Line-up:

Nathan Marquardt vs. Ivan Salaverry
Chris Leben vs. Patrick Cote
Nathan Quarry vs. Pete Sell
Stephan Bonner vs. Sam Hoger
Josh Koscheck vs. Pete Spratt
Mike Swick vs. Gideon Ray
Kenny Florian vs. Alex Karalexis
Drew Fickett vs. Josh Neer

August 6th, Cox Pavillion, Las Vegas

Ivan Salaverry vs. Nathan Marquardt

In the night’s main event Salaverry (a former social worker by the way) will be making his fourth UFC appearance but has never been involved in a match anywhere near as high profile as this.  His opponent Marquardt is making his UFC debut and this will be only his third fight in the USA in the last 5 years.  The 34-year old Salaverry (11-3) has been on a roll since returning to the company in late 2004.  First he forced an (injury-assisted) tapout from the dangerous Tony Fryklund at UFC 50 and then, in his last outing, blasted heavy-handed, bigmouthed brawler with a couple of stunning up kicks before finishing him off with a sweet triangle choke.  A win that prompted a gloriously bizarre victory celebration that had to be seen to be believed as Salaverry pranced around the Octagon like a deranged pixie.  Salaverry’s previous UFC run was back in 2002 where he contested a forgotten classic with Andrei Semenov (cruelly and ludicrously cut from the DVD release in an editing decision I’ll complain bitterly of until the day I die) at UFC 37.  Salaverry won that one by TKO but was outwrestled and out-hustled by an unusually aggressive Matt Lindland in losing a very clear decision at UFC 39.  Outside the Octagon, Salaverry has lost just twice, one by KO to the impressive but always underrated Akihiro Gono back in 2001 and the other due to a hand injury suffered against giant kickboxer Rene Rooze in 2003.  Salaverry is an impressive all-rounder with particularly good grappling and submission skills and has trained for years with the AMC Pankration camp with Matt Hume and Josh Barnett.  More recently, Zuffa outcast Tito Ortiz has been working with Salaverry and his team.  Salaverry is also an excellent tactician who prepares for his fights by watching videotapes of his opponents and should be able to come up with a gameplan for Marquardt.

Former 2-time Middleweight King of Pancrase Marquardt (19-6-2) fights on US soil for the first time since September 2003.  Like former rival Kimua Kunioku (Marquardt is 1-1-1 against him, dropping his title to Kunioku in 2001 and winning it back a year later), the Colorado native and sometime training partner of Duane ‘Bang’ Ludwig has split from the company he called home for so many years to try and start afresh elsewhere.  Fully 20 of Marquardt’s 27 professional fights were for Pancrase and aside from his predictable first round battering of Steve Gomm at IFC Global Domination in 2003, hasn’t fought in a cage in years.  And Salaverry won’t be an easy introduction into UFC either.  During his time with Pancrase, Marquardt beat Kunioku, Daiju Takase, Shonie Carter, Izuru Takeuchi and the impressive Kazuo Misaki.  But he also lost to Genki Sudo, Kunioku, Takeuchi, Keiichiro Yamamiya and Ricardo Almeida.  Gil Castillo also beat Marquardt by decision back in 2001.  Notably, just 2 of his losses have come inside the distance – both by submission – to Sudo and Almeida (the latter catching Marquardt with a perfect guillotine choke late in the first round to capture the Pancrase belt in November 2003).

This is a superb match-up and it will tell us a great deal about the victor’s standing in the UFC 185 pound division.  A win for Salaverry will surely push him a step closer to at the very least, a title eliminator, while a winning debut for Marquardt will mean yet another top quality fighter is added to the already impressive mix of people eyeing up Rich Franklin’s belt.  These two are incredibly evenly matched.  Both have excellent stamina and submission skills, serious grappling experience and both are handy with their fists and feet.  And given how well matched they are, and how smart each fighter is defensively, its hard to see either being stopped inside the distance.  Salaverry has never submitted and Marquardt has never been KO’ed.  This one has ‘decision’ written all over it but it remains a truly compelling fight that should showcase a wide variety of skills.  I’m going for Salaverry’s greater experience in the cage to pull him through an extremely close fight by decision.

