By the way, for those wondering how seriously to take my actual predictions, here’s an update of my Kakutougi success so far – UFC 51 (3 of 8 winners, I won’t include picking Loiseau over Riggs as ‘The Crow’ actually beat Gideon Ray), Shamrock-Franklin (Franklin), UFC 52 (5 of 8, picking Couture, Trigg and Riggs wrongly) and Cage Rage 11 (6 of 12).  So you see, I’m improving from awful to, well, achieving the same statistical success rate you could expect by flipping a coin or playing eeny-meeny-miney-mo.  It’s a kind of progress, at least.  Anyway, onto the preview.  With no running order decided at the time of writing this I’ve gone with the most important fights first and then worked down the card in a fairly random way.

UFC 53 Line-up
Evan Tanner vs. Rich Franklin
Andrei Arlovski vs. Justin Eilers
Forrest Griffin vs. Bill Mahood
Matt Serra vs. Karo Parisyan
Nick Diaz vs. Koji Oishi
David Loiseau vs. Charles McCarthy
Nathan Quarry vs. Shonie Carter
Paul Buentello vs. Kevin Jordan

UFC Middleweight Title: Evan Tanner (Champion) vs. Rich Franklin (Challenger)

Zuffa haven’t exactly gone easy on Tanner when picking an opponent for his first title defence.  It’s bad enough he was clearly positioned as the underdog for the fight with David Terrell but now he gets to fight the company’s latest golden boy, and the only man to beat him the last 4 years, Rich ‘Ace’ Franklin.  And this is going to be a very, very hard fight for the former Team Quest star, now handling his own career and training with Curtis Crawford.  34-year-old Tanner (29-3) has looked great since dropping down a weight division, a decision prompted by his loss, at UFC 42, to Franklin.  Middleweight success was immediate, as Tanner beat Phil Baroni at UFC 45.  A repeat of the Franklin disaster looked imminent as Baroni hurt Tanner badly and early, but showing excellent survival instincts and helped by the referee’s intervention to have his cuts checked, Tanner held on.  By this point, that is 2 minutes into the fight, Baroni was exhausted and Tanner took him down, pressed him to the fence and started handing out some punishment with those brutal elbows of his.  A miscommunication between Larry Landless and Baroni led to a premature stoppage but Baroni had already started eating some big shots, was mounted and gassed out and the most likely outcome would have been a Tanner win anyway.  But thanks to the controversy, they were rematched at UFC 48, and Tanner dominated.  Aside from a brief period in the third where he looked shaky under a Baroni barrage, Tanner controlled the action throughout.  Using his excellent wrestling, a curious counterpunching style and his trademark knees and elbows earned himself a very clear decision win.  A predictably quick submission win over Robbie Lawler followed at UFC 50 and in February, at UFC 51 he got his title shot as the status of Murillo Bustamante’s old title was finally resolved after about 129 years of uncertainty.  Tanner looked to be in trouble early as Terrell fired off some high kicks and came forward aggressively, looking to repeat his quick KO win over Matt Lindland.  Terrell was even the aggressor in going for takedowns and caught Tanner with a guillotine by the fence.  Calmly, Tanner worked his way out of it but seemed on the verge of tapping out until dumping Terrell on his back, by the cage.  And that was it.  From there Tanner just abused Terrell for the rest of the fight.  Acutely aware of Terrell’s submission skills Tanner overwhelmed him, forcing the younger man to do nothing more than cover up as he bludgeoned him with punches, hammer fists and elbows.  With Tanner landing shot after shot after shot, referee Herb Dean had no choice but to stop the fight late in the first round.

