Bonnar’s broken hand has deprived the show of its best TV ratings draw, and significantly reduced its potential for being a fun evening.  Whatever you think of Bonnar (I’m a fan) he’s always worth watching and the fight with Irvin looked particularly enticing.  Now, the second UFN event is left with just one big fight (there were rumours Bonnar-Irvin was actually slated for the top position on the show) as former middleweight champion Evan Tanner faces Montreal contender David Loiseau.  The undercard is fleshed out with newcomers and a couple of names from TUF1.  Actually, of the 14 fighters, half of them will be making their UFC debuts, which must surely be the highest proportion of UFC newbies on a show in years.  UFN II is also going head-to-head with Monday Night Football and a specially extended, massively hyped WWE Raw that features Mick Foley, HHH, Hulk Hogan and Steve Austin as well as some big-time matches.  Make no mistake about it.  Ultimate Fight Night II is going to be something of a TV ratings flop.  I’m predicting a 1.3 by the way, for whatever that’s worth.  Spike TV may well regret starting a ratings war with their former buddy Vince McMahon and Zuffa could end up caught in the crossfire.

Line-up:

Evan Tanner vs. David Loiseau
Brandon Vera vs. Fabiano Scherner
Spencer Fisher vs. Thiago Alves
Brock Larson vs. Jon Fitch
Chris Leben vs. Edwin Dewees
Josh Koscheck vs. Drew Fickett
Jay Hieron vs. Jonathan Goulet

October 3rd 2005,
Las Vegas

Evan Tanner vs. David Loiseau

Don’t get me wrong, this is a truly high quality middleweight fight and I can’t wait to see how it unfolds but it’s very strange in terms of long-term matchmaking.  With Matt Lindland and Ivan Salaverry gone, David Terrell injured seemingly every other day, Joe Riggs and Joe Doerksen both excellent at what they do but no real threat to the title, and a cloud hanging over Nathan Marquardt, UFC’s 185 pound division is looking a little chaotic (yet again).  With Rich Franklin, Matt Hughes (that’s if he makes the long-rumoured move upwards) and Jeremy Horn (if he stays with the company and drops to his more natural weight) all very, very unlikely to ever fight each other, the division looks short of real contenders.  So why risk someone as valuable as Loiseau by putting him in there with somebody who can’t possibly be considered for a title shot while Franklin holds the belt but has a very real chance of giving ‘the Crow’ a good beating?  Perhaps Zuffa think Tanner is a ‘shot’ fighter and are looking at this as a way to give Loiseau a high-profile win over the former champion before matching him with the winner of the UFC 56 match between Franklin and TUF veteran Nate Quarry?  Perhaps so but they’re playing a dangerous game, particularly with Evan Tanner (29-4).

Last seen having his face pounded into a bruised, bloody mess by Rich Franklin at UFC 53 in June, Tanner is back.  The former Team Quest star was never really in the fight, aside from a surprising knockdown that Franklin managed to recover from before Tanner could effectively follow up.  With Franklin using his superior striking to keep Tanner at bay, and showing off some great takedown defence, the fight degenerated into a long, drawn-out beating until an almost unrecognisable Tanner was finally rescued by the doctor, 3:25 into the 4th round.  Tanner’s unorthodox (some would say poor) stand-up technique had been extremely effective at UFC 48 when he dominated Phil Baroni for most of the fight but Franklin was too good, too controlled and too patient.  Loiseau will certainly have studied the Franklin fight and will be looking to do exactly the same thing.  When Tanner can force the fight onto his terms, he’s a brutally effective fighter.  Tanner is merciless on the ground.  Look at the elbows he dropped on Baroni at UFC 45, or the battering he gave David Terrell by the fence at UFC 51.  He’s also a very, very good wrestler who works very well from inside the clinch, throwing knees, elbows and uppercuts.  And don’t discount his submission skills either.  Tanner has picked up most of his wins by submission, one way or another.  And I’m willing to bet he is nowhere near the spent force Zuffa are likely hoping he is.  He’s a massive 185 pounder, hugely experienced and Franklin is the only man to have beaten him (he also gave Tanner a ferocious, but much quicker pasting back at UFC 42) since Tito Ortiz nearly planted him right through the mat at UFC 30 in early 2001.  ‘The Crow’ could be in real trouble here.