PREDICTION: Salaverry by unanimous decision.

Chris Leben vs. Patrick Cote

‘Controversial’ Team Quest puncher Chris Leben (11-1) faces a truly serious test against Canadian banger Patrick Cote in what promises to be an explosive fight.  Cote (6-2) will be desperate to avoid going 0-3 for Zuffa and Leben badly needs a win after being TUF’s ratings magnet but losing twice during the shows run.  Whatever happens, it is unlikely this will go the distance.  Both fighters love to strike and have a common opponent in Joe Doerksen.  Cote was choked out by his fellow Canadian at UFC 52, while Leben dropped a decision, and his unbeaten record, to Doerksen in a May 2004 war at FFC9.  During his run on TUF, Leben managed to mightily annoy former opponent Mike Swick about their fight earlier in the year where Leben scored a come from behind KO, as well as find a lifelong enemy in the shape of Josh Koscheck.  Inside the Octagon though, Koscheck outsmarted and outwrestled Leben for a dull, but effective decision win and even when Leben was brought back to the house, his luck ran out when he lost by TKO to the smaller Kenny Florian.  Leben was winning that one but Florian turned it around with a nasty elbow that stopped the fight due to a horrible cut over Leben’s right eye.  Leben did have some success at the April 9th season finale though – battering Jason Thacker, commonly regarded as the weakest fighter of the series – in 95 seconds.  It’s bad enough a drunken Leben pissed on his bed, but beating him up as well?

Leben’s reality show shenanigans aside, he is a good fighter.  Not as good as some think though.  Aside from Swick, his biggest win came against Benji Radach, and that was a TKO due to a broken nose in a fight where Radach was looking good.  Leben is a very entertaining fighter but has some major weaknesses.  He’s strong and stubborn (Doerksen had a perfect armbar in their fight and Leben refused to tap and found a way to escape) but his takedown defence is poor for a Team Quest fighter and he seems to cut easily.  His striking is a little suspect too.  Leben certainly hits hard and has a ferocious, walk forward style that really puts the pressure on opponents but his technique is poor.  He regularly stands square on to his opponents, flat-footed and swings arm punches.  Weaknesses like these could well be exploited by Cote.  The BTT Canada fighter, who trains with Georges St. Pierre is, like Leben, a stubborn striker who loves to swing.  Stepping in as a late substitute at UFC 50 he briefly floored the (possibly chinny) Tito Ortiz before being mauled and wrestled to a decision loss.  And Doerksen was just too well-rounded and experienced for him.  Cote does own a 21 second KO of Bill Mahood and victories over decent fighters like Steve Vigneault, Yan Pellerin and Montreal beanpole Ricardeau Francois.  As a former 205 pounder, although he was fleshy at the higher weight, Cote is also naturally bigger and his striking could cause Leben some real problems.  He’s a concussive puncher and has better technique than Leben.  His punches are crisper and while Leben is brutally effective with bodyshots in the clinch Cote has better punching from range and that’s how I think this one will be mostly decided.  Look for Cote and Leben to brawl their way through a bruising encounter where the Canadian lands enough of his shots to open up a cut on Leben’s face and score a TKO that way.  But don’t expect that to be the last the UFC sees of Leben though.  He’s a brawler, a compelling character, a cracking interview and a proven TV ratings draw so I’m sure he’ll be back.

PREDICTION: Cote by TKO early in the third round.