Franklin, (17-1) is 30 years old and as the recipient of a bumper new multi-fight contract after his brutal KO of Ken Shamrock, is being positioned as Zuffa’s newest poster boy.  Clearly the company want him to make it as a breakout star.  Why else is he competing in the ‘wrong’ weight division?  Franklin should really be fighting at 205 but since he’d have to face Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture at the higher weight, Zuffa have slotted him into the middleweight division instead.  It’s a smart move by them since Franklin probably couldn’t beat those two but can make a big impact by cutting weight to fight in the talent packed middleweight division, fight a few times at 185, then, when the timing is right, go back up to 205 for a shot at the title.  Unfortunately for them, and Franklin, he may not get past the first hurdle.  It seems to odd this should be such a close fight when you think back to UFC 42 in April 2003.  Looking strong, using his superior punching technique and showing great maturity, Franklin made a big splash on his UFC debut as he battered Tanner to defeat in 2:40 of the first round.  Tanner clearly couldn’t handle Franklin’s power and when hurt Franklin was merciless, battering the older man to the mat for a truly impressive win.  Since then, Tanner has gone 4-0 while the busier former schoolteacher has gone 7-1.  And none of those fights have gone the distance either.  Mixing in dates in Hawaii, Alaska and Japan with his UFC appearances, Franklin has battered Edwin Dewees (despite a nasty groin injury), tapped out Jorge Rivera, beaten down Curtis Stout and destroyed Ken Shamrock.  He’s also suffered the only loss of his career, a somewhat shocking loss to Antonio Inoki’s protégé Ryoto Machida on New Year’s Eve 2003.  Let’s look at some of those fights in detail.

Franklin looked incredible against Dewees but 3 months later looked absolutely awful against Machida.  Looking huge and muscular, facing a younger, smaller fighter with just 2 professional fights compared to Franklin’s 14, ‘Ace’ looked anything but.  Unusually passive and slow, Franklin looked like the novice.  His only contribution to the first round was eating jabs, holding guard on the mat, being dropped by a two punch combination and trying desperately to survive the ensuing onslaught.  He lasted the round but was clearly getting a kicking.  He at least landed a couple of punches early in the second but a short left hook, a hard kick to the face, another left and a couple of rights on the mat ended the fight 1:03 into the second with Franklin comprehensively knocked out.  Ten months later Franklin was back in the UFC, this time as a middleweight for his fight with Jorge Rivera.  Looking almost skeletal in the face Franklin had a tough time with Rivera, a strong, underrated fighter in a hard, bruising fight.  Franklin clearly won the first round, looking excellent striking in the clinch and hurting Rivera a couple of times.  But things changed a little in the next round.  Tiring, Franklin was clearly rocked by Rivera and looked very shaky for a few seconds before ducking away from Rivera’s attempts to follow up.  Franklin finished the round strongly but was looking far from invincible.  A slow third round saw both land messy strikes and Franklin picked up a nasty cut to add to a horrible swelling under his left eye.  Late in the round, Franklin got a takedown and after landing a few elbows and punches, started working for an armbar, spinning into it beautifully for the submission win with just 32 seconds to go.  And most recently, at the Ultimate Fighter live finale, Franklin survived a couple of leg submission attempts and pounced on a Ken Shamrock slip to batter the legend unconscious with a nasty barrage of punches in just 2:42.

So how will this one work out?  Both are highly skilled, very experienced fighters.  Both are huge for middleweights.  Both can and have been hurt in the past.  Franklin does hold that win over Tanner, but that was over two years ago, in a different weight class.  Since then Franklin was destroyed by Machida, struggled with Rivera and beat a 41-year-old fighting legend in a fight few could have expected to be competitive.  I just get the feeling Franklin isn’t quite as good as so many people think.  He certainly has submission skills (those escapes against Shamrock and armbar wins over Rivera, Yan Pellerin and Marvin Eastman) but Tanner has excellent submission awareness.  Franklin can certainly be hurt, as the Machida and Rivera fights clearly showed.  He was also heavily rocked by French striker Antony Rea in their fight before turning it around and scoring a TKO win.  Tanner was hurt by Baroni, memorably KO’ed by a Tito Ortiz slam in just 30 seconds and TKO’ed in Pancrase by Leon Dijk.  Both men have excellent wrestling skills and are intelligent fighters adept at coming up with a winning gameplan.  Tanner is often a slow starter and if Franklin hurts him early, as he did the first time, there’s a good chance this will be over quickly.  But really, the key is how Franklin will handle cutting to middleweight and facing someone who has mastered the art of boiling his huge frame down to 185.  Many have overstated Franklin’s supposed lethargy against Rivera (the Puerto Rican is a strong, skilled fighter) basing much of it on his gaunt appearance.  Still, Tanner does seem to handle the weight cutting better and if he can get the early advantage, then like Franklin, he’ll be merciless in going for the finish.  Stamina will be vital too since, although I can’t imagine this going five rounds, both men have a very physically demanding style, with the wrestling, dirty boxing and knees in the clinch.  It’s a tough fight to pick and since I’m a big fan I’m going to use a little hopeful bias and go for Tanner by TKO.  I think both will wear each other down with strikes, both will have their moments grappling but eventually Tanner will be able to trap a tiring Franklin against the fence and start unloading.

