rivera (11-4) faces the hugely experienced Hallman (33-10-2).  This will be Rivera’s fourth UFC appearance.  He decisioned David Loiseau in a gruelling stand-up war at UFC 44, was shocked by Lee Murray’s submission skills at UFC 46 [by the way, get well soon Lee] and gave Rich Franklin some serious problems before losing to an armbar with less than 30 seconds to go at UFC 50.  A strong, accurate striker who loves to work from the clinch against the fence, Rivera has beaten Travis Lutter, Mark Weir and Alex Reid and has only ever lost to high quality fighters like Murray, Franklin, Branden Lee Hinkle and, in his last loss, at Cage Rage 11, where he was thoroughly outclassed by a seemingly unstoppable Anderson Silva.  Hallman, still only 29 years old, has certainly been around, but is relatively new to the middleweight division, after moving up from 170.  Rivera, is a huge middleweight though and Hallman’s submission skills may not be enough to counter ‘El Conquistador’s’ physical advantages and better striking.  Hallman is certainly a very talented fighter but he rarely wins when tested with serious opposition these days.  In May he took a pasting from the undefeated Ansar Chalangov (who surely deserves more recognition) and Frank Trigg gave him a proper beating at UFC 48.  In fact, aside from a November 2004 victory over Ross Ebanez, you really have to go all the way back to December 2000 and his UFC 298 armbar win over Matt Hughes before you see any real success with a top fighter.  Recent wins over Nick Tyree (0-2) and Cedric Marks (14-11) aren’t the best preparation for fighting someone like Rivera.  Look for Rivera to punish Hallman standing and be good enough defensively to avoid too much time on the mat, where as Azevedo showed, he’s at his weakest, and walk away with a TKO win.

PREDICTION: Rivera by TKO late in the second round.

Sean Gannon vs. Branden Lee Hinkle

Massachusetts police officer, and local publicity magnet Sean ‘the Cannon’ Gannon (1-0, with a 4-1 amateur record) takes on well-travelled West Virginian wrestler Branden Lee Hinkle (11-6) in an odd, if intriguing heavyweight fight.  Gannon is of course most notable for his chaotic, bareknuckle ‘underground’ fight with Kimbo Slice and has managed to parlay the MMA Forum hype for that into a UFC contract.  A huge achievement for a large, sloppy brawler with very suspect stamina and just one professional MMA fight to his name.  Gannon, though is a very smart guy, with tons of heart and he’s proved he can really take a shot.  He also claims some credentials from NAGA submission tournaments and some Massachusetts Golden Gloves and Judo competitions, but has achieved little under MMA rules.  Whether he can cope with such an experienced and more skilled opponent is very much open to question.  Hinkle debuted back in 1998 and has generally only lost to men who were, at the time, high quality fighters.  Tapped out by Ebeneezer Fontes Braga, Carlos Barreto, Wataru Sakata and ancient Sambo legend Volk Han as well as decisioned by Maurice Smith, Hinkle amassed a 3-5 record in the first two years of his career.  Since then, he’s gone 8-1 and only lost (again by submission) in 2003 to Gabriel ‘Napao’ Gonzaga.  Over the course of his 7-year career Hinkle has used his excellent wrestling skills (he’s a former Division II NCAA national champion) and heavy hands to batter his way to wins over Masanori Suda, Travis Fulton, Jorge Rivera and Tom Sauer, as well as choking out Yoshihisa Yamamoto and decisioning Daisuke Watanabe.  Gannon is the bigger man but Hinkle’s experience and wrestling should see him take ‘the Cannon’ down and give him a brutal lesson in ground n’ pound action.  Gannon will be able to take some real punishment but look for the referee to rescue him from Hinkle’s fists and elbows late in the first round.

PREDICTION: Hinkle by TKO late in the first.

Predictions Re-cap:

Andrei Arlovski KO1 Paul Buentello

Forrest Griffin DEC3 Elvis Sinosic

Chris Lytle SUB3 Joe Riggs

Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral SUB1 Chael Sonnen

Alessio Sakara DEC3 Ron Faircloth

Marcio Cruz SUB1 Keigo Kunihara

Jorge Rivera TKO2 Dennis Hallman

Branden Lee Hinkle TKO1 Sean Gannon