Nathan Quarry vs. Pete Sell

Popular Team Quest fighter/coach Nathan Quarry (7-1) returns to action just 2 months after overwhelming the far more experienced Shonie Carter with strikes for a quick TKO and a winning pay-per-view debut at UFC 53.  Quarry, who never fought during TUF due to injury but attracted immense goodwill as the straight-talking older brother type that made him the opposite of the Koshchecks and the Southworths in the house.  A regular training partner of Randy Couture, Matt Lindland and Heath Sims, Quarry certainly won’t be underprepared for this fight.  Quarry also has heavy hands (he battered Lodune Sincaid on the April 9th TUF season finale) and strong submission defence.  He’s also won a couple of fights with submission holds himself.  His only loss came by decision to the impressive Gustavo Machado just over 2 years ago.  Crudely speaking, if ‘Ximu’ couldn’t catch him with a submission then it seems unlikely ‘Drago’ Sell will. 

But MMA usually isn’t that simple, and Sell (5-0) could be a dangerous opponent for Quarry.  Matt Serra’s top student sprang from obscurity at UFC 51 where he literally put Phil Baroni to sleep with a guillotine choke in a fight he looked to be on the way to losing by decision.  Sell did well to avoid Baroni’s dangerous paws and showed off some impressive BJJ skills, as well as heart, stamina and maturity in his first fight on the big stage.  Before his fight with Baroni, his biggest wins had come against Chris Ligouri (one by decision, one by submission) but it’s unlikely his unbeaten record will remain intact after this fight.  The key to this match will be Quarry’s wrestling and the Oregon fighter should be good enough to control Sell enough to score a clear decision win or late stoppage.

PREDICTION: Quarry by TKO midway through the third round.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Sam Hoger

The almost unbelievably likeable Bonnar, loser of THAT epic brawl with Forrest Griffin squares off against Sam “I am not a thief” Hoger in what looks to be an intriguing fight.  Bonnar (6-2) should be the clear favourite in this one but officially ‘undefeated’ Miletich student Hoger (5-0) surprised plenty of people by out-thinking and outworking Bobby Southworth on his way to a well-deserved decision win back in April.  Nothing Hoger had done in his short MMA career, or on the show itself would have led anyone to believe he’d actually beat the more experienced, bigger Southworth.  But Hoger showed up in great shape, with a smart gameplan and won the fight.  In Hoger’s TKO loss to Griffin in the semi-finals of TUF he actually controlled the first round by continually throwing kicks but as soon as Griffin secured the clinch and started throwing knees the fight was over for the one dimensional Hoger and he was stopped after 5 solid knees and a flurry of right handers on the ground.

Bonnar is a little more experienced than Hoger, and is a solid all-round fighter who holds submission wins over respected fighters like Sean Sallee and Brian Ebersole.  On TUF itself Bonnar struggled badly against Mike Swick but pulled out the victory late in the first with a tight triangle/armbar combination and squeezed past Bobby Southworth by decision in a close, absorbing fight where his aggression saw him given the win over Southworth’s counter-striking style.  Whoever deserved the win, it was a very entertaining fight and Bonnar is always well worth watching.  Southworth complained bitterly (of course) but realistically, the fight could have gone either way.  And in the season finale, the Illinois native showed incredible heart and a crowd pleasing willingness to just throw down and brawl against Griffin.  Even better, he arguably did enough to deserve the decision as well.  Bonnar gave and took some heavy shots in that one and clearly showed he has a good chin.  Some might point to his exhaustion near the end as a weak point but few fighters could be expected to keep up that kind of pace for long so I doubt it will be much of a factor in this one.  In Bonnar’s only other loss, to Antoni Inoki’s protégé Ryoto Machida at the ludicrous Jungle Fight 1, Bonnar was just getting into a rhythm and had stung Inoki’s protégé with some fierce knees when he was stopped because of cuts to his face and damage to his nose.  Bonnar certainly didn’t look good early in the fight but was just starting to make things interesting when it was, somewhat unfairly, waved off.  Clearly, Bonnar is the better fighter on paper, and if he looks impressive here, Zuffa should look at booking a Bonnar-Griffin rematch before the end of the year.  Hoger surprised Southworth but I don’t expect Bonnar to be caught out here.  Instead he should be able to use his unorthodox striking and heart on his way to a stoppage win.  Hoger may have his moments but this Bonnar’s fight to win.  And win it he will.