PREDICTION: Tanner by TKO late in the third.

UFC Interim Heavyweight title: Andrei Arlovski (Champion) vs. Justin Eilers (Challenger)

Well, Eilers always has a puncher’s chance and will come out swinging.  That is until Arlovski pounds him into the dust before roaring his head off and charging around the cage like a man possessed.  And that’s really the best you can say for this fight as Justin Eilers (9-3-1) gets an unexpected, and thoroughly undeserved shot at Arlovski’s sort-of title.  Eilers is a good, entertaining fighter but in his last match at UFC 51 he was completely outclassed.  Paul Buentello used his fast hands and far superior striking technique to patiently, calmly and repeatedly punish Eilers until delivering a very impressive knockout late in the first.  Prior to that Eilers’ only previous losses were by decision to Dan Severn late in 2002 and seven months later when he was on the wrong end of what is widely regarded as a hometown decision to ‘Cabbage’ Correira in Hawaii.  The heavy-handed Eilers has KO’ed or TKO’ed a string of fighters on the small time scene, as well as pounded out a couple of submissions with his fists.  Eilers has battered experienced fighters like Jonathan Ivey and Vince Lucero as well as an emphatic KO of college roommate Mike Kyle at UFC 49.  In that one Eilers survived some low blows and whacked Kyle out with a perfect left hook.  But beyond that, Eilers has faced some pretty weak opponents.  And has certainly never fought anyone who could prepare him for Arlovski.  A further question mark lurking over this fight is Eilers’ recent break from the Miletich camp.  In a recent interview he complained of being overtrained for the Buentello fight and has been working mainly with Jeremy Horn in Utah to prepare for this one.  Nobody really knows what impact this will have on his performance but few people will expect him to last the first round, much less win.

Andrei Arlovski’s (7-3) career didn’t exactly start well.  KO’ed in his debut by the barking mad Viacheslav Datsik at the M-1 World Championship in 1999, Arlovski returned exactly a year later for the same promotion’s European Championships, again in St. Petersburg, Russia.  This time the man from Minsk, Belarus was unstoppable.  Fighting twice, Arlovski clocked up a mere 2:43 of combined fighting time as he choked out Belgian striker Michael Tielrooy and battered the very capable, but inexperienced at the time, Roman Zentsov with punches.  Since then Arlovski has fought exclusively for the UFC and although still young, is one of the promotion’s longest serving fighters, predating current owners Zuffa.  In his UFC debut Arlovski had little trouble armbarring Aaron Brink in 55 seconds but, seven months later at UFC 32 faced UFC newcomer Ricco Rodriguez.  Arlovski has since claimed he took the fight lightly and, new to America, spent most of his time partying.  Whatever happened, he looked flat, tired easily and was rescued from a beating by the referee early in the third round.  Nine months on and Arlovski faced Pedro Rizzo at UFC 36, being hit with a beautiful jab/right straight combination for a sudden, sudden third round knockout.  Prior to that Arlovski had fought well, standing all the way with one of the sport’s most dangerous strikers in an absorbing tactical fight.  The only real negative prior to the finish had been his inability to really exploit his height and reach advantages and effectively defend against Rizzo’s heavy leg kicks.  The fight was certainly a valuable learning experience though and in his next outing, Arlovski kicked off a seriously impressive 4 fight winning streak.