Like Tanner, David Loiseau (13-4) loves to work inside, firing off short punches and elbows.  But while Tanner’s tend to be heavy and slow, Loiseau’s elbows are viciously fast.  Look at the way he sliced open Jorge Rivera’s head in their fight at UFC 44.  Loiseau dropped a decision there and was heavily floored by Rivera very late in the third but Loiseau proved he had the stamina to fight at a fast pace for a full 15 minutes.  Speaking of Loiseau’s losses, he’s been tapped out twice.  The first was by Justin Bruckmann in his debut, though he avenged that just 2 months later and then, in February 2004 he walked straight into Jeremy Horn’s guillotine choke to lose in just 54 seconds.  Loiseau is unlikely to lose by submission though.  Firstly, he won’t make the same mistake as he made against Horn and secondly, Tanner rarely tries for the submission, he simply takes it if offered.  Loiseau also went three rounds with Joe Doerksen at UCC7 in a close tactical battle, and aside from an early Kimura attempt that came very close, Doerksen never really looked like submitting Loiseau.  ‘The Crow’ displayed some excellent submission defence and positioning skills, as well as his underrated wrestling to help him score a close decision win.  Loiseau’s other loss, to Jason St. Louis back in January 2001 is a little worrying though.  As with the Rivera knockdown, a single shot seemed to make him fall apart at the seams.  And most tellingly, it was from a single knee to the jaw delivered from the same type of clinch Tanner favours so much.  St. Louis followed up with another, and with some punches on the ground and you have to wonder if Loiseau can really take a knee like that from Tanner.

It’s certainly not all bad news for Loiseau though, as he’s by far the better striker on his feet.  An elusive, versatile puncher and kicker who also throws some great knees, Loiseau has some of the fastest hands around.  He can unleash some incredible stuff on his feet.  Who could forget the spinning back kick, followed by the flying knee and then punches on the ground that finished off Charles McCarthy at UFC 53?  He’s also very effective at striking on the mat (he KO’ed Mark Weir right through the Englishman’s guard at UFC 42) and his opponents have a bad habit of picking up nasty cuts.  Rivera, Tony Fryklund, Doerksen and Gideon Ray have been slashed open by ‘the Crow’.  It’s that tendency to cut his opponents, and those fast hands that make me think Loiseau, will stop Tanner late in the fight, with the former champion bleeding heavily.  There’s a very real chance Tanner’s strength and wrestling will simply allow him to grind out a win and I expect him to put Loiseau in real trouble early on, but look for Loiseau to turn it around in dramatic fashion as time starts to run out.

PREDICTION: Loiseau by TKO late in the third round.

Brandon Vera vs. Fabiano Scherner

San Diego based heavyweight Vera, undefeated at 4-0, is perhaps best known for accepting the open challenge of a drunken half naked Tank Abbott at an MMA show in Mexico a few months back.  Luckily for the overweight old boozer, nothing happened because Vera is a dangerous fighter.  And certainly more than capable of handing out a sound kicking to an inebriated has-been.  Whether he’s good enough to beat Scherner (5-1) is a different matter though.  While Vera is a fleshy 230 or so who sometimes works out with Dean Lister at City Boxing, US based, Rio de Janeiro born Scherner is a chiselled 250 and trains alongside Dennis Hallman and Benji Radach at ATT West.  Vera is certainly a good striker and he has underrated BJJ skills too.  He’s sloppy at times and he’s managed just 4 fights since his July 2002 debut but he does hold an injury assisted win, in January this year over TUF2 contestant (and Tim Sylvia’s main training partner) Mike Whitehead.  His other victims are a little less impressive though.  Andre Mussi (1-2), Don Richard (2-5-1 and 0-3 since his fight with Vera) and Adam Rivera (2-2) are hardly elite fighters.