PREDICTION: Bonnar by TKO late in the second.

Josh Koscheck vs. Pete Spratt

Koscheck, the fuzzy-haired, petulant and generally disagreeable wrestler from the Ultimate Fighter, faces a skilled striker, in Pete Spratt, in a classic clash of styles.  Koscheck (3-0) only began fighting in early 2004 and entered Zuffa’s reality show at 2-0, including a submission win over Cruz Chacon in his debut.  In fights on the show itself, he laid and prayed his way to a decision win over bitter rival Chris Leben after 2 dismal rounds and gave Diego Sanchez and extremely hard fight before dropping a 3 round decision.  But it was his behaviour outside the cage and in the house that explains why he’s booed every time his face is shown on UFC broadcasts.  Still, there should be plenty of people out there willing to shell out a few dollars to see him get a kicking.  So Zuffa must be hoping Spratt doesn’t do it on free TV and take some of the lustre off him before someone else a bit more marketable (Leben perhaps?) gets the chance. 

Spratt (11-6) is certainly capable of doing just that.  He did it to Robbie Lawler at UFC 42, where his technically superior striking and smarter strategy paid off as he scored a TKO win when Lawler (who was being hit and repeatedly frustrated) quit with a hip injury.  Spratt is inconsistent though, going 5-6 since opening up his career with 6 straight wins.  Aside from the Lawler fight his most impressive wins are against Rich Clementi and Zach Light while he’s lost (usually in very one-sided fights) to Ronald Jhun, Steve Berger, Carlos Newton, Georges St. Pierre and Chris Lytle.  He’s also a little one-dimensional and despite some submission wins, often seems way out of his element on the mat.  This will be Spratt’s first fight at middleweight and he’ll be facing a naturally bigger man, and a very good wrestler who’s an expert in weight-cutting.  Koscheck was very good (in an efficiently boring way) at shutting down another dangerous striker in Leben.  It was clear from his fight with Chris Sanford on April 9th (a pretty impressive KO victory) that Koscheck, now training at the American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) in San Jose, had improved since TUF was taped and if he’s continued that progress he could be too much for the ‘Secret Weapon’.  Koscheck should be able to take Spratt down early and often while keeping him there, handing out some classic UFC wrestler punishment with fists and elbows on his way to a clear, unanimous decision.

PREDICTION: Koscheck by unanimous decision.

Mike Swick vs. Gideon Ray

Swick, who competed on TUF at 205 pounds, sensibly drops back to his natural 185 for this one.  And he could eventually end up as a force in the company’s already stacked middleweight division.  Officially holding a 6-1 record, Swick fought just once during the TV series, losing to Stephan Bonnar.  However, that was an excellent performance by Swick where he came incredibly close to tapping the bigger man out with a guillotine choke and was controlling the action until near the end of the first round.  Swick had been landing plenty of punches but Bonnar, who was going for a triangle choke, managed to trap Swick’s arm as well for a tapout just 2 seconds before the buzzer.  At the TUF finale, Swick simply overwhelmed Alex Schoenauer with wild punches for a 20 second KO win.  Swick, who has trained at AKA with the likes of Paul Buentello, Trevor Prangley and Josh Thomson for years, is a well-rounded striker with decent ground skills.  In his only ‘official’ loss, he was well in control of future TUF housemate Chris Leben before being KO’ed with a massive haymaker in the second round.  Aside from Bonnar and Leben though, Swick has fought fairly weak opposition and wins over the likes of Butch Bacon, Kengo Ura and James Gabert are hardly enough to prepare him for the UFC. 