First, he destroyed Ian Freeman at UFC 40, wasted Vladimir Matyushenko at UFC 44, thoroughly outclassed ‘Cabbage’ Correira at UFC 47 and walked through Tim Sylvia at UFC 51.  And all in a combined time of time 10:41.  To use a cheesy old cliché, Arlovski, doesn’t get paid by the hour.  Even more impressive was the way Arlovski won those fights.  He simply overwhelmed Freeman, who was coming off his stunning upset win over Frank Mir, in just 85 seconds.  Expertly setting up his shots with leg kicks he swarmed all over the Englishman, simply giving him no time or space to recover to score an emphatic win.  Against Matyushenko, he used his size, strength, reach and a great sprawl to continually stuff takedown attempts by a World-class wrestler before finishing off his countryman with a perfect right uppercut in 2:14.  At UFC 47 against ‘Cabbage’ he used his excellent kickboxing to batter the willing Hawaiian throughout the first round, scoring with hard leg kicks and putting together fast, accurate combinations.  Early in the second, he seriously rocked Cabbage with a vicious barrage of punches by the fence, then floored him with a 3 punch combination, prompting the referee to wave the fight off.  Many cried ‘early stoppage’ but significantly Cabbage, battered, tired and bleeding from the nose and ear, made no complaints.  Ten months later, Arlovski finally got his crack at the title, albeit the vacant interim version.  And he needed just 47 seconds to claim it.  Dropping Tim Sylvia with a huge right hand, he followed up with punches on the ground, but with the big man moving his head and defending with arms and legs nothing got through.  So, using his Sambo skills for the first time in a long while, Arlovski simply grabbed a leg and worked for a footlock, quickly scoring the submission win.  Clearly, Eilers just isn’t in the same class as the Belarussian.  Arlovski is taller, heavier, has better submission skills, and is a faster, possibly harder and certainly more accurate puncher.  Eilers will make an entertaining opponent and the fight should be plenty of fun while it lasts but realistically there is only going to be one outcome.

PREDICTION: Arlovski by KO in the first round.

Forrest Griffin vs. Bill Mahood

‘The Ultimate Fighter’ Griffin (10-2), winner of the most watched fight in UFC history gets his first outing on pay-per-view and the company must be desperately hoping he picks up a win to keep the momentum going for the inevitable rematch of his classic with Stephan Bonnar.  British Columbia’s Mahood (11-2-1) stands in his way.  And hopefully he’ll last longer than the 15 or 21 (it varies according to the source) seconds he lasted with Patrick Cote in his last outing over a year ago.  Prior to that loss Mahood had some pretty good results, TKO’ing faded RINGS veteran Chris Haseman, as well as Yan Pellerin and Tom Sauer.  But recent inactivity, and the simple fact he’s facing a better, more well-rounded fighter who has faced stiffer opposition and fought on the bigger stage all point to a loss for ‘The Butcher’ in his UFC debut.  Mahood is certainly a good, willing striker but, as that wild slugfest with Bonnar showed, it’ll take more than that to stop Griffin.

While Griffin may seem like a fresh face to many, he’s actually been around since late 2001, losing a decision to Dan Severn in his professional debut.  Griffin then won 6 in a row, mainly fighting in his adopted home state of Georgia but also travelling to Florida, South Africa and New Mexico.  Along the way, he beat Jeff Monson and Travis Fulton before flying down to Brazil for the first Heat Fighting Championships (HFC) in July 2003.  Griffin came home with a surprise submission win over Luta Livre veteran, Ebenezer Fontes Braga.  Choking out the experienced Braga, who started out on the wild, bareknuckle Brazilian scene in the mid-1990s, in less than 4 minutes was a fantastic result.  Just 5 weeks later he headed to Denver for the last major one-night tournament in North American MMA.  With a line-up featuring Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral, Jeremy Horn, Chael Sonnen, Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua and Trevor Prangley the IFC Global Domination was absolutely rammed with talent, and Griffin performed admirably.  First he triangled Sonnen in the opening round and was giving Horn some serious trouble before being KO’ed with a high kick, the only stoppage loss of Griffin’s career.  Three months later, Griffin was back in Natal, Brazil for HFC2, KO’ing Edson Paredao, despite a broken arm.  On ‘The Ultimate Fighter’, Griffin fought twice, showing off a real killer instinct as he finished off Alex Schoenauer (after a shaky start) and Sam Hogar inside the distance to bag an extra $10,000 in bonuses before squaring off with Bonnar in the live light heavyweight final.  A wild brawl, Griffin may have been a little lucky to get the decision in a close, compelling fight where both men fought on through exhaustion and both were on the verge of defeat numerous times.

Andrei Arlovski may be sharing poster space with Tanner and Franklin for the marketing of this show, but the jug eared Griffin is already better known than the Belarussian heavyweight.  His first pay-per-view outing should, if Zuffa have any sense whatsoever (and remember, for every masterstroke they pull something cretinous usually follows) be pushed as one of the main selling points.  On the back of his exposure on The Ultimate Fighter, the likeable Griffin has a legitimate shot at being one of the sport’s few genuine stars.  Indeed, more people watched his fight than stuck around for the Franklin-Shamrock main event.  Add in the numbers who, boosted by word of mouth about the quality of his fight on April 9th, tuned in for the replays and its safe to say a good 6 million people sat in front of their TV screens and marvelled at Griffin and Bonnar.  That’s well over ten times the number of people that would normally see a UFC fight.  By the way, Zuffa have been floating around a figure of 10 million but that’s really a nice sounding PR soundbite achieved through some mathematical trickery.  Numbers aside, I’m expecting Griffin to win this one in crowd pleasing style, mixing up some of his trademark all-out striking with groundwork.  Mahood loves to strike from bell to bell and could be dangerous standing but the ground game is really where Griffin holds some significant advantages over the Canadian.