Nor is Scherner, but he’s probably better than Vera.  He’s never gone to a decision and has tapped out his last 4 opponents, including the experienced Aaron Brink (though Brink admittedly hasn’t beaten a good fighter since 2002) in just 50 seconds.  Scherner’s only loss came in May 2004 at one of Antonio Inoki’s ludicrous Jungle Fight shows when he was guillotined by the talented but inconsistent Assuerio Silva.  Like Vera, Scherner hasn’t generally faced top opposition.  Team Quest’s Brian Stromberg is 4-6 as a pro and Demian Decorah is 3-8 since the start of 2004 but Scherner did tap both of them out.  This is a step-up for both fighters and it really could go either way.  Scherner has a better ground game, has faced slightly better competition and has the size advantage so I’m going with him.  Let’s hope one or both of them look impressive anyway because after watching the heavyweight fights on TUF2, that division doesn’t look to be getting any better anytime soon.

PREDICTION: Scherner by submission late in the first.

Spencer Fisher vs. Thiago Alves

Representatives from two of the country’s best teams face other in this one as Miletich student Fisher (14-1) meets Brazilian-born American Top Team fighter Thiago Alves (6-1).  Fisher is a well-rounded, explosive fighter on a 5-fight winning streak.  His only professional loss came by decision to Carlo Prater (a Thugjitsu teammate of Yves Edwards who holds wins over Claudinor Fontinelle and TUF 2 loudmouth Melvin Guillard), in May 2004.  Since that loss he’s finished all 5 opponents inside the distance, 2 with triangle chokes and 3 by KO/TKO.  In his last outing he battered experienced Wisconsin submission artist Henry Matamoros in the first round, and a month earlier needed just 33 seconds to KO an overmatched Kyle Watson.  Fisher also holds a decision win over Josh Neer, who was quickly choked out by Drew Fickett at the first UFN in August.  A heavy-handed puncher with strong ground skills and excellent conditioning, Fisher is a typical Miletich product and will be very hard to beat.

Thiago ‘Pitbull’ Alves started his career in his native Brazil but has been based in the US since 2003.  His most recent win came by KO in a mere 15 seconds over Jeff Cox at KOTC 25 in February.  He’s also beaten Eddie Bravo protégé Jason Chambers.  However, his one loss, by submission to the capable, but hardly world-beating Derrick Noble back in December 2003 might indicate he has some real weaknesses that someone like Fisher can exploit.  Look for the Miletich man to control the action and score an impressive win.

PREDICTION: Fisher by KO early in the second round.

Brock Larson vs. Jon Fitch

This battle of two Midwestern fighters one could turn into a real war.  Both are very good grapplers, though Fitch may have the edge in takedowns and ground control over slam-happy Larson.  Undefeated Minnesotan Larson (12-0) has won half his fights with submission holds (armbars, keylocks and chokes) and has extracted 3 more submissions with his fists.  He loves to haul opponents off their feet and slam them to the mat before going to work with some classic ground n’ pound action.  And he’s only gone the distance once, claiming a decision win over his toughest opponent yet, BTT Canada’s Stephan Potvin in March.  They breed some tough people in Minnesota and Larson, who won a one-night tournament at Extreme Challenge 63 in July making all 3 of his opponents tap out, is no exception.  Most impressively, he beat up-and-coming Miletich fighter Ryan McGivern with a keylock in the final of that tournament.  Still, you have to wonder how much quality training Larson really gets.  Particularly when compared to someone like Fitch.

Fort Wayne, Indiana born wrestler Fitch (7-2), who now trains in San Jose at the American Kickboxing Academy had a shaky start to his professional career, with 2 losses and a no-contest, but has since reeled off a 7-fight winning streak against some pretty notable fighters.  Like Larson, he’s won a one-night tournament, in December 2004 in Tijuana, Mexico, showing excellent stamina along the way.  That night’s first round opponent Mike Seal is nothing special but Jorge Ortiz and the man Fitch beat in the final, Alex Serdyukov are both good fighters.  Serdyukov in particular, though pretty sloppy, could be a star of the future.  In November 2003 Fitch battered UFC veteran Shonie Carter into submission and, in his most recent fight scored a bitterly disputed split decision win over Canadian kickboxer Jeff Joslin.  Fitch showed an excellent chin and some neat striking skills but was clearly the beneficiary of some awful refereeing and some very poor judging.  With a run of 19 undefeated fights between them, and exposure on national television the stakes are high for Larson and Fitch.  Larson usually competes at middleweight while Fitch is more used to fighting at 170 pounds but the weight difference won’t be a factor here.  As a former college wrestler, and a highly successful one (at Purdue), 27-year-old Fitch is an experienced, effective weight-cutter.  He’s also pretty heavy-handed and is an exciting brawler, capable of some nice counter-punching too.  His scrap with Joslin was fantastic and I’m going for Fitch to pull off the win here in what could be another cracking fight.  Win or lose, Fitch is an excellent addition to the UFC roster and Joe Silva could do far worse than give Joslin a call for an almost guaranteed war with Fitch in a few months time.