Swick’s opponent (replacing the injured Keith Rockel) Gideon Ray (9-2-1) won his most recent fight against the seriously experienced, if limited, Dennis Reed but prior to that was busy having his face re-arranged by David Loiseau’s knees at UFC 51.  Ray is probably the perfect opponent for Swick here.  He’s a tough, capable fighter who is at least somewhat known to UFC fans and despite few notable wins, he’s only lost to Loiseau and Jason Black.  Mike Swick should be able to add his name to that list, and do it by stoppage, sometime in the second round.

PREDICTION: Swick by TKO late in the second round.

Kenny Florian vs. Alex Karalexis

Florian (1-2) and Karalexis (2-0) face each other in a battle of two Massachussetts natives, both still inexperienced in MMA and former Ultimate Fighter housemates.  Oh, and one more thing they have in common: both took a quick beating in their TUF fights with Diego Sanchez.  Of the two, Florian did much better as Karalexis was simply destroyed by the ‘Nightmare’ in episode 4.  Florian is coming off his loss to Sanchez in the finale, and before entering the house lost a creditable decision defeat to the vastly more experienced Drew Fickett in July 2004.  In fact, his only ‘official’ win came by submission in his February 2004 debut against New England based boxer Bobby McAndrews who was bigger than Florian but thoroughly clueless on the ground.  In his only fight during the main TUF series Florian, giving up significant weight, beat Chris Leben by TKO after opening up a nasty cut with a nice elbow late in the second (and final) round.  Leben, though looking ragged, was well on his way to a decision win there though but Florian showed some decent stand-up skills to pull off a surprising win.  Florian certainly has heart and some very good BJJ skills but realistically, if it weren’t for the reality show he likely wouldn’t be considered UFC material. 

The same can be said for Karalexis who, oddly enough, debuted on the same event as Florian in early 2004, picking up a decision win.  He entered TUF with a 1-0 record and should be thankful the fights on the series don’t ‘officially’ count since Sanchez gave him a real beating.  The bigger, more experienced fighter took Karalexis down immediately, then punched him at will until slapping on the rear naked choke for an utterly one-sided victory.  On April 9th Karalexis KO’ed another of Sanchez’ victims, Josh Rafferty, with ease but nothing he did there should have made anyone think he really belongs in the UFC at this stage of his career.  Karalexis does punch well but seems small, even at 170 and I expect this to be his last fight for Zuffa for quite awhile.  Look for Florian to take this one to the ground and win it there.

PREDICTION: Florian by submission late in the first round.

Drew Fickett vs. Josh Neer

Finally, Drew Fickett returns from his UFC 51 battering at the hands of Nick Diaz to take on Josh ‘The Dentist’ Neer.  Fickett (23-3) since his debut in 1999 holds wins over Dennis Hallman and Edwin Dewees.  He has also beaten Kenny Florian by decision in a fight where Dana White was actually scouting the Arizona based wrestler/boxer for TUF but was so impressed with his performance he offered Fickett a shot at UFC ‘proper’ and gave Florian a spot on the reality show.  His only losses have come against Diaz, Dewees (in their first fight) and Landon Showalter. 

Neer (13-1-1) has already racked up 5 fights in 2005, after appearing 8 times in 2004 and clearly likes to keep busy.  He’s also on a 10-fight winning streak since his (split) decision loss to Miletich student Spencer Fisher in March 2004.  Like Fickett, Neer is a well-rounded fighter but while Fickett loves the submission game, the Iowa born ‘Dentist’ tends to favour his fists and 8 of his wins have come from strikes.  I expect Neer to score his biggest career win, in impressive fashion, here.

PREDICTION: Neer by TKO midway throiught he second round.

Prediction Recap:

Ivan Salaverry DEC Nathan Marquardt
Patrick Cote TKO3 Chris Leben
Nathan Quarry TKO3 Pete Sell
Stephan Bonnar TKO2 Sam Hoger
Josh Koscheck DEC Pete Spratt
Mike Swick TKO2 Gideon Ray
Kenny Florain SUB1 Alex Karalexis
Josh Neer TKO2 Drew Fickett