PREDICTION: Griffin by submission late in the first.

Matt Serra vs. Karo Parisyan

Serra (5-3) makes his first appearance at welterweight against rising star Parisyan (13-3) in a fascinating BJJ v. Judo clash.  Serra, the first American to earn a black belt under Renzo Gracie and holds a BJJ rules victory over Jean-Jacques Machado.  Parisyan is a Pan-American games gold medallist and winner of 6 National Junior titles who trains under the almost mythical Gokor Chivichiyan.  It’s pretty safe to say this one is going to the mat.  Both men have raw, uncultured striking, with Parisyan a particularly wild and inaccurate puncher.  And while both men have excellent, though very different submission skills, this one is almost certain to go the distance.  Neither is likely to catch the other with a submission, as both are so highly skilled at it.  Also, Serra’s last 4 fights have gone to the judges, as have Parisyan’s.  Still, it should be a great fight as both are busy on the ground, and always push their opponents with an extremely high, all-action pace.

Looking at those last few fights a few interesting points emerge.  Firstly, Serra lost a unanimous decision to BJ Penn at UFC 39.  Penn took the first but Serra came back well, making the second an extremely close one.  In the third, with both men very tired, Penn was able to use his reach advantage to counterpunch and his grappling skills and balance to stop Serra’s repeated takedowns.  At UFC 41, Serra dropped another one, this time to Din Thomas.  Again the squat, powerful Serra couldn’t cope with his opponent’s height and reach.  It didn’t help that he simply kept trying the same thing over and over again either and Thomas sprawled and counterpunched his way to a close, but deserved win.  At UFC 46, Serra dominated Jeff Curran but simply couldn’t put him away.  The Long Island native instead controlled everything on the mat to walk away with a very, very clear decision win.  In his last fight, at UFC 48 he had much more trouble with Ivan Menjivar.  An excellent technical fight packed with reversals and submission attempts, Serra got the decision due to his takedowns and ground control.  Menjivar was tough though, constantly going for submissions, even coming close with an audacious Kimura late in the second.

As for Parisyan, after a dominant UFC debut where he Kimura’d Dave Strasser, he faced Georges St. Pierre at UFC 46.  The French Canadian was simply too strong for the Armenian-American though.  St. Pierre neatly defended against Parisyan’s constant submission attempts and used elbows and punches on the floor to grind out a clear decision.  Parisyan rebounded from that with a dominant win over Shonie Carter at WEC 10.  Then, at UFC 49 he squeaked past Nick Diaz, thanks mainly to his strength and determination he was able to take Diaz down, force the pace and control the action on the mat.  Standing up, Parisyan was clearly vulnerable but he still did enough for the victory.  And most recently, he was a clear winner over Chris Lytle at UFC 51.  And I think he’ll take this fight too.  Parisyan is naturally bigger, he’s 4 inches taller, younger and has been more active and faced better competition (including two fights, both losses with Sean Sherk).  At his height Serra will struggle at welterweight and his striking will hold him back as well.  It will be close, but Parisyan should take this by decision.

PREDICTION: Parisyan by unanimous decision.

Nick Diaz vs. Koji Oishi

Few should expect Nick Diaz, (10-3) to lose this fight.  He looked tremendous against Drew Fickett at UFC 51, scoring a TKO win late in the first round.  At UFC 49 he dropped a painfully close split decision to fellow rising star Karo Parisyan in a gruelling fight where both men constantly exchanged submission attempts, takedowns and wild, sloppy strikes.  Close enough to have gone either way, it was Parisyan’s ability to take down and control Diaz that earned him the decision.  At UFC 47 Diaz had used his height, reach, undeservedly underrated striking and his weird southpaw stance to outstrike Robbie Lawler for a stunning KO win.  And in his UFC debut, he sweetly armbarred old rival Jeremy Jackson.  Diaz’ only other losses have been to Jackson and on a very close decision in Shooto to Kuniyoshi Hironaka in late 2002.  I’m not expecting Oishi to add his name to that very short list.  For all his arrogance and, looking at the Parisyan fight, what may be some stamina problems, Diaz is a special talent.  He’s beaten Jorge ‘Macaco’ Patino in no-Gi grappling, submitted the talented Joe Hurley and beaten Chris Lytle.  With his height, talent and the help of training partners like David Terrell, Gil Castillo, Gilbert Melendez and Jake Shields, Diaz is already one of the very best welterweights on the American scene.  He’s simply too good for Oishi.