PREDICTION: Fitch by TKO late in the second round.

Chris Leben vs. Edwin Dewees

He’s back!  Everyone’s favourite TUF drunkard makes a quick return to the Octagon after his close win over Patrick Cote at the first UFN special.  Team Quest fighter Leben (12-1) should have an easier time here after just about passing a pretty big test with Cote.  Most expected all-out war between two heavy-handed bangers but Leben, despite being dropped late in the second, controlled the action pretty well, and took some good shots along the way.  More aggressive than his opponent, Leben earned his win and that fight may have gone some way towards repairing some of the damage done by his two, officially unrecorded losses on the show.  He was certainly doing well before being cut by Kenny Florian but looked awful against Josh Koscheck in their mid-season snoozefest.  Prior to his reality TV debut, Leben was widely viewed as one his country’s best 185 pound prospects.  He was, and is capable of being one of it’s most exciting at least.  Evidence of that came in his one-punch KO over Mike Swick in January 2004 and, 4 months later, his war with Joe Doerksen.  Leben lost a unanimous decision but the fight was excellent and Leben showed incredible heart and toughness in escaping from what looked to be a perfect armbar late in the first round.  Leben hits hard and is very dangerous in the clinch, even if his striking technique is questionable the 25 year-old can get by mainly on power, aggression, an excellent chin and sheer stubbornness.

Arizona fighter Edwin ‘Babyface’ Dewees (32-7) makes a surprising return to UFC two years, and just 3 fights, after being absolutely hammered by Rich Franklin at UFC 44.  Despite being bothered by a serious groin injury Franklin thoroughly outclassed Dewees and its hard to see what wins over Rich Alten (a 1-4 Rage in the Cage regular), Chance Williams (making his MMA debut) and Jason Geris (a 2-1 Cal Worsham protégé) have done to earn Dewees another chance.  Unless he’s simply being brought in to provide a little entertainment before Leben KO’s him.  Which of course, would be perfect matchmaking.  Dewees is also in his mid-20s and loves a good brawl.  He’s just not as talented.  He’s very, very experienced, packing 38 fights into a career that only started in April 2000 and saw him take a 20 month break after the Franklin battering.  A real regular on the Rage in the Cage shows (he’s appeared on 32 of them), Dewees has plenty of wins under his belt.  But very few against high quality opposition.  In fact, Dewees generally loses to good fighters.  He’s been beaten by Franklin, Drew Fickett (though he does hold a controversial split decision win over the smaller grappler as well) and TUF2 contestant Joe Stevenson.  Dewees has certainly improved greatly from the early part of his career (he was 3-3 after 6 fights) but wins over Homer Moore, Christophe Leninger, Shannon Ritch and guys like Trinity Boykin and MacArthur Blueback (I just HAD to name-check that pair) just aren’t enough.  Leben has had far fewer fights, but has faced much better opposition and Dewees is a pretty big fish in a pretty small pond.  The Arizona scene is very lively but it’s a long way from the UFC.  ‘Babyface’ will put up a damn good fight, and it looks to be very entertaining, but there’s only really likely to be one winner.

PREDICTION: Leben by KO late in the first round.