Few will remember it, but this is actually Oishi’s second UFC appearance.  He dropped a decision, in his MMA debut, in the opening match of UFC 25 to LaVerne Clark.  Now, 5 years on, Oishi (11-3-3) and a member of the PANCRASEism team, is back.  Shorter by four inches, a little lighter and several years older, Oishi doesn’t physically match up too well with the ‘confident’ Cesar Gracie prodigy.  However, Oishi trains and has trained with some of the best and most experienced fighters in Pancrase, including Yuki Kondo, Kiuma Kunioku, Osami Shibuya and Takafumi Ito.  In the ring (this will be Oishi’s first cage fight since his debut in 2000), Oishi is a survivor, but also a poor finisher.  Just 3 of his fights, all in his last 3 appearances, have ended inside the distance.  Oishi is 2-1 in those last 3 contests, with his two TKO wins coming against fairly ordinary opposition and his only loss, through an injury picked up from a toehold by the larger, but still fairly nondescript Hidehiko Hasegawa.  Fully 9 of his wins have been via decision, including a split decision over Chris Lytle and early last year Oishi drew with ever improving former Olympian and Team Quest fighter, Heath Sims.  The fact Oishi has never actually tapped out a professional opponent doesn’t bode well for his chances for a grappler with the skills of Diaz.  Basically, Oishi is a typical Pancrase mid-carder – a tough, well-trained, well-conditioned all-rounder likely to lose to a really special fighter.  Diaz is capable of being just such a fighter and I expect him to win this one.  And be the first man to actually make Oishi tap out.

PREDICTION: Diaz by submission late in the second

David Loiseau vs. Charles McCarthy

Montreal’s David Loiseau (12-4) makes his fourth UFC appearance against first timer and submission specialist, ‘Chainsaw’ McCarthy.  ‘The Crow’ is a very, very good fighter with decisions over Curtis Stout and Joe Doerksen, as well as stopping Tony Fryklund (a horrific cut) and Mark Weir, with a brutal KO from the Englishman’s guard at UFC 42.  Aside from two losses early in his career Loiseau has only been beaten by Jorge Rivera in a war of attrition at UFC 44 and Jeremy Horn with a very quick guillotine choke submission in early 2004.  Loiseau trains regularly with Georges St. Pierre, is a well-rounded, experienced fighter with fast hands and vicious elbows which he uses in the clinch to open up cuts (see Rivera and Fryklund).  Loiseau is also coming off a commanding performance at UFC 51 against late substitute Gideon Ray and a win here could put him in contention for a Middleweight title shot.

Florida’s Charles ‘Chainsaw’ McCarthy (8-2) comes into this fight with a reputation for tapping out his opponents.  All 8 wins have been via submission and he’s clearly no one trick pony either, winning with chokes, armbars, Kimuras and heel hooks.  His only losses came by a close decision against American Top Team member Marcel Ferreira in Januray 2004 and, just a month later when he tapped to heavy punishment from Team Scandinavia’s little known but impressive David Bielkheden.  However, aside from an armbar win over Keith Rockel (a decent fighter who looked good in his only UFC appearance in November 2003) McCarthy’s submission streak has come against some pretty limited opponents.  Discounting Rockel, ‘Chainsaw’s victims have a combined record of just 10-20, all at much lower levels than Loiseau has been operating at.  The Rockel win indicates McCarthy should not be underestimated and is perfectly capable of snatching a surprise submission win but as long as Loiseau stays focused and mindful of the American’s ground game, ‘The Crow’ should be able to stop McCarthy with some of those nasty elbows and big punches.

PREDICTION: Loiseau by TKO midway through the second round.

Nathan Quarry vs. Shonie Carter

And so to another pay-per-view debut for an Ultimate Fighter contestant.  Long time Team Quest member Quarry (6-1) was injured during the filming of the series so didn’t actually fight until giving Lodune Sincaid a pasting on the untelevised undercard of the finale.  From live accounts, Quarry was very impressive in his first match since October 2003, overwhelming Sincaid with punches for a pretty one-sided win.  Few of Quarry’s previous wins have come against quality opposition but he performed well in his only loss, going the distance with the highly talented Gustavo ‘Ximu’ Machado.  32-year old Quarry, as you’d expect from a student of Randy Couture and training partner of the likes of Matt Lindland and Heath Sims is a very effective grappler who backs up his skills with good hands and decent submissions.  However, his major league debut comes against a very tough, vastly experienced UFC, Pancrase, WEC, KOTC, Shooto and Superbrawl veteran.

‘Mr. International’ Shonie Carter (29-12-6) certainly deserves his nickname.  Travelling the world to fight in the mainland US, Hawaii, Russia, the UK and Japan, Carter has fought almost 7 times as many professional fights as Quarry.  But the continual training, travelling and fighting is likely to have taken a toll on the 33-year old.  Could Quarry be catching Carter at the right stage of his career?  Quarry will have advantages in wrestling, training partners and size (Quarry is an established middleweight, while Carter has fought much of his career around welterweight).  Carter is far from a shot fighter though.  Since the start of 2003 he’s amassed a 10-6 record, beating decent fighters like Jess Liaudin, John Cronk, Jody Poff and JT Taylor while dropping decisions to the likes of Karo Parisyan, Ronald Jhun and Jeremy Jackson.  Notice that none of those three could finish him off inside the distance.  Between his 1997 debut and the end of 2002, Carter went 19-6-6 and scored wins over Dave Menne, Matt Serra (that unforgettable spinning backfist KO in a fight he was clearly losing at UFC 31) and Chris Lytle.  Carter also went the distance or drew with the likes of Jhun, Kiuma Kunioku (draws), Nathan Marqardt and Pat Miletich (losses).  While Carter is past his best these days he remains a dangerous striker and this is a stiff test for Quarry.  I’m expecting him to win, but it certainly won’t be easy and I doubt he’ll be able to finish Carter inside the distance.

PREDICTION: Quarry by split decision.

Paul Buentello vs. Kevin Jordan

Bizarrely enough, in the night’s other heavyweight match-up, the man who actually KO’ed Justin Eilers so memorably at UFC 51 finds himself on the undercard, facing UFC newcomer Kevin Jordan.  Four months ago, in his own UFC debut Paul Buentello (17-7) extended his winning streak to 5 fights (he’s now won 9 of his last 10) peppering Eilers with counter-punches before sparking him out in style late in the first round.  Unfortunately the former KOTC title holder broke his wrist along the way but it was a promotional desire to build up his fan base, rather than the injury, that led Zuffa to look elsewhere for a first sacrificial lamb for Arlovski.  It seems like a smart move to try and protect the bilingual Mexican-American puncher, particularly since Zuffa insist on clinging to their convenient fiction – despite all evidence to the contrary – that UFC fans are also boxing fans and boxing is being carried by the Hispanic audience.  Buentello (an American Kickboxing Academy teammate of Mike Kyle, Josh Thomson and formerly Daniel Puder – remember him?) was certainly impressive against Eilers but losses to fighters like Sam Sotello and Nate Schroeder seem to indicate he’s not going to set UFC’s admittedly depleted heavyweight scene alight.  Buentello can certainly put on an entertaining show though.  He’ll lose to the likes of Arlovski and Mir but should be able to get past the likes of Jordan and look good in the process.

Columbus, Georgia’s Kevin Jordan (6-2) lost the first two fights of his career (to ‘Cabbage’ Correira and Travis Wiuff) before reeling off a 6 fight win streak that dates back to January 2003.  He was also armbarred by Forrest Griffin in an amateur fight way back in 2001.  However, those 6 opponents (one of whom fights at middleweight) have a combined record of 41-38.  And the only really recognisable names are Kerry ‘Meat Truck’ Schall and 43 year old John Dixon.  Jordan is big and powerful, should be in shape for his big opportunity and has some good Ground n’ Pound technique.  But the more seasoned Buentello will be able to keep the fight standing and use his greater experience and neat striking skills to punish the younger man for another stoppage win.

PREDICTION: Buentello by TKO early in the second.