Josh Koscheck vs. Drew Fickett

Another TUF veteran returning for another UFN appearance, Koscheck (officially 4-0) should have a much tougher time with the experienced Fickett (24-3) than he did with Pete Spratt back in August.  Many expected the tall striker to have too many weapons and too much experience for the still-learning wrestler.  However, what Spratt didn’t have, was the faintest idea of how to avoid a rear naked choke (perhaps Zuffa should book him against Frank Trigg in a special match where the move is outlawed) as Koscheck crawled all over him before scoring an impressive looking first round win.  Improving all the time, training at AKA in San Jose, having a truly excellent college wrestling pedigree and a big 170 pounder, Koscheck has a bright future.  He pushed Diego Sanchez extremely hard in their fight before losing a decision and looked very, very good in KOing Chris Sanford at the live finale. 

Fickett is a good wrestler himself.  Though no UFC welterweight has such good credentials (even Matt Hughes isn’t a 4-time All-American) as Koscheck.  The Arizona Combat Sports fighter is also very experienced and a pretty gifted submission specialist.  He was outclassed at UFC 51 by Nick Diaz but looked excellent in his quick submission win over the highly touted Josh Neer at the last UFN event.  In all, he’s finished off 12 opponents with a variety of different chokes.  Aside from the Diaz loss, he’s only been defeated by Landon Showalter and, controversially, by Edwin Dewees (he beat Dewees in a rematch 3 months later) and has beaten Kenny Florian and Dennis Hallman.  Koscheck showed some decent submission skills against Spratt, but he’d better have been working on submission defence for this one.  Koscheck is certainly the better wrestler and should be able to take Fickett to the mat fairly easily.  Whether he really wants to is another matter.  He may want to test out his stand-up skills a little but Fickett has done some amateur boxing so that may not be the smartest move for Koscheck.  Eventually, the wrestler will go back to what he’s most comfortable with, and as long as he stays wary of Fickett’s submission skills, he should be able to pound out a TKO win on the ground.

PREDICTION: Koscheck by TKO early in the third round.

Jay Hieron vs. Johnathan Goulet

Long Island, NY native Hieron (6-1) makes his UFC return some 16 months after being brutally overwhelmed by Georges St. Pierre at UFC 48 and he’ll be looking for a much better result this time against another Quebecker, Johnathan Goulet (13-5).  Since his fight with St. Pierre, Hieron has taken 3 successive wins, a stoppage on cuts over the respected Ronald Jhun and a pair of commanding decision wins over Adam Lynn and Pat Healy, both decent fighters.  Billed as a heavy-handed puncher like teammate Phil Baroni for his UFC debut, Hieron is certainly aggressive, though he’s scored just one inside the distance win with his fists when Fernando Munoz (in his only MMA fight) tapped to punches on the ground in April 2004.  Hieron is a good fighter who had little chance to show off his skills with GSP.

Goulet, who usually fights at around 185 pounds is naturally bigger and more experienced than Hieron.  The UCC/TKO regular debuted in 2001 and is currently riding an 8-fight winning streak that dates back to November 2003.  A well-rounded, versatile fighter, Goulet holds a very debatable decision win over Jeff Joslin.  Poor Joslin by the way can never seem to catch a break, even in Canada.  See the Fitch-Larson section for more details.  Goulet has also beaten Tony Fryklund (on a cut) and John Alessio (again by decision).  In his last fight Goulet tapped out the experienced, but not overly talented Kyle Jensen.  Goulet doesn’t seem to travel too well though.  In two trips to the U.S. he’s 1-2, scoring a win over Jason Rigsby in Extreme Challenge 49 but then being battered by KOTC regular Brendan Seguin later that night.  Four months later, in June 2003, Goulet travelled to Hawaii where he was KO’ed by the decidedly average (1-4-1 professional record) Kaipo Kalama in just 12 seconds.  That fight and his losses in Canada to James Gabert, Fryklund and Yan Pellerin (all by KO or TKO) suggest Goulet may not have the world’s best chin and Hieron should be able to exploit that.  Look for a competitive fight though, and a win for Hieron.

PREDICTION: Hieron by TKO late in the second round.

Predictions Re-cap:

David Loiseau TKO3 Evan Tanner
Fabiano Scherner SUB1 Brandon Vera
Spencer Fisher KO2 Thiago Alves
Jon Fitch TKO2 Brock Larson
Chris Leben KO1 Edwin Dewees
Josh Koscheck TKO3 Drew Fickett
Jay Hieron TKO2 Johnathan Goulet

A live PlayBy Play of this event will be